The largest rural outbreak of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the US was centered in Scott County, Indiana, and linked to injection practices involving the opioid Opana ER (oxymorphone extended release [ER] reformulated). We examined supply trends using pharmacy transactions of Opana ER in Scott and all US counties from January 2007 to December 2019. We calculated the monthly morphine milligram equivalents (MME) of Opana ER (and its competitor OxyContin) in pharmacies using the Automation of Reports and Consolidated Orders System (ARCOS) database from the Washington Post. We modeled the MME rate per capita in Scott County and five geographic comparators in seven distinct time periods including the market introduction of abuse deterrent formulations of both drugs and the HIV outbreak period (circa 2014). After Opana ER introduction, transaction rates surged in Scott County, where annual OxyContin MMEs were already seven-fold higher than Indiana overall (CY2009: 46.8 vs. 6.8 MME/pop., respectively). Immediately after OxyContin's reformulation, the Opana ER growth rate in Scott County surpassed all geographic comparators modeled (~27 times faster than the US, 1.28 vs. 0.047 MME/pop/month, respectively). By 2012, prior to the outbreak, MMEs from Opana ER almost perfectly replaced the diminishing OxyContin supply. When Opana ER with INTAC was subsequently introduced, pharmacy transactions declined precipitously by nearly 50%, persisting through the HIV outbreak period and market withdrawal. Opana ER rapidly supplanted OxyContin in a vulnerable population that was at heightened risk for HIV who subsequently faced an immediate supply shock after its reformulation. Pharmacy transactions are critical for suspicious order monitoring and pharmacovigilance by US and international agencies especially during deleterious supply shocks in legal and illicit drug markets.
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