Accurate Observational Data Research Articles

PEMODELAN DEBIT SUNGAI MENGGUNAKAN SOIL AND WATER ASSESSMENT TOOL DI SUBDAS MAMASA

ABSTRACT
 Issues related to watershed have received primary attention in the past few decades. The hydrological conditions of the watershed area are considered crucial as a source of life. In efforts to achieve sustainable watershed management, understanding the complex hydrological dynamics is very important. The objective of this research is to simulate river discharge using the Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) model. This study was conducted in the Mamasa Sub-watershed area. The results show that the river discharge in the Mamasa Sub-watershed has increased as it approaches the outlet (downstream) through the accumulation of discharge in larger order rivers. The Mamasa Sub-watershed also experiences a trend of increasing average annual discharge at a rate of 0.74 m3/s per year. Improvement in the discharge simulation results was achieved through a calibration process using 11 parameters. The calibration results indicate that the calibrated discharge has a higher R2 value compared to the initial simulation discharge, showing that the model calibration successfully improved the quality of the expected discharge results to reach 79.50 percent. However, the calibration results still have a low R2 value, influenced by the selection of appropriate parameters and accurate observational data.
 Keywords: Modeling, River discharge, SWAT, Watershed

White dwarf spectral type-temperature distribution from Gaia DR3 and the Virtual Observatory

Context. The characterization of white dwarf atmospheres is crucial for accurately deriving stellar parameters such as effective temperature, mass, and age. However, the inclusion of physical processes such as convective mixing and convective dilution in current white dwarf atmospheric models offers a prediction of the spectral evolution of these objects. To constrain these models, accurate observational data and analyses are necessary. Aims. We aim to classify the population of white dwarfs up to 500 pc into hydrogen-rich or hydrogen-deficient atmospheres based on Gaia spectra and to derive an accurate spectral type-temperature distribution, namely, the ratio between the number of non-DAs to the total number of white dwarfs as a function of the effective temperature for the largest observed unbiased sample of these objects. Methods. We took advantage of the recent Gaia low-resolution spectra available for 76 657 white dwarfs up to 500 pc. We calculated the synthetic J-PAS narrow-band photometry and fit the spectral energy distribution of each object with up-to-date models for hydrogen-rich and helium-rich white dwarf atmospheres. We estimated the probability for a white dwarf to have a hydrogen-rich atmosphere and validated the results using the Montreal White Dwarf Database. Finally, precise effective temperature values were derived for each object using La Plata evolutionary models. Results. We successfully classified a total of 65 310 white dwarfs (57 155 newly classified objects) into DAs and non-DAs with an accuracy of 94%. An unbiased subsample of nearly 34 000 objects was built, from which we computed a precise spectral distribution spanning an effective temperature range from 5500 to 40 000 K, while accounting for potential selection effects. Conclusions. Some characteristic features of the spectral evolution, such as the deficit of helium-rich stars at Teff ≈ 35 000 − 40 000 K and in the range of 22 000 ≲ Teff ≲ 25 000 K, as well as a gradual increase from 18 000 K to Teff ≈ 7000 K, where the non-DA stars percentage reaches its maximum of 41%, followed by a decrease for cooler temperatures, are statistically significant. These findings will provide precise constraints for the proposed models of spectral evolution.

A foreground model independent estimation of joint posterior of CMB E-mode polarization over large angular scales

The advent of precision cosmology has led to a very accurate observational data. In order to extract cosmological information, we therefore need robust and accurate Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) reconstruction techniques with reliable statistical error estimates associated with them. We show the performance of our algorithm using simulations of the future Probe of Inflation and Cosmic Origins (PICO) missions. To generate samples from the joint distribution, we employ the internal linear combination (ILC) technique with prior information of CMB E-mode covariance matrix augmented by a Gibbs sampling technique of Sudevan and Saha 2020. We estimate the marginalized densities of [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] using the samples from full-posterior. The best-fit cleaned E-mode map and the corresponding angular power spectrum are consistent with the input E-mode map and the sky power spectrum implying accurate reconstruction. Using the samples [Formula: see text] of all Gibbs chains, we estimate the likelihood function [Formula: see text]) of any arbitrary [Formula: see text] given simulated observed maps (data, D) of PICO mission using a Blackwell–Rao estimator. The likelihood function can be seamlessly integrated to the cosmological parameter estimation method. Apart from producing an accurate estimate of E-mode signal over large angular scales, our method also builds a connection between the component reconstruction and reliable cosmological parameter estimation using CMB E-mode observations over large angular scales. The entire method does not assume any explicit models for E-mode foreground components in order to remove them, which is an attractive property since foreground modeling uncertainty does not pose as a challenge in this case.

