Accurate Beliefs Research Articles

Treatment choices and experiences in attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder: relations to parents’ beliefs and attributions

Despite their potential to influence treatment decisions, parents' beliefs and attitudes regarding attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) have not been widely studied. This research examined relations between parents' beliefs and attitudes and their experiences with different treatments for their children's ADHD. Canadian parents of 73, 5- to 13-year-old, boys with ADHD completed questionnaires measuring beliefs about ADHD, attributions for ADHD behaviours, and treatment experiences. Parents reported using primarily behaviour management and stimulant medications in treating ADHD. Approximately half of the families also used diet/vitamin therapies. Parents were knowledgeable about ADHD and held generally accurate beliefs. They saw ADHD symptoms as predominantly internal to the child and as relatively enduring and pervasive. Parents' beliefs were related to their use of different treatments and parents who used less empirically supported treatments were more likely to see ADHD behaviours as internal to the child, enduring and pervasive. The findings highlight the importance of assessing parents' use of alternate treatments for ADHD and the potential role of parents' beliefs and attributions in shaping treatment choices.

Self-referential thinking and equilibrium as states of mind in games: fMRI evidence

Sixteen subjects' brain activity were scanned using fMRI as they made choices, expressed beliefs, and expressed iterated 2nd-order beliefs (what they think others believe they will do) in eight games. Cingulate cortex and prefrontal areas (active in “theory of mind” and social reasoning) are differentially activated in making choices versus expressing beliefs. Forming self-referential 2nd-order beliefs about what others think you will do seems to be a mixture of processes used to make choices and form beliefs. In equilibrium, there is little difference in neural activity across choice and belief tasks; there is a purely neural definition of equilibrium as a “state of mind.” “Strategic IQ,” actual earnings from choices and accurate beliefs, is negatively correlated with activity in the insula, suggesting poor strategic thinkers are too self-focused, and is positively correlated with ventral striatal activity (suggesting that high IQ subjects are spending more mental energy predicting rewards).

Speculation and Survival in Financial Markets

The paper analyzes a finite time economy with a single risky asset which pays a one-shot payoff (dividend). The payoff is random and its distribution is not known a priori. Agents observe public signals (random draws from the same distribution) and update their beliefs about the payoff. They trade in order to reshuffle their portfolios according to new beliefs. Agents may use various updating rules and are considered to be of two types: sophisticated who are aware of their future beliefs and prices, and naive who are not. Drawing on the methodology by Sandroni (2000), it is shown that among sophisticated agents, those with less accurate beliefs are driven out, in the sense that their wealth becomes arbitrarily small when the number of signals is sufficiently large. On the other hand, it is shown that this statement may not hold in economies with naive agents only, where even agents with inaccurate beliefs may survive.

Do Patients' Beliefs Act as Barriers to Effective Pain Management Behaviors and Outcomes in Patients With Cancer-Related or Noncancer-Related Pain?

To understand the role of patients' beliefs in pain management in a cancer population treated in a primary care setting. Secondary analyses of data from the baseline phase of a randomized study. Eight of the largest primary care clinics in a managed care system. 342 patients with cancer who reported pain that would not dissipate on its own or when treated by over-the-counter medication; approximately half had pain that was not cancer related. Telephone interviews. Patients' demographic characteristics, self-reported history and beliefs about pain and pain treatment, willingness to report pain and take pain medication, recent pain intensity, and administrative data on opioid prescriptions. Patients' beliefs were not associated strongly with reporting pain or taking medication. Regression analyses revealed that patients' beliefs played a limited role in predicting recent pain intensity, whereas the providers' pain management practices seemed to have a far greater predictive role. Additionally, among patients with recent moderate to severe pain, the relationship between patients' beliefs and their history of pain and pain treatment further suggests that beliefs are likely to be formed, in part, as a consequence of the care they receive. Results did not depend on whether the cause of pain was related to cancer. Patients' beliefs were important barriers to effective pain management, either as direct or indirect determinants of pain. Providers' pain management practices were more likely to determine the level of pain relief achieved and the beliefs their patients came to hold based on their personal experiences. Nursing interventions should examine the impact of evaluating patients' beliefs in conjunction with pain assessment on pain-related behaviors and pain relief, as well as the ability of patient educational efforts to strengthen accurate beliefs and enable patients to assert themselves when interacting with less knowledgeable providers.

