Greenhouse Gas Concentrations Research Articles

Evaluation of GHG Emissions on Climate of the Braced States in the Niger Delta

This study evaluates greenhouse gas emissions on the climate in the BRACED States of the Niger Delta. The emission of greenhouse gases leads to deforestation, reduced vegetation, and a decline in biodiversity. To achieve the study, an ex post facto research design was used. The study utilised field measurements and historical data to assess these factors. Data were collected and monitored from twelve distinct locations between September 2022 and February 2023. The findings indicate that Akwa Ibom had the lowest concentrations of greenhouse gas and climate variables. The concentrations of greenhouse gases and climate variables were found to be lowest in Akwa Ibom and Rivers States. Similarly, Rivers, Cross Rivers, and Edo States exhibited comparatively lower quantities of carbon dioxide emissions and low rainfall. The study's findings observed a strong correlation between climate (temperature and rainfall) and greenhouse gas emissions in the BRACED states. Statistical analysis at the P<0.05 level of significance indicates that greenhouse gas emissions account for around 32.5% of the observed variations. This analysis offers a method for determining the climate impact of GHG emissions. It is recommended that law on gas flaring activities should be brought to actions.

Balancing environmental sustainability: Socio-economic drivers and policy pathways in oil-importing nations

This paper explores the intricate interplay of socio-economic drivers influencing environmental sustainability in oil-importing countries, examining CO2 emissions and greenhouse gas concentrations over the period from 2000 to 2021. Employing the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) and Prais-Winsten regression method (PCSE), data from fifteen major oil-importing nations are scrutinized. The study identifies pivotal socio-economic factors, including environmental innovations, green energy adoption, and energy prices, as key drivers in mitigating emissions. Environmental innovations, catalyzing cleaner technologies, emerge as effective tools in curbing hazardous emissions and promoting green energy sources. The study underscores the trade-off between energy use and prices, advocating a strategic shift towards green energy adoption. It also highlights the adverse association between industrial and agricultural production with emissions. Policy interventions are recommended, emphasizing the need for cleaner technologies and the adoption of renewable energy practices, thus achieving a harmonious balance between economic development and environmental quality. The research offers valuable insights into the socio-economic dimensions of environmental sustainability, emphasizing the importance of well-balanced policies that align environmental innovations, environmental conservation, and energy transition in oil-importing nations within the broader context of human-environment interactions.

A Review on Global Warming

One of the most important environmental issues of our time is global warming, which is primarily caused by human activity. In order to provide a thorough examination of the phenomenon, this review paper will cover its fundamental causes, observed and anticipated effects on the Earth's climate and ecosystems, as well as proposed mitigating measures. The atmospheric emission of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O), is the main cause of global warming. The remarkable rise in greenhouse gas concentrations during the past century has been mostly attributed to the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, industrial operations, and agricultural activities. The effects of global warming are numerous and extensive. Increasing temperatures have sped up the melting of glaciers and polar ice caps, which has raised sea levels and increased the likelihood of coastal flooding. Extreme weather occurrences, such as heatwaves, droughts, and violent storms, have increased in frequency and have a negative effect on agriculture, water supplies, and vulnerable communities. Additionally, as ecosystems experience extraordinary shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns, biodiversity loss and ecosystem disruption are being seen. This paper presents a variety of potential mitigation tactics that could be used to alleviate the problems caused by global warming. Among these include switching to renewable energy sources, improving energy efficiency, putting reforestation and afforestation programmes into action, and applying sustainable agriculture methods. Additionally, international collaboration and policy frameworks are essential for promoting group initiatives. With significant effects on the environment and society, global warming continues to be a top priority. On a local, national, and international level, cooperation is required to address this complicated issue. This review emphasises how crucial it is to comprehend the underlying causes, effects, and mitigation strategies in order to effectively combat global warming and build a sustainable future for future generations

Climate Change and Soil Fertility: A Review of Strategies for a Sustainable Food Security in India

The long-term food security of humanity on Earth will be significantly influenced by the effects of climate change soils and then the agricultural production. In addition to being vulnerable to climate change, agriculture also contributes significantly to it. The article explores how soil fertility processes and qualities are impacted by climate change on a worldwide scale and adaptation and mitigation options for a sustainable food security. Due to the intricate relationship between soils and the climate system through nutrient and hydrologic cycles, it is anticipated that changes in the global climate may have an effect on soil fertility through changes in the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of the soil as a result of rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, and other factors.