Measuring Plant Attractiveness to Pollinators: Methods and Considerations.

Global pollinator declines have fostered increased public interest in creating pollinator-friendly gardens in human-managed landscapes. Indeed, studies on urban pollinator communities suggest that flower-rich greenspaces can serve as promising sites for conservation. Ornamental flowers, which are readily available at most commercial garden centers, are ubiquitous in these landscapes. These varieties are often non-native and highly bred, and their utility to pollinators is complex. In this study, we used observational data and citizen science to develop a methods framework that will assist stakeholders in the floriculture industry to incorporate metrics of pollinator health into existing breeding and evaluation protocols. The results of this study support how plant attractiveness to pollinators is often dependent on variables such as climate and plant phenology, which should be considered when developing an assessment tool. Furthermore, we found that some cultivars were consistently attractive across all observations while for other cultivars, pollinator visitation was apparently conditional. We determine using multiple statistical tests that 10 min is a sufficient length of time for observation of most plant types to broadly estimate three measures of plant attractiveness: visitor abundance, primary visitors attracted, and cultivar rank attractiveness, without sacrificing efficiency or accuracy. Additionally, we demonstrate that properly trained non-expert observers can collect accurate observational data, and our results suggest that protocols may be designed to maximize consistency across diverse data collectors.

Effectiveness of the Preventive Intervention of Chromosomal Disorders of Iran's Community Genetics Program: Application of Bayesian Network.

Background: Evidence-based policymaking for the genetic preventive interventions at the community level requires information on the effectiveness of interventions in the operational areas taking into account the characteristics of health system and customer behaviour. These information are limited in many low- and middle-income countries. In this study, we estimated the effectiveness of preventive interventions for chromosomal disorders using the conceptual framework of Iran’s community genetics program (ICGP) using a Bayesian Network as a modeling method in limited access situation to the complete and accurate observational data. Methods: Expert elicitation method based on global and national scientific evidences was applied to determine the structure of the Bayesian Network (BN) and to quantify the probability of nodes. The nomological and face validity of the network was checked. Also, a sensitivity analysis against the sources of uncertainty of probabilities was conducted. Results: By ICGP interventions, 63% (95% CI, 0.55-0.71) of all chromosomal disorders can be prevented, which is responsible for 80% (95% CI, 0.76-0.84) and 38% (95% CI, 0.31-0.45) reduction of expected baseline birth prevalence of trisomis and other autosomal disorders, respectively. Improving the access to and the uptake of screening service can also result in a 12% and 11% increase in effectiveness, respectively. Conclusion: Effectiveness of ICGP’s intervention is between the same interventions’ effectiveness in Western Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean region. Opportunities for increasing the uptake of and the access to the interventions are strengthening the public genetic literacy and implantation of a system of laboratory sample transfer at the side of the utilization of telehealth for delivering the counseling services at remote areas.

A nonintrusive hybrid neural-physics modeling of incomplete dynamical systems: Lorenz equations

This work presents a hybrid modeling approach to data-driven learning and representation of unknown physical processes and closure parameterizations. These hybrid models are suitable for situations where the mechanistic description of dynamics of some variables is unknown, but reasonably accurate observational data can be obtained for the evolution of the state of the system. In this work, we propose machine learning to account for missing physics and then data assimilation to correct the prediction. In particular, we devise an effective methodology based on a recurrent neural network to model the unknown dynamics. A long short-term memory (LSTM) based correction term is added to the predictive model in order to take into account hidden physics. Since LSTM introduces a black-box approach for the unknown part of the model, we investigate whether the proposed hybrid neural-physical model can be further corrected through a sequential data assimilation step. We apply this framework to the weakly nonlinear Lorenz model that displays quasiperiodic oscillations, the highly nonlinear chaotic Lorenz model, and two-scale Lorenz model. The hybrid neural-physics model yields accurate results for the weakly nonlinear Lorenz model with the predicted state close to the true Lorenz model trajectory. For the highly nonlinear Lorenz model and the two-scale Lorenz model, the hybrid neural-physics model deviates from the true state due to the accumulation of prediction error from one time step to the next time step. The ensemble Kalman filter approach takes into account the prediction error and updates the diverged prediction using available observations in order to provide a more accurate state estimate for the highly nonlinear chaotic Lorenz model and two-scale Lorenz system. The successful synergistic integration of neural network and data assimilation for low-dimensional system shows the potential benefits of the proposed hybrid-neural physics model for complex dynamical systems.

