Abnormal Earnings Growth Research Articles

The pricing accuracy of alternative equity valuation models: Scandinavian evidence

AbstractIn many decision contexts, there is a need for benchmark equity valuations, based on simplified modeling and publicly available information. Prior research on U.S. data however shows that the accuracy of such valuation models can be low and sensitive to the choice of model specifications and value driver predictions. In this paper, we test the applicability and pricing accuracy of three fundamental valuation (dividend discount, residual income, and abnormal earnings growth) models, all based on forecasts of company dividends, earnings, and/or equity book values. Extending prior research, we apply these models to Scandinavian firms with accounting data from the period 2005–2014, explicitly testing two approaches for the prediction of the value drivers—exogenously forecasted numbers versus projected historical numbers. Given access to the forecasted value drivers, the dividend discount model comes out as the most accurate valuation model. In particular, this holds in a comparison between the most parsimonious model specifications. The residual income valuation model generates the best pricing accuracy given the prediction of value drivers based on historical financial numbers. Notably, we observe pricing errors that in general are lower than what has been reported in prior U.S.‐based research for the dividend discount and the residual income valuation models. The pricing accuracy of the abnormal earnings growth models is surprisingly weak in the Scandinavian setting. However, these models improve somewhat after a couple of complexity adjustments, in particular with value driver predictions based on the projected history setting.

Discounting earnings with stochastic discount rates

ABSTRACTThis paper presents new equity valuation formulae in closed form that extend the abnormal earnings growth (AEG) valuation of Ohlson [2005. “On Accounting-Based Valuation Formulae.” Review of Accounting Studies 10: 323–347] to the cases of time-varying or stochastic cost of capital as in Ang and Liu [2004. “How to Discount Cash Flows with Time-Varying Expected Returns.” Journal of Finance 59 (6): 2745–2783] or to cases of stochastic interest rates as in Ang and Liu [2001. “A General Affine Earnings Valuation Model.” Review of Accounting Studies 6: 397–425]. Interest rates are modelled by quadratic term structure models, which are not hindered by restrictions to factors correlation or by other shortcomings of affine term structure models in discounting long-term earnings. This is crucial since valuation can be very sensitive to the correlation between the factors driving earnings and interest rates. Positive correlation reduces price-earnings ratios according to US data. Valuation is also sensitive to the ‘volatility’ of abnormal earnings growth. The residual earnings risk-neutral valuation of Ang and Liu (2001) is adapted to quadratic term structure models.

Inferring The Cost Of Equity: Does The CAPM Consistently Outperform The Income And Multiples Valuation Models?

A number of surveys reveal that a large number of analysts, valuation experts, investors, chief financial officers and finance academics employ the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) of Sharpe (1962) and Lintner (1965) to estimate the cost of equity. There are, however, a number of alternative valuation models that can be used to infer the cost of equity. These alternative equity valuation models include the constant growth dividend discount, the earnings and book market multiples, the residual income and the Ohlson and Juettner-Nauroth (2005) abnormal earnings growth (AEG) models. Using four mature retail firms listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, this paper tested for the equivalence of these models to the CAPM in estimating the cost of equity. The study found that the variants of the constant growth dividend discount and the AEG models give similar estimates which are closer to those of the CAPM. The variants of the price-to-earnings market multiples, price-to-book market multiples, and residual income models all yield estimates that are higher than those of the CAPM. Finally, the estimates seem to be affected by the stability of the firm’s earnings and financial position.

Relevância da informação contábil em empresas dos Brics e EUA

A busca por informações contábeis relevantes tem sido intensa pelos órgãos normalizadores nos últimos anos, os quais têm buscado estabelecer normas que tornem a informação contábil relevante e possa ser utilizada de forma segura no processo decisório, principalmente considerando as decisões relacionadas ao mercado de capitais. Nessa linha, James Ohlson propôs modelos de avaliação de empresas baseados em números contábeis. O objetivo deste estudo é verificar as diferenças na Relevância da Informação Contábil no mercado de capitais dos países Brasil, Rússia, Índia, China e África do Sul (BRICS) e Estados Unidos da América (EUA), a partir dos dados disponíveis nas Bolsa de Valores destes países, por meio dos modelos Residual Income Valuation (RIV) e Abnormal Earnings Growth (AEG) propostos por Ohlson (1995; 2005). Por meio da Regressão com Dados em Painel, concluiu-se que as variáveis de cada país apresentam comportamento diferente no tocante a influência das mesmas no mercado de capitais, pois além de apresentarem coeficientes distintos, houve extensa variação do R2, sendo 0,02 no Brasil, para o modelo AEG e 0,79 na China para o modelo RIV. Quanto à verificação de qual modelo (RIV ou AEG) melhor se adapta à realidade de cada país, observou-se que no Brasil e África do Sul o modelo AEG apresentou maior ajuste, já na Rússia e China o modelo RIV foi mais adequado, tanto para variáveis defasadas pelo Preço em t-1, quanto para as não defasadas, pois conta com R2 mais expressivo e valor mais baixo para Critério de Informação de Akaike. Para os EUA e Índia, para variáveis não defasadas, o AEG é o melhor modelo para Índia e RIV para os EUA. Já com variáveis defasadas, o resultado se inverte.

