Accurate Parameter Estimates Research Articles

An efficient hybrid algorithm based on particle swarm optimisation and teaching‐learning‐based optimisation for parameter estimation of photovoltaic models

AbstractIn recent years, many meta‐heuristic algorithms have been investigated to estimate the parameters of photovoltaic (PV) models. However, the accuracy of the estimated parameters still needs to be concerned, especially for some complex PV models with many unknown parameters. In order to estimate the unknown parameters of the PV models more precisely and reliably, an efficient hybrid algorithm based on particle swarm optimisation and teaching‐learning‐based optimisation (PSOTLBO) is proposed in this paper. In PSOTLBO, inspired by the learner phase of teaching‐learning‐based optimisation (TLBO), an improved learner phase is designed and introduced into the basic PSO to enhance the global search ability and the ability to get rid of local optimum. The improved learner phase divides the population into four groups according to three values, which are the average fitness values of the overall population, the population in the first half of the fitness ranking and the population in the second half of the fitness ranking. Typically, each group has its particular movement pattern concentrating on exploration or exploitation respectively to improve the search efficiency of the algorithm. Furthermore, to deal with individuals beyond the boundary, a new designed probabilistic rebound strategy is introduced, which increases the diversity of population and avoids population aggregation at the search boundary. Then, the proposed PSOTLBO is applied to estimate the parameters of the single diode model, double diode model and PV module model. The comparative results between PSOTLBO and other 14 advanced algorithms show that the average root mean square error values of different PV models obtained by PSOTLBO are 9.86021878E−04, 9.82630511E−04, 2.42507487E−03, 1.72981371E−03, and 1.66006031E−02, respectively, which indicate that PSOTLBO can provide more accurate and stable parameter estimation results than other compared algorithms. Furthermore, the convergence experimental results demonstrate that PSOTLBO has outstanding performance in convergence speed and stability.

A signal model for fat-suppressed T1-mapping and dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI with interrupted spoiled gradient-echo readout.

The conventional gradient-echo steady-state signal model is the basis of various spoiled gradient-echo (SPGR) based quantitative MRI models, including variable flip angle (VFA) MRI and dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE). However, including preparation pulses, such as fat suppression or saturation bands, disrupts the steady-state and leads to a bias in T1 and DCE parameter estimates. This work introduces a signal model that improves the accuracy of VFA T1-mapping and DCE for interrupted spoiled gradient-echo (I-SPGR) acquisitions. The proposed model was applied to a VFA T1-mapping I-SPGR sequence in the Gold Standard T1-phantom (3T), in the brain of four healthy volunteers (3 T), and to an abdominal DCE examination (1.5T). T1-values obtained with the proposed and conventional model were compared to reference T1-values. Bland-Altman analysis (phantom) and analysis of variance (in vivo) were used to test whether bias from both methods was significantly different (p= 0.05). The proposed model outperformed the conventional model by decreasing the bias in the phantom with respect to the phantom reference values (mean bias -2 vs. -35% at 3T) and in vivo with respect to the conventional SPGR (-6 vs. -37% bias in T1, p< 0.01). The proposed signal model estimated approximately 48% (depending on baseline T1) higher contrast concentrations in vivo, which resulted in decreased DCE pharmacokinetic parameter estimates of up to 35%. The proposed signal model improves the accuracy of quantitative parameter estimation from disrupted steady-state I-SPGR sequences. It therefore provides a flexible method for applying fat suppression, saturation bands, and other preparation pulses in VFA T1-mapping and DCE.

Application of Hierarchical Bayesian Models for Modeling Economic Costs in the Implementation of New Diagnostic Tests

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for reliable and rapid diagnostic tests to control the spread of infection. The introduction of new rapid antigen tests often goes in tandem with the limited data availability, making it challenging to assess their performance at the initial phase of the pandemic. Sensitivity and specificity, the key performance characteristics provided by manufacturers, are typically derived under laboratory conditions and may not accurately reflect the tests' performance in field settings. We use the hierarchical Bayesian model to obtain their realistic estimates in real world conditions and show how it may be used in situations in which new tests with limited history are presented on the market. Proposed methodology allows for the efficient information pooling, thereby improving on the accuracy of parameter estimates for new tests. The results suggest that the application of hierarchical model on the Czech data led to a considerabile reduction in uncertainty associated with the parameter estimates as well as with potential economic cost implied by false positive test results. The model can thus assist in better informed decision-making and financial planning of both the government and corporations.