Comparison of Admiralty and Least Square Methods for Tidal Analysis in Mandangin Island, Sampang Regency, East Java

The existence of hydro-oceanographic information such as tides plays an essential role in supporting coastal areas' transportation. This study aims to compare the tidal analysis results in Mandangin Island, Sampang Regency, East Java using the Admiralty and Least Square methods. The data used in this study are tidal data for May and November 2020, which represent the dry and rainy seasons in Indonesia. Tide data are obtained from the Geospatial Information Agency (BIG) at one-hour intervals. From this research, it can be concluded that the tidal types generated from the Admiralty and Least Square methods in Mandangin Island, East Java, are mixed types with semidiurnal tendencies. The use of the Admiralty and Least Square methods results in the difference in the harmonic components' amplitude values. The M2 and O1 components have an enormous difference in May 2020, with amplitude values of 0.0003 and 0.0002, and the difference in the amplitude values of the harmonic components also occurred in November 2020. The M2 component has the most significant difference compar e to other components, namely 0.0011. The components O1, P1, and MS4 in the same month result in a relatively small difference in amplitude values with values of 0.0002, 0.0002, and 0.0001. For further tidal research, data corrections should be considered, a nodal correction to produce more accurate observational data. This correction can use the T_Tide program with constants obtained from the analysis process.

Gravitational Fluctuations as an Alternative to Inflation III. Numerical Results

Power spectra play an important role in the theory of inflation, and their ability to reproduce current observational data to high accuracy is often considered a triumph of inflation, largely because of a lack of credible alternatives. In previous work we introduced an alternative picture for the cosmological power spectra based on the nonperturbative features of the quantum version of Einstein’s gravity, instead of currently popular inflation models based on scalar fields. The key ingredients in this new picture are the appearance of a nontrivial gravitational vacuum condensate (directly related to the observed cosmological constant), and a calculable renormalization group running of Newton’s G on cosmological scales. More importantly, one notes the absence of any fundamental scalar fields in this approach. Results obtained previously were largely based on a semi-analytical treatment, and thus, while generally transparent in their implementation, often suffered from the limitations of various approximations and simplifying assumptions. In this work, we extend and refine our previous calculations by laying out an updated and extended analysis, which now utilizes a set of suitably modified state-of-the-art numerical programs (ISiTGR, MGCAMB and MGCLASS) developed for observational cosmology. As a result, we are able to remove some of the approximations employed in our previous studies, leading to a number of novel and detailed physical predictions. These should help in potentially distinguishing the vacuum condensate picture of quantum gravity from that of other models such as scalar field inflation. Here, besides the matter power spectrum P m ( k ) , we work out, in detail, predictions for what are referred to as the TT, TE, EE, BB angular spectra, as well as their closely related lensing spectra. However, the current limited precision of observational data today (especially on large angular scales) does not allow us yet to clearly prove or disprove either set of ideas. Nevertheless, by exploring in more details the relationship between gravity and cosmological matter and radiation both analytically and numerically, together with an expected future influx of increasingly accurate observational data, one can hope that the new quantum gravitational picture can be subjected to further stringent tests in the near future.

Three-Dimensional Observation of Atmospheric Processes in Cities

To cope with weather and climate-induced impacts as well as with air pollution in cities, the German research programme “Urban Climate Under Change” ([UC]2) aims at developing, testing and validating a new urban climate model, which is able to cover the full range of temporal and spatial scales of urban atmospheric processes. The project “Three-dimensional Observation of Atmospheric Processes in Cities” (3DO), which forms the module B of the [UC]2 research programme, aims at acquisition of comprehensive, accurate three-dimensional observational data sets on weather, climate and air quality in the German cities of Berlin, Hamburg and Stuttgart. Data sets from long-term observations and intense observation periods allow for evaluation of the performance of a new urban climate model called PALM‑4U that is developed by the project “Model-based city planning and application in climate change” (MOSAIK), which forms the module A of the [UC]2 research programme. This article focuses on collaborative activities for compilation of existing and acquisition of new observational data within the 3DO project.