Anthropogenic effects on tropical cyclones near Western Europe

There is less consensus on whether human activities have significantly altered tropical cyclone (TC) statistics, given the relatively short duration of reliable observed records. Understanding and projecting TC frequency change is more challenging in certain coastal regions with lower TC activity yet high exposure, such as Western Europe. Here, we show, with large-ensemble simulations, that the observed increase in TC frequency near Western Europe from 1966 to 2020 is likely linked to the anthropogenic aerosol effect. Under a future scenario featuring regionally controlled aerosol emissions and substantially increased greenhouse gas concentrations (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-85), our simulations show a potential decrease in TC frequency near Western Europe by the end of the 21st century. These contrasting trends in historical and future TC frequencies are primarily due to the rise for 1966–2020 and potentially subsequent fall for 2030–2100 in TC genesis frequency in the North Atlantic. The response of large-scale environmental conditions to anthropogenic forcing is found to be crucial in explaining the historical and future changes in TC frequency near Western Europe.

Assessing the current and future trends of climate extremes at Zarima subbasin North Western Ethiopia

Climate extreme events in Ethiopia have increased, impacting the country’s agriculture dependent economy. Localized studies on rainfall extremes provides valuable insights to develop mitigation measures. This study focuses on the analysis of rainfall extremes for the observed (1984–2018) and the future mid time period (2031–2065) and end time period (2066–2100) projected under RCP4.5: moderate emissions reduction scenario aiming to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations by the mid-21st century and RCP8.5: high emissions scenario with continued increase in greenhouse gas emissions throughout the twenty-first century. Trend analysis was done using R statistical software modified Man Kendell package. The result revealed that the observed total rainfall in wet days (PRCPTOT) showed insignificant declining trend across the subbasin. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, mid time period projections indicated increasing trends in PRCPTOT at Maytsebri, Adiremet and Debarik stations while decreasing trends expected at Ketema Niguse and Zarima stations. In the RCP4.5 end time period, Debarik and Zarima stations showed increasing trends while other stations exhibited decreasing trends. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, PRCPTOT showed insignificant decreasing trend except Ketema Niguse station which showed significant increasing trend during the mid time period. The observed annual maximum 1-day rainfall (RX1day) and annual RX5day rainfall had both positive and negative trends over subbasin. The RCP4.5 scenario projected declining trends in annual RX1day rainfall, while the RCP8.5 scenario projected increasing trends, except the end time projection of Debarik station. Consecutive dry days (CDD) increased and Consecutive wet days (CWD) decreased insignificantly in majority the subbasin. Projections indicated higher CDD and decreased CWD are expected in majority of the subbasin area. These finding implied that further investigation is required on the impact of climate extremes.

Did the Glasgow COP26 negotiations meet or miss Article 6 (carbon markets) of the Paris Agreement? A systematic review of the literature

AbstractThe Paris Agreement is an important milestone in international climate policy and the associated negotiations of the United Nations Climate Summit under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Article 6 of the Paris Agreement is a supplementary mechanism—regarding carbon markets—to reduce greenhouse gases and achieve the UNFCCC's main objective of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. The 2021 United Nations Climate Summit in Glasgow (COP26) played a key role in the pursuit of this goal. Via an overview of Article 6 negotiations in past COP summits and a systematic review and qualitative meta‐synthesis of the literature leading up to COP26, I identify three arguments involving Articles 6.2, 6.4, and 6.8 behind the selected literature. I substantiate these arguments based on the meta‐evaluation of the existing literature and propose a three‐stage meta‐evaluation of the arguments on Article 6 (carbon markets) of the Paris Agreement in the context of COP26 to ascertain if the negotiations were successful in leading to requisite agreements on Article 6. I conclude that future qualitative research should focus on Articles 6.4 and 6.8 of the Paris Agreement and examine the outcomes of future climate debates to see how ideas will flow through the negotiations regarding these two articles to pursue the goal of the UNFCCC under the Paris Agreement.Related ArticlesJihyung Joo, Jihyung, Jouni Paavola, and James Van Alstine. 2023. “The Divergence of South Korea's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) from the EU ETS: An Institutional Complementarity View.” Politics & Policy 51(6): 1155–73. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12566.Nunes Silva, Carlos. 2012. “Policy and Evidence in a Partisan Age: The Great Disconnect—By Paul Gary Wyckoff.” Politics & Policy 40(3): 541–43. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2012.00363.x.Robles, Pedro, and Daniel J. Mallinson. 2023. “Catching up with AI: Pushing toward a Cohesive Governance Framework.” Politics & Policy 51(3): 355–72. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12529.