Explore the Effectors of Bone Mineral Density in Community Women

Epidemiological studies that involve Asian women have revealed that their bone mineral density (BMD) is lower than that of European and American women. Few studies have simultaneously investigated the cognition, beliefs and behavior that affect BMD. The first aim of this study was to elucidate the relationships between demographics, knowledge of osteoporosis, health beliefs about osteoporosis, health-related behavior and BMD. The secondary goal was to explore the major predictive factors that affect the BMD of women in Community. This was an exploratory, community-based, cross-sectional study. Participants (N = 98) completed the osteoporosis related questionnaire and were invited to undergo BMD examinations using quantitative ultrasound (QUS). Overall, 73.4% of the participants had heard of the disease but the proportion of correct responses to the questions that tested knowledge of osteoporosis was only 44.0%. The investigation into osteoporosis-related beliefs revealed that women held quite accurate beliefs regarding the prevention of osteoporosis, but only 23.6% of them had undergone a BMD examination. An adjusted odds ratio indicated that if women had normal BMD then they were 1.57 times (95% CI: 1.08-2.29), 1.10 times (95% CI: 1.00-1.12) and 2.74 (95% CI: 1.09-6.86) times than their counterparts, respectively. The results revealed that women with normal BMD were more likely to have positively self-rated health, knowledge of osteoporosis and preventive behavior than their counterparts. The findings indicated that BMD was subjectively determined by a combination of cognitive and behavioral factors. Early detection was the key to preventing osteoporosis.

The Structure and Development of Internal Working Models: An Integrated Framework for Understanding Clients and Promoting Wellness

The author describes internal working models as unique, individualized conceptualizations of self that are embedded in and influenced by the surrounding sociocultural environment. These models, composed of beliefs, goals, and strategies, provide a framework that defines identity. Distorted, damaged, or self‐defeating internal working models fail to provide stability and coherence and may lead to physical and emotional pain in the individual. Healthy psychosocial development requires an internal working model that includes accurate beliefs about self, others, and the world; meaningful goals; and effective strategies to accomplish those goals.

Market selection when markets are incomplete

Consider a two period exchange economy with dividend uncertainty. Agents have different beliefs, endowments and utility functions. This results in different motives for trading, such as risk-sharing and speculation. In the first period agents trade Arrow securities in zero supply. The set of available Arrow securities is of a specific form, but it can be complete or incomplete. In the second period one out of many possible states of nature is realized. I show that agents with more accurate beliefs (in the sense of higher market entropy) will accumulate more wealth and therefore dominate the economy. This holds regardless of agents’ preferences over risk and in both complete and incomplete market economies. These results indicate that belief accuracy rather than preferences over risk is the critical factor determining survival. However, the exact sense in which agents with more accurate beliefs become wealthier is stronger in complete market economies than in incomplete market economies.

Probation Officers' Beliefs About the Effectiveness of Alcohol Treatment

Research has shown that a large number of individuals on probation have alcohol problems but only a fraction of them receive treatment. This study surveyed 145 probation officers about their views on alcohol problems among probationers. A previous analysis of the data found that two beliefs predicted probation officers' use of coercion to mandate probationers to alcohol treatment: the belief that treatment was effective and the belief that one's peers were using coercion to mandate treatment. The analysis reported here examined factors associated with probation officers' belief that treatment works. Multiple regression found that several factors predicted the belief that treatment is effective. Officers who had a family member with a drinking problem (current or family of origin), those who had a strong belief about their self-efficacy in handling alcohol problems, and those who were more likely to make coerced referrals had stronger beliefs that treatment was effective. Strategies for facilitating accurate beliefs about the effectiveness of treatment and increasing selfefficacy among probation officers are reviewed.

