Abnormal Drought Research Articles

Abnormal Winter Drought-Induced Transient Dieback of Korean Fir in the Montane Forests of Mt. Jirisan, South Korea

Although climate change-related concerns have long been raised regarding the sudden dieback of Korean fir (Abies koreana), the event’s etiology and subsequent ecosystem processes must be explained. Our study aims to clarify the continuity or transience of mass mortality events within the coarse woody debris (CWD) structure and, if transient, to identify the climatic conditions (1974–2021) that could be responsible for the massive dying phenomena in Korean fir populations. On average, precipitation during the non-growing season (November–April as winter) constituted 18.5% relative to the growth period; in the winter of 1999, it was 4.8% due to an abnormal drought event. The dead stems occurred evenly across all size classes. In the CWD structure, the density and biomass of the dead fir individuals peaked in decay classes II or III. The size distribution of the retained fir was inverse-J shaped across the entire altitudinal range. The abnormal winter drought event, causing root damage by soil frost and heaving, may be one of the factors that increased Korean fir mortality across the entire stem size range. Despite transient cohort senescence, the retained Korean fir individuals transmitted drought-resistant traits into the regional pool following the drought event.

Hydrological Analysis Before and After Embankment-Raising Project of Agricultural Reservoir Watershed: A Case Study of Suyang Reservoir

We selected the SWAT hydrological model to analyze the hydrological changes before and after an embankment-raising project in agricultural reservoirs. The model was calibrated and validated from 2015 to 2016 using discharge data from the Songsan gauge station, which serves as a watershed outlet that includes the Suyang Reservoir. The dam height of Suyang Reservoir was raised from 13.5 m to 15.1 m, which resulted in a total storage capacity increase from 7.472 million cubic meters to 11.926 million cubic meters. The calibrated model demonstrates an efficiency of 0.9. Scenarios for pre- (2001-2012) and post-embankment raising (2014-2016) were simulated, and the results for various hydrological components (precipitation, runoff, infiltration, evapotranspiration, percolation, soil moisture, groundwater evaporation, and groundwater recharge) were summarized. The model results revealed average precipitation, runoff, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge for the pre-embankment raising period (2001-2012) as 1,479.3 mm, 864.1 mm, 550.8 mm, 584.2 mm, and 165.0 mm, respectively. For the post-embankment raising period (2014-2016), the simulated values were 1,290.4 mm, 678.0 mm, 494.0 mm, 587.9 mm, and 145.9 mm, respectively. Below-average precipitation during the post-embankment raising period did not have a significant impact on the operation of the agricultural reservoir. The increased reservoir capacity through the embankment-raising project suggests the potential for additional water supply in the face of future water shortages and abnormal drought conditions. Additional research, including the determination of an appropriate water storage rate, will be necessary through long-term investigations and analyses, and climate change scenarios should be incorporated.

Оценка посевных качеств семян сортов зернового сорго при применении хелатных микроудобрений

Recently, the cultivation of grain sorghum has become increasingly popular in modern agriculture. Grain sorghum is a valuable agricultural crop, the peculiarity of which is consistently high productivity even under conditions of abnormal drought, which is especially important in arid agriculture. Another feature of grain sorghum is its suitability for food use. The grain of this crop serves as a valuable raw material for gluten-free products. Currently, the area of cultivation of grain sorghum is actively expanding, which extends to countries in Africa, Asia, South and North America, Europe and Australia. It should be noted that grain sorghum responds well to the use of agrotechnical techniques, including fertilizer systems, both in organic and mineral forms, as well as to the use of pre-sowing, leaf treatments with various humic, chelate and growth-regulating preparations. However, the effect of chelated micronutrients in the pre-sowing treatment of grain sorghum seeds has not been studied widely enough. This circumstance was the reason for the research. The article notes the significant effect of chelated preparations on the germination energy and germination of seeds of grain sorghum varieties. A tendency to increase the degree of grain swelling, as well as the length of primary roots and primary seedlings, was revealed when using preparations in chelated form. Keywords: GRAIN SORGHUM, VARIETY, CHELATED MICRO FERTILIZERS, WATER CONSUMPTION, SWELLING, GERMINATION ENERGY, GERMINATION, PRIMARY ROOTS, SEEDLINGS

