Accurate Trajectory Prediction Research Articles

STIA-DJANet: Spatial–Temporal Intention-Aware vessel trajectory prediction based on Dual-Joint Attention Network for e-navigation

Harnessing high-precision vessel trajectory prediction holds great promise for enhancing autonomous and safe navigation towards e-navigation. However, many technical researchers and maritime managers realize that only accurate prediction of vessel trajectory is insufficient, extraction and recognition of navigation intentions from vessel around is still crucial issue and gap in current prediction models. In response to solve this shortcoming, we propose an intention-aware model for vessel trajectory prediction, which leverages both of spatial–temporal intentions and dual joint attentions network, namely STIA-DJANet. First, the double intentions of spatial–temporal aware is designed to extract the social relationships between the own vessel trajectory and neighboring trajectories at each timestamp, effectively capturing dynamic changes in their interactions. Second, feature fusion of dual joint attentions for double intentions is proposed to extract navigation features from the intention-aware module, which can be integrated into trajectory prediction. In experiments, numerical results and comparisons on three real-world datasets demonstrate that our framework outperforms state-of-the-art models in terms of the average displacement error (ADE) and final displacement error (FDE) metrics. The average improvements were 42.852% and 44.726%, respectively. Reliable prediction results can significantly advance the development of e-navigation systems development.

A Novel WTG Method for Predicting Ship Trajectories in the Fujian Inshore Area Based on AIS Data

The increasing congestion in major global maritime routes poses significant threats to international maritime safety, exacerbated by the proliferation of large, high-speed vessels. To improve the detection of abnormal ship behavior, this research employed automatic identification system (AIS) data for ship trajectory forecasting. Traditional methods primarily focus on spatial and temporal correlations but often lack accuracy and reliability. In this study, ship path predictions were enhanced using the WTG model, which combines wavelet transform, temporal convolutional networks (TCN), and gated recurrent units (GRU). Initially, wavelet decomposition was applied to deconstruct the input trajectory time series. The TCN and GRU modules then extracted features from both the time series and the decomposed data. The predicted elements were reassembled using a multi-head attention mechanism and a pooling layer to produce the final predictions. Comparative experiments demonstrated that the WTG model surpasses other models in the accuracy of ship trajectory prediction. The model proposed in this study proves to be reliable for forecasting ship paths, which is crucial for marine traffic management and ensuring safe navigation.

SISGAN: A Generative Adversarial Network Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction Model Combining Interaction Information and Scene Information

Accurate pedestrian trajectory prediction is crucial in many fields. This requires the full use and learning of pedestrians’ social interactions, movements, and environmental information. In view of the current research on pedestrian trajectory prediction, wherein most of the pedestrian interaction information is explored from the level of overall interaction, this paper proposes the SISGAN model, which designs a social interaction module from the perspective of the target pedestrian, and takes four kinds of interaction information as the influencing factors of pedestrian interaction, so as to describe the influence mechanism of pedestrian–pedestrian interaction. In addition, in terms of environmental information, the index density of pedestrian historical trajectory in space is taken into account in the extraction of environmental information, which increases the potential correlation between environmental information and pedestrians. Finally, we integrate social interaction information and environmental information and make the final trajectory prediction based on GAN. Experiments on ETH and UCY datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the SISGAN model proposed in this paper.

Counterfactual-based two-stage trajectory prediction framework for autonomous vehicle navigation systems

Abstract Accurate prediction of a vehicle’s trajectory is essential for autonomous driving and robotic operations in a complex, dynamic environment. However, current methods that rely on historical and environmental cues to predict future trajectories make the inner distance between testing and training environments often overlooked. To address this issue, we propose a counterfactual analysis method specifically designed for vehicle trajectory prediction. We begin by constructing a causal graph that includes historical trajectories, future trajectories, and environmental interactions. This graph captures the causal relationships between these elements. Our approach directly intervenes on the trajectory itself, effectively cutting off the inference from the environment to the trajectory. By doing so, we mitigate the negative impact of environmental bias. Furthermore, by comparing observed and intervened trajectory clues, we highlight the influence of environmental distance. Our goal is to improve the accuracy of trajectory prediction. Our counterfactual analysis module integrates seamlessly into various baseline prediction models. Experimental data demonstrates that our method outperforms others on publicly available Argoverse2 motion forecasting benchmarks.