An Innovative Prototype to Measure Carbon Dioxide, Ethylene, and Nitric and Nitrous Oxides in the Soil Air

ABSTRACT Agricultural intensification has increased the consumption of inputs, mainly fertilizers, which may increase emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). The improvement of our knowledge on GHG dynamics in the soil is mandatory to optimize the use of fertilizers and reduce environmental impacts. We developed an electronic sensor prototype based on Arduino to monitor concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), ethylene (C2H4), ammonia (NH3), and nitrogen oxides (N2O/NOx) in the soil air in a greenhouse experiment with soybean (Glycine max L.) under two treatments: single inoculation (Bradyrhizobium spp.) or triple co-inoculation (Bradyrhizobium spp. Azospirillum brasilense and Pseudomonas fluorescens) in a completely randomized design. One-way analysis of variance, as well as correlation between plant traits at 35 days of emergence and the average daily concentration of gases in the soil air were performed. Although not affecting plant growth or yield-related traits, co-inoculation increased CO2, while decreased NOx concentrations compared with single inoculation, whereas C2H4 emission changed with the plant growth stage. Although co-inoculation increased respiration, decreased N losses by denitrification, mitigating the total emissions of GHG. The prototype showed to be efficient for monitoring GHG across the experiment at a low cost and easy use, contributing for monitoring GHG concentrations in the soil air.

A preliminary integrated analysis of regional paleoclimate variations in China over the past ∼ 21 ka

In this study, we employ biological, geochemical and mineral, and physical proxies to quantitatively and semi-quantitatively reconstruct regional paleoclimate variations in China over the past ∼21 thousand years (ka). We have constructed state-of-the-art transfer functions between proxies and climatic variables in East Asia, revealing substantial paleoclimate variability, and demonstrate significant diversity of paleoclimate variations in regions of China over the past ∼21 ka. Compared with observational data between 1961 and 1990, averaged mean annual temperature (MAT) was ∼5 °C (3–8 °C) lower during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼21 ± 3 ka), and ∼ 2 °C (1–3 °C) higher during Holocene Optimum (HO, ±9 ka) in China; while averaged mean annual precipitation (MAP) and averaged summer precipitation varied between 30 and 150%, with enhanced seasonality during the warmer Holocene (8–5 ka). Our quantitative and semi-quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions reveal both similarities and contrasts with previous studies of regional temperature and precipitation variability. The most remarkable paleoclimate variability is recorded in the transitional zone between the humid monsoon and arid desert regions of central and northern China. We conducted a dynamic downscaling paleoclimate simulation with a regional climate model (RegCM4), using the output from the fully-forced transient simulation of the global climate (TraCE-21 K) as the prescribed boundary conditions, to simulate regional climate changes at high spatial resolution in China over the past ∼21 ka. The results improve paleoclimate simulations at regional scales, but reveal differences in comparison with TraCE-21 K, thereby highlighting uncertainties in the simulation modeling. Moreover, we compare proxy-based paleoclimate reconstructions and the output of TraCE-21 K to identify inconsistencies in relation to regional paleoclimate variations, and confirm a generally consistent warming trend in MAT from the LGM to the HO followed by a cooling trend during the late Holocene. An overall increase in both annual and summer precipitation is observed from LGM to Holocene. This general paleoclimate pattern is likely to have been driven by northern hemisphere ice volume and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (GHGs) during the last deglaciation, and boreal summer insolation during the Holocene. This study represents the first attempt to use multi sources and large datasets of proxy reconstructions and numerical simulations to evaluate regional paleoclimate variability in China since the LGM. Our research provides a comprehensive overview of climate change over the past 21 ka and underscores the critical importance of conducting high-resolution simulations and quantitative paleoclimate studies. This approach is essential for deciphering patterns of paleoclimate change that are currently poorly defined.