Rapid parameter estimation for merging massive black hole binaries using continuous normalizing flows

Abstract Detecting the coalescences of massive black hole binaries (MBHBs) is one of the primary targets for space-based gravitational wave observatories such as laser interferometer space antenna, Taiji, and Tianqin. The fast and accurate parameter estimation of merging MBHBs is of great significance for the global fitting of all resolvable sources, as well as the astrophysical interpretation of gravitational wave signals. However, such analyses usually entail significant computational costs. To address these challenges, inspired by the latest progress in generative models, we explore the application of continuous normalizing flows (CNFs) on the parameter estimation of MBHBs. Specifically, we employ linear interpolation and trig interpolation methods to construct transport paths for training CNFs. Additionally, we creatively introduce a parameter transformation method based on the symmetry in the detector’s response function. This transformation is integrated within CNFs, allowing us to train the model using a simplified dataset, and then perform parameter estimation on more general data, hence also acting as a crucial factor in improving the training speed. In conclusion, for the first time, within a comprehensive and reasonable parameter range, we have achieved a complete and unbiased 11-dimensional rapid inference for MBHBs in the presence of astrophysical confusion noise using CNFs. In the experiments based on simulated data, our model produces posterior distributions comparable to those obtained by nested sampling.

Enhanced TomoSAR imaging method with complex least squares for 3D building reconstruction

ABSTRACT Synthetic aperture radar tomography (TomoSAR) has emerged as an advanced technology for the rapid acquisition of three-dimensional information, with model solutions dependent on a specific complex least squares adjustment criterion. We design two TomoSAR imaging algorithms based on two adjustment criterions minimizing the square sum of the real and imaginary components of observation vector residual, and minimizing the square sum of the L2-norm of observation vector residual. Additionally, we propose a strong scatterer recognition method that combines amplitude thresholding and density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise to alleviate the low efficiency and excessive noise in real images. The simulated and practical experiments are conducted to evaluate the performance of algorithms. Results suggested that two algorithms perform similarly in parameter estimation accuracy and noise immunity for buildings with simple structures and single scatterer. However, for buildings with multiple scatterers, the algorithm derived by minimizing the square sum of the L2-norm from the observation vector residual exhibits more robustly than the other algorithm, accurately distinguishing multiple scatterers within pixels and reconstructing 3D scenes mirroring the actual ones. The results verify the effectiveness of the proposed strong scatterer recognition method and the importance of the adjustment criterion in TomoSAR imaging.

Full-field Modal Analysis of a Tensegrity Column Using a Three-dimensional Scanning Laser Doppler Vibrometer with a Mirror

Abstract Tensegrity structures become important components of various engineering structures due to their high stiffness, light weight, and deployable capability. Existing studies on their dynamic analyses mainly focus on responses of their nodal points while overlook deformations of their cable and strut members. This study proposes a non-contact approach for experimental modal analysis of a tensegrity structure to identify its three-dimensional (3D) natural frequencies and full-field mode shapes, which include modes with deformations of its cable and strut members. A 3D scanning laser Doppler vibrometer is used with a mirror for extending its field of view to measure full-field vibration of a novel three-strut metal tensegrity column with free boundaries. Tensions and axial stiffnesses of its cable members are determined using natural frequencies of their transverse and longitudinal modes, respectively, to build its theoretical model for dynamic analysis and model validation purposes. Modal assurance criterion (MAC) values between experimental and theoretical mode shapes are used to identify their paired modes. Modal parameters of the first 15 elastic modes of the tensegrity column identified from the experiment, including those of the overall structure and its cable members, can be classified into five mode groups depending on their types. Modes paired between experimental and theoretical results have MAC values larger than 78%. Differences between natural frequencies of paired modes of the tensegrity column are less than 15%. The proposed non-contact 3D vibration measurement approach allows accurate estimation of 3D full-field modal parameters of the tensegrity column.

A Next Generation of Hierarchical Bayesian Analyses of Hybrid Zones Enables Model-Based Quantification of Variation in Introgression in R.

