Absolute Risk Assessment Research Articles

Operationalizing shared decision making in clinical practice

Shared decision-making (SDM) requires a clear-eyed view of evidence certainty, context, and equipoise in clinical care. This paradigm of care builds on the foundational ethical principle of patient autonomy, further leveraging beneficence, nonmaleficence, and justice to provide bespoke care in the appropriate clinical setting. When evidence is carefully evaluated together with acceptability and feasibility, equity, cost-effectiveness, resources, and patient preferences, an individualized assessment of the trade-off between possible benefits and harms can optimize patient management. In the setting of a conditional recommendation, it is appropriate to engage in SDM with patient partners, to the extent each patient is willing and able to engage in the SDM process. Three conversations inform SDM and include team talk, option talk, and decision talk with discussion of the plan of care. During these conversations, clear communication strategies that are specific, measurable, achievable, realistic, time sensitive, and provide assessment of absolute (not just relative) risk are important to provide necessary education to patient partners. Follow-up is key to ensure that decisions lead to effective treatment. Through this process, it is necessary to minimize cognitive overload and promote a minimally disruptive medicine approach. The acronym “HOW” promotes a holistic appraisal of evidence in context, open-minded teamwork with patients and families, and willingness to be a listening presence while serving as a partner and guide and appreciating the multidimensional and unique nature of each individual. SDM is and will continue to remain a cornerstone of appropriate medical care in settings of clinical equipoise.

Absolute cardiovascular risk assessment using ‘real world’ clinic blood pressures compared to standardized unobserved and ambulatory methods: an observational study

Clinic blood pressure (BP) is recommended for absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment. However, in ‘real-world’ settings, clinic BP measurement is unstandardised and less reliable compared to more rigorous methods but the impact for absolute CVD risk assessment is unknown. This study aimed to determine the difference in absolute CVD risk assessment using real-world clinic BP compared to standardised BP methods. Participants were patients (n = 226, 59 ± 15 years; 58% female) with hypertension referred to a BP clinic for assessment. ‘Real-world’ clinic BP was provided by the referring doctor. All participants had unobserved automated office BP (AOBP) and 24-h ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM) measured at the clinic. Absolute CVD risk was calculated (Framingham) using systolic BP from the referring doctor (clinic BP), AOBP and ABPM, with agreement assessed by Kappa statistic. Clinic systolic BP was 18 mmHg than AOBP and daytime ABPM and 22 mmHg higher than 24-h ABPM (p < 0.001). Subsequently, absolute CVD risk scores using clinic BP were higher compared to AOBP, daytime ABPM and 24-h ABPM (10.4 ± 8.1%, 7.8 ± 6.4%, 7.8 ± 6.3%, and 7.3 ± 6.1%, respectively, P < 0.001). As a result, more participants were classified as high CVD risk using clinic BP (n = 89, 40%) compared with AOBP (n = 44, 20%) daytime ABPM (n = 38, 17%) and 24-h ABPM (n = 38, 17%) (p < 0.001) with weak agreement in risk classification (κ = 0.57[0.45–0.69], κ = 0.52[0.41–0.64] and κ = 0.55[0.43–0.66], respectively). Real-world clinic BP was higher and classified twice as many participants at high CVD risk compared to AOBP or ABPM. Given the challenges to high-quality BP measurement in clinic, more rigorous BP measurement methods are needed for absolute CVD risk assessment.

Implementing absolute cardiovascular disease risk assessment into pathology collection services.