Seasonal dynamics and climatic influences of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4) and ammonia (NH3) concentrations on loose housing cattle shed

Measurement of gas concentrations is crucial for the calculation of emissions from livestock buildings. The study aimed to examine how the concentrations of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4) and ammonia (NH3) vary seasonally and influenced by climatic conditions in loose housing cattle sheds in India. Two dairy cow sheds with different layouts, floor types, and cleaning practices were selected for measurements during the summer, rainy, and winter seasons. The concentrations of CO2, CH4, and NH3 exhibited significant variations, ranging from 405 to 717 ppm for CO2, 0.01 to 16.12 ppm for CH4, and 0.00 to 1.90 ppm for NH3. The winter season showed higher levels of CO2 and CH4, while NH3 concentrations were higher during the summer season. Notable differences were observed in CO2 and CH4 levels between sheds during feeding, as well as in CO2 levels during cleaning activities. The study revealed a weak correlation between greenhouse gases, ammonia, and climatic conditions in the cattle sheds, except for a moderate positive correlation between CO2 and relative humidity during winter which means other factors such as housing design, facilities and practices play a significant role.

A Review of the Increasing Global Impact of Climate Change on Human Health and Approaches to Medical Preparedness.

At the end of 2023, the World Health Organization (WHO) identified climate change as the greatest threat to human health. Global climate change is due to rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses, primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels, mainly by populations in developed and developing countries. In 2022, the world experienced the highest temperatures for over 100,000 years. However, in 2022, global investment in fossil fuels increased by 10% and reached more than USD 1 trillion. The 2023 Lancet Commission report concluded that there has been little progress in protecting individuals from the adverse health effects of climate change. It is clear that global action against climate change needs to move more quickly, and the inequalities in the effects of climate change, including the impact on health, are increasing. This article aims to review the ongoing global impact of climate change on human health at individual and population levels, including recent initiatives and medical approaches to prepare for this increasing challenge.

Impacts of Local and Remote SST Warming on Summer Circulation Changes in the Western North Pacific

Abstract This study explores how future SST warming in remote ocean basins may affect the western North Pacific (WNP) wet season climate by applying a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model to conduct a series of numerical experiments. A marked precipitation and tropical cyclone (TC) activity reduction, as well as enhanced anticyclonic circulation, in the WNP is projected in AMIP experiments forced by SST change in a future warming scenario. The sensitivity experiments reveal that various SST warming phenomena (e.g., in the global SST warming pattern, the tropical ocean belt, the Indian Ocean, tropical Atlantic, the subtropical northeast Pacific) and the increase of greenhouse gas concentration could weaken the precipitation, TC activity, and circulation. By contrast, the SST warming in the WNP and eastern equatorial Pacific have opposite and mixed effects, respectively, and tend to weakly offset the dominant influences of remote ocean warming. These results indicate that the WNP, being the epicenter of the global teleconnection of divergent and rotational flow, is susceptible to the influence of the SST warming in remote ocean basins. The remote forcing as projected in future scenarios would overwhelm the enhancing effect of local SST warming and weaken the circulation, convection, and TC activity in the WNP. These findings further the understanding of how the decreased precipitation and enhanced subtropical high in the WNP may be easily triggered by remote SST warming as revealed in the AMIP-type simulations. How this effect would be affected by air-sea coupling needs further investigation.

Impacts of Local and Remote SST Warming on Summer Circulation Changes in the Western North Pacific

Abstract This study explores how future SST warming in remote ocean basins may affect the western North Pacific (WNP) wet season climate by applying a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model to conduct a series of numerical experiments. A marked precipitation and tropical cyclone (TC) activity reduction, as well as enhanced anticyclonic circulation, in the WNP is projected in AMIP experiments forced by SST change in a future warming scenario. The sensitivity experiments reveal that various SST warming phenomena (e.g., in the global SST warming pattern, the tropical ocean belt, the Indian Ocean, tropical Atlantic, the subtropical northeast Pacific) and the increase of greenhouse gas concentration could weaken the precipitation, TC activity, and circulation. By contrast, the SST warming in the WNP and eastern equatorial Pacific have opposite and mixed effects, respectively, and tend to weakly offset the dominant influences of remote ocean warming. These results indicate that the WNP, being the epicenter of the global teleconnection of divergent and rotational flow, is susceptible to the influence of the SST warming in remote ocean basins. The remote forcing as projected in future scenarios would overwhelm the enhancing effect of local SST warming and weaken the circulation, convection, and TC activity in the WNP. These findings further the understanding of how the decreased precipitation and enhanced subtropical high in the WNP may be easily triggered by remote SST warming as revealed in the AMIP-type simulations. How this effect would be affected by air-sea coupling needs further investigation.

