Abrupt Regime Shifts Research Articles

Global warming triggers abrupt regime shifts in island lake ecosystems in the Azores Archipelago

Global warming significantly alters lake ecosystems worldwide. However, the effects of warming at a regional scale are often overlooked due to the scarcity of multidecadal to centennial regional studies. Here, we examined diatom sedimentary records from five lakes on São Miguel Island (Azores archipelago) over the last 170 years. Our analysis using hierarchical generalised additive models revealed an abrupt shift in the island-wide diatom community around 1982 CE, when the Northern Hemisphere temperature exceeded 0.35 °C above the 20th-century mean. This community regime shift resulted in a 27% loss in regional diatom diversity across the Island. Furthermore, previous anthropogenic impacts may have enhanced lakes’ rapid response to warming. These findings highlight the vulnerability of freshwater island ecosystems to climate warming and emphasise the importance of transitioning from local to regional assessments to preserve regional resilience and prevent irreversible damage to these essential freshwater resources and their biodiversity.

Regime Shift to Hyperturbid Conditions in the Loire Estuary: Overview of Observations and Model Analysis of Physical Mechanisms

AbstractThe Loire estuary (France) was extensively deepened during the 20th century. Coincidentally, suspended sediment concentrations increased drastically from ∼0.1 g/l to ∼1–5 g/l at the surface and the estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) moved upstream. In this study we, for the first time, brought together a century of observations of estuary bed level, tidal amplitude, and sediment concentration to demonstrate these large changes. Next, we analyzed a minimal set of physical mechanisms that explain the dramatic increase in sediment concentration. To this end, we used the iFlow model representing dynamic equilibrium conditions in the Loire. Novel in the model is that it dynamically resolves salt stratification and corresponding damping of turbulence. For conditions representing the year 2000, high sediment concentrations were found with satisfactory correspondence to observations. Low sediment concentrations were found when using the year 1900 bed level but keeping all other model parameters the same. Varying the bed level gradually between these two extremes, the equilibrium solution suddenly increases for intermediate bed level, constituting an abrupt regime shift. Robustness of this result was established in an extensive sensitivity study featuring 13,200 model experiments. The regime shift is enabled by a feedback between increasing sediment concentration, reducing turbulence due to sediment and salt stratification, and increasing sediment importing capacity of the estuary. The essential sediment importing mechanisms in this feedback are related to the tidal asymmetry and gravitational circulation. This is the first time gravitational circulation and salt stratification are shown to be important factors in a transition to hyperturbidity.

Decadal changes in the Sea of Marmara indicate degraded ecosystem conditions and unsustainable fisheries

Globally, all marine ecosystems are under pressure by anthropogenic stressors. However, semi-enclosed seas are at a greater risk of degradation due to their limited connectivity to open seas. This leads to a greater accumulation of pollutants and abrupt regime shifts triggered by unsustainable exploitation of living resources, as ecosystems exhibit low degrees of redundancy and more frequent large-scale episodic events such as harmful algal blooms. The Sea of Marmara is a semi-enclosed marine region that has been subjected to various anthropogenic stressors since the 1990s. Recently, local and governmental authorities have employed basin-wide ecosystem management plans to control and manage point and nonpoint (diffuse) sources of pollutants. However, the management of fisheries in relation to the dynamics of the Sea of Marmara food web has attracted less attention from policymakers, even though fisheries exploitation is one of the most significant anthropogenic pressures. In this study, we capitalized on a previous static ecosystem model of the Sea of Marmara by revising and extending it to simulate the changes between 1990 and 2020. We delineated the temporal dynamics and regime shifts in the food web in terms of ecosystem structure and function by using ecological indicators and developed quantitative management advice for its fisheries. The results showed that the ecosystem has experienced three regimes since 1990, with regime shifts occurring with the onset of the 2000s and the mid 2010s. The first regime exhibited high diversity and material cycling, the second regime was characterized by low diversity and increased impact of fisheries, and the third regime culminated in a fished-down food web state. The analysis of fishery dynamics showed that the majority of harvested species were overexploited. We suggest that the implementation of quotas for exploited species should be considered an immediate solution to the unsustainable exploitation of fish stocks and can help restore ecosystem conditions.