When Accurate Beliefs Lead to Better Lie Detection1

This study tested the hypothesis that people with accurate beliefs about the cues that predict deception are better at detecting deception only when those beliefs are cognitively available and activated. To test the hypothesis, participants viewed video fragments of people who were being either honest or dishonest. A questionnaire assessed participants' beliefs about the cues involved in deception, and activation of participants' belief cues was accomplished by manipulating suspicion. The results provided support for the hypothesis, where participants whose beliefs were activated and had accurate beliefs were better at detecting deception compared to other participants. Gender differences were also found, where lies communicated by women were more accurately detected than were lies communicated by men.

Accurate and inaccurate HIV transmission beliefs, stigmatizing and HIV protection motivation in northern Thailand

We assessed the relation between accurate beliefs about HIV transmission and inaccurate beliefs about HIV transmission and emotional reactions to people with AIDS (PWA) and AIDS risk groups, stigmatizing attitudes and motivation to protect from HIV. In Chiang Rai, northern Thailand, 219 respondents filled in a structured questionnaire assessing accurate and inaccurate HIV transmission beliefs, emotional reactions towards PWA and AIDS risk groups, stigmatizing attitudes and motivation to protect from HIV according to variables from Protection Motivation Theory. Complete accurate beliefs about documented modes of HIV transmission were present in 47% of the respondents, while 26% of the respondents held one or more inaccurate beliefs about HIV transmission. Incomplete beliefs about documented modes of transmission were significantly related to stigmatizing beliefs towards people with AIDS (PWA), to lower vulnerability of HIV infection and lower self-efficacy in protection. Those who held inaccurate beliefs about HIV transmission reported more fear towards PWA and homosexuals and more irritation towards PWA and commercial sex workers. Persons who held inaccurate beliefs about HIV transmission also reported more stigmatizing attitudes, perceived AIDS as less severe, perceived a lower vulnerability and were less motivated to use condoms. Results of this study suggest that inaccurate beliefs about HIV transmission are related to fear and stigmatizing and undermine HIV prevention behaviour.

Examining the relationship of addiction education and beliefs of nursing students toward persons with alcohol problems

This study examined the effectiveness of two methods of teaching nursing students about alcohol addiction. Each student who agreed to participate was given pretests, posttests, and 3-month follow-up tests that measured knowledge about and beliefs held toward people who abuse alcohol. Group 1 received lecture only, whereas group 2 received lecture and discussion with a person who had been sober for many years. Both groups showed improved scores in knowledge and certain aspects of beliefs, however, group 2 showed greater knowledge and more accurate beliefs overall toward this population than group 1. The introduction of a person successfully remaining sober was shown to be an even more effective teaching strategy than lecture alone.

AIDS Knowledge among Latinos: Findings from a Community and Agricultural Labor Camp Survey

The authors assessed knowledge about AIDS and its modes of transmission in Latino adults from northern California via a survey administered in 2000 to 461 women and 356 men from a community sample and 188 men from a labor camp sample. The majority of respondents viewed AIDS as a serious problem in their community. Knowledge about how AIDS is transmitted varied from accurate beliefs about the virus being transmitted by biomedical modes to inaccurate beliefs about its transmittal through casual contact. A multiple regression analysis identified three groups with the highest misconceptions about AIDS transmission: Latinos with low educational attainment, particularly men from labor camps; Latinos who were the oldest in the sample (40 to 64 years of age); and Latinos with low educational attainment who had not visited a doctor recently. These findings identify groups with high misconceptions about AIDS who will benefit from special outreach and education.