Pathology services represent an ideal setting to integrate absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation when patients attend for routine cholesterol testing. This study aimed to explore the process of implementing CVD risk estimation into point-of-care service delivery by pathology staff to inform future implementation and sustainability. A new service for CVD risk estimation via a self-directed screening station was implemented into 14 pathology service sites across Tasmania, Australia. Before implementation, observations at pathology services (n = 26) and semi-structured interviews were undertaken with 26 pathology staff (88% female, 77% aged 41-60 years) to identify factors that could impact implementation of the service. The process of implementation was then evaluated using participant observations and clinical trial recruitment data. Transcripts and field notes were analysed thematically according to the Medical Research Council Framework and used to develop a programme logic model to understand how the service could be adapted to be successfully integrated into routine workflow at pathology services. Eight key themes were identified during the pre-implementation phase as important factors that could impact upon integration of CVD risk estimation into pathology services. Themes related to factors within the organisation, including available resources, logistics and workflow, as well as having sufficient time to complete the intervention. Additional factors related to the individual motivations of staff, collaborative leadership and patient characteristics. Success of implementation varied among sites, requiring the trialling of different strategies to support uptake of the service and patient recruitment. Implementing CVD risk estimation into point-of-care pathology services required an understanding of the core implementation components specific to each context, and for implementation strategies to be targeted to the individual and organisational contexts. The generated programme logic model may be useful in guiding future implementation endeavours within these services and aiding the selection of apt implementation strategies. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04896021, registered 19/05/2021, https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04896021.

Individualized Risk of CKD Progression among US Adults.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is currently defined using glomerular filtration rate (GFR) or albuminuria. This is based on the relative risk of mortality and kidney outcomes compared to a healthy population and does not consider an individual's absolute risk of CKD progression. Using National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data from 1999-2020, we characterized the individual-level absolute 3-year risk of ≥40% decline in estimated GFR (eGFR, mL/min/1.73 m2) or kidney failure (3-year risk) among US adults. We categorized the 3-year risk and considered ≥5% high risk. Among 199.81 million US adults, 8.42 million (4%) had a 3-year risk ≥5%, including 1.04 million adults without CKD (eGFR ≥60 and albuminuria <30 mg/g). These high-risk adults without CKD as currently defined had risk factors including hypertension (98%), heart failure (72%), and diabetes (44%). 15.51 million adults had CKD with preserved eGFR (eGFR ≥60 and albuminuria ≥30 mg/g)-3.73 million had a 3-year risk ≥5%, 41% of whom did not have diabetes and thus would not be screened for albuminuria using current screening recommendations. The 3-year risk of CKD progression was low (risk <5%) in 94% of the 5.66 million US adults with CKD stage G3a-A1 (eGFR 45 to <60 and albuminuria <30 mg/g). Assessment of the individual's absolute risk of CKD progression allows further risk stratification of patients with CKD and identifies individuals without CKD, as currently defined, that are at high risk of CKD progression.

Managing hypercholesterolaemia.

Hypercholesterolaemia is one of the most common conditions treated by clinicians in Australia. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) plays a causal role in the development and progression of atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease. Every 1 mmol/L reduction in LDL-C concentration is associated with a 21 to 25% reduction in the relative risk of prospective atherosclerotic cardiovascular events, and emerging evidence suggests this benefit increases over time. Absolute cardiovascular risk assessment identifies patients likely to derive the most benefit from lowering LDL-C concentration, and helps determine the intensity of their treatment regimens and targets. Optimal management of LDL-C may require combination treatment with multiple classes of drugs.

Implementing decision aids for cardiovascular disease prevention: stakeholder interviews and case studies in Australian primary care.