Empirical Evidence on the Stock–Bond Correlation

The correlation between stock and bond returns is a cornerstone of asset allocation decisions. History reveals abrupt regime shifts in correlation after long periods of relative stability. We investigate the drivers of the correlation between stocks and bonds and find that inflation, real rates, and government creditworthiness are important explanatory variables. We examine the implications of a shift in the stock–bond correlation and find that increases are associated with higher multi-asset portfolio risk and higher bond risk premia.

An abrupt regime shift of bacterioplankton community from weak to strong thermal pollution in a subtropical bay.

Thermal pollution from the cooling system of the nuclear power plants greatly changes the environmental and the ecological conditions of the receiving marine water body, but we know little about their impact on the steady-state transition of marine bacterioplankton communities. In this study, we used high-throughput sequencing based on the 16S rRNA gene to investigate the impact of the thermal pollution on the bacterioplankton communities in a subtropical bay (the Daya Bay). We observed that thermal pollution from the cooling system of the nuclear power plant caused a pronounced thermal gradient ranging from 19.6°C to 24.12°C over the whole Daya Bay. A temperature difference of 4.5°C between the northern and southern parts of the bay led to a regime shift in the bacterioplankton community structure. In the three typical scenarios of regime shifts, the steady-state transition of bacterioplankton community structure in response to temperature increasing was more likely consistent with an abrupt regime shift rather than a smooth regime or a discontinuous regime model. Water temperature was a decisive factor on the regime shift of bacterioplankton community structure. High temperature significantly decreased bacterioplankton diversity and shifted its community compositions. Cyanobium and Synechococcus of Cyanobacteria, NS5 marine group of Bacteroidota, and Vibrio of Gammaproteobacteria were found that favored high temperature environments. Furthermore, the increased water temperature significantly altered the community assembly of bacterioplankton in Daya Bay, with a substantial decrease in the proportion of drift and others, and a marked increase in the proportion of homogeneous selection. In summary, we proposed that seawater temperature increasing induced by the thermal pollution resulted in an abrupt regime shift of bacterioplankton community in winter subtropical bay. Our research might broad our understanding of marine microbial ecology under future conditions of global warming.

Orbital‐ to millennial‐scale variation of the speleothem δ18O record during Marine Isotope Stages 5 to 3 on the southeast Chinese Loess Plateau and its climatic and environmental implications

ABSTRACTThe Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) is located in northern China, a region climatically dominated by the East Asian monsoon. Speleothem records from this region are crucial to fully understand the variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and reconcile the disparity seen between loess records and speleothem δ18O records for the EASM. Here, we present an absolutely dated stalagmite isotope record spanning most of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 to MIS 3 from Xiaotian Cave, southeast CLP. The Xiaotian speleothem δ18O record is dominated by precessional variations and punctuated by notable millennial‐scale oscillations; in particular, the δ18O values in MIS 5e, 5c and 5a were in the same range, consistent with other speleothem δ18O records from the EASM region within quoted errors, verifying the difference between speleothem δ18O and loess records (e.g. magnetic susceptibility) and the proposition that those two archives may record different aspects of the EASM changes. The similar values in MIS 5e, 5c and 5a observed from the speleothem δ18O records in EASM regions, incompatible with the relatively higher North Hemisphere Summer Insolation (NHSI) during MIS 5e, were probably caused by an equivalent or even increased contribution of 18O‐enriched moisture from the South China Sea and North Pacific, implying that an El Niño‐like state existed during MIS 5e. The Xiaotian δ18O values increased abruptly at ~121.7 thousand years (kyr) before the present (bp, present refers to ad 1950), consistent with the trend seen in previously reported Chinese speleothem δ18O records, indicating an abrupt regime shift in atmospheric circulations or hydroclimate conditions in the Asian monsoon systems. It cannot be definitely ruled out that an increase in sea ice extent in the northern North Atlantic, responding to a decrease of NHSI, reached a threshold to have led to abrupt changes in the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) through rapid shifts in the position of circulation of the westerlies and/or in the position of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Here, we hypothesized that sea surface cooling in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean caused by the decreased summer insolation reached a threshold that eventually resulted in an abrupt shift to more positive precipitation δ18O, either through weakened convection over the tropical ocean, or through abrupt shifts in moisture transport and cycling of tropical moisture sources for the ASM. The Xiaotian speleothem δ18O record also shows centennial‐scale variability with amplitude up to 3‰ within MIS 5e. These changes are similar to variations recorded by the speleothem δ18O record from Tianmen Cave on the south‐central Tibetan Plateau and Shangxiaofeng Cave in Shandong Province, northern China, suggesting a heightened sensitivity of precipitation δ18O to climate changes at the marginal zone of the ASM even during the warm and humid MIS 5e interglacial. Climatic oscillations during MIS 5e appear to be comparable to those typical of the Holocene, implying rather unstable climate conditions during the Last Interglacial.