Risk ratings that do not measure probabilities

Survey questions regarding assessed survival chances are an often-used example of a risk rating scale for eliciting a probability assessment. The responses to such questions do exhibit several properties of probabilities, but differ in some key respects, resulting in relationships which are not only inconsistent with accurate beliefs, but also in which precision is sacrificed for ease of use. The Health and Retirement Study, for example, uses a 0 to 10 scale to measure self-assessed survival probabilities to a particular age. Transformation of these responses for use as a probability results in some patterns that are consistent with a model of imperfect information, or a monotonic transformation of imperfectly perceived risks, but more subtle analysis reveals inconsistencies with either of these theories, suggesting the scale is inappropriate for use as a probability measure. The age-related effects for female respondents are the most salient results that are inconsistent with use of the survey's response scale as representing a probability.

Cognitive Predictors of Children's Attitudes Toward Alcohol and Cocaine

ABSTRACT This study examined age differences in, and associations among, children's attitudes and intentions regarding alcohol and cocaine use and possible cognitive underpinnings of such orientations (basic familiarity with each substance, expectancies about short-term psychological and behavioral effects, beliefs about long-term health effects, and causal understanding of drug action). Among 217 first through sixth graders, attitudes and intentions were negative and became less negative with age for alcohol, but more negative with age for cocaine. The cognitive predictors contributed to the prediction of attitudes toward cocaine, but not alcohol. Negative attitudes toward cocaine were associated with being familiar with it, knowing its true long-term effects, and endorsing correct explanations of its behavioral effects. The cognitive predictors failed to significantly predict intentions to use alcohol or cocaine. Findings suggest that fostering accurate beliefs and understandings may promote stronger anti-drug orientations toward less familiar drugs such as cocaine.

Children's beliefs about long-term health effects of alcohol and cocaine use.

To assess age differences in children's beliefs about the long-term health effects of alcohol and cocaine, to use such beliefs to predict attitudes toward and intentions to use these substances, and to establish whether accurate beliefs are more predictive than inaccurate ones. Children ages 6 to 12 (N: = 217) responded to an open-ended question about the effects of long-term alcohol and cocaine use and to 12 structured questions asking whether each produces alcohol-like, cocaine-like, and tobacco-like effects. Differentiation among alcohol, cocaine, and tobacco effects was limited but increased with age. Beliefs about health effects had no impact on alcohol attitudes and intentions, but intentions to drink were stronger among older and white children. Anti-cocaine attitudes and intentions were associated with being older and non-White and with having accurate knowledge of cocaine's true health effects-but also with believing falsely that cocaine has tobacco-like effects and that drugs in general have catastrophic effects. With age, and as predicted by Werner's orthogenetic principle, children differentiated more sharply between substances. Although negative misconceptions can contribute to anti-drug attitudes and intentions, children should nonetheless be taught about the distinct effects of different substances on health.

Decision‐maker expectations and the value of climate prediction information: conceptual considerations and preliminary evidence

AbstractThis paper examines the commonly used assumption that decision‐makers possess accurate prior probability information about climate events that affect their well‐being, and illustrates the impact of that assumption on the valuation of prediction information. A survey of large producers in the Mid‐western United States is used to recover their prior beliefs about climate variables. It is found that producers systematically misrepresent the probabilities of climate events that materially affect their well‐being. In particular, the most common form of the miscalibration between actual and subjective probabilities is to overstate the likelihood of adverse events and understate the likelihood of favourable events. As a result, common methods for valuing prediction information are likely to understate the true value when recipients begin with less accurate prior beliefs. Copyright © 2000 Royal Meteorological Society

Consumer Perceptions of Commodity Characteristics: Implications for Choice and Well-being

Consumers base market choices on beliefs about the properties of commodities. Invoking Lancaster’s characteristics approach, we explore the implications for consumer well-being of such beliefs being incorrect. Following an examination of the welfare cost of inaccurate beliefs, we address the question: do more accurate beliefs necessarily result in greater well-being? The impacts of changes in prices and income on well-being are then explored and some implications are drawn for the use of compensating variation. Finally, we contrast alternative perspectives on what constitutes the appropriate measurement of welfare where consumers’ beliefs about what they are actually consuming are mistaken.