Landscape vulnerability assessment driven by drought and precipitation anomalies in sub-Saharan Africa

Global climate extremes are increasingly frequent and intense, especially in Africa, which is most vulnerable to climate change (de Sherbinin Clim. Change 123 23–37). However, the vulnerability of the landscapes composed of diverse ecosystems to climate extremes is far from being clearly understood. This study constructed a set of index systems based on the ‘exposure-sensitivity-adaptive capacity’ framework to assess landscape vulnerability driven by abnormal drought and precipitation in sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, correlation analysis was used to discover factors affecting landscape vulnerability. The results showed that a high level of landscape vulnerability was determined by high exposure and high sensitivity, as adaptive capacity exhibited little difference. The drought and wet events occurred in 80.9% and 51.3% of the climate change-dominated areas during 2001–2020, respectively. In areas where drought anomalies occur, about 8% of the landscapes, primarily formed by sparse vegetation and grasslands, were susceptible to drought. Moreover, in areas with abnormal precipitation, high vulnerability occurred only in about 0.6% of landscapes mostly covered by grasslands and shrubs. In addition, the intensity of landscape vulnerability driven by drought was higher than that driven by precipitation anomalies in the areas that experienced both dry and wet anomalies. Furthermore, the greater the deviation of landscape richness, diversity, and evenness from the normal climate state, the stronger the landscape vulnerability. The results add new evidence for landscape instabilities—an obvious contrast driven by drought and wetness—from the perspective of landscape vulnerability. The methodology of assessing landscape vulnerability established in this study can provide a new way to guide the regulation of landscape composition in response to frequent climate extremes on a macro level.

Spatial and Temporal analysis (2008-2017) of droughts and their effects on livestock in the Brazilian semi-arid region.

In this study a temporal analysis (2008-2017) was conducted to examine the occurrence of droughts and the spatial distribution of livestock herds in the Brazilian semi-arid region. Maps of vegetation cover, classes of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalized difference drought index (NDDI) were used. Image processing took place on the Google Earth Engine platform along with QGIS Software (2.18). Two historical series were created to compare the variation between two herds and the dry monitoring, one called the 1st series (2008-2012) and 2nd series (2013-2017) which were compared using a paired t-test. The comparative analysis showed that the classes of extreme drought and exceptional drought covered the greatest land areas in the 2nd series, while abnormal drought covered the greatest land area in the 1st series. The analysis of herds, a reduction in the cattle herd and an increase in goat and sheep herds were noted. This study considers the efficacy of NDDI and NDVI indices to monitor the distribution of droughts in the Brazilian semi-arid region. The geoprocess of Sidra data enabled an analysis of the spatial distribution and temporal variation of the herds in the semi-arid region and how drought may have impacted livestock dynamics.

Influence of Growing Miscanthus x giganteus on Ecosystem Services of Chernozem

The paper investigates the optimization of ecosystem services of podzolized heavy loamy chernozem (black soil) as a result of the cultivation of the perennial energy culture of Miscanthus x giganteus. The research was conducted on an experimental land plot during 2016–2021. No fertilization was applied to the soil during the experiments, and over the years of research, the growing seasons were accompanied by abnormal droughts, but even under such conditions, the plants of Miscanthus x giganteus gradually increased their yield. At the initial stage of research, in the third year of cultivation, dry biomass of Miscanthus x giganteus was obtained at 14.3 t/ha, in the fourth year–18.6 t/ha, and already in the fifth and sixth years, 21.7 and 24.5 t/ha, respectively. That is, energy-wise, the harvest for the last year was equivalent to 15.9 tons of coal or 12,618 m3 of natural gas. Cultivation of Miscanthus x giganteus on black soil for six years has improved the provision of its ecosystem services, regulation, and ecosystem maintenance services. The possibility of growing perennial energy crops on agricultural soils has been proven by obtaining a significant amount of biomass and a positive phytoremediation effect on the soil by reducing erosion, preserving biodiversity, sequestering carbon, and sustainably improving the ecological situation.