Evaluating changes of biomass in global vegetation models: the role of turnover fluctuations and ENSO events

This paper evaluates the ability of eight global vegetation models to reproduce recent trends and inter-annual variability of biomass in natural terrestrial ecosystems. For the purpose of this evaluation, the simulated trajectories of biomass are expressed in terms of the relative rate of change in biomass (RRB), defined as the deviation of the actual rate of biomass turnover from its equilibrium counterpart. Cumulative changes in RRB explain long-term changes in biomass pools. RRB simulated by the global vegetation models is compared with its observational equivalent, derived from vegetation optical depth reconstructions of above-ground biomass (AGB) over the period 1993–2010. According to the RRB analysis, the rate of global biomass growth described by the ensemble of simulations substantially exceeds the observation. The observed fluctuations of global RRB are significantly correlated with El Niño Southern Oscillation events (ENSO), but only some of the simulations reproduce this correlation. However, the ENSO sensitivity of RRB in the tropics is not significant in the observation, while it is in some of the simulations. This mismatch points to an important limitation of the observed AGB reconstruction to capture biomass variations in tropical forests. Important discrepancies in RRB were also identified at the regional scale, in the tropical forests of Amazonia and Central Africa, as well as in the boreal forests of north-western America, western and central Siberia. In each of these regions, the RRBs derived from the simulations were analyzed in connection with underlying differences in net primary productivity and biomass turnover rate ̶as a basis for exploring in how far differences in simulated changes in biomass are attributed to the response of the carbon uptake to CO2 increments, as well as to the model representation of factors affecting the rates of mortality and turnover of foliage and roots. Overall, our findings stress the usefulness of using RRB to evaluate complex vegetation models and highlight the importance of conducting further evaluations of both the actual rate of biomass turnover and its equilibrium counterpart, with special focus on their background values and sources of variation. In turn, this task would require the availability of more accurate multi-year observational data of biomass and net primary productivity for natural ecosystems, as well as detailed and updated information on land-cover classification.

A Nowcasting Model for Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Regions Based on the TREC Motion Vector Retrieval with a Semi-Lagrangian Scheme for Doppler Weather Radar

Accurate observational data and reliable prediction models are both essential to improve the quality of precipitation forecasts. The spiraling trajectories of air parcels within a tropical cyclone (TC) coupled with the large sizes of these systems brings special challenges in making accurate short-term forecasts, or nowcasts. Doppler weather radars are ideal instruments to observe TCs when they move over land, and traditional nowcasts incorporate radar data. However, data from dozens of radars must be mosaicked together to observe the entire system. Traditional single-radar-based reflectivity tracking methods commonly employed in nowcasting are not suitable for TCs as they are not able to capture the circular motion of these systems. Thus, this paper focuses on improving short-term predictability of TC precipitation with Doppler weather radar observations based on: a multi-scale motion vector retrieval algorithm, an optimization technique and a semi-Lagrangian advection scheme. Motion fields of precipitation regions are obtained by a multi-level motion vector retrieval algorithm, then corrected and smoothed by the optimization technique using mass and smooth constraints. Predicted precipitation regions are then extrapolated using the semi-Lagrangian advection scheme. A case study of Hurricane Isabel (2003) shows that the combination of these methods may increase reliable rainfall prediction to about 5 h as the TC moves over land.

A Comparison of Ground‐Penetrating Radar Early‐Time Signal Approaches for Mapping Changes in Shallow Soil Water Content

Core Ideas Early‐time amplitude analysis requires understanding of site, system, and methodology. The AEA and CFA both have benefits and disadvantages. Time window selection is important when shallow reflectors may be present. Early time GPR results are highly frequency dependent. Improving irrigation efficiency requires accurate assessment of the soil moisture distribution in time and space, but obtaining accurate observational data is challenging. Early‐time signal (ETS) amplitude analysis of ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) data may permit such rapid noninvasive characterization. In this study we performed controlled irrigation experiments using a multifrequency GPR system to compare two statistics used to quantify the ETS: average envelope amplitude (AEA) and carrier frequency amplitude (CFA). Supporting data were provided by direct measurements, electrical resistivity imaging (ERI), and synthetic modeling. In our first experiment, both statistics successfully related the ETS for 250 and 400 MHz GPR data to increasing water content. However, the 400 MHz AEA lost sensitivity at later stages of the irrigation process, whereas the 400 MHz CFA remained sensitive to changes in water content. The 1000 MHz data did not show the expected relationships, possibly due to shallow reflectors, such as the wetting front, which the higher frequency antennae would have a greater chance of detecting, as supported by synthetic modeling. In our second experiment, we focused on the effect of the time window on calculating ETS statistics. We demonstrate that, when there is interference in the ETS, using a shorter time window instead of the more common first positive half cycle improves correlation with soil moisture content. Our work shows that the GPR ETS data respond to changes in soil water content in similar fashion to ERI data.

ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF LUMINOUS MATTER IN A FRIEDMANN UNIVERSE

The Friedmann model is considered through stereographic projection of the Friedmann-Roberson-Walker metric for open, flat and closed matter-dominated universe. A relation between redshift and number density of galaxies is derived on the platform of this metric while neglecting the effects of dark matter and dark energy. The derived relation is observed to have the potential to test the fractal-homogeneous nature of our universe based on accurate future observational data.

Confounding factors in determining causal soil moisture‐precipitation feedback

AbstractIdentification of causal links in the land‐atmosphere system is important for construction and testing of land surface and general circulation models. However, the land and atmosphere are highly coupled and linked by a vast number of complex, interdependent processes. Statistical methods, such as Granger causality, can help to identify feedbacks from observational data, independent of the different parameterizations of physical processes and spatiotemporal resolution effects that influence feedbacks in models. However, statistical causal identification methods can easily be misapplied, leading to erroneous conclusions about feedback strength and sign. Here, we discuss three factors that must be accounted for in determination of causal soil moisture‐precipitation feedback in observations and model output: seasonal and interannual variability, precipitation persistence, and endogeneity. The effect of neglecting these factors is demonstrated in simulated and observational data. The results show that long‐timescale variability and precipitation persistence can have a substantial effect on detected soil moisture‐precipitation feedback strength, while endogeneity has a smaller effect that is often masked by measurement error and thus is more likely to be an issue when analyzing model data or highly accurate observational data.

Probing the interaction between dark energy and dark matter with the parametrized post-Friedmann approach

There possibly exists some direct, non-gravitational coupling between dark energy and dark matter. This possibility should be seriously tested by using observations, which requires us to understand such a scenario from the aspects of both expansion history and growth of structure. It is found that once calculating the perturbations in the interacting dark energy (IDE) scenario, for most cases the curvature perturbation on superhorizon scales is divergent, which is a catastrophe for the IDE cosmology. We found a solution to this issue, which is to establish an effective theory to treat the dark energy perturbations totally based on the basic facts of dark energy. This scheme generalizes the parametrized post-Friedmann framework of uncoupled dark energy and can be used to cure the instability of the IDE cosmology. The whole parameter space of IDE models can henceforward be explored by observational data. The IDE scenario can thus be tested or falsified with current and future observational data by using the PPF approach. We expect that the future highly accurate observational data would offer the certain answer to the question whether there is a direct coupling between dark energy and dark matter.

3D models of slow motions in the Earth’s crust and upper mantle in the source zones of seismically active regions and their comparison with highly accurate observational data: II. Results of numerical calculations

In the first part of the paper, a new method was developed for solving the inverse problem of coseismic and postseismic deformations in the real (imperfectly elastic, radially and horizontally heterogeneous, self-gravitating) Earth with hydrostatic initial stresses from highly accurate modern satellite data. The method is based on the decomposition of the sought parameters in the orthogonalized basis. The method was suggested for estimating the ambiguity of the solution of the inverse problem for coseismic and postseismic deformations. For obtaining this estimate, the orthogonal complement is constructed to the n-dimensional space spanned by the system of functional derivatives of the residuals in the system of n observed and model data on the coseismic and postseismic displacements at a variety of sites on the ground surface with small variations in the models. Below, we present the results of the numerical modeling of the elastic displacements of the ground surface, which were based on calculating Green’s functions of the real Earth for the plane dislocation surface and different orientations of the displacement vector as described in part I of the paper. The calculations were conducted for the model of a horizontally homogeneous but radially heterogeneous selfgravitating Earth with hydrostatic initial stresses and the mantle rheology described by the Lomnitz logarithmic creep function according to (M. Molodenskii, 2014). We compare our results with the previous numerical calculations (Okado, 1985; 1992) for the simplest model of a perfectly elastic nongravitating homogeneous Earth. It is shown that with the source depths starting from the first hundreds of kilometers and with magnitudes of about 8.0 and higher, the discrepancies significantly exceed the errors of the observations and should therefore be taken into account. We present the examples of the numerical calculations of the creep function of the crust and upper mantle for the coseismic deformations. We also demonstrate the results of estimating the ambiguity of the models of postseismic deformations in the vicinity of the source of the Great Tohoku earthquake of March 11, 2011, which were obtained by the method of orthogonalization described in the first part of the paper.