Understanding the depth limit of the seagrass Cymodocea nodosa as a critical transition: Field and modeling evidence

Changes in light and sediment conditions can sometimes trigger abrupt regime shifts in seagrass meadows resulting in dramatic and unexpected die-offs of seagrass. Light attenuates rapidly with depth, and in seagrass systems with non-linear behaviours, can serve as a sharp boundary beyond which the meadow transitions to bare sand. Determining system behaviour is therefore essential to ensuring resilience is maintained and to prevent stubborn critical ecosystem transitions caused by declines in water quality. Here we combined field and modelling studies to explore the transition from meadow to bare sand in the seagrass Cymodocea nodosa at the limit of its depth distribution in a shallow, light-limited bay. We first describe the relationship between light availability and seagrass density along a depth gradient in an extensive unfragmented meadow (Alfacs bay, NE Spain). We then develop a simple mechanistic model to characterise system behaviour. In the field, we identified sharp decline in shoot density beyond a threshold of ∼1.9 m depth, shifting from a vegetated state to bare sand. The dynamic population model we developed assumes light-dependent growth and an inverse density-dependent mortality due to facilitation between shoots (mortality rate decreases as shoot density increases). The model closely tracked our empirical observations, and both the model and the field data showed signs of bistability. This strongly suggests that the depth limit of C. nodosa is a critical transition driven by photosynthetic light requirements. While the mechanisms still need to be confirmed with experimental evidence, recognizing the non-linear behaviour of C. nodosa meadows is vital not only in improving our understanding of light effects on seagrass dynamics, but also in managing shallow-water meadows. Given the shallow threshold (<2m), light-limited systems may experience significant and recalcitrant meadow retractions with even small changes in sediment and light conditions. Understanding the processes underlying meadow resilience can inform the maintenance and restoration of meadows worldwide.

Rise of a native apex predator and an invasive zooplankton cause successive ecological regime shifts in a North Temperate Lake

AbstractEcosystems can undergo abrupt regime shifts as a result of many factors. Shifts between turbid and clearwater states are well understood for human‐impacted shallow lakes, but are not well understood in other types of lakes. Here we use long‐term data to describe abrupt shifts in water clarity in Trout Lake, an oligotrophic lake with a largely undeveloped watershed. For several decades mean summer water clarity averaged 4.5 m, but then around 2007 water clarity sharply increased and the “clear water regime” persisted for nearly a decade. Nutrient availability did not explain these changes, but rather they were explained by a classic top‐down trophic cascade. Around 2007, the population of the apex pelagic predator, Lake Trout, substantially increased. This was accompanied by a sharp decline in the lake's major pelagic prey fish, the zooplanktivorous Cisco. In turn, there was an increase in large‐bodied zooplankton taxa (calanoids, Daphnia), which reduced algal biomass. This clear water regime was then disrupted in 2014 by the invasion of a predatory zooplankton, Bythotrephes cederstroemi. This invasion corresponded to strong impacts on lower trophic levels (decrease in large‐bodied zooplankton and decreased water clarity), but more minor impacts on higher trophic levels (increased Cisco, decreased Lake Trout abundances)—in effect reversing the trophic cascade and shifting Trout Lake to a novel ecosystem state. Our study provides a long‐term, empirically based example of successive ecological regime shifts that occurred from the rise of an apex predator and a mid‐trophic level invasion in an undeveloped, oligotrophic lake.

Increasing activity of tropical cyclones in East Asia during the mature boreal autumn linked to long-term climate variability

In recent years, the East Asian (EA) region experienced escalated cost of damages associated with tropical cyclones (TC) during the mature boreal autumn (i.e., September−October). Questions arise whether such increased TC-associated cost of damages are indicative of increasing activity of TCs in EA, particularly during the mature boreal autumn. Here we show evidence of significantly increasing activity of TCs in EA from 1981 to 2019 that is mainly accompanied by an abrupt regime shift in TC passage frequency since 1998. Such trend and shift are robustly linked to the shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to its negative phase in the mid-1990s. Characterized by warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the subtropical North Pacific, a negative PDO phase is related to the weakening of the East Asian subtropical jetstream and the westward displacement of the WNP subtropical high, which initiates a favorable steering environment for increased TC passages into the EA region. Contrasting environmental patterns are associated in a positive PDO phase. Considering the prominence of EA in the global economy, our paper contributes additional insights on long-term tropical cyclone risk reduction and management in the region.