Earnings Versus Cash Flows: The Valuation Perspective

This paper is an effort to compare the earnings based and cash flow based methods of valuation of an enterprise. The theoretically equivalent methods based on either earnings such as Residual Earnings Model (REM), Abnormal Earnings Growth Model (AEGM), Residual Operating Income Method (ReOIM), Abnormal Operating Income Growth Model (AOIGM) and its extensions multipliers such as Price/Earnings Ratio, Price/Book Value Ratio; or cash flow based models such as Dividend Valuation Method (DVM) and Free Cash Flow method (FCFM) all provide different estimates of valuation of the Indian giant corporate Reliance India Limited (RIL). An ex-post analysis of published accounting and financial data for four financial years from 2008-09 to 2011-12 has been conducted. A comparison of these valuation estimates with the actual market capitalization of the company shows that the complex accounting based model AOIGM provides closest forecasts. These different estimates may be derived due to inconsistencies in discount rate, growth rates and the other forecasted variables. Although inputs for earnings based models may be available to the investor and analysts through published statements, precise estimation of free cash flows may be better undertaken by the internal management. The estimation of value from more stable parameters as Residual operating income and RNOA could be considered superior to the valuations from more volatile return on equity.

Equity Value as a Function of (eps1, eps2, dps1, bvps, beta): Concepts and Realities. Discussion of Ohlson and Johannesson

Ohlson and Johannesson (2016) examine how valuation models and model inputs help explain stock prices. In particular, they develop and test a new valuation model based on abnormal earnings growth (AEG). They also critique residual income valuation (RIV). The issue is important since the two valuation approaches play a central role in research and textbooks.

Unique determinants of abnormal earnings growth in Malaysia

Purpose – This paper aims to use Malaysian data to investigate determinants of the implied growth rate of abnormal earnings. Design/methodology/approach – The sample comprises 340 listed companies. Logistic regressions were conducted. The dependent variables, observed in 2009, distinguish companies with high versus low implied growth rates. The independent variables were observed in 2008. The independent variables of interest capture companies’ status as being Nanyang and politically connected corporations. Findings – The results suggest that in Malaysia, implied growth rates are higher for Nanyang corporations and companies with a political connection related to economic policy. Research limitations/implications – The study is limited by its one-year investigation period and blurred boundaries between types of political connections. Because these considerations bias the study against supporting the hypotheses, the significant results have enhanced credibility. The empirical proxies for implied growth rates are affected by measurement error. Hence, multiple proxies were used. Practical implications – The results suggest that Malaysian Nanyang corporations are a sound investment. The evidence also indicates that in Malaysia, government investment in listed companies enhances, rather than erodes, shareholder wealth. Originality/value – Owing to the prevalence of Nanyang companies and government investment in the private sector, the Malaysian setting is unique. The use of a broad definition of “political connections” is a unique aspect of this paper. Examination of implied equity growth rates and the proxies for the same are also original features.

A Comparative Analysis of Accounting-Based Valuation Models

We empirically compare the reliability of the dividend (DIV) model, the residual income valuation (CT, GLS) model, and the abnormal earnings growth (OJ) model. We find that valuation estimates from the OJ model are generally more reliable than those from the other three models, because the residual income valuation model anchored by book value gets off to a poor start when compared with the OJ model led by capitalized next-year earnings. We adopt a 34-year sample covering from 1985 to 2013 to compare the reliability of valuation estimates via their means of absolute pricing errors ( MAPE) and corresponding t statistics. We further use the switching regression of Barrios and Blanco to show that the average probability of OJ valuation estimates is greater in explaining stock prices than the DIV, CT, and GLS models. In addition, our finding that the OJ model yields more reliable estimates is robust to analysts-based and model-based earnings measures.