An Inverse Modeling Approach for Retrieving High-Resolution Surface Fluxes of Greenhouse Gases from Measurements of Their Concentrations in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer

This study explores the potential of using Unmanned Aircraft Vehicles (UAVs) as a measurement platform for estimating greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes over complex terrain. We proposed and tested an inverse modeling approach for retrieving GHG fluxes based on two-level measurements of GHG concentrations and airflow properties over complex terrain with high spatial resolution. Our approach is based on a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model capable of determining the airflow parameters that affect the spatial distribution of GHG concentrations within the atmospheric boundary layer. The model is primarily designed to solve the forward problem of calculating the steady-state distribution of GHG concentrations and fluxes at different levels over an inhomogeneous land surface within the model domain. The inverse problem deals with determining the unknown surface GHG fluxes by minimizing the difference between measured and modeled GHG concentrations at two selected levels above the land surface. Several numerical experiments were conducted using surrogate data that mimicked UAV observations of varying accuracies and density of GHG concentration measurements to test the robustness of the approach. Our primary modeling target was a 6 km2 forested area in the foothills of the Greater Caucasus Mountains in Russia, characterized by complex topography and mosaic vegetation. The numerical experiments show that the proposed inverse modeling approach can effectively solve the inverse problem, with the resulting flux distribution having the same spatial pattern as the required flux. However, the approach tends to overestimate the mean value of the required flux over the domain, with the maximum errors in flux estimation associated with areas of maximum steepness in the surface topography. The accuracy of flux estimates improves as the number of points and the accuracy of the concentration measurements increase. Therefore, the density of UAV measurements should be adjusted according to the complexity of the terrain to improve the accuracy of the modeling results.

Carbon Market for Climate Projects in Russia: An Overview of Nature-Based and Technological Carbon Offsets

Climate projects can become one of the key tools for decarbonization in Russia. They have powerful potential in terms of solving the problems of reducing emissions and increasing the absorption of greenhouse gases, as well as monetization potential for businesses. Despite the geopolitical crisis and sanctions imposed on Russia, certain opportunities for implementing climate projects have remained accessible. This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the current status, including the regulations and approved methodologies, prospects, and challenges for climate projects in the carbon market in Russia. It also offers an overview of international carbon market mechanisms and analyses the advantages and disadvantages of the nature-based and technological solutions of climate projects for carbon sequestration. This, in turn, can facilitate the realization of future strategies for realizing the bigger potential of Russian climate projects in the domestic and international carbon markets. This research also provides up-to-date data on the current situation of the carbon market in Russia.

Carbon Market for Climate Projects in Russia: An Overview of Nature-Based and Technological Carbon Offsets

Climate projects can become one of the key tools for decarbonization in Russia. They have powerful potential in terms of solving the problems of reducing emissions and increasing the absorption of greenhouse gases, as well as monetization potential for businesses. Despite the geopolitical crisis and sanctions imposed on Russia, certain opportunities for implementing climate projects have remained accessible. This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the current status, including the regulations and approved methodologies, prospects, and challenges for climate projects in the carbon market in Russia. It also offers an overview of international carbon market mechanisms and analyses the advantages and disadvantages of the nature-based and technological solutions of climate projects for carbon sequestration. This, in turn, can facilitate the realization of future strategies for realizing the bigger potential of Russian climate projects in the domestic and international carbon markets. This research also provides up-to-date data on the current situation of the carbon market in Russia.