Australian cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend absolute CVD risk assessment, but less than half of eligible patients have the required risk factors recorded due to fragmented implementation over the last decade. Co-designed decision aids for general practitioners (GPs) and consumers have been developed that improve knowledge barriers to guideline-recommended CVD risk assessment and management. This study used a stakeholder consultation process to identify and pilot test the feasibility of implementation strategies for these decision aids in Australian primary care. This mixed methods study included: (1) stakeholder consultation to map existing implementation strategies (2018-20); (2) interviews with 29 Primary Health Network (PHN) staff from all Australian states and territories to identify new implementation opportunities (2021); (3) pilot testing the feasibility of low, medium, and high resource implementation strategies (2019-21). Framework Analysis was used for qualitative data and Google analytics provided decision support usage data over time. Informal stakeholder discussions indicated a need to partner with existing programs delivered by the Heart Foundation and PHNs. PHN interviews identified the importance of linking decision aids with GP education resources, quality improvement activities, and consumer-focused prevention programs. Participants highlighted the importance of integration with general practice processes, such as business models, workflows, medical records and clinical audit software. Specific implementation strategies were identified as feasible to pilot during COVID-19: (1) low resource: adding website links to local health area guidelines for clinicians and a Heart Foundation toolkit for primary care providers; (2) medium resource: presenting at GP education conferences and integrating the resources into audit and feedback reports; (3) high resource: auto-populate the risk assessment and decision aids from patient records via clinical audit software. This research identified a wide range of feasible strategies to implement decision aids for CVD risk assessment and management. The findings will inform the translation of new CVD guidelines in primary care. Future research will use economic evaluation to explore the added value of higher versus lower resource implementation strategies.

Novel Prediction Equations for Absolute Risk Assessment of Total Cardiovascular Disease Incorporating Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic Health: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association.

Cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome is a novel construct recently defined by the American Heart Association in response to the high prevalence of metabolic and kidney disease. Epidemiological data demonstrate higher absolute risk of both atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) and heart failure as an individual progresses from CKM stage 0 to stage 3, but optimal strategies for risk assessment need to be refined. Absolute risk assessment with the goal to match type and intensity of interventions with predicted risk and expected treatment benefit remains the cornerstone of primary prevention. Given the growing number of therapies in our armamentarium that simultaneously address all 3 CKM axes, novel risk prediction equations are needed that incorporate predictors and outcomes relevant to the CKM context. This should also include social determinants of health, which are key upstream drivers of CVD, to more equitably estimate and address risk. This scientific statement summarizes the background, rationale, and clinical implications for the newly developed sex-specific, race-free risk equations: PREVENT (AHA Predicting Risk of CVD Events). The PREVENT equations enable 10- and 30-year risk estimates for total CVD (composite of atherosclerotic CVD and heart failure), include estimated glomerular filtration rate as a predictor, and adjust for competing risk of non-CVD death among adults 30 to 79 years of age. Additional models accommodate enhanced predictive utility with the addition of CKM factors when clinically indicated for measurement (urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio and hemoglobin A1c) or social determinants of health (social deprivation index) when available. Approaches to implement risk-based prevention using PREVENT across various settings are discussed.

Stereoselective study on chiral fungicide metconazole in four kinds of fruits: Absolute configuration, SFC-MS/MS enantioseparation, degradation and risk assessment

Metconazole is a novel chiral fungicide with two chiral carbon atoms, but the research on its stereoselective behavior is limited. Therefore, the stereoselective behaviors of metconazole in four fruits, including grape, peach, pear and jujube, were summarized in this study. After determining the absolute configuration of metconazole stereoisomers, a chiral separation method through supercritical fluid chromatography/tandem triple quadrupole mass spectrometry was first developed, which combined an improved QuEChERS method obtained the recoveries of 71.6–113 % with RSD ≤ 19.8 %. The LOD and LOQ were 4.30–95.9 and 10.5–143.2 ng/kg, respectively. Different stereoselective and diastereoselective behaviors were observed in four fruits. Dietary risk assessments of rac-metconazole were performed in populations with different ages and genders. Both acute (RQa, 0.0124–0.140 %) and chronic (HQ, 0.0234–0.0794 %) intake risks were acceptable. The results of this study would contribute to more complete risk assessments of metconazole and provide data for chiral studies.