Surface water isoscapes (δ18O and δ2H) reveal dual effects of damming and drought on the Yangtze River water cycles

The water regimes and biogeochemical cycles are remarkably affected by river damming and drought around the world. However, the dual effects on river water cycles have not yet attracted sufficient attention along the Yangtze River because of the relative consistency of annual water regimes. This study first explored the altered water cycle associated with damming and drought using surface water isoscapes (δ18O and δ2H) of river and lake water along the Yangtze River during the flooding seasons of 2016 and 2018, combined with other historical isotopic data from 2003 to 2013. The results show that river water isotopes are markedly varied on both spatial and temporal scales. The relatively more enriched river water representing δ18O values were observed from 2003 to 2007 compared with those in 2018, which were possibly caused by increased evaporative fractionation under abnormal drought conditions in the Yangtze River. Spatially, river water δ18O values exhibited a positive trend from upstream to the lower reaches because of the contrasting recharged sources, complex mixing, and evaporation from upstream to the lower reaches of the Yangtze River. This trend was related to variations in surface water temperature and water evaporation during the flooding seasons evidenced by a significant correlation between river isotopes and river water temperature. Moreover, the large variability in deuterium-excess (d-excess) and δ18O in the downstream could be inherited from the upstream because of short residence time and incomplete mixing in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) during the initial stage of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) operation (2003–2007). In contrast, the relatively lower variability of d-excess and δ18O was found in the downstream area due to the complete mixing in the TGR, causing the homogenization of reservoir water during the normal operation stage after 2010 (e.g., 2013 and 2018). Drought stimulates evaporative fractionation on river water and result in more negative d-excess values especially in 2006. The dual effects of river damming and drought remarkably changed the longitudinal hydrological connectivity and water cycle dynamics by prolonging the residence time and enhancing the water mixing, which should be thoroughly considered for water resource management, especially for regions with heavily-regulated rivers.

Multi-Source Remote Sensing Data for Global Drought and Wetness Monitoring Based on Spatial Distance Drought Index (Sddi): Overall Status, Abnormal Drought and Sensitive Regions

Multi-Source Remote Sensing Data for Global Drought and Wetness Monitoring Based on Spatial Distance Drought Index (Sddi): Overall Status, Abnormal Drought and Sensitive Regions

Long-Term Lake Area Change and Its Relationship with Climate in the Endorheic Basins of the Tibetan Plateau

Lakes are sensitive indicators of climate change in the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which have shown high temporal and spatial variability in recent decades. The driving forces for the change are still not entirely clear. This study examined the area change of the lakes greater than 1 km2 in the endorheic basins of the Tibetan Plateau (EBTP) using Landsat images from 1990 to 2019, and analysed the relationships between lake area and local and large-scale climate variables at different geographic scales. The results show that lake area in the EBTP has increased significantly from 1990 to 2019 at a rate of 432.52 km2·year−1. In the past 30 years, lake area changes in the EBTP have mainly been affected by local climate variables such as precipitation and temperature. At a large scale, Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) has correlations with lake area in western sub-regions in the Inner Basin (IB). While Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) has a significant connection with lake area, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) does not. We also found that abnormal drought (rainfall) brought by the El Niño/La Niña events are significantly correlated with the lake area change in most sub-regions in the IB.