Hybrid zones, where genetically distinct groups of organisms meet and interbreed, offer valuable insights into the nature of species and speciation. Here, we present a new R package, bgchm, for population genomic analyses of hybrid zones. This R package extends and updates the existing bgc software and combines Bayesian analyses of hierarchical genomic clines with Bayesian methods for estimating hybrid indexes, interpopulation ancestry proportions, and geographic clines. Compared to existing software, bgchm offers enhanced efficiency through Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling and the ability to work with genotype likelihoods combined with a hierarchical Bayesian approach, enabling inference for diverse types of genetic data sets. The package also facilitates the quantification of introgression patterns across genomes, which is crucial for understanding reproductive isolation and speciation genetics. We first describe the models underlying bgchm and then provide an overview of the R package and illustrate its use through the analysis of simulated and empirical data sets. We show that bgchm generates accurate estimates of model parameters under a variety of conditions, especially when the genetic loci analyzed are highly ancestry informative. This includes relatively robust estimates of genome-wide variability in clines, which has not been the focus of previous models and methods. We also illustrate how both selection and genetic drift contribute to variability in introgression among loci and how additional information can be used to help distinguish these contributions. We conclude by describing the promises and limitations of bgchm, comparing bgchm to other software for genomic cline analyses, and identifying areas for fruitful future development.

A Neural-Metaheuristic Kalman Filter for Moving Microburst Wind Shear Identification

Microburst wind shears (MB) are powerful localized three dimensional (3D) columns of wind that occur when cooled air drops from the base of thunderstorms at high speeds. They eventually hit the ground and spread out in all directions. As such MBs are considered a major atmospheric hazard for aircrafts (ACs), especially in terminal flight phases. Though pilots train regularly to survive it, yet the most recommended practice within the aviation community is to avoid its encounter upon detection. Some modern aircrafts have predictive wind shear warning systems, but they have limited short range capability and do not provide quantitative data for engineering application. In this sense, accurate onboard detection and identification of MBs and its characteristics is of importance for flight safety, whose success can lead to design of automatic flight control systems (FCSs) that reduce the risk of aircraft crash landings and accidents. Even though there are some studies on FCS designs for MB encounter, research on MB identification is rare but ongoing. To this aim, the present study is among the firsts that focuses on online identification of multiple and moving MB parameters using onboard aircraft air data and inertial sensors. The identification task is initially performed using the aircraft six degrees of freedom (6DoF) equations of motion (EOM) integrated with a 3D MB model via the utility of nonlinear Kalman filtering (KF) algorithms. Subsequently, an enhanced neural metaheuristic Kalman filter (NMKF) is proposed that improves the estimation accuracy of the MB model parameters. The results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed NMKF in comparison with previous studies.

Inverse Problem for the Moisture Transfer Equation: Development of a Method for Finding the Unknown Parameter and Proof of the Convergence of the Iterative Process

This study develops a mathematical model for soil moisture diffusion, addressing the inverse problem of determining both the diffusion coefficient and the variation coefficient in a nonlinear moisture transfer equation. The model incorporates specific boundary and initial conditions and utilizes experimentally measured moisture values at a boundary point as input data. An iterative method, based on an explicit gradient scheme, is introduced to estimate the soil parameters. The initial boundary value problem is discretized, leading to a difference analog and the formulation of a conjugate difference problem. Iterative formulas for calculating the unknown parameters are derived, with a priori estimates ensuring the convergence of the iterative process. Additionally, the research establishes the convergence of the numerical model itself, providing a rigorous foundation for the proposed approach. The study also emphasizes symmetry in moisture calculations, ensuring consistency regardless of the calculation direction (from right to left or left to right) and confirming that moisture distribution remains symmetric within specified intervals. This preservation of symmetry enhances the model’s robustness and accuracy in parameter estimation. The numerical simulations were successfully conducted over a 7-day period, demonstrating the model’s reliability. The discrepancy between the numerical predictions and experimental observations remained within the margin of measurement error, confirming the model’s accuracy.

Enhancing reliability in estimating modal parameters for automotive disk Brakes: A comprehensive approach using the Eigensystem Realization algorithm and additional criteria