Impact of lifestyle-based interventions on absolute cardiovascular disease risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

The objective of the review was to synthesize the evidence of the effectiveness of lifestyle-based interventions for mitigating absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Evidence-based guidelines recommend employing an absolute CVD risk score to inform the selection and intensity of preventive interventions. However, studies employing this strategy have reported mixed results, hence the need for a systematic review of the current evidence. Studies published in English that included a lifestyle-based intervention to mitigate CVD risk were considered. Studies were eligible if they enrolled individuals aged ≥18 years, with no history of CVD at baseline. The primary outcome was change in absolute CVD risk score post-intervention. PubMed, Embase, and CINAHL searches were conducted from database inception to February 2022. The trial registers searched included Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and ClinicalTrials.gov. Searches for unpublished studies/gray literature were conducted in ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Global, GreyLit Report, and OCLC First Search Proceedings. Two independent reviewers selected the studies and critically appraised them for methodological quality using JBI tools. Data extraction was performed for main outcome variables. Data were presented using separate pooled statistical meta-analysis for quasi-experimental and randomized clinical trials. Random effects models were employed in the analyses. Effect sizes (Cohen's d) were expressed as standardized mean difference at 95% CI. Heterogeneity was assessed via Cochran's Q statistic, and the inconsistency index ( I2 ) was used to describe variability in effect estimates due to heterogeneity rather than sampling error. Twenty-nine studies with a total sample of 5490 adults with no CVD at baseline were included. Fifteen were randomized controlled trials (RCTs; n=3605) and 14 were quasi-experimental studies (n=1885). The studies were conducted in Europe (n=18), the United States (n = 5), Asia (n=3), Mexico (n=1), Canada (n = 1), and Australia (n=1) and included the following lifestyle interventions: diet, physical activity, motivational interviewing, problem-solving, psychological counseling, cardiovascular risk assessment and feedback, health self-management education, and peer support. Six validated absolute CVD risk assessment tools were used to measure the study outcomes, including Framingham, SCORE, Heart Health Risk Assessment Score, Dundee, ASSIGN, and The UK Prospective Diabetes Study risk score. Overall, the methodological rigor of the RCTs and quasi-experimental studies was high. Of the 15 RCTs included in the meta-analysis, lifestyle intervention was favored over control in reducing absolute CVD risk score (Cohen's d = -0.39; P =0.032; Z= -2.14; I2 = 96). Similarly, in the 14 quasi-experimental studies, the absolute CVD risk score after lifestyle intervention was significantly lower compared to baseline (Cohen's d = -0.39; P <0.001; Z= -3.54; I2= 88). RCTs that combined diet and physical activity reported no significant impact on absolute CVD risk score, but those that used either intervention independently reported significant improvement in the absolute CVD risk score. There is evidence supporting the positive impact of lifestyle modification on absolute CVD risk score in adult populations without CVD. Our analysis further suggests that diet and physical activity had significant impact on absolute CVD risk, and a variety of validated screening tools can be used to monitor, evaluate, and communicate changes in absolute risk score after lifestyle modification. A Spanish-language version of the abstract of this review is available [ http://links.lww.com/SRX/A29 ].

Absolute cardiovascular risk assessment by Australian early-career general practitioners: a cross-sectional study

ObjectiveTo determine the prevalence and associations of general practice registrars’ performing absolute cardio-vascular risk (ACVR) assessment (ACVRa).DesignA cross-sectional study employing data (2017–2018) from the Registrar Clinical Encounters in Training project,...

Assessment of absolute risk of life-threatening cardiac events in long QT syndrome patients.