The Phytoplanktonic Diatom Community of a Mediterranean Lake Resisted Global Changes Since the 18th Century But Had Abrupt Regime Shifts in the Late 20th Century

The Phytoplanktonic Diatom Community of a Mediterranean Lake Resisted Global Changes Since the 18th Century But Had Abrupt Regime Shifts in the Late 20th Century

Dynamics and Economics of Shallow Lakes: A Survey

We provide an overview of the results devoted to the analysis of the dynamics and economics of shallow lakes, spanning the period from 1999 until now. A shallow lake serves as a typical representative of an ecological system subject to (possibly irreversible) regime shifts. The dynamics of a shallow lake are described by a non-linear model with multiple steady states and multiple domains of attraction and is thus suitable to model the evolution of an ecosystem featuring both resilience within a domain of stability and an abrupt regime shift outside of it. Beyond this, the shallow lake model can also be viewed as a metaphor for many other ecological problems. Due to the broad applicability of this model, there is substantial interest in the management of shallow lakes and both their optimal regulation and competitive usage.

Regime Shifts in Glacier and Ice Sheet Response to Climate Change: Examples From the Northern Hemisphere

Glaciers and ice sheets are experiencing dramatic changes in response to recent climate change. This is true in both mountain and polar regions, where the extreme sensitivity of the cryosphere to warming temperatures may be exacerbated by amplification of global climate change. For glaciers and ice sheets, this sensitivity is due to a number of non-linear and threshold processes within glacier mass balance and glacier dynamics. Some of this is simply tied to the freezing point of water; snow and ice are no longer viable above 0°C, so a gradual warming that crosses this threshold triggers the onset of melting or gives rise to an abrupt regime shift between snowfall and rainfall. Other non-linear, temperature-dependent processes are more subtle, such as the evolution from polythermal to temperate ice, which supports faster ice flow, a shift from meltwater retention to runoff in temperate or ice-rich (i.e., heavily melt-affected) firn, and transitions from sublimation to melting under warmer and more humid atmospheric conditions. As melt seasons lengthen, there is also a longer snow-free season and an expansion of glacier ablation area, with the increased exposure of low-albedo ice non-linearly increasing melt rates and meltwater runoff. This can be accentuated by increased concentration of particulate matter associated with algal activity, dust loading from adjacent deglaciated terrain, and deposition of impurities from industrial and wildfire activity. The loss of ice and darkening of glaciers represent an effective transition from white to grey in the world's mountain regions. This article discusses these transitions and regime shifts in the context of challenges to model and project glacier and ice sheet response to climate change.

The biogeographic differentiation of algal microbiomes in the upper ocean from pole to pole

Eukaryotic phytoplankton are responsible for at least 20% of annual global carbon fixation. Their diversity and activity are shaped by interactions with prokaryotes as part of complex microbiomes. Although differences in their local species diversity have been estimated, we still have a limited understanding of environmental conditions responsible for compositional differences between local species communities on a large scale from pole to pole. Here, we show, based on pole-to-pole phytoplankton metatranscriptomes and microbial rDNA sequencing, that environmental differences between polar and non-polar upper oceans most strongly impact the large-scale spatial pattern of biodiversity and gene activity in algal microbiomes. The geographic differentiation of co-occurring microbes in algal microbiomes can be well explained by the latitudinal temperature gradient and associated break points in their beta diversity, with an average breakpoint at 14 °C ± 4.3, separating cold and warm upper oceans. As global warming impacts upper ocean temperatures, we project that break points of beta diversity move markedly pole-wards. Hence, abrupt regime shifts in algal microbiomes could be caused by anthropogenic climate change.