ОЦЕНКА РЕГИОНАЛЬНОЙ ДИНАМИКИ СЕБЕСТОИМОСТИ КАРТОФЕЛЯ В СЕЛЬСКОХОЗЯЙСТВЕННЫХ ОРГАНИЗАЦИЯХ ДЛЯ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ РАЗВИТИЯ АГРОПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННЫХ СИСТЕМ

To forecast the cost of potatoes in agricultural organizations as part of a system of models for forecasting agri-food systems developed at All-Russian Institute for Agrarian Issues and Informatics named after A.A. Nikonov regional differences in the actual and converted to the base year prices of the cost of potatoes, as well as the cost structure for the production of this crop were estimated. For this, a database was formed on the basis of consolidated annual reports of agricultural organizations for a period that ensured uniformity of costs in the production structure (2010 – 2016). Deflators were defined for conversion to base prices of 2016, for each cost item. Intervals of changes in the cost price and the share of cost items, characteristic both for the majority of producing regions and for regions belonging to extreme groups were identified using grouping methods. In the generated database for each region, it is determined that it belongs to a certain cost group, and a group for each of the cost items, which makes it possible to perform an additional more detailed analysis of the dynamics of each region and groups. It was revealed that the average Russian cost of potatoes fluctuated in a narrow range, even taking into account inflation and was characterized by a stable structure. Deviations were recorded only in the abnormally dry 2010 (at cost) and in the year following the abnormal – in structure. The regions responded to the consequences of the abnormal drought by increasing the cost of seeds and fertilizers, i.e. most essential for the continuation of the activities, while reducing all others, and in particular wages in the year following the unfavorable. It is determined that if there is a large regional variation in the share of cost items, a homogeneous aggregate is formed by regions, which make up 97% of the total production.

A Yield-Related Agricultural Drought Index Reveals Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Droughts in Southwestern China

Southwestern China (SWC), one of the major rain-fed wheat production zones in China, has become vulnerable to drought in recent years under global climate change. To quantify drought severity during the wheat growing season and its impact on yield loss, we selected the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) model to simulate wheat growth between 1961 and 2010 in SWC. A new drought index was developed considering different weighting factors of drought for yield loss in three growing phases. The index was shown to be reliable in assessing drought severity in the region. On average, an abnormal drought mainly occurred in mid-west Guizhou with a frequency of 10–30%. Central SWC was subjected to moderate drought with a frequency of 10–30%, whereas severe drought often occurred in Southern Sichuan and the middle of Yunnan with a frequency >50%. Temporally, drought severity fluctuated before 1990, but increased significantly afterwards. Our assessment suggested that irrigation during the period from floral initiation to flowering would help to ameliorate the effects of water stress under climatic variability in the region.

Analysis of streamflow droughts using fixed and variable thresholds

AbstractHydrological drought analysis is very important in the design of hydrotechnical projects and water resources management and planning. In this study, a methodology is proposed for the analysis of streamflow droughts using the threshold level approach. The method has been applied to Yermasoyia semiarid basin in Cyprus based on 30‐year daily discharge data. Severity was defined as the accumulated water deficit volume occurring during a drought event, in respect with a target threshold. Fixed and variable thresholds (seasonal, monthly, and daily) were employed to derive the drought characteristics. The threshold levels were determined based on the Q50 percentiles of flow extracted from the corresponding flow duration curves for each threshold. The aim is to investigate the sensitivity of these thresholds in the estimation of maximum drought severities for various return periods and the derivation of severity–duration–frequency curves. The block maxima and the peaks over threshold approaches were used to perform the extreme value analysis. Three pooling procedures (moving average, interevent time criterion, and interevent time and volume criterion) were employed to remove the dependent and minor droughts. The application showed that the interevent time and volume criterion is the most unbiased pooling method. Therefore, it was selected to estimate the drought characteristics. The results of this study indicate that monthly and daily variable thresholds are able to capture abnormal drought events that occur during the whole hydrological year whereas the other two, only the severe ones. They are also more sensitive in the estimation of maximum drought severities and the derivation of the curves because they incorporate better the effect of drought durations.