3D models of slow motions in the Earth’s crust and upper mantle in the source zones of seismically active regions and their comparison with highly accurate observational data: I. Main relationships

Constructing detailed models for postseismic and coseismic deformations of the Earth’s surface has become particularly important because of the recently established possibility to continuously monitor the tectonic stresses in the source zones based on the data on the time variations in the tidal tilt amplitudes. Below, a new method is suggested for solving the inverse problem about the coseismic and postseismic deformations in the real non-ideally elastic, radially and horizontally heterogeneous, self-gravitating Earth with a hydrostatic distribution of the initial stresses from the satellite data on the ground surface displacements. The solution of this problem is based on decomposing the parameters determining the geometry of the fault surface and the distribution of the dislocation vector on this surface and elastic modules in the source in the orthogonal bases. The suggested approach includes four steps: 1. Calculating (by the perturbation method) the variations in Green’s function for the radial and tangential ground surface displacements with small 3D variations in the mechanical parameters and geometry of the source area (i.e., calculating the functional derivatives of the three components of Green’s function on the surface from the distributions of the elastic moduli and creep function within the volume of the source area and Burgers’ vector on the surface of the dislocations); 2. Successive orthogonalization of the functional derivatives; 3. Passing from the decompositions of the residuals between the observed and modeled surface displacements in the system of nonorthogonalized functional derivatives to their decomposition in the system of orthogonalized derivatives; finding the corrections to the distributions of the sought parameters from the coefficients of their decompositions in the orthogonalized basis; and 4. Analyzing the ambiguity of the inverse problem solution by constructing the orthogonal complement to the obtained basis. The described approach has the following advantages over the method of steepest descent which was used in our previous works: 1. Application of the perturbation method significantly reduces the volume of the computations in the real problems of coseismic and postseismic deformations (by three to four orders of magnitude when the data from a few dozens of observation points are used); 2. In contrast to the method of steepest descent, the suggested method always provides stable results. This means that adding the new satellite data does not alter the previously calculated coefficients in the low-order harmonics of the distributions of the sought parameters in the orthogonalized basis; this only changes the coefficients of the increasingly higher harmonics which determine the smallscale details in the sought distributions. 3. In contrast to the method of steepest descent, the suggested method is not only capable of constructing stable partial solutions of the inverse problem but also estimating the ambiguity of these solutions. The ambiguity is represented in terms of the superposition of the known functions contained in the orthogonal complement and, hence, with the growth of the amount of the analyzed data it is determined by the linear combination of the increasingly higher harmonics. In the second part of the paper, we present the results of the model numerical computations of Green’s function for the elastic displacements of the ground surface, which correspond to the case of the arbitrary geometry of the dislocation surface and arbitrary orientation of the dislocation vector for the real model of the radially heterogeneous gravitating Earth with the hydrostatic distribution of the initial stresses. The numerical calculations of the creep function in the upper mantle for the coseismic deformations and the ambiguity of the models of postseismic deformations in the vicinity of the source of the Great Tohoku earthquake (Japan) of March 11, 2011 are illustrated by the examples.

Cosmological attractor inflation from the RG-improved Higgs sector of finite gauge theory

The possibility to construct an inflationary scenario for renormalization-group improved potentials corresponding to the Higgs sector of finite gauge models is investigated. Taking into account quantum corrections to the renormalization-group potential which sums all leading logs of perturbation theory is essential for a successful realization of the inflationary scenario, with very reasonable parameter values. The inflationary models thus obtained are seen to be in good agreement with the most recent and accurate observational data. More specifically, the values of the relevant inflationary parameters, ns and r, are close to the corresponding ones in the R2 and Higgs-driven inflation scenarios. It is shown that the model here constructed and Higgs-driven inflation belong to the same class of cosmological attractors.