BackgroundRisk stratification in long QT syndrome (LQTS) patients is important for optimizing patient care and informing clinical decision making. We developed a risk prediction algorithm with prediction of 5-year absolute risk of the first life-threatening arrhythmic event [defined as aborted cardiac arrest, sudden cardiac death, or appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) shock] in LQTS patients, accounting for individual risk factors and their changes over time.MethodsRochester-based LQTS Registry included the phenotypic cohort consisting of 1,509 LQTS patients with a QTc ≥ 470 ms, and the genotypic cohort including 1,288 patients with single LQT1, LQT2, or LQT3 mutation. We developed two separate risk prediction models which included pre-specified time-dependent covariates of beta-blocker use, syncope (never, syncope while off beta blockers, and syncope while on beta blockers), and sex by age < and ≥13 years, baseline QTc, and genotype (for the genotypic cohort only). Follow-up started from enrollment in the registry and was censored at patients’ 50s birthday, date of death due to reasons other than sudden cardiac death, or last contact, whichever occurred first. The predictive models were externally validated in an independent cohort of 1,481 LQTS patients from Pavia, Italy.ResultsIn Rochester dataset, there were 77 endpoints in the phenotypic cohort during a median follow-up of 9.0 years, and 47 endpoints in the genotypic cohort during a median follow-up of 9.8 years. The time-dependent extension of Harrell’s generalized C-statistics for the phenotypic model and genotypic model were 0.784 (95% CI: 0.740–0.827) and 0.785 (95% CI: 0.721–0.849), respectively, in the Rochester cohort. The C-statistics obtained from external validation in the Pavia cohort were 0.700 (95% CI: 0.610–0.790) and 0.711 (95% CI: 0.631–0.792) for the two models, respectively. Based on the above models, an online risk calculator estimating a 5-year risk of life-threatening arrhythmic events was developed.ConclusionThis study developed two risk prediction algorithms for phenotype and genotype positive LQTS patients separately. The estimated 5-year absolute risk can be used to quantify a LQTS patient’s risk of developing life-threatening arrhythmic events and thus assisting in clinical decision making regarding prophylactic ICD therapy.

Health risk assessment of PM2.5 heavy metals in county units of northern China based on Monte Carlo simulation and APCS-MLR

The key areas of China's urbanization process have gradually shifted from urban areas to county-level units. Correspondingly, air pollution in county towns may be heavier than in urban areas, which has led to a lack of understanding of the pollution situation in such areas. In view of this, 236 PM2.5 filter samples were collected in Pingyao, north of the Fen-Wei Plain, one of the most polluted areas in China. Monte Carlo simulation was used to solve the serious uncertainties of traditional HRA, and the coupling technology of absolute principal component score-multiple linear regression (APCS-MLR) and health risk assessment (HRA) is used to quantitatively analyze the health risks of pollution sources. The results showed that PM2.5 concentration was highest in autumn, 3.73 times the 24 h guideline recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). Children were more susceptible to heavy metals in the county-level unit, with high hazard quotient (HQ) values of Pb being the dominant factor leading to an increased non-carcinogenic risk. A significant carcinogenic risk was observed for all groups in autumn in Pingyao, with exposure to Ni in the outdoor environment being the main cause. Vehicle emissions and coal combustion were identified as two major sources of health threats. In short, China's county-level population, about one-tenth of the world's population, faces far more health risks than expected.

Can existing electronic medical records be used to quantify cardiovascular risk at point of care?

Using electronic data for cardiovascular risk stratification could help in prioritising healthcare access and optimise cardiovascular prevention. To determine whether assessment of absolute cardiovascular risk (Australian absolute cardiovascular disease risk (ACVDR)) and short-term ischaemic risk (History, ECG, Age, Risk factors, and Troponin (HEART) score) is possible from available data in Electronic Medical Record (EMR) and My Health Record (MHR) of patients presenting with acute cardiac symptoms to a Rapid Access Cardiology Clinic (RACC). Audit of EMR and MHR on 200 randomly selected adults who presented to RACC between 1 March 2017 and 4 February 2020. The main outcomes were the proportion of patients for which ACVDR score and HEART score could be calculated. Mean age was 55.2 ± 17.8 years and 43% were female. Most (85%) were referred from emergency for chest pain (52%). Forty-six percent had hypertension, 35% obesity, 20% diabetes mellitus, 17% ischaemic heart disease and 18% were current smokers. There was no significant difference in MHR accessibility with age, gender and number of comorbidities. An ACVDR score could be estimated for 17.5% (EMR) and 0% (MHR) of patients. None had complete data to estimate HEART score in either EMR or MHR. Most commonly missing variables for ACVDR score were blood pressure (MHR) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (EMR), and for HEART score the missing variables were body mass index and comorbidities (MHR and EMR). Significant gaps are apparent in electronic medical data capture of key variables to perform cardiovascular risk assessment. Medical data capture should prioritise the collection of clinically important data to help address gaps in cardiovascular management.