Typhoon Trajectory Prediction by Three CNN+ Deep-Learning Approaches

The accuracy in predicting the typhoon track can be key to minimizing their frequent disastrous effects. This article aims to study the accuracy of typhoon trajectory prediction obtained by combining several algorithms based on current deep-learning techniques. The combination of a Convolutional Neural Network with Long Short-Term Memory (CNN+LSTM), Patch Time-Series Transformer (CNN+PatchTST) and Transformer (CNN+Transformer) were the models chosen for this work. These algorithms were tested on the best typhoon track data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ERA5 data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and structured meteorological data from the Zhuhai Meteorological Bureau (ZMB) as an extension of existing studies that were based only on public data sources. The experimental results were obtained by testing two complete years of data (2021 and 2022), as an alternative to the frequent selection of a small number of typhoons in several years. Using the R-squared metric, results were obtained as significant as CNN+LSTM (0.991), CNN+PatchTST (0.989) and CNN+Transformer (0.969). CNN+LSTM without ZMB data can only obtain 0.987, i.e., 0.004 less than 0.991. Overall, our findings indicate that appropriately augmenting data near land and ocean boundaries around the coast improves typhoon track prediction.

Vessel Trajectory Prediction Based on Automatic Identification System Data: Multi-Gated Attention Encoder Decoder Network

Utilizing time-series data from ship trajectories to forecast their subsequent movement is crucial for enhancing the safety within maritime traffic environments. The application of deep learning techniques, leveraging Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, has emerged as a pivotal area in maritime traffic studies. Within this domain, the precise forecasting of ship trajectories stands as a central challenge. In this study, we propose the multi-gated attention encoder decoder (MGAED) network, a model based on an encoder–decoder structure specialized for predicting ship trajectories in canals. The model employs a long short-term memory network (LSTM) as an encoder, combined with multiple Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs) and an attention mechanism for the decoder. Long-term dependencies in time-series data are captured through GRUs, while the attention mechanism is used to strengthen the model’s ability to capture key information, and a soft threshold residual structure is introduced to handle sparse features, thus enhancing the model’s generalization ability and robustness. The efficacy of our model is substantiated by an extensive evaluation against current deep learning benchmarks. Through comprehensive comparison experiments with existing deep learning methods, our model shows significant improvements in prediction accuracy, with an at least 9.63% reduction in the mean error (MAE) and an at least 20.0% reduction in the mean square error (MSE), providing a new solution to improve the accuracy and efficiency of ship trajectory prediction.

A Brain-Inspired Decision-Making method for upper limb exoskeleton based on Multi-Brain-Region structure and multimodal information fusion

For the challenges faced by upper limb exoskeleton in meeting human motion intention, this article proposes a novel brain-inspired decision-making model based on multi-brain-region information transmission mechanism and multimodal information fusion method to provide accurate prediction of motion trajectory. Firstly, a multimodal information perception and fusion method is proposed. Based on surface electromyographic (sEMG) signals and angle signals collected by sensors. Then a random forest algorithm is applied to screen the key features of sEMG signal for trajectory prediction. A multimodal information hierarchical fusion method based on dual-period mechanism is designed to solve the problem of fusion defect of information with different frequency. Finally, a multi-brain-region decision-making model based on hybrid hierarchical liquid state machine (HHLSM) is established to predict motion trajectory for the exoskeleton to meet human motion intention. Experiments show that the established model has a high computational efficiency and improves the effectiveness of exoskeleton assistance. The brain-inspired decision-making model based on HHLSM established in this paper is of great significance for further research on brain-inspired control and improving the human-robot interaction effect of upper limb exoskeleton.