Оценка влияния сделок слияний и поглощений на фундаментальную стоимость компаний на развивающихся рынках капитала (на примере стран BRICS)

Елена Моисеевна Рогова - Национальный Исследовательский Университет "Высшая школа экономики". Электронная почта: erogova@hse.ru
 Дарья Лузина - Санкт-Петербургская школа экономики и менеджмента.
 В статье представлены результаты исследования влияния сделок слияний и поглощений на фундаментальную стоимость компаний – покупателей в странах BRICS. С позиции менеджмента компаний, инициирующих слияния и поглощения, важен ответ на вопрос, превышает ли приведенная стоимость финансовых выгод от сделки приведенную стоимость издержек по ее проведению (положительна ли чистая приведенная стоимость такой сделки)? Если ответ на данный вопрос положителен, фундаментальная стоимость в результате сделки должна увеличиться, к выгоде акционеров приобретающей компании.В последнее время развивающиеся рынки становятся основным центром активности в сфере слияний и поглощений. Компании с развивающихся рынков участвуют в каждой четвертой сделке, при этом страны БРИКС являются лидерами этого процесса. Присущие развивающимся рынкам капитала особенности – неэффективность, информационная асимметрия – не дают возможности напрямую использовать рыночные показатели для оценки фундаментальной стоимости компаний, что обусловливает поиск адекватных условиям развивающихся рынков моделей оценивания. Наиболее популярными методами оценивания являются событийный анализ и анализ данных финансовой отчетности.Настоящее исследование базируется на модели остаточной прибыли (Residual Income Valuation – RIV) и заключается в расчете разницы между ожидаемой фундаментальной стоимостью приобретающей компании до сделки (pre-acquisition expected fundamental value) и «реализованной» фундаментальной стоимостью компании после сделки (realised post acquisition fundamental value). В результате тестирования выборки из 366 сделок, совершенных в период с 2009 по 2012 гг., было установлено, что слияния и поглощения приводят к росту фундаментальной стоимости на акцию компаний - покупателей из стран BRICS. Также, на основе регрессионного анализа, были выявлены факторы, влияющие на создание или разрушение фундаментальной стоимости компаний – покупателей: размер компании, способ финансирования сделки, отраслевая принадлежность компании и способ оплаты сделки.Результаты исследования могут представлять интерес для менеджмента компаний, планирующих осуществление слияний или поглощений на развивающихся рынках, поскольку позволяют сконцентрироваться на факторах, создающих стоимость для акционеров.

The Implied Cost of Capital: An Empirical Assessment in the Tunisian Context

This research is a feedback to Wang (2015) suggesting that realized returns should be used in conjunction with ICCs to make more robust inferences about expected returns. We examine the validity of six firm-specific ICCs along with a synthetic one, in the Tunisian context, according to their feasibility and their correlation with realized return. The examined estimators are calculated according to three types of earnings forecasts: smoothing, random walk and cross-section. These estimators represent three main valuation approaches: Present Value of Expected Dividend (PVED), Residual Income Valuation Model (RIV) and Abnormal Earnings Growth (AEG). Our results confirm the assertions of Gerakos and Gramacy (2013) on random walk forecasts’ good performance as well as those of Li and Mohanram (2014) on the poor quality of Hou et al. (2012)’s cross-section forecasts. Furthermore, dividend seems best reflecting Tunisian stock market expectations concerning future revenues which would be generated by the valuated asset. These findings bring into question the relevance of new accounting valuation approaches which are anchored rather on equity book value (RIV) and on earnings forecasts (AEG).

Earnings vs. Cashflows: The Valuation Perspective

The research paper is an effort to compare the earnings based and cash flow based methods of valuation of an enterprise. The theoretically equivalent methods based on either earnings such as Residual Earnings Model (REM), Abnormal Earnings Growth Model (AEGM), Residual Operating Income Method (ReOIM), Abnormal Operating Income Growth Model (AOIGM) and its extensions multipliers such as Price/Earnings Ratio, Price/Book Value Ratio; or cash flow based models such as Dividend Valuation Method (DVM) and Free Cash Flow method (FCFM) all provide different estimates of valuation of the Indian giant corporate Reliance India Limited (RIL). An ex-post analysis of published accounting and financial data for four financial years from 2008-09 to 2011-12 has been conducted. A comparison of these valuation estimates with the actual market capitalization of the company shows that the complex accounting based model AOIGM provides closest forecasts. These different estimates may be derived due to inconsistencies in discount rate, growth rates and the other forecasted variables. Although inputs for earnings based models may be available to the investor and analysts through published statements, precise estimation of free cash flows may be better undertaken by the internal management. The estimation of value from more stable parameters as Residual operating income and Residual Net Operating Assets could be considered superior to the valuations from more volatile return on equity.

