90-day Postdischarge Deaths Research Articles

Risk-adjusted outcomes of inpatient medicare medical admissions.

It is important that actual outcomes of care and not surrogate markers, such as process measures, be used to evaluate the quality of inpatient care. Because of the heterogenous composition of patients, risk-adjustment is essential for the objective evaluation of outcomes following inpatient care. Comparative evaluation of risk-adjusted outcomes can be used to identify suboptimal performance and can provide direction for care improvement initiatives.We studied the risk-adjusted outcomes of 6 medical conditions during the inpatient and 90-day post-discharge period to identify the opportunities for care improvement. The Medicare Limited Dataset for 2012 to 2014 was used to identify acute myocardial infarction (AMI), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), congestive heart failure (CHF), pneumonia (PNEU), cerebrovascular accidents (CVA), and gastrointestinal hemorrhage (GIH). Stepwise logistic predictive models were developed for the adverse outcomes (AOs) of inpatient deaths, 3-sigma prolonged length-of-stay outliers, 90-day post-discharge deaths, and 90-day readmissions after unrelated events were excluded. Observed and predicted AOs were determined for each hospital with ≥75 cases for each of the 6 medical conditions. Z-scores and risk-adjusted AO rates for each hospital permitted comparative analysis of outcomes after adjusting for covariance among the medical conditions.There were a total of 1,811,749 patients from 973 acute care hospitals with the 6 medical conditions. A total of 41% of all patients had ≥1 AO events. One or more readmissions were identified in 29.8% of patients. A total of 64 hospitals (6.4%) were 2 standard deviations better than the mean for risk-adjusted outcomes, and 72 (7.4%) were 2 standard deviations poorer. The best performing decile of hospitals had mean AO rates of 35.1% (odds ratio = 0.766; 95% confidence interval (CI) CI: 0.762-0.771) and the poorest performing decile a mean AO rate of 48.5% (odds ratio = 1.357; 95% CI: 1.346-1.369). Volume of qualifying cases ranged from 670 to 9314; no association was identified for increased volume of patients (P < .40).Risk-adjusted AO rates demonstrated nearly a 14% opportunity for care improvement between top and suboptimal performing hospitals. Hospitals must be able to benchmark objective measurement of outcomes to inform quality initiatives.

Medicare risk-adjusted outcomes in elective major vascular surgery

BackgroundRisk-adjusted outcomes of elective major vascular surgery that is inclusive of inpatient and 90-day post-discharge adverse outcomes together have not been well studied. MethodsWe studied 2012–2014 Medicare inpatients who received open aortic procedures, open peripheral vascular procedures, endovascular aortic procedures, and percutaneous angioplasty procedures of the lower extremity for risk-adjusted adverse outcomes of inpatient deaths, 3-sigma prolonged length-of-stay outliers, 90-day post-discharge deaths without readmission, and 90-day post-discharge associated readmissions after excluding unrelated events. Observed and predicted total adverse outcomes for hospitals meeting minimum risk-volume criteria were assessed and hospital-specific z-scores and risk-adjusted adverse outcomes were calculated to compare performance. ResultsThe total adverse-outcome rate was 27.8% for open aortic procedures, 31.5% for open peripheral vascular procedures, 19.6% for endovascular aortic procedures, and 36.4% for percutaneous angioplasty procedures. The difference in risk-adjusted adverse-outcome rates between the best- and the poorest-performing deciles were 32.2% for open aortic procedures, 29.5% for open peripheral vascular procedures, 21.5% for endovascular aortic procedures, and 37.1% for percutaneous angioplasty procedures. The 90-day post-discharge deaths and readmissions were the major driver of overall adverse-outcome rates. ConclusionThe variability in risk-adjusted outcomes among best- and poorest-performing hospitals is over 20% in all major vascular procedures and indicates that a large opportunity exists for improvement in results.