Drought Conditions Maximize the Impact of High‐Frequency Flow Variations on Thermal Regimes and Biogeochemical Function in the Hyporheic Zone

AbstractAnthropogenic activities, especially dam operations, often induce larger and more frequent stage fluctuations than those occurring in natural rivers. However, long‐term impacts of such flow variations on thermal and biogeochemical dynamics of the associated hyporheic zone (HZ) are poorly understood. In this study, we built a heterogeneous, two‐dimensional, thermo‐hydro‐biogeochemical model for an aerobic respiration dominated river system. Our results revealed important interactions between subdaily to weekly flow variations and mean flow conditions controlled by snowpack at the watershed. High‐frequency stage fluctuations had their strongest thermal and biogeochemical impacts when mean river stage was low during fall and winter. In an abnormal drought year (2015) with low river stages during summer and early fall, high‐frequency stage fluctuations caused the HZ to be warmer than average. Furthermore, high‐frequency stage fluctuation enhanced all biogeochemical reactions by increasing nutrient supply and creating more oxygenated conditions. Overall carbon consumption in the HZ increased due to high‐frequency flow variations. Thermal dynamics altered by high‐frequency stage fluctuation impacted biogeochemical reactions in the HZ less than effects imposed by enhanced nutrient and oxygen supply. In addition to these results, we demonstrated that the HZ's hydrogeologic properties control flow paths that influence residence times and nutrient supply and consequently control spatial distribution of biogeochemical reaction hot spots in the HZ. Here we provide scientific basis for assessing potential ecological consequences of high‐frequency flow variations in a regulated river, as well as guidance for maximizing potential benefits—or minimizing drawbacks—of dam regulation to riverine ecosystems.

High resolution monsoon precipitation changes on southeastern Tibetan Plateau over the past 2300 years

Climate changes on Southeastern Tibetan Plateau have important impacts on social and economic development, as well as the ecosystem of southwestern China and Indo-China Peninsula. Here, we collected two stalagmites from Shenqi (Miraculous) cave in southern Sichuan, China. The stalagmite δ18O record shows good coherence with local instrumental rainfall record, as well as tree ring- and pollen-based moisture reconstructions from southeastern Tibetan Plateau during overlapped time periods. As a result, we reconstructed high-resolution (∼4.9 yrs) monsoon precipitation variations on southeastern Tibetan Plateau over the past 2300 years by using the combined stalagmite δ18O record.The result reveals an overall decreasing precipitation trend, with two most notable wet periods occurred in 60–280 AD and 370–510 AD. The most remarkably dry period is the recent 200 years. Some decadal scale wet and dry intervals were also identified. The abnormal drought during 1160–1245 AD might have accelerated Dali kingdom's demise at 1253 AD. Power spectrum analysis indicated significant 373-, 187-, 22-, 12- and 11- yr cycles in our stalagmite record, suggesting the impact of solar activity. Increased monsoon precipitation on southeastern TP was observed in solar activity minima during the last millennium. We further synthesized an integrated precipitation record for southwestern China and discussed spatial patterns of precipitation over China during the last two millennia. The comparisons confirm a "dry southern and wet northern" pattern in monsoonal China during the Medieval Warm Period and a "wet southern and dry northern" pattern during the Little Ice Age and Dark Age Cold Period. Solar activity, the strength of westerly jet and summer monsoon, as well as the SST of tropical Indo-Pacific might play important roles on the rainfall spatial patterns over monsoonal China during the last 2000 years.

Geochemical characteristics of cave drip water respond to ENSO based on a 6-year monitoring work in Yangkou Cave, Southwest China

The scientific explanation of speleothem δ18O in Chinese monsoon region is a greatly debated issue. Modern cave monitoring combined with instrument observation maybe is an essential solution to deal with this issue. During the period from 2011 to 2016, we monitored local precipitation, soil water in three soil profiles, and six drip water sites in Yangkou Cave, which is located in Chongqing City, Southwest China. This article presents measurements about δ18O, δD and Mg/Ca ratios of drip water and compared these geochemical proxies with contemporaneous atmospheric circulations. The main conclusions are: (1) As water migrates from precipitation to soil water to cave drip water, the amplitudes of seasonal variations in δD and δ18O decreased gradually. Due to the existence of complex hydrogeological conditions, the range of variation and the seasonal characteristics of δD and δ18O differ among the drip sites where samples were collected, but the interannual variability is nearly the same. The drip water Mg/Ca ratios are mainly regulated by changes in hydrological conditions in the epikarst zone, with higher values during winter months than that during summer months. (2) When an El Niño event occurs, the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) is migrated westward, and the production of near-source water vapor from the western Pacific and the South China Sea increases, leading to higher δ18O values in the precipitation and the cave drip water. The drip water Mg/Ca ratios were significantly lower with increased summer precipitation. On the other hand, during La Niña events, the WPSH is migrated eastward, and inputs of water vapor that has traveled greater distances (from the Indian Ocean) become comparatively important, resulting in lower δ18O values in the precipitation and the cave drip water. The drip water Mg/Ca ratios were higher with decreased summer precipitation. In summary, the interannual variability of δ18O in the drip waters of Yangkou Cave reflects changes in water vapor sources caused by atmospheric circulation patterns. Mg/Ca ratios respond to changes of precipitation and CO2 in soil and can be used to reconstruct abnormal drought or flood events.