Análise dos modelos de avaliação Residual Income Valuation, Abnormal Earnings Growth e Fluxo de Caixa descontado aplicados às ofertas públicas de aquisição de ações no Brasil

A listed company, when it carries out a public tender offer to acquire shares (PTO), retains a specialized firm to conduct an appraisal of the target company, in conformity with applicable regulations. This article examines 97 appraisal reports of PTOs announced in Brazil over the period from 2000 to 2007. The valuation model most often used in these reports was discounted cash flow. Our aim is to examine whether the valuations estimated by models more closely based on accounting numbers, namely residual income valuation (RIV) and abnormal earnings growth (AEG), produce valuations near those estimated by the discounted cash flow method, according to the appraisal reports. We applied the RIV and AEG models to samples of 21 and 39 firms, respectively. The results of the tests performed indicate there are no statistically significant differences between the values estimated by either the RIV or AEG method in relation to those estimated by the discounted cash flow method.

A note on accounting conservatism in residual income and abnormal earnings growth equity valuation

The impact of conservative accounting on residual income (RI) and abnormal earnings growth (AEG) valuation models is investigated in this note. Limiting the analyses to information dynamics constrained models (the core models in Ohlson, 1995; Ohlson & Juettner-Nauroth, 2005), we find that both models can handle accounting conservatism if the persistence factors of residual income or abnormal earnings growth fulfil certain conditions. In a comparison of permissible time-series specifications, the AEG model can potentially handle more conservatively biased earnings in the first forecast period than the RI model. However, this requires that the growth of the conservative bias in the second forecast period is not too large. In a 0-NPV competitive equilibrium with a constant steady state growth, both models work equally well. Further elaborations indicate that, in the presence of accounting conservatism a reasonable value of the persistence factor of residual income in the RI model should be in the interval between 1.0 and R (where R = 1 + discount rate), whereas the persistence factor of abnormal earnings growth in the AEG model should be close to 1.0. This implies that the persistence factor in the RI model appears to have been understated while the persistence factor in the AEG model appears to have been overstated in previous empirical research.

ANALYSIS OF THE RESIDUAL INCOME VALUATION AND ABNORMAL EARNINGS GROWTH MODELS: A PRACTICAL APPROACH USING ANALYSTS’ FORECASTS

This paper revisits two valuation models based on accounting figures: the Residual Income Valuation (RIV) and Abnormal Earnings Growth (AEG). Our research design has two approaches: i) we demonstrate theoretical integration of both models; and ii) we show in a practical manner that models converge to the same results based on real data of analysts forecast consensus. We apply statistical tests on empirical data from analyst’s forecasts available on Thomson One Analytics database. We use information of 45 firms listed on the IBovespa segment from BMF&BOVESPA in 2008 with historical data from 2003 to 2007 and analysts’ projections from 2003 to 2010. Our results do not show a significant mean difference of the valuations, but those from the RIV model are more dispersed than those produced by the AEG model. Furthermore, our results are consistent with international evidences and present additional evidences of application of valuation models based on accounting information in Brazil. Our findings support the use of valuation models based on accounting figures by analysts, investors, rating agencies and regulators to provide additional analyses of firm’s future prospects.

The Valuation Accuracy of Equity Value Estimates Inferred from Conventional Empirical Implementations of the Abnormal Earnings Growth Model: US Evidence

Abstract: We compare the valuation accuracy of the equity value estimates inferred from empirical implementations of the abnormal earnings growth model (Ohlson and Juettner‐Nauroth 2005; the OJ estimates) with the residual income model (Ohlson 1995; the RIV estimates). We find that the OJ estimates generally underperform the RIV estimates. Increasing the forecast horizon for the OJ estimates from two to five years significantly improves their valuation accuracy. However, relative to the RIV estimates, the valuation accuracy of the OJ estimates remains lower even using a five‐year forecast horizon. Finally, we compare predicted accounting profitability with actual accounting profitability and find that the lower valuation accuracy of the OJ estimates is attributable to the empirical assumptions regarding future earnings growth beyond the forecast horizon.