Comparison of Risk-Adjusted Outcomes in Medicare Open versus Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy

More than 90 per cent of cholecystectomies are performed laparoscopically and this has resulted in concern that surgeons will not have sufficient experience to perform open procedures when clinical circumstances require it. We reviewed the open cholecystectomies (OCs) of Medicare patients from 2010 to 2012 in hospitals with 20 or more cases, created risk-adjusted models for adverse outcomes which were evaluated for 90-days after discharge, and compared the hospital-level outcomes with laparoscopic cholecystectomy performed in the same hospitals for the same period of time. Results demonstrated that inpatient deaths, inpatient prolonged length-of-stay outliers, 90-day postdischarge deaths without readmission, and 90-day readmissions were statistically the same with an overall adverse outcome rate of 21.6 per cent in OC versus 20.9 per cent in laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Conversion of laparoscopic to open procedures was not associated with increased adverse outcomes. Laparoscopic cholecystectomy provides patients with many advantages, but when clinical circumstances are necessary, OC continues to be performed with the same overall adverse outcome rates, and the conversion process is not associated with poorer results in this high-risk population of patients.

Risk-adjusted hospital outcomes in elective carotid artery surgery in patients with Medicare

BackgroundThe risk-adjusted outcomes by hospital of elective carotid endarterectomy that is inclusive of inpatient and 90-day postdischarge adverse outcomes have not been studied. MethodsWe studied Medicare inpatients to identify hospitals with 25 or more qualifying carotid endarterectomy cases between 2012–2014. Risk-adjusted prediction models were designed for adverse outcomes of inpatient deaths, 3-sigma prolonged duration-of-stay outliers, 90-day postdischarge deaths without readmission, and 90-day postdischarge associated readmissions. Standard deviations of predicted overall adverse outcomes were computed for each hospital. Hospital-specific z scores and risk-adjusted adverse outcomes were calculated. ResultsThere were 77,086 carotid endarterectomy patients from 960 hospitals complicated by 191 inpatient deaths (0.25%), 4,436 prolonged duration of stay (5.8%), 457 90-day postdischarge deaths (0.6%), and 7,956 90-day postdischarge associated readmissions (10.3%). In the 90-day postdischarge associated readmission patients, an additional 561 patients died after readmission, for total deaths of 1,209 (1.6%) for the study period, and 11,928 (15.5%) patients had one or more adverse outcomes. There were 29 best-performing hospitals (3.0%) with z scores of −2.0 or less (P < .05) with a median rate of risk-adjusted adverse outcomes of 7.1%. A total of 61 suboptimal performers (6.3%) had z scores of +2.0 or greater (P < .05) with a median rate of risk-adjusted adverse outcome rate of 26.4%. ConclusionHospital risk-adjusted adverse outcome rates for carotid endarterectomy are highly variable. Comparisons of hospital performance define the opportunity for improvement.

Risk-adjusted regional outcomes in elective medicare colorectal surgery

BackgroundRegional differences in utilization of services in healthcare are commonly understood, but risk-adjusted evaluation of outcomes has not been done. MethodsRisk-adjusted adverse outcomes (AOs) for elective Medicare colorectal resections were studied for 2012–2014. Risk-adjusted metrics were inpatient deaths, prolonged postoperative length-of-stay, 90-day post-discharge deaths, and 90-day relevant post-discharge readmissions. The nine Census Bureau regions of the U.S. were evaluated by using standard deviations of predicted adverse outcomes to evaluate observed versus expected events. ResultsOverall AO rate was 24.3% from 86,624 patients in 1497 hospitals. Region 9 (Pacific) had the best outcomes (z-score = −3.06; risk-adjusted AO rate = 22.9%) and Region 1 (New England) the poorest (z-score = +1.86; risk-adjusted AO rate = 25.4%). ConclusionsA 4.9 SD difference exists among the best and poorest performing regions in risk-adjusted colorectal surgery outcomes. Alternative Payment Models should consider regional benchmarks as a variable for the evaluation of quality and pricing of episodes of care.