Performance Based Evaluation of Carbonation Resistance of Concrete According to Various Curing Conditions from Climate Change Effect

Recently, extreme climate change has been occurring globally not only in the simple form of temperature increases but also in a wide range of extreme climatic events, such as abnormal drought conditions and frequent typhoons. Among these various events, the greatest problem is found in global warming. The earth`s temperature has risen since the period of rapid industrial growth in the 1970s, and global warming occurs at the local level of regions and cities as well as the national level. The greenhouse gases that influence global warming include various types of chemical components, such as carbon dioxide (CO2), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), nitrous oxide (N2O), and methane (CH4). In addition, climate change is extending the construction period of concrete structures. Whereby increasing related economic losses. Pushing through construction projects without considering climate change is leading to concrete quality deterioration, causing poor constructions and consequently resulting in humans casualties and property damage. In particular, atmospheric CO2 generates calcium carbonate by reacting with concrete hydration products. This result is reinforcing bar corrosion and concrete durability reduction due to lowered alkalinity. Therefore, in this study, concrete durability performance with respect to carbonation resistance from curing conditions change due to wind speed and sunlight exposure time is evaluated. Based on concrete carbonation resistance data obtained using curing conditions of various wind speed and sunlight exposure time, performance based evaluation (PBE) is performed using the satisfaction curve (SC) developed from the carbonation resistance test results. Using the developed PBE of concrete performance, future concrete performance is predicted based on future climate scenario. Also, the concrete mix design solutions to the concrete performance degradation due to climate change effect is proposed.

Far infrared imaging, an effective way to screen maize seedling mutants for drought stress response

AbstractWater shortage is a global challenge and affects crop growth and development seriously. Stoma is the main channel of plant water transpiration. Water transpiration through stomata is an endothermic process and affects temperature of plants, especially leaf surface. In this study, we established a method for screening maize seedling mutant with abnormal leaf temperature by far infrared imaging. We found that seedling mutants with abnormal leaf temperature manifested different drought tolerance. Mutants with lower leaf temperature demonstrated faster moisture loss rate, poorer drought tolerance, higher osmotic potential, lower leaf relative water content, more accumulation of hydrogen peroxide, more serious cell membrane damage and more robust root systems and biomass under drought treatment, which are opposite in maize seedling mutants with higher leaf surface temperature compared with the corresponding control. Taken together, the method we established is an effective way to screen maize mutants with abnormal drought response.

Системная техноэкология и управляемые природно-технические системы

The result of the technogenic transformation of the environment is the formation of dynamic systems, denoted by the term «nature-technical systems». In the near future in these systems will exist not only people, but also most living organisms of the Earth. Therefore, the saving of favorable conditions in nature-technical systems becomes an increasingly actual task. The only possible way to solve this problem is to create special engineering systems — «ecological regulators». Ecological regulators at the regional level can serve as large hydroelectric power stations. They protect vast areas against abnormal droughts and floods. Ecological regulators of larger scale can be created during the installation of systems for interbasin freshwater resources transmission. The development of greenhouse effect causes a change in the rate of atmospheric fallout in different parts of the Earth. In some regions they decline catastrophically, somewhere else they increase abnormally. This causes bad harvests, hunger, the spread of epidemics and uncontrolled mass migrations. The disastrous droughts and floods also cause degradation of natural ecosystems. Managed nature-technical systems created on the base objects of interbasin water resources transmission at the same time will keep the geopolitical stability and conserve biodiversity in many regions. Successful implementation of these tasks, in practice, is impossible without the development of a reliable scientific-methodological basis, which includes a comprehensive study of the technical and environmental problems. This is the subject of study of the new scientific discipline — system technoecology.