Visit-to-visit fasting blood glucose variability and lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease: a prospective study

AimsPrevious studies suggested an adverse association between higher fasting blood glucose (FBG) variability and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Lifetime risk provides an absolute risk assessment during the remainder of an individual’s life. However, the association between FBG variability and the lifetime risk of CVD is uncertain.ObjectiveWe aimed to investigate the effect of the visit-to-visit FBG variability on the lifetime risk of CVD.MethodsThis study included participants from the Kailuan Study who did not have CVD at index ages 35, 45, and 55 years. The FBG variability was defined as the coefficient of variation (CV) of three FBG values that were measured during the examination periods of 2006–2007, 2008–2009, and 2010–2011. We used a modified Kaplan-Merrier method to estimate lifetime risk of CVD according to tertiles of FBG variability.ResultsAt index age 35 years, the study sample comprised 46,018 participants. During a median follow-up of 7.0 years, 1889 participants developed CVD events. For index age 35 years, participants with high FBG variability had higher lifetime risk of CVD (32.5%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 28.9–36.1%), compared with intermediate (28.3%; 95% CI: 25.5 –31.1%) and low (26.3%; 95% CI: 23.0–29.5%) FBG variability. We found that higher FBG variability was associated with increased lifetime risk of CVD in men but not women. Similar patterns were observed at index ages 45 and 55 years.ConclusionsHigher FBG variability was associated with increased lifetime risk of CVD at each index age. Focusing on the FBG variability may provide an insight to the clinical utility for reducing the lifetime risk of CVD.

Case Study of Expected Loss Failure Mode and Effect Analysis Model Based on Maintenance Data

Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is one of the most widely employed pre-evaluation techniques to avoid risks during the product design and manufacturing phases. Risk priority number (RPN), a risk assessment indicator used in FMEA, is widely used in the field due to its simple calculation process, but its limitations as an absolute risk assessment indicator have been pointed out. There has also been criticism of the unstructured nature and lack of systematicity in the FMEA procedures. This work proposes an expected loss-FMEA (EL-FMEA) model that organizes FMEA procedures and structures quantitative risk assessment metrics. In the EL-FMEA model, collectible maintenance record data is defined and based on this, the failure rate of components and systems and downtime and uptime of the system are calculated. Moreover, based on these calculated values, the expected economic loss is computed considering the failure detection time. It also provides an alternative coefficient to evaluate whether or not a detection system is installed to improve the expected loss of failure. Finally, a case study was conducted based on the maintenance record data, and the application procedure of the EL-FMEA model was presented in detail, and the practicality of this model was verified through the results.

Absolute mortality risk assessment of COVID-19 patients: the Khorshid COVID Cohort (KCC) study

BackgroundAlready at hospital admission, clinicians require simple tools to identify hospitalized COVID-19 patients at high risk of mortality. Such tools can significantly improve resource allocation and patient management within hospitals. From the statistical point of view, extended time-to-event models are required to account for competing risks (discharge from hospital) and censoring so that active cases can also contribute to the analysis.MethodsWe used the hospital-based open Khorshid COVID Cohort (KCC) study with 630 COVID-19 patients from Isfahan, Iran. Competing risk methods are used to develop a death risk chart based on the following variables, which can simply be measured at hospital admission: sex, age, hypertension, oxygen saturation, and Charlson Comorbidity Index. The area under the receiver operator curve was used to assess accuracy concerning discrimination between patients discharged alive and dead.ResultsCause-specific hazard regression models show that these baseline variables are associated with both death, and discharge hazards. The risk chart reflects the combined results of the two cause-specific hazard regression models. The proposed risk assessment method had a very good accuracy (AUC = 0.872 [CI 95%: 0.835–0.910]).ConclusionsThis study aims to improve and validate a personalized mortality risk calculator based on hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The risk assessment of patient mortality provides physicians with additional guidance for making tough decisions.