A Nonpragmatic Vindication of Probabilism

The pragmatic character of the Dutch book argument makes it unsuitable as an “epistemic” justification for the fundamental probabilist dogma that rational partial beliefs must conform to the axioms of probability. To secure an appropriately epistemic justification for this conclusion, one must explain what it means for a system of partial beliefs to accurately represent the state of the world, and then show that partial beliefs that violate the laws of probability are invariably less accurate than they could be otherwise. The first task can be accomplished once we realize that the accuracy of systems of partial beliefs can be measured on a gradational scale that satisfies a small set of formal constraints, each of which has a sound epistemic motivation. When accuracy is measured in this way it can be shown that any system of degrees of belief that violates the axioms of probability can be replaced by an alternative system that obeys the axioms and yet is more accurate in every possible world. Since epistemically rational agents must strive to hold accurate beliefs, this establishes conformity with the axioms of probability as a norm of epistemic rationality whatever its prudential merits or defects might be.

Chronic myofascial pain: Knowledge of diagnosis and satisfaction with treatment

Objective: To examine the relation between pain patients' knowledge of pain diagnosis and their satisfaction with pain treatment. It was hypothesized that myofascial pain (MP) patients would be less knowledgeable regarding their diagnosis and less satisfied with the results of pain treatment. Design: Cross-sectional. Setting: Multidisciplinary pain clinic. Patients: Patients ( n = 65) were divided into two groups after multidisciplinary assessment: MP patients ( n = 30) and a mixed group of chronic pain patients (MCP) ( n = 35) with neurologic or rheumatologic disorders. Main Outcome Measures: Patient self-report of their knowledge of pain diagnosis and scores on standardized measures of pain intensity, depressive symptoms, and functional disability. Results: MP patients were significantly less accurate in identifying their diagnosis and the source of their pain and were more likely to believe they suffered a physiologic disturbance “more serious and different” than their physicians had suggested. MP patients were also significantly more dissatisfied with the treatment for pain by physicians and reported particular dissatisfaction with the informational aspects of physician-patient communication. No group differences were obtained for measures of pain severity, depression, disability, pain duration, or compensation/litigation status. Conclusion: MP patients appear to have less accurate beliefs regarding their pain symptoms and express more dissatisfaction with physician efforts to treat their pain. These findings emphasize the importance of patient education as a component of chronic pain intervention, particularly for MP patients.

Colorectal screening patterns and perceptions of risk among African-American users of a community health center.

This study investigated risk perceptions and screening patterns for colorectal cancer among predominately low-income African-Americans age 50 and older who used a community health center. The majority of respondents either rated their risk as below average (36%) or did not know their risk (37%) for colorectal cancer. Individuals who provided a risk estimate versus those who did not know their risk were younger and held more accurate beliefs about colorectal cancer. Attributions of perceived risk best distinguished respondents who evaluated their risk to be below average versus average and above average. Compared to respondents who could not explain their risk, those who provided psychological, personal action, and heredity causes were more likely to view their risk as below average than average or above average. In comparison to national norms, these subjects reported higher frequencies of ever having had a digital rectal exam (DRE, 90%), fecal occult blood test (FOBT, 75%) and sigmoidoscopy (SIG, 33%). Moreover, 63%, 53%, and 81% reported their most recent screening for DRE, FOBT, and SIG, respectively, in accordance with ACS and NCI recommended guidelines. However, a subsequent medical audit failed to confirm these self-reports. These results suggest that: 1) educational efforts are needed to enhance knowledge and accuracy of risk perceptions for colorectal cancer; 2) further studies on attributions of risk are needed that may prove useful for developing intervention programs, and 3) studies need to interpret self-report data for colorectal cancer with caution.