A Water Balance Analysis for Assessing Water Demand and Supply in Administrative Districts

최근 우리나라뿐 아니라 세계 여러 국가에서 지구온난화와 기상이변의 이유로 홍수 및 이상가뭄이 빈발하고 있다. 기상변화에 의한 물순환의 변동은 미래 가용수자원량을 변화시킨다. 본 연구에서는 금호강 유역을 대상으로 기존 수자원장기종합계획에서 제시하고 있는 중권역 단위 물수지 분석을 행정구역단위로 세분화하여 수자원장기종합계획에서 사용했던 물수급 네트워크 모형인 K-WEAP 모형에 의한 물수지 분석을 실시하였다. 또한, 중권역 단위 물수지 분석 결과와 행정구역단위 물수지분석 결과를 비교하여 분석 단위에 따른 물수급 평가를 실시하였다. 그 결과, 생공용수의 경우 최대 갈수기에도 물부족이 발생하지 않았지만 농업용수의 경우는 포항시에서 2016년에는 548,000㎥, 2020년에는 547,000㎥, 2025년에는 497,000㎥ 물부족량이 발생하는 것으로 분석되었다. 이는 기존의 물수급 전망 방법론을 적용한 경우와 비교했을 때와 상이한 산정결과를 보여주었다. 본 연구에서 제시할 분석 방법은 미래의 수자원계획을 수립하는데 있어 새로운 분석 기준을 제시할 수 있는 자료로 활용될 것이다.Recently, a water supply and demand analysis based on floods and abnormal droughts situation due to climate change and global warming has been regarded as the most important method to predict capacity of future water supply. In this study, K-WEAP (Korea Water Evaluation And Planing System) model was used for water balance analysis in administrative districts in Geumho river basin. The results showed that, in case of domestic and industrial water, no water deficiency was expected even during the maximum dry-season. However, for agricultural water, the scenario-based estimation anticipated water deficiency at Pohang city, during the year 2016 (548,000㎥), 2020 (547,000㎥) and 2025 (497,000㎥). These results can be used as a reference to set a new standard on future establishment of water resource plans.

A Multi‐Taxa Assessment of Biodiversity Change After Single and Recurrent Wildfires in a Brazilian Amazon Forest

AbstractIn the last decades, due to human land management that uses fire as a tool, and due to abnormal droughts, many tropical forests have become more susceptible to recurrent wildfires with negative consequences for biodiversity. Yet, studies are usually focused on few taxa and rarely compare different fire frequencies. We examined if the effects of single and recurrent fires are consistent for leaf litter ants, dung beetles, birds (sampled with point‐counts PC and mist net‐MN), saplings, and trees. Recurrent fires had a great effect on forest structure, reducing live tree biomass and number of lianas, and increasing canopy openness and numbers of saplings alive. Recurrent fires had consistently stronger effects on species richness and composition across all sample groups than single fires, except ants. Birds and plants were more grouped in the congruence analysis. The average dissimilarities between control and recurrent‐burned forest were higher than between control and once‐burned forest for all sample groups, furthermore birds and vegetation communities in recurrent‐burned forest are almost entirely dissimilar from the unburned forest. While beta diversity of ants, birds (MN), and trees was not affected by the frequency of fire, it changed for dung beetles, birds (PC), and saplings. Effects of fire on faunal community structure were more due to indirect effects, through vegetation, than through the fire itself. These results reinforce the effect of single and recurrent fires on tropical forests, and highlight the mechanisms acting behind them. Policy‐makers need to explicitly address protection of tropical forests from wildfires in conservation planning.