This paper investigates the challenges in accurately identifying and assessing vibration characteristics in automotive disk brakes, which, due to their geometric symmetry, exhibit closely spaced vibration modes. Understanding the damping characteristics is crucial due to their significant impact on dynamic stability and the potential onset of brake squeal, as damping directly influences the stability threshold and its uneven distribution can destabilize the system. Therefore, this study primarily focuses on the identification of modal parameters with an emphasis on the damping of disk brakes. Traditional Experimental Modal Analysis (EMA) techniques, which rely heavily on Frequency Response Function (FRF) measurements, encounter challenges in distinguishing closely spaced modes, thereby affecting the reliability of parameter estimation, particularly damping. These algorithms are primarily based on FRF measurements and are of multi-input – single-output type (MISO). In comparison to Operational Modal Analyses (OMA) algorithms, which are widely used in civil engineering and are of the multi-input − multi-output type and contain statistical tools for assessing the uncertainty of the estimate, EMA provides limited possibilities to assess the quality of estimating parameters. The primary contribution of this work is demonstrating that the Eigensystem Realization Algorithm (ERA), supplemented with indicators such as Extended Modal Amplitude Coherence (EMAC), Modal Phase Collinearity (MPC), and the Consistent Mode Indicator (CMI), offers a robust tool for accurate damping estimation. Additionally, the application of ERA to data originally acquired for frequency-based methods, specifically the Rational Fraction Polynomial (RFP) method, allows for a direct comparison of these two EMA algorithms using the same dataset. The results demonstrate that the proposed identification process effectively distinguishes system modes from those influenced by noise, providing a pathway to optimize test data acquisition and improve the accuracy of modal parameter estimation, especially in systems with closely spaced modes. The method can also serve as a tool for optimizing the acquisition of test data to improve the estimation of modal parameters, by varying the positions of input (SIMO) or by transitioning to MIMO identification to enhance the observability and controllability of closely spaced modes of disk brake.

Bayesian finite element model inversion of offshore wind turbine structures for joint parameter-load estimation

Operating in harsh and unsteady marine environment, offshore wind turbine (OWT) structures are exposed to unpredictable wind and wave loads. Identifying the structural loads and their effects on the OWTs allow for predicting the remaining fatigue life of these structures and improving the structural design procedure. In this paper, a finite element (FE) model inversion method is presented to estimate the unknown loads and model parameters of OWTs using sparse measurement data. A realistic FE model of an OWT structure with jacket substructure is created in the open-source simulation platform, OpenSees. A Bayesian inference framework is presented to integrate the measured data with the FE model to estimate unknown wind loads and mass of rotor-nacelle assembly. To evaluate the performance of this data assimilation framework, the effect of sensor type, number of sensors, and modeling errors on the estimation accuracy of wind loads and model parameters are investigated through different case studies where synthetic data are used as measurements. The results of this study are important to guide instrumentation of new OWT structures, and to understand the potential limitations and sources of error in the real-world application of this data assimilation framework for joint model parameter and input load estimation.

Multivariate Cluster Point Process to Quantify and Explore Multi-Entity Configurations: Application to Biofilm Image Data.

Clusters of similar or dissimilar objects are encountered in many fields. Frequently used approaches treat each cluster's central object as latent. Yet, often objects of one or more types cluster around objects of another type. Such arrangements are common in biomedical images of cells, in which nearby cell types likely interact. Quantifying spatial relationships may elucidate biological mechanisms. Parent-offspring statistical frameworks can be usefully applied even when central objects ("parents") differ from peripheral ones ("offspring"). We propose the novel multivariate cluster point process (MCPP) to quantify multi-object (e.g., multi-cellular) arrangements. Unlike commonly used approaches, the MCPP exploits locations of the central parent object in clusters. It accounts for possibly multilayered, multivariate clustering. The model formulation requires specification of which object types function as cluster centers and which reside peripherally. If such information is unknown, the relative roles of object types may be explored by comparing fit of different models via the deviance information criterion (DIC). In simulated data, we compared a series of models' DIC; the MCPP correctly identified simulated relationships. It also produced more accurate and precise parameter estimates than the classical univariate Neyman-Scott process model. We also used the MCPP to quantify proposed configurations and explore new ones in human dental plaque biofilm image data. MCPP models quantified simultaneous clustering of Streptococcus and Porphyromonas around Corynebacterium and of Pasteurellaceae around Streptococcus and successfully captured hypothesized structures for all taxa. Further exploration suggested the presence of clustering between Fusobacterium and Leptotrichia, a previously unreported relationship.

Uniformization and bounded Taylor series in Newton-Raphsonmethod improves computational performance for a multistate transition model estimation and inference.