Revealing configurational attractors in the evolution of modern Australian and US cities

The spatial structure of modern cities exhibits highly diverse patterns and keeps evolving under numerous constraints and sustainability demands. However, it is unclear if there are fundamental physical constraints guiding the evolution of cities. Here, we offer a concise model revealing key invariants within urban forms shaped by human resettlement over the years. In doing so, we assess the heterogeneity and spreading of population density in 25 Australian and 175 US cities. We observe that larger cities tend to form a cluster with low spreading and high heterogeneity, and explain this observation using dynamic properties of the intra-urban migration in these cities. As a result, we report three distinct feasible phases of urban structures: uniform, monocentric, and polycentric, separated by abrupt regime shifts. We demonstrate that transitions between these phases, resulting from the population redistribution, are not necessarily driven by external factors (such as city growth) and can exist even in a closed system. Our analysis reveals that the set of all possible equilibrium configurations (“configurational attractors”) form a narrow region in the heterogeneityspreading space, thus explaining the emergence of clustering patterns.

Orders &amp; Contracts

The spatial structure of modern cities exhibits highly diverse patterns and keeps evolving under numerous constraints and sustainability demands. However, it is unclear if there are fundamental physical constraints guiding the evolution of cities. Here, we offer a concise model revealing key invariants within urban forms shaped by human resettlement over the years. In doing so, we assess the heterogeneity and spreading of population density in 25 Australian and 175 US cities. We observe that larger cities tend to form a cluster with low spreading and high heterogeneity, and explain this observation using dynamic properties of the intra-urban migration in these cities. As a result, we report three distinct feasible phases of urban structures: uniform, monocentric, and polycentric, separated by abrupt regime shifts. We demonstrate that transitions between these phases, resulting from the population redistribution, are not necessarily driven by external factors (such as city growth) and can exist even in a closed system. Our analysis reveals that the set of all possible equilibrium configurations (“configurational attractors”) form a narrow region in the heterogeneityspreading space, thus explaining the emergence of clustering patterns.

Regime shift in the decadal variability of the Indian Ocean subsurface temperature

The decadal variability in the subsurface temperature of the tropical Indian Ocean shows a strong seasonality and features a prominent east–west dipole structure. The seasonal characteristics of the decadal variability shows a semiannual cycle in the rapid warming period of the twentieth century and then shift to an annual cycle during the recent hiatus period. The semiannual cycle is in phase with the climatological seasonal cycle, and therefore strengthens the climatological seasonal variations. Whereas during the recent hiatus period, the annual cycle shows a negative (positive) Indian Ocean Dipole pattern in the first (second) half of the year. Such regime shift in the decadal variability of subsurface temperature is strongly correlated with that of the surface wind in the tropical Indian Ocean, especially the equatorial zonal wind. Our result suggests that an abrupt weakening in both summer and winter Indian monsoon at the beginning of this century is the major cause of the regime shift in decadal variability of surface winds. • Decadal variability in Indian Ocean subsurface temperature shows strong seasonality. • The decadal variability features a prominent east–west dipole structure. • The decadal variability experienced an abrupt regime shift around 2000. • Such regime shift is correlated with surface wind, especially equatorial zonal wind. • The regime shift in local wind is related to an abrupt weakening in Indian monsoon.

Regime Shifts in an Early Triassic Subtropical Ecosystem

The Early Triassic was one of the most remarkable time intervals in Earth History. To begin with, life on Earth had to face one of the largest subaerial volcanic degassing, the Siberian Traps, followed by a plethora of accompanying environmental hazards with pronounced and repeated climatic changes. These changes not only led to repeated and, for several marine nektonic clades, intense extinction events but also to significant changes in terrestrial ecosystems. The Early Triassic terrestrial ecosystems of the southern subtropical region (Pakistan) are not necessarily marked by abrupt extinction events but by extreme shifts in composition. Modern ecological theories describe such shifts as catastrophic regime shifts. Here, the applicability of modern ecological theories to these past events is tested. Abrupt shifts in ecosystems can occur when protracted changing abiotic drivers (e.g. climate) reach critical points (thresholds or tipping points) sometimes accentuated by stochastic events. Early Triassic terrestrial plant ecosystem changes stand out from the longer term paleobotanical records because changes of similar magnitude have not been observed for many millions of years before and after the Early Triassic. To date, these changes have been attributed to repeated severe environmental perturbations, but here an alternative explanation is tested: the initial environmental perturbations around the Permian–Triassic boundary interval are regarded here as a main cause for a massive loss in terrestrial ecosystem resilience with the effect that comparatively small-scale perturbations in the following ∼5 Ma lead to abrupt regime shifts in terrestrial ecosystems.