Inpatient and 90-day post-discharge outcomes in elective Medicare spine fusion surgery

Background ContextElective spine surgery is a commonly performed operative procedure, that requires knowledge of risk-adjusted results to improve outcomes and reduce costs. PurposeTo develop risk-adjusted models to predict the adverse outcomes (AOs) of care during the inpatient and 90-day post-discharge period for spine fusion surgery. Study Design/SettingTo identify the significant risk factors associated with AOs and to develop risk models that measure performance. Patient SampleHospitals that met minimum criteria of both 20 elective cervical and 20 elective non-cervical spine fusion operations in the 2012–2014 Medicare limited dataset. Outcome MeasuresThe risk-adjusted AOs of inpatient deaths, prolonged length-of-stay for the index hospitalization, 90-day post-discharge deaths, and 90-day post-discharge readmissions were dependent variables in predictive risk models. MethodsOver 500 candidate risk factors were used for logistic regression models to predict the AOs. Models were then used to predicted risk-adjusted AO rates by hospitals. ResultsThere were 874 hospitals with a minimum of both 20 cervical and 20 non-cervical spine fusion patients. There were 167,395 total cases. A total of 7,981 (15.9%) of cervical fusion patients and 17,481 (14.9%) of non-cervical fusion patients had one or more AOs for an overall AO rate of 15.2%. A total of 54 hospitals (6.2%) had z-scores that were 2.0 better than predicted with a median risk adjusted AO rate of 9.2%, and 75 hospitals (8.6%) were 2.0 z-scores poorer than predicted with a median risk-adjusted AO rate of 23.2%. ConclusionsDifferences among hospitals defines opportunities for care improvement.

Defining Potentially Preventable Adverse Outcomes in Medicare Elective Lung Resections.

The aims of the study were to develop risk-adjusted models and apply them for comparisons of hospital performance to define potentially preventable adverse outcomes (OAs) in Medicare lung resection surgery. The Medicare Limited Data Set for 2010-2012 was used to design predictive risk models for the four OAs of inpatient deaths, prolonged length-of-stay outliers, 90-day postdischarge deaths without hospital readmission, and 90-day readmissions after removal of unrelated readmission events. The probability of adverse events for each hospital was used to compute the hospital-specific standard deviation (SD) tailored to patient risk profiles. Observed versus predicted adverse events divided by the hospital-specific SD identified the z score for each hospital. Risk-adjusted OA rates were then computed for comparing hospital performance. A total of 39,405 lung resection patients from 739 hospitals had 768 inpatient deaths (1.9%), 3147 had prolonged LOS (8.0%), 514 had 90-day postdischarge deaths without readmission (1.3 %), and 7701 had one or more 90-day readmissions (19.5%); 10,924 patients (27.7%) had one or more of these OAs. Twenty-six hospitals were two SDs better than predicted and 34 hospitals were two SDs poorer than predicted. When evaluated by deciles of risk-adjusted OAs, the top performing decile of hospitals had rates of 14.3% and the poorest performing decile had OA rates of 41.0%. The differences in risk-adjusted comparative outcomes between top- and suboptimal-performing hospitals in lung resections define the potential opportunities for care improvement. Identification of risk factors associated with OAs and causes for readmissions provides direction for specific areas of care redesign for improvement.

Admission Laboratory Results to Enhance Prediction Models of Postdischarge Outcomes in Cardiac Care

Predictive modeling for postdischarge outcomes of inpatient care has been suboptimal. This study evaluated whether admission numerical laboratory data added to administrative models from New York and Minnesota hospitals would enhance the prediction accuracy for 90-day postdischarge deaths without readmission (PD-90) and 90-day readmissions (RA-90) following inpatient care for cardiac patients. Risk-adjustment models for the prediction of PD-90 and RA-90 were designed for acute myocardial infarction, percutaneous cardiac intervention, coronary artery bypass grafting, and congestive heart failure. Models were derived from hospital claims data and were then enhanced with admission laboratory predictive results. Case-level discrimination, goodness of fit, and calibration were used to compare administrative models (ADM) and laboratory predictive models (LAB). LAB models for the prediction of PD-90 were modestly enhanced over ADM, but negligible benefit was seen for RA-90. A consistent predictor of PD-90 and RA-90 was prolonged length of stay outliers from the index hospitalization.