Fast retrieval of XCO2 over east Asia based on Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) spectral measurements

Abstract. The increase in greenhouse gas concentrations, particularly CO2, has significant implications for global climate patterns and various aspects of human life. Spaceborne remote sensing satellites play a crucial role in high-resolution monitoring of atmospheric CO2. However, the next generation of greenhouse gas monitoring satellites is expected to face challenges, particularly in terms of computational efficiency in atmospheric CO2 retrieval and analysis. To address these challenges, this study focuses on improving the speed of retrieving the column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of carbon dioxide (XCO2) using spectral data from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) satellite while still maintaining retrieval accuracy. A novel approach based on neural network (NN) models is proposed to tackle the nonlinear inversion problems associated with XCO2 retrievals. The study employs a data-driven supervised learning method and explores two distinct training strategies. Firstly, training is conducted using experimental data obtained from the inversion of the operational optimization model, which is released as the OCO-2 satellite products. Secondly, training is performed using a simulated dataset generated by an accurate forward calculation model. The inversion performance and prediction performance of the machine learning model for XCO2 are compared, analyzed, and discussed for the observed region over east Asia. The results demonstrate that the model trained on simulated data accurately predicts XCO2 in the target area. Furthermore, when compared to OCO-2 satellite product data, the developed XCO2 retrieval model not only achieves rapid predictions (<1 ms) with good accuracy (1.8 ppm or approximately 0.45 %) but also effectively captures sudden increases in XCO2 plumes near industrial emission sources. The accuracy of the machine learning model retrieval results is validated against reliable data from Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) sites, demonstrating its ability to effectively capture CO2 seasonal variations and annual growth trends.

Impacts of Climate change on soil microbial diversity, distribution and abundance

Climate change, driven by anthropogenic activities, has far-reaching consequences for our planet. Among its many impacts, changes in temperature, elevated carbon dioxide levels, and shifts in greenhouse gas concentrations significantly affect soil ecosystems. In particular, soil microbial communities play a pivotal role in nutrient cycling, organic matter decomposition, and overall soil health. Soil microbial communities respond differently to the effects of climate change, like elevated warming and precipitation. The change in climatic conditions is reported to be adversely affecting soil biological activity directly through either drying or wetting of soil or affecting their associated plants. This review delves into the intricate relationship between climate change and soil microbial abundance, diversity, and distribution. The paper also discusses climatic change pressure on soil enzymatic activity and microbial biomasses, as well as soil faunal activity, as they are key indicators of soil health in a changing climate. Soil microbial communities cope with climate change by changing their diversity and physiological characteristics and by changing their symbiotic plants, which indicates the role of soil microbes in withstanding the negative impact of climate change.

Declining trends in long-term Pinus pinea L. growth forecasts in Southwestern Spain

Warmer and drier climate is among the main factors of the declining processes reported and expected for the future in the Mediterranean forest ecosystems. Pinus pinea is one the main Mediterranean conifers and its largest populations are in SW Spain, providing multifunctional services. The sensitivity of this species to drought is known, but the potentiality of its productivity to decline in SW Spain has not been yet assessed. We modeled P. pinea growth with climate covariates and a large set of tree ring chronologies from the beginning of the 20th century to the 2010s. Then we forecast annual increments over the period 2030-2100 using regionalized estimates of a global change model in three scenarios of greenhouse gas concentration. The climatic conditions between winter and mid spring were the most significant for the model. The climate predictions indicated an increase of potential water stress, and our forecasts described downturn trends of the annual growth, more accentuated in the scenario with the highest emissions and temperatures. These are the first long-term forecasts of growth of P. pinea in SW Spain. Our model cannot be directly applied at higher latitudes, where previous studies have shown differences in climate-growth relationships, but provides a benchmark for research and forestry of the potential climate-driven decrease of productivity of the P. pinea populations in the Southern Iberian Peninsula.

Концепция энергетического перехода: история понятия и эволюция явления

Four key indicators of climate change – greenhouse gas concentrations, sea level rise, heat and ocean acidification – are setting new records every year. One of the tools for limiting global warming on the planet is the energy transition, that is, the transition from a fossil fuel-based energy structure to one that produces very limited, if not zero carbon emissions. The aim of the article is to examine the concept of energy transition through the prism of historical evolution. Methods: system analysis, comparison, generalization, systematization. Results: the causes and essence of the energy transition phenomenon are considered. Special attention is paid to the causes and trends of the fourth energy transition. The problem of energy transition risks in the modern geopolitical and socio-economic environment is touched upon. Conclusions: from the historical point of view, energy transitions are not something new. However, today the development of countries on effective scenarios to combat climate change requires efforts both in the field of international cooperation and in the field of achieving domestic political consensus, i.e. the formation of political, public and expert opinion that shares the principles of energy transition.