MPING: Crowd-Sourcing Weather Reports for Research

The Weather Service Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) network within the United States has recently been upgraded to include dual-polarization capability. Among the expectations that have resulted from the upgrade is the ability to discriminate between different precipitation types in winter precipitation events. To know how well any such algorithm performs and whether new algorithms are an improvement, observations of winter precipitation type are needed. Unfortunately, the automated observing systems cannot discriminate between some of the more important types. Thus, human observers are needed. Yet, to deploy dedicated human observers is impractical because the knowledge needed to identify the various precipitation types is common among the public. To most efficiently gather such observations would require the public to be engaged as citizen scientists using a very simple, convenient, nonintrusive method. To achieve this, a simple “app” called mobile Precipitation Identification Near the Ground (mPING) was developed to run on “smart” phones or, more generically, web-enabled devices with GPS location capabilities. Using mPING, anyone with a smartphone can pass observations to researchers at no additional cost to their phone service or to the research project. Deployed in mid-December 2012, mPING has proven to be not only very popular, but also capable of providing consistent, accurate observational data.

Limitations of Methods: The Accuracy of the Values Measured for the Earth's/Sun's Orbital Elements in the Middle East, A.D. 800–1500, Part 2

(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)4. Discussions and ResultsThe relatively accurate observational data obtained by the early Islamic astronomers resulted in the good values for the length of the seasons and for the time intervals between successive mid-seasons that were achieved (Tables 1 and 2) and, consequently, as we shall see presently, the reasonable values for the solar eccentricity that were obtained in the Middle East during the medieval period. Since the accuracy of the observational data has already been discussed by Said and Stephenson,95 we turn our main attention to making comparisons between the methods and the corresponding recorded historical values.96 In order to reach the main goals defined at the beginning of the paper, it should be mentioned that, concerning the varying historical values for the solar orbital elements, we are confronted with a three-fold problem consisting of the following factors:(1) the sensitivity of methods and observational data;(2) the methods and theoretical errors due to the mismatch of the two models, eccentric and elliptical; and(3) the secular decrease in the eccentricity of the Earth.(1) As explained in Section 2, the three methods are all sensitive in varying degrees to the input data, but the essential observational data for them are substantially different. This makes, hypothetically, the Three-Point Method more grounded and the Seasons Method less trustworthy.It can be seen from Tables 1 and 2 that the immense observational activities in the Middle East between A.D. 800 and 1000 brought clearly into focus the sensitivity of the Seasons and Mid-Sign Methods to the observational data, by leading to different values for the solar eccentricity in a relatively short period (as remarked by BirunT himself; see below). The sensitivity in the case of the Seasons Method led, for instance, to an eleventh-century astronomer's obtaining Battanl's value for e (cf. Table 1, no. 7), and (cf. Table 1, no. 8) to a twelve-century astronomer's producing that ofYahya.Basically, the possible sources of the observational errors in measuring the time interval between an equinox and its subsequent solstice or between two successive mid-seasons may be due to (a) the skill of the observers, (b) the probable deficiencies and systematic errors in the instruments applied, and (c) the inevitable difficulties and possible errors in exact determinations of the instants of the equinoxes, midseasons, and solstices.It should be noticed that it is difficult to distinguish between the errors caused by factors (a) and (b). Said and Stephenson have analysed the measurements of the solar meridian altitude related to equinoxes, solstices, and mid-seasons by a group of early Islamic astronomers (al-Marwarudhl, the Banu Musa, Ibn 'Ismat, al-Suft, Abu Mahmud al-Khujandi, and BirunTin both Ghazni and Juijaniyya), and confirmed that the results achieved are of a high precision. The smallest error was observed in the case of al-Marwarudhl (±0.01°), while none of the errors exceeded ±0.02°, which falls within the maximum resolution power of the unaided eye (around one arc-minute).97 Besides high observational accuracy, as Maeyama notices,98 two other factors were effective in achieving these results: the neglect of the Ptolemaic solar parallax (except in the case of Ibn 'Ismat),99 and the fact that the observations were made in localities (in the Middle East) with a low geographical latitude, which caused the meridian solar observations not to be affected too much by refraction.100Now, in view of this remarkable accuracy, the problem of distinguishing factors (a) and (b) appears to be of less significance. However, the recorded observational data may inspire the idea that the instruments applied involved mistakes and deficiencies; for example, Said and Stephenson found that BlrQnT's observation in Ghazni was exposed to a systematic error of around -0. …