A New Accurate Aircraft Trajectory Prediction in Terminal Airspace Based on Spatio-Temporal Attention Mechanism

Trajectory prediction serves as a prerequisite for future trajectory-based operation, significantly reducing the uncertainty of aircraft movement information within airspace by scientifically forecasting the three-dimensional positions of aircraft over a certain period. As convergence points in the aviation network, airport terminal airspace exhibits the most complex traffic conditions in the entire air route network. It has stronger mutual influences and interactions among aircraft compared to the en-route phase. Current research typically uses the trajectory time series information of a single aircraft as input for subsequent predictions. However, it often lacks consideration of the close-range spatial interactions between multiple aircraft in the terminal airspace. This results in a gap in the study of aircraft trajectory prediction that couples spatiotemporal features. This paper aims to predict the four-dimensional trajectories of aircraft in terminal airspace, constructing a Spatio-Temporal Transformer (ST-Transformer) prediction model based on temporal and spatial attention mechanisms. Using radar aircraft trajectory data from the Guangzhou Baiyun Airport terminal airspace, the results indicate that the proposed ST-Transformer model has a smaller prediction error compared to mainstream deep learning prediction models. This demonstrates that the model can better integrate the temporal sequence correlation of trajectory features and the potential spatial interaction information among trajectories for accurate prediction.

TrajectoryNAS: A Neural Architecture Search for Trajectory Prediction.

Autonomous driving systems are a rapidly evolving technology. Trajectory prediction is a critical component of autonomous driving systems that enables safe navigation by anticipating the movement of surrounding objects. Lidar point-cloud data provide a 3D view of solid objects surrounding the ego-vehicle. Hence, trajectory prediction using Lidar point-cloud data performs better than 2D RGB cameras due to providing the distance between the target object and the ego-vehicle. However, processing point-cloud data is a costly and complicated process, and state-of-the-art 3D trajectory predictions using point-cloud data suffer from slow and erroneous predictions. State-of-the-art trajectory prediction approaches suffer from handcrafted and inefficient architectures, which can lead to low accuracy and suboptimal inference times. Neural architecture search (NAS) is a method proposed to optimize neural network models by using search algorithms to redesign architectures based on their performance and runtime. This paper introduces TrajectoryNAS, a novel neural architecture search (NAS) method designed to develop an efficient and more accurate LiDAR-based trajectory prediction model for predicting the trajectories of objects surrounding the ego vehicle. TrajectoryNAS systematically optimizes the architecture of an end-to-end trajectory prediction algorithm, incorporating all stacked components that are prerequisites for trajectory prediction, including object detection and object tracking, using metaheuristic algorithms. This approach addresses the neural architecture designs in each component of trajectory prediction, considering accuracy loss and the associated overhead latency. Our method introduces a novel multi-objective energy function that integrates accuracy and efficiency metrics, enabling the creation of a model that significantly outperforms existing approaches. Through empirical studies, TrajectoryNAS demonstrates its effectiveness in enhancing the performance of autonomous driving systems, marking a significant advancement in the field. Experimental results reveal that TrajcetoryNAS yields a minimum of 4.8 higger accuracy and 1.1* lower latency over competing methods on the NuScenes dataset.

Reservoir Computing for Drone Trajectory Intent Prediction: A Physics Informed Approach.