The information content of stock splits

We develop a new methodology that controls for both the timing of annual earnings news ( Asquith et al., 1989) and the performance prior to split announcements ( Barber and Lyon, 1996) to evaluate the information content of stock splits. In contrast to existing evidence, we find that stock splits in aggregate are followed by positive abnormal future earnings growth, suggesting that stock splits contain information about future, rather than past, operating performance. When we use changes in breadth of institutional ownership as a new metric of information content to corroborate our findings, we find that splits with the greatest increase in breadth experience positive post-split abnormal returns and positive abnormal earnings growth. Together, our results suggest that some splits contain positive information about future performance, and that sophisticated market participants such as institutional investors are able to select these splits.

The Abnormal Earnings Growth Model, Two Exogenous Discount Rates, and Taxes

Abstract: In the abnormal earnings growth (AEG) valuation model of Ohlson and Juettner‐Nauroth (2005), there is one (constant) discount rate and no company or personal taxes. The parsimonious model specification focuses on bottom‐line earnings and growth in abnormal bottom‐line earnings and can hence be viewed as an equity‐level model. Disregarding taxes, we first extend this model to a firm‐level model based on operating earnings and growth in abnormal operating earnings, allowing for two exogenous discount rates: the required rate of return under all‐equity financing and the borrowing rate. Dividend policy irrelevance holds for this model. Using the firm‐level model as a stepping stone, a new equity‐level model is developed where dividends are discounted at a leverage‐dependent varying cost of equity capital. Dividend policy irrelevance holds for this model, too. Finally, the firm‐level and equity‐level models are extended to a situation with company and personal taxes. Dividend policy irrelevance then no longer holds, except in the tax‐neutrality case in Miller (1977).

Residual income and value creation: An investigation into the lost-capital paradigm

This paper presents a new way of measuring residual income, originally introduced by Magni (2000a,b,c, 2001a,b, 2003). Contrary to the standard residual income, the capital charge is equal to the capital lost by investors multiplied by the cost of capital. The lost capital may be viewed as (a) the foregone capital, (b) the capital implicitly infused into the business, (c) the outstanding capital of a shadow project , (d) the claimholders’ credit. Relations of the lost capital with book values and market values are studied, as well as relations of the lost capital residual income with the classical standard paradigm; many appealing properties are derived, among which an aggregation property. Different concepts and results, provided by different authors in such different fields as economic theory, management accounting and corporate finance, are considered: O’Hanlon and Peasnell’s (2002) unrecovered capital and Excess Value Created; Ohlson’s (2005) Abnormal Earnings Growth; O’Byrne’s (1997) EVA improvement; Miller and Modigliani’s (1961) investment opportunities approach to valuation; Young and O’Byrne’s (2001) Adjusted EVA; Keynes’s (1936) user cost; Drukarczyk and Schueler’s (2000) Net Economic Income; Fernández’s (2002) Created Shareholder Value; Anthony’s (1975) profit. They are all conveniently reinterpreted within the theoretical domain of the lost-capital paradigm and conjoined in a unified view. The results found make this new theoretical approach a good candidate for firm valuation, capital budgeting decision-making, managerial incentives and control.

Evaluating Methods to Estimate the Implied Cost of Equity Capital: A Simulation Study

We evaluate accounting-based methods to estimate the implied cost of capital using a simulation approach. We simulate a model economy in which the true cost of capital is known and calibrate it to the CRSP-Compustat universe. We then compare the true cost of capital to the implied cost of capital estimates from ten different methods proposed in the literature in terms of bias, accuracy, and their correlation with the true cost of equity capital. Methods based on the residual income model perform better than those based on the abnormal earnings growth model. Methods that estimate the cost of capital and expected growth simultaneously work reasonably well if they rely on analyst forecasts instead of ex post realized values, even if analyst forecasts are biased. We suggest combined methods that are chosen so that the distortions from individual methods compensate each other and show that some simple combinations outperform all individual methods.

Empirical Study of Value Relevance under Residual Income Model and Abnormal Earnings Growth Model

Empirical Study of Value Relevance under Residual Income Model and Abnormal Earnings Growth Model