7-day Series Research Articles

Bivariate frequency analysis of low flow using copula functions (case study: Dez River Basin, Iran)

Accurate estimation of low flow as a criterion for different objectives in water resource management, including drought is of crucial importance. Despite the complex nature of water deficits, univariate methods have often been used to analyze the frequency of low flows. In this study, low flows of Dez River basin were examined during period of 1956–2012 using copula functions at the upstream of headbranches’ junction. For this purpose, at first 7-day series of low flow was extracted at the studied stations, then their homogeneity was examined by Mann–Kendall test. The results indicated that 7-day low flow series of Dez basin were homogenous. In the next stage, 12 different distribution functions were fitted onto the low flow data. Finally, for Sepid Dasht Sezar (SDS), Sepid Dasht Zaz (SDZ), and Tang Panj Bakhtiyari (TPB) stations, logistic distribution had the best fit, while for Tang Panj Sezar (TPS) station, GEV distribution enjoyed the best fit. After specifying the best fitted marginal distributions, seven different copula functions including Ali–Mikhail–Haq (AMH), Frank, Clayton, Galambos, Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern (FGM), Gumbel–Hougaard (GH), and Plackett were used for bivariate frequency analysis of the 7-day low flow series. The results revealed that the GH copula had the best fitness on paired data of SDS and SDZ stations. For TPS and TPB stations, Frank copula has had the best correspondence with empirical copula values. Next, joint and conditional return periods were calculated for the low flow series at the upstream of branches’ junction. The results of this study indicated that the risk of incidence of severe drought is higher in upstream stations (SDZ and SDS) when compared with downstream stations (TPB and TPS) in Dez basin. Generally, application of multivariate analysis allows researchers to investigate hydrological events with a more comprehensive view by considering the simultaneous effect of the influencing factors on the phenomenon of interest. It also enables them to evaluate different combinations of required scenarios for integrated management of basin and planning to cope with the damages caused by natural phenomena.

The Code Red Project: Engaging Communities in Health System Change in Hamilton, Canada

The communication of determinants of health and health outcomes normally executed through academic channels often fail to reach lay audiences. In April of 2010, the results of collaboration between academe and mass media were published in the Hamilton Spectator, one of Canada’s 10 largest English-language daily newspapers as a 7-day series. The aim of the collaboration was to describe the disparities in the determinants of health and health status that exists in the City of Hamilton’s neighbourhoods in a way that could be easily comprehended by a lay audience. Simple statistics, maps of the City’s neighbourhoods, interviews and stories were woven together to communicate these disparities. The reaction to the series was overwhelming. It spawned a new position in the municipal government, was discussed at the Provincial and Federal levels of governments, prompted the local university to alter plans, relocating a new health care centre to the greatest area of need as highlighted by the series, and won several local and national awards. The objective of this manuscript is to describe all aspects of the series, including the specific decisions made, the methods employed and the aftermath of its publication.

Evaluation of Eta Model seasonal precipitation forecasts over South America

Abstract. Seasonal forecasts run by the Eta Model over South America were evaluated with respect to precipitation predictability at different time scales, seasonal, monthly and weekly for one-year period runs. The model domain was configured over most of South America in 40km horizontal resolution and 38 layers. The lateral boundary conditions were taken from CPTEC GCM forecasts at T62L28. The sea surface temperature was updated daily with persisted anomaly during the integrations. The total time integration length was 4.5 months. The Eta seasonal forecasts represented reasonably well the large scale precipitation systems over South America such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. The total amounts were comparable to observations. The season total precipitation forecasts from the driver model exhibited large overestimate. In general, the largest precipitation errors were found in ASON season and the smallest in FMAM. The major error areas were located along the northern and northeastern coast and over the Andes. These areas were present in both models. The monthly precipitation totals indicated that the intra-seasonal variability, such as the monsoonal onset, was reasonably captured by the model. The equitable threat score and the bias score showed that the Eta Model forecasts had higher precipitation predictability over