The design of accurate trajectory prediction algorithms is crucial to implement adequate countermeasures against drones with anomalous performances. Wrong predictions may cause high-false-positives that compromise safety in national infrastructures. In this article, a physics informed reservoir computing (PIRC) scheme for drone trajectory prediction is proposed. The approach is comprised of two main complementary learning algorithms that enhance the prediction and generalization capabilities: 1) a standard reservoir computing scheme for high-dimensional encoding exploitation and 2) a nonlinear control scheme that gives a physical feedback to the reservoir weights to ensure the prediction error is minimized. The nonlinear control scheme is modeled by the prediction error dynamics and a feedback linearization controller. Two different PIRC schemes are proposed which preserve the reservoir properties and enhance the prediction robustness. Lyapunov stability theory is used to verify the boundedness and convergence of the proposed algorithms. Simulation studies and comparisons are given to verify the proposed approach.

Interaction aware and multi-modal distribution for ship trajectory prediction with spatio-temporal crisscross hybrid network

Understanding the interactions between a ship and its surrounding ships enables effective trajectory prediction, which is critical to improving the safe navigation of autonomous ships. The prediction of future trajectories is a very challenging problem due to inherent uncertainties and complex spatiotemporal correlations between different ships. However, existing methods ignore the persistence and cross-domain nature of the influence between ships. To address the above challenges, an adaptive learning framework based on spatio-temporal crisscross hybrid network (STCNet) is proposed, which consists of two parts: spatio-temporal interaction aware and multi-modal trajectory prediction. Modeling temporal-dependent features, spatial interaction features and cross-domain features, and performs adaptive fusion to identify important features and capture all dynamic dependencies. Secondly, most methods only focus on the frequent modes of trajectories and cannot cover the actual paths of limited samples. Therefore, we design an augmented sampling method based on fusion knowledge and graph attention mechanism (KGS) to encourage exploration of trajectories in sparse areas of the sample space, and promote more accurate and reasonable future trajectory prediction. Experiments on the Ningbo-Zhoushan Port sea area dataset show that our method achieves better results than other methods.

An integrated framework for accurate trajectory prediction based on deep learning

An integrated framework for accurate trajectory prediction based on deep learning

Impact of Perception Errors in Vision-Based Detection and Tracking Pipelines on Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction in Autonomous Driving Systems.

Pedestrian trajectory prediction is crucial for developing collision avoidance algorithms in autonomous driving systems, aiming to predict the future movement of the detected pedestrians based on their past trajectories. The traditional methods for pedestrian trajectory prediction involve a sequence of tasks, including detection and tracking to gather the historical movement of the observed pedestrians. Consequently, the accuracy of trajectory prediction heavily relies on the accuracy of the detection and tracking models, making it susceptible to their performance. The prior research in trajectory prediction has mainly assessed the model performance using public datasets, which often overlook the errors originating from detection and tracking models. This oversight fails to capture the real-world scenario of inevitable detection and tracking inaccuracies. In this study, we investigate the cumulative effect of errors within integrated detection, tracking, and trajectory prediction pipelines. Through empirical analysis, we examine the errors introduced at each stage of the pipeline and assess their collective impact on the trajectory prediction accuracy. We evaluate these models across various custom datasets collected in Taiwan to provide a comprehensive assessment. Our analysis of the results derived from these integrated pipelines illuminates the significant influence of detection and tracking errors on downstream tasks, such as trajectory prediction and distance estimation.

Spatio-Temporal-Interaction Graph Neural Networks for Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction

Abstract For intelligent transportation systems, accurately forecasting the future trajectories of multiple agents is pivotal. Considering the increased diversity of agents within a scene, in order to capture and model the variations in their appearance, motion status, behavioral patterns, and interrelationships, we propose a simple yet effective framework based on Spatio-Temporal-Interaction Graph Neural Networks. Specifically, a Multi-Class Agent Encoder is meticulously tailored to the specific class of each agent to distill pertinent information from their motion attributes and historical trajectories. Subsequently, a Spatio-Temporal-Interaction Graph Attention Module is constructed to productively represent and learn the complex, dynamic interactions. Finally, a Multimodal Trajectory Generation Module is customized, and a learnable diversity sampling function is introduced to map the features of each agent to a set of potential variables, so as to capture the multimodal distribution of future trajectories. Empirical evaluations on the ETH/UCY and KITTI datasets reveal that our method can efficiently improve the accuracy of trajectory prediction.