Multiple metastable network states in urban traffic

While abrupt regime shifts between different metastable states have occurred in natural systems from many areas including ecology, biology, and climate, evidence for this phenomenon in transportation systems has been rarely observed so far. This limitation might be rooted in the fact that we lack methods to identify and analyze possible multiple states that could emerge at scales of the entire traffic network. Here, using percolation approaches, we observe such a metastable regime in traffic systems. In particular, we find multiple metastable network states, corresponding to varying levels of traffic performance, which recur over different days. Based on high-resolution global positioning system (GPS) datasets of urban traffic in the megacities of Beijing and Shanghai (each with over 50,000 road segments), we find evidence supporting the existence of tipping points separating three regimes: a global functional regime and a metastable hysteresis-like regime, followed by a global collapsed regime. We can determine the intrinsic critical points where the metastable hysteresis-like regime begins and ends and show that these critical points are very similar across different days. Our findings provide a better understanding of traffic resilience patterns and could be useful for designing early warning signals for traffic resilience management and, potentially, other complex systems.

Regime Shifts in a Phage-Bacterium Ecosystem and Strategies for Its Control.

The competition between bacteria often involves both nutrients and phage predators and may give rise to abrupt regime shifts between the alternative stable states characterized by different species compositions. While such transitions have been previously studied in the context of competition for nutrients, the case of phage-induced bistability between competing bacterial species has not been considered yet. Here we demonstrate a possibility of regime shifts in well-mixed phage-bacterium ecosystems. In one of the bistable states, the fast-growing bacteria competitively exclude the slow-growing ones by depleting their common nutrient. Conversely, in the second state, the slow-growing bacteria with a large burst size generate such a large phage population that the other species cannot survive. This type of bistability can be realized as the competition between a strain of bacteria protected from phage by abortive infection and another strain with partial resistance to phage. It is often desirable to reliably control the state of microbial ecosystems, yet bistability significantly complicates this task. We discuss successes and limitations of one control strategy in which one adds short pulses to populations of individual species. Our study proposes a new type of phage therapy, where introduction of the phage is supplemented by the addition of a partially resistant host bacteria.IMPORTANCE Phage-microbe communities play an important role in human health as well as natural and industrial environments. Here we show that these communities can assume several alternative species compositions separated by abrupt regime shifts. Our model predicts these regime shifts in the competition between bacterial strains protected by two different phage defense mechanisms: abortive infection/CRISPR and partial resistance. The history dependence caused by regime shifts greatly complicates the task of manipulation and control of a community. We propose and study a successful control strategy via short population pulses aimed at inducing the desired regime shifts. In particular, we predict that a fast-growing pathogen could be eliminated by a combination of its phage and a slower-growing susceptible host.

Clustering and correlations: Inferring resilience from spatial patterns in ecosystems

Abstract In diverse ecosystems, organisms cluster together in such a manner that the frequency distribution of cluster sizes is a power law function. Spatially explicit computational models of ecosystems suggest that a loss of such power law clustering may indicate a loss of ecosystem resilience; the empirical evidence in support for this hypothesis has been mixed. On the other hand, a well‐known dynamical feature of systems with reduced resilience is the slower recovery from perturbations, a phenomenon known as critical slowing down (CSD). Here, we examine the relationship between spatial clustering and CSD to better understand the use of cluster size distributions as indicators of ecosystem resilience. Local positive feedback is an important driver of spatial clustering, while also affecting the dynamics of the ecosystem: Studies have demonstrated that positive feedback promotes abrupt regime shifts. Here, we analyse a spatial model of ecosystem transitions that enables us to disentangle the roles of local positive feedback and environmental stress on spatial patterns and ecosystem resilience. We demonstrate that, depending on the strength of positive feedback, power law clustering can occur at any distance from the critical threshold of ecosystem collapse. In fact, we find that for systems with strong positive feedback, which are more likely to exhibit abrupt transitions, there may be no loss of power law clustering prior to critical thresholds. Our analyses show that cluster size distributions are unrelated to the phenomenon of CSD and that loss of power law clustering is not a generic indicator of ecosystem resilience. Further, due to CSD, a power law feature does occur near critical thresholds but in a different quantity; specifically, a power law decay of spatial covariance of ecosystem state. Our work highlights the importance of links between local positive feedback, emergent spatial properties and how they may be used to interpret ecosystem resilience.