National Heart Foundation of Australia: position statement on coronary artery calcium scoring for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in Australia.

IntroductionThis position statement considers the evolving evidence on the use of coronary artery calcium scoring (CAC) for defining cardiovascular risk in the context of Australian practice and provides advice to health professionals regarding the use of CAC scoring in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in Australia.Main recommendations: CAC scoring could be considered for selected people with moderate absolute cardiovascular risk, as assessed by the National Vascular Disease Prevention Alliance (NVDPA) absolute cardiovascular risk algorithm, and for whom the findings are likely to influence the intensity of risk management. (GRADE evidence certainty: Low. GRADE recommendation strength: Conditional.)CAC scoring could be considered for selected people with low absolute cardiovascular risk, as assessed by the NVDPA absolute cardiovascular risk algorithm, and who have additional risk-enhancing factors that may result in the underestimation of risk. (GRADE evidence certainty: Low. GRADE recommendation strength: Conditional.)If CAC scoring is undertaken, a CAC score of 0 AU could reclassify a person to a low absolute cardiovascular risk status, with subsequent management to be informed by patient–clinician discussion and follow contemporary recommendations for low absolute cardiovascular risk. (GRADE evidence certainty: Very low. GRADE recommendation strength: Conditional.)If CAC scoring is undertaken, a CAC score > 99 AU or ≥ 75th percentile for age and sex could reclassify a person to a high absolute cardiovascular risk status, with subsequent management to be informed by patient–clinician discussion and follow contemporary recommendations for high absolute cardiovascular risk. (GRADE evidence certainty: Very low. GRADE recommendation strength: Conditional.) Changes in management as a result of this statementCAC scoring can have a role in reclassification of absolute cardiovascular risk for selected patients in Australia, in conjunction with traditional absolute risk assessment and as part of a shared decision‐making approach that considers the preferences and values of individual patients.

FEASIBILITY AND ACCEPTABILITY OF A NOVEL INTEGRATION OF ABSOLUTE CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE RISK ASSESSMENT INTO ROUTINE BLOOD CHOLESTEROL TESTING

Objective: Absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment is recommended for primary prevention of CVD, yet uptake in general practice is limited. Lipid profile requests at pathology services provides an opportunity to improve uptake by integrating absolute CVD risk assessment with this service. This study aimed to assess the feasibility of such an additional service. Design and method: 299 participants (aged 45–74 years) referred to pathology services for blood cholesterol had variables required to determine absolute CVD risk measured (blood pressure, age, sex, smoking and diabetes status). Data were recorded via self-report on a computer-based application with minimal direction from staff. The absolute risk score was communicated via the report sent to the referring medical practitioner as per usual practice. Evaluation questionnaires were completed immediately post visit and at 1-, 3- and 6-month follow-up via telephone (n = 262). Results: Absolute CVD risk reports were issued for 90% of participants. Most participants (95%) reported that the length of time for the pathology service assessment was acceptable, and 91% that the self-directed computer-based application was easy to use. 78% reported a preference for pathology services to conduct absolute CVD risk assessment. Only 2% preferred a medical practitioner. Of follow-up participants, 202 (75%) had a consultation with a medical practitioner, during which, aspects of CVD risk prevention were discussed (cholesterol and blood pressure 74% and 69% of the time, respectively). Conclusions: Measurement of absolute CVD risk in pathology services is feasible, highly acceptable among middle to older adults and may increase uptake of guideline-directed care in general practice.