Study on intelligent anti-occlusion tracking algorithm for infrared ground targets

In response to the issue of infrared ground target tracking failure caused by background occlusion, a novel anti-occlusion tracker for infrared ground targets is proposed based on an enhanced trajectory prediction network. Initially, an occlusion assessment criterion is proposed to accurately assess the occlusion status of infrared ground targets. Subsequently, enhancements are made to the BiTrap trajectory prediction network. On one hand, velocity information is introduced through a Siamese network structure, adopting a unidirectional prediction method, building the SiamTrap trajectory prediction network that improves trajectory prediction accuracy. On the other hand, refining both the training and application methods enables more precise predictions of ground target trajectories. For short-term occlusion, the SiamTrap network uses temporal context information to predict the occluded position of the target. For long-term occlusion, a search expansion strategy is introduced to address prediction errors accumulated due to a lack of real target information. Finally, a "second verification" criterion is introduced, realizing accurate target capture and normal tracking. Comparative tests are conducted on infrared target tracking sequences with occlusion. Compared to baseline trackers, the proposed algorithm shows a 5.2% improvement in success rate and a 5.9% improvement in accuracy under the OPE evaluation metric. This indicates the robustness of the proposed algorithm in handling occlusion scenarios for infrared ground targets.

Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Development for Aircraft Trajectory Prediction Applications to the UAS-S4 Ehécatl

The rapid advancement of unmanned aerial systems in various civilian roles necessitates improved safety measures during their operation. A key aspect of enhancing safety is effective collision avoidance, which is based on conflict detection and is greatly aided by accurate trajectory prediction. This paper represents a novel data-driven trajectory prediction methodology based on applying the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) prediction algorithm to the UAS-S4 Ehécatl. An LSTM model was designed as the baseline and then developed into a Staked LSTM to better capture complex and hierarchical temporal trajectory patterns. Next, the Bidirectional LSTM was developed for a better understanding of the contextual trajectories from both its past and future data points, and to provide a more comprehensive temporal perspective that could enhance its accuracy. LSTM-based models were evaluated in terms of mean absolute percentage errors. The results reveal the superiority of the Bidirectional LSTM, as it could predict UAS-S4 trajectories more accurately than the Stacked LSTM. Moreover, the developed Bidirectional LSTM was compared with other state-of-the-art deep neural networks aimed at aircraft trajectory prediction. Promising results confirmed that Bidirectional LSTM exhibits the most stable MAPE across all prediction horizons.

Informer-Based Model for Long-Term Ship Trajectory Prediction

Ship trajectory prediction is a complex time series forecasting problem that necessitates models capable of accurately capturing both long-term trends and short-term fluctuations in vessel movements. While existing deep learning models excel in short-term predictions, they struggle with long-sequence time series forecasting (LSTF) due to difficulties in capturing long-term dependencies, resulting in significant prediction errors. This paper proposes the Informer-TP method, leveraging Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and based on the Informer model, to enhance the ability to capture long-term dependencies, thereby improving the accuracy of long-term ship trajectory predictions. Firstly, AIS data are preprocessed and divided into trajectory segments. Secondly, the time series is separated from the trajectory data in each segment and input into the model. The Informer model is utilized to improve long-term ship trajectory prediction ability, and the output mechanism is adjusted to enable predictions for each segment. Finally, the proposed model’s effectiveness is validated through comparisons with baseline models, and the influence of various sequence lengths Ltoken on the Informer-TP model is explored. Experimental results show that compared with other models, the proposed model exhibits the lowest Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Error, and Haversine distance in long-term forecasting, demonstrating that the model can effectively capture long-term dependencies in the trajectories, thereby improving the accuracy of long-term vessel trajectory predictions. This provides an effective and feasible method for ensuring ship navigation safety and advancing intelligent shipping.