Benchmarking hospital outcomes for improvement of care in Medicare elective colon surgery

BackgroundRisk-adjusted outcomes are essential for hospitals to benchmark care improvement. MethodsWe used the Medicare Limited Data Set for 2010 to 2012 to create risk models in elective colon surgery for the adverse outcomes (AOs) of inpatient deaths, prolonged length-of-stay outliers, 90-day post-discharge deaths without readmission, and 90-day relevant readmissions. Risk models permitted the prediction of AOs for each hospital and the design of hospital-specific standard deviations (SDs) to define performance from observed values. Risk-adjusted AO rates were computed for hospital comparisons. ResultsIn all, 1,903 hospitals with 129,861 patients were studied. Overall AO rate was 27.8%; 84 hospitals had AO performance that was 2 SDs poorer than average and 66 were 2 SDs better. The top performing decile of hospitals had a risk-adjusted AO rate of 15.8%, whereas the lowest performing hospital's rate was 39.4%. ConclusionsBenchmarking risk-adjusted AOs identifies the opportunity for care improvement in elective colon surgery in Medicare patients.

Medicare inpatient and 90-day postdischarge adverse outcomes in carotid artery surgery

Longitudinal, risk-adjusted measurement of outcomes of carotid artery (CA) surgery is necessary for the evaluation of quality performance and for the assessment of strategies of quality improvement. Patients from quality coding hospitals who underwent CA surgery and met procedural and diagnostic coding requirements in the Medicare Inpatient Limited Data Set from 2009 to 2011 were used to design logistic prediction models for the Adverse Outcomes (AOs) of inpatient deaths, 3-sigma prolonged length-of-stay outliers (prLOS) among live discharges, 90-day post-discharge deaths without readmission (PD-90), and 90-day post-discharge readmissions (ReAdm-90). A total of 653 quality coding hospitals had 54,183 CA surgery cases. There were 122 inpatient deaths (0.23%) and 3,337 (6.2%) prLOS. After discharge, there were 258 patients that were PD-90 and 9,804 patients (18.1 % of live discharges) were readmitted. Among all readmissions, 1,592 (13.3%) were judged to be totally unrelated to the index operation. A total of 495 patients died during readmission to the hospital. The rate of total adverse outcome was 22.6% with all ReAdm-90 cases counted. In CA surgery, more AOs occur in the 90 days after discharge than during the inpatient period of care. ReAdm-90 remains the major cause for AOs and represents the greatest opportunity for improvement in the care of CA surgery patients.

Prediction models of Medicare 90-day postdischarge deaths, readmissions, and costs in bowel operations

BackgroundThe 90-day postdischarge morbidity and mortality rates following elective and emergent bowel surgery remain poorly defined. MethodsThe 2009 to 2011 Medicare inpatient files for patients undergoing elective and emergent small and large bowel operations in 1,024 hospitals that passed present-on-admission coding accuracy standards had prediction models designed for inpatient mortality, prolonged postoperative length of hospital stay (prLOS), 90-day postdischarge mortality and readmissions, and total hospital costs. ResultsOf 118,758 patients studied, there was a 4.7% inpatient mortality rate and 7.3% prLOS among live discharges. An additional 7,586 deaths and 26,969 readmissions occurred within 90 days of discharge. Prolonged preoperative and prolonged postoperative hospitalizations were significant (P < .0001) variables in predicting postdischarge deaths and readmissions. Total hospital costs were increased by over $18,000 per adverse outcome. ConclusionPostdischarge deaths and readmissions are more common than inpatient adverse events of death and prLOS in elective and emergent Medicare large and small bowel operations.