Relationship between plasma high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and traditional cardiovascular risk factors among active-duty military personnel in the Republic of Serbia

Background/Aim. Approximately one-third of individuals with only one cardiovascular (CV) risk factor or without any, as well as 40% of individuals with a concentration of cholesterol less than average, die from CV diseases (CVD). Recent studies underlined the significant role of inflammation in atherosclerosis and its complications. The aim of this study was to analyze the association of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) with traditional risk factors for coronary heart disease. This is the first such study in Serbia. Methods. This is an observational cross-sectional study, which included active-duty military personnel of similar socio-epidemiological and economic characteristics. Plasma hs-CRP and traditional CV risk factors were evaluated. The relative CV risk was staged as low (hs-CRP &lt; 1 mg/L), intermediate (hs-CRP between 1 and 3 mg/L), and high (hs-CRP &gt; 3 mg/L). The Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) system was used for absolute CV risk assessment and total risk (fatal and non-fatal events). Results. The study included 205 participants, aver-age age of 39 (35?43) years, with median and interquartile range values of hs-CRP 0.80 mg/L (0.43?1.75 mg/L), with average hs-CRP values of 0.71 mg/L in participants younger than 40 years of age and 1.2 mg/L in the older than 40 years. The difference in hs-CRP values between these two groups was statistically significant (p = 0.006). There was a significant positive correlation between hs-CRP and age (r = 0.266, p &lt; 0.001), weight (r = 0.223, p = 0.001), body mass index (BMI) (r = 0.344, p &lt; 0.001), diastolic hypertension (r = 0.190, p = 0.007), LDL cholesterol (r = 0.152, p = 0.032), triglycerides (r = 0.144, p = 0.039), number of risk factors (r = 0.210, p &lt; 0.003), as well as negative correlation with HDL cholesterol concentration (r = -0.148, p &lt; 0.035). There was no significant correlation between hs- CRP concentration and total cholesterol (r = 0.131, p = 0.062). According to hs-CRP values, high CVD risk was found in 17.7% of participants older than 40 years of age, and based on SCORE system staging, 90% of participants have intermediate CVD risk. The results of stepwise multiple regression analyses showed that BMI was independently associated with an hs-CRP concentration in the group younger than 40 years of age. Among the older participants, age was found to be associated with concentration of fibrinogen. Conclusion. In the population of active military personnel in the Republic of Serbia, hs-CRP is correlated with some of the risk factors for CVD, and only BMI is in-dependently correlated with hs-CRP in those under 40 years of age. Levels of plasma hs-CRP are increased with aging, implying that hs-CRP measurement may provide a more ac-curate assessment of the individual overall risk profile for CVD in the Serbian military personnel population.

Absolute risk assessment for guiding cardiovascular risk management in a chest pain clinic.

To assess the efficacy of a pro-active, absolute cardiovascular risk-guided approach to opportunistically modifying cardiovascular risk factors in patients without coronary ischaemia attending a chest pain clinic. Prospective, randomised, open label, blinded endpoint study. The rapid access chest pain clinic of Royal Hobart Hospital, a tertiary hospital. Patients who presented to the chest pain clinic between 1 July 2014 and 31 December 2017 who had intermediate to high absolute cardiovascular risk scores (5-year risk ≥8%). Patients with known cardiac disease or from groups with clinically determined high risk of cardiovascular disease were excluded. The primary endpoint was change in 5-year absolute risk score (Australian absolute risk calculator) at follow-up (at least 12 months after baseline assessment). Secondary endpoints were changes in lipid profile, blood pressure, smoking status, and body mass index, and major adverse cardiovascular events. The mean change in risk at follow-up was +0.4 percentage points (95% CI, -0.8 to 1.5 percentage points) for the 98 control group patients and -2.4 percentage points (95% CI, -1.5 to -3.4 percentage points) for the 91 intervention group patients; the between-group difference in change was 2.7 percentage points (95% CI, 1.2-4.1 percentage points). Mean changes in lipid profile, systolic blood pressure, and smoking status were larger for the intervention group, but not statistically different from those for the control group. An absolute cardiovascular risk-guided, pro-active risk factor management strategy employed opportunistically in a chest pain clinic significantly improved 5-year absolute cardiovascular risk scores. Australia New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry, ACTRN12617000615381 (retrospective).