Multistate transition models (MSTMs) are valuable tools depicting disease progression. However, due to the complexity of MSTMs, larger sample size and longer follow-up time in real-world data, the computation of statistical estimation and inference for MSTMs becomes challenging. A bounded Taylor series in Newton-Raphson procedure is proposed which leverages the uniformization technique to derive maximum likelihood estimates and corresponding covariance matrix. The proposed method, namely uniformization Taylor-bounded Newton-Raphson, is validated in three simulation studies, which demonstrate the accuracy in parameter estimation, the efficiency in computation time and robustness in terms of different situations. This method is also illustrated using a large electronic medical record data related to statin-induced side effects and discontinuation.

Bayesian grouping-Gibbs sampling estimation of high-dimensional linear model with non-sparsity

In high-dimensional linear regression models, common assumptions typically entail sparsity of regression coefficients β∈Rp. However, these assumptions may not hold when the majority, if not all, of regression coefficients are non-zeros. Statistical methods designed for sparse models may lead to substantial bias in model estimation. Therefore, this article proposes a novel Bayesian Grouping-Gibbs Sampling (BGGS) method, which departs from the common sparse assumptions in high-dimensional problems. The BGGS method leverages a grouping strategy that partitions β into distinct groups, facilitating rapid sampling in high-dimensional space. The grouping number (k) can be determined using the ‘Elbow plot’, which operates efficiently and is robust against the initial value. Theoretical analysis, under some regular conditions, guarantees model selection and parameter estimation consistency, and bound for the prediction error. Furthermore, three finite simulations are conducted to assess the competitive advantages of the proposed method in terms of parameter estimation and prediction accuracy. Finally, the BGGS method is applied to a financial dataset to explore its practical utility.

Advanced parameter estimation for lithium-ion battery model using the information sharing group teaching optimization algorithm

Accurate battery modeling is crucial for optimizing the performance and safety of Lithium-ion batteries (LiBs), particularly in applications such as electric vehicles and smart grids. This paper introduces the Information Sharing Group Teaching Optimization Algorithm (ISGTOA), a novel human-based metaheuristic algorithm designed to estimate the 21 parameters of third-order Equivalent Circuit Model (ECM) for LiBs. Unlike existing methods, ISGTOA effectively manages the increased complexity of a model through advanced group teaching strategies and sophisticated information-sharing mechanisms inspired by classroom dynamics. We validated the effectiveness of ISGTOA using two distinct datasets—High Dynamic Profile (HDP) and Urban Dynamometer Driving Schedule (UDDS)—across various LiB chemistries (NCA and NMC) and temperature conditions (−5 °C, 25 °C and 45 °C). The results demonstrate that ISGTOA achieves superior parameter estimation accuracy and convergence speed compared to established and recent optimization methods such as TLBO, TLSBO, AISA, MTBO, and DTBO. Specifically, ISGTOA attained a minimum RMSE of 8.357 mV with rapid convergence and high stability in the HDP dataset and minimized RMSE to 10 mV within ten iterations at both 25 °C and 45 °C in the UDDS dataset. Additionally, ISGTOA exhibited high efficiency (up to 97.75 %) under varying thermal environments. This work not only introduces a novel algorithm for complex battery modeling but also sets the stage for future advancements in real-time battery management systems, emphasizing the importance of robust, versatile, and efficient parameter estimation techniques.

Inversion of biophysical parameters of potato based on an active learning pool-based sampling strategy

ABSTRACT Timely estimations of leaf chlorophyll content (LCC) and leaf area index (LAI) can provide critical information for potato field management. We employed a hybrid method that integrated machine learning with a radiative transfer model to estimate potato growth parameters. A look-up table was generated using the PROSAIL model, which was used as an unlabelled sample set. Measurements were taken from a potato field, and the data were labelled according to growth period and variety. Then, training samples for potato LCC, LAI, and canopy chlorophyll content (CCC) were selected from the simulated unlabelled sample set using the Euclidean distance-based diversity algorithm based on different labelled data sets. The training sample size required to accurately estimate the parameters varied considerably depending on the parameter, variety, and growth period, despite using the same labelled data set. Moreover, our results indicate that the growth period has a substantial impact on model accuracy and needs to be considered when constructing the labelled data set. The study results indicate that the hybrid method combined with the radiative transfer model and active learning can effectively select informative training samples from a data pool and improve the accuracy of potato parameter estimation, which provides a valid tool for accurately monitoring crop growth and growth health.

UltraStat: Ultrafast Spectroscopy beyond the Fourier Limit Using Bayesian Inference.