Deep Embedding Koopman Neural Operator-Based Nonlinear Flight Training Trajectory Prediction Approach

Accurate flight training trajectory prediction is a key task in automatic flight maneuver evaluation and flight operations quality assurance (FOQA), which is crucial for pilot training and aviation safety management. The task is extremely challenging due to the nonlinear chaos of trajectories, the unconstrained airspace maps, and the randomization of driving patterns. In this work, a deep learning model based on data-driven modern koopman operator theory and dynamical system identification is proposed. The model does not require the manual selection of dictionaries and can automatically generate augmentation functions to achieve nonlinear trajectory space mapping. The model combines stacked neural networks to create a scalable depth approximator for approximating the finite-dimensional Koopman operator. In addition, the model uses finite-dimensional operator evolution to achieve end-to-end adaptive prediction. In particular, the model can gain some physical interpretability through operator visualization and generative dictionary functions, which can be used for downstream pattern recognition and anomaly detection tasks. Experiments show that the model performs well, particularly on flight training trajectory datasets.

MDSTF: a multi-dimensional spatio-temporal feature fusion trajectory prediction model for autonomous driving

In the field of autonomous driving, trajectory prediction of traffic agents is an important and challenging problem. Fully capturing the complex spatio-temporal features in trajectory data is crucial for accurate trajectory prediction. This paper proposes a trajectory prediction model called multi-dimensional spatio-temporal feature fusion (MDSTF), which integrates multi-dimensional spatio-temporal features to model the trajectory information of traffic agents. In the spatial dimension, we employ graph convolutional networks (GCN) to capture the local spatial features of traffic agents, spatial attention mechanism to capture the global spatial features, and LSTM combined with spatial attention to capture the full-process spatial features of traffic agents. Subsequently, these three spatial features are fused using a gate fusion mechanism. Moreover, during the modeling of the full-process spatial features, LSTM is capable of capturing short-term temporal dependencies in the trajectory information of traffic agents. In the temporal dimension, we utilize a Transformer-based encoder to extract long-term temporal dependencies in the trajectory information of traffic agents, which are then fused with the short-term temporal dependencies captured by LSTM. Finally, we employ two temporal convolutional networks (TCN) to predict trajectories based on the fused spatio-temporal features. Experimental results on the ApolloScape trajectory dataset demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of weighted sum of average displacement error (WSADE) and weighted sum of final displacement error (WSFDE) metrics. Compared to the best baseline model (S2TNet), our method achieves reductions of 4.37% and 6.23% respectively in these metrics.

STI-TP: A Spatio-temporal interleaved model for multi-modal trajectory prediction of heterogeneous traffic agents

Trajectory prediction for heterogeneous traffic agents in autonomous driving is a challenging and crucial task. A large amount of research has laid a solid foundation for this field. However, achieving accurate trajectory prediction remains a great challenge. In this paper, we propose a spatio-temporal interleaved model for multi-modal trajectory prediction of heterogeneous agents. The model consists of the following novel components: (1) a M̲ulti-S̲cale H̲eterogeneous A̲gent I̲nteraction E̲ncoder (MS-HAIE), which adopts different temporal receptive fields for heterogeneous agents to match their different traveling speed and enhance the model’s expressive capability. (2) a C̲ross A̲ttention-guided S̲patio-T̲emporal I̲nterleaving M̲odule (CA-STIM), which combines the trajectory interaction information and independent temporal information of agents, so as to improve the spatial-dependent modeling capability of Transformer. (3) a M̲ulti-modal T̲rajectory D̲ecoder (MTD) to capture the multi-modality of traffic agents’ trajectories and strengthen the network’s comprehension and response capabilities. Our proposed method is evaluated on the Apolloscape and the Argoverse dataset, demonstrating superior performance over other state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods with a reduction of 12.48% WSADE and 26.04% WSFDE, respectively, compared to our baseline on the Apolloscape dataset.