The discrete Fourier transform (dFT) plays a central role in many ultrafast experiments, allowing the recovery of spectroscopic observables from time-domain measurements. In resonant experiments when population relaxation and coherence components of the signal coexist, the dFT is usually preceded by multiexponential fitting to remove the large population term. However, this procedure results in errors in both the recovered decay rates and the line shapes of the coherence spectral components. While other methods such as linear prediction singular value decomposition fit both terms simultaneously, they are limited to specific models that may not represent the true signal. These methods do not allow for systematic noise analysis or error estimation and require a priori knowledge of the signal rank. Here, we describe a general approach to parameter estimation in ultrafast spectroscopy─UltraStat─grounded in Bayesian analysis without the limitations set by Fourier theory. Using simulated, but realistic data, we demonstrate in a statistical sense how UltraStat provides accurate parameter estimation in the presence of many experimental constraints: noise, signal truncation, limited photon budget, and nonuniform sampling. UltraStat provides superior resolution compared to the dFT, up to an order of magnitude in cases where the line shapes are well-approximated. In these cases, we establish that primarily noise, not sampling, limits spectral resolution. Moreover, we show that subsampling may reduce the number of acquired points by 90% compared to the Nyquist-Shannon criteria. UltraStat greatly improves parameter estimation by providing statistically bound spectral and dynamics analysis, pushing the limits of ultrafast science.

Adaptive fault estimation and accommodation for distributed parameter systems with coupled parabolic partial differential equations

This paper presents a novel model-based approach for fault detection, estimation and accommodation in linear distributed parameter systems (DPS) governed by parabolic partial differential equations (PDEs), prone to sensor and actuator faults. Unlike traditional methods, our approach utilises a filter-based observer directly employing the PDE representation and relies solely on boundary measurements, eliminating the need for extensive sensor arrays. By generating fault detection residuals from a comparison of measured and observer outputs, our method offers efficient fault detection. Innovative parameter update laws facilitate accurate estimation of fault parameters, enabling precise adjustment of the nominal controller to mitigate fault effects. Rigorous Lyapunov analysis ensures the robustness of our approach. Additionally, we derive a formula for estimating time-to-accommodation (TTA), providing valuable insights into fault resolution timelines. Simulations on a linearised diffusion process validate the effectiveness of our scheme, highlighting its superiority over existing approaches.

Response-Aided Score-Matching Representative Approaches for Big Data Analysis and Model Selection under Generalized Linear Models

In this paper, we propose an efficient method called the response-aided score-matching representative (RASMR) approach to facilitate massive data model selection and data analysis with generalized linear models (GLMs) and a predetermined data partition due to data localization. Similar to the original score-matching representative (SMR) approach, RASMR constructs an artificial data point, called the representative, for each data block. It then fits a GLM on the representative dataset, which provides not only an efficient approach for massive data analysis but also an ideal solution in response to privacy concerns by avoiding the transfer of sensitive data. By further splitting the data blocks according to the values of the response variables, RASMR can obtain more accurate parameter estimates than SMR. Furthermore, by theoretical justifications and simulation studies, we show that RASMR can be more efficiently utilized for model selection and variable selection for a massive dataset by approximating the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the aggregated prediction errors for cross-validation, which are commonly used for choosing the most appropriate statistical model and drawing reliable conclusions. We also apply the proposed RASMR approach to the airline on-time performance data, which consists of 371 data files labeled by month, and show that RASMR can be successfully used for selecting the most appropriate model for real massive data analysis.

Bayesian parameter inference for epithelial mechanics

Cell-based mechanical models, such as the Cell Vertex Model (CVM), have proven useful for studying the mechanical control of epithelial tissue dynamics. We recently developed a statistical method called image-based parameter inference for formulating CVM model functions and estimating their parameters from image data of epithelial tissues. In this study, we employed Bayesian statistics to improve the utility and flexibility of image-based parameter inference. Tests on synthetic data confirmed that both our non-hierarchical and hierarchical Bayesian models provide accurate estimates of model parameters. By applying this method to Drosophila wings, we demonstrated that the reliability of parameter estimation is closely linked to the mechanical anisotropies present in the tissue. Moreover, we revealed that the cortical elasticity term is dispensable for explaining force-shape correlations in vivo. We anticipate that the flexibility of the Bayesian statistical framework will facilitate the integration of various types of information, thereby contributing to the quantitative dissection of the mechanical control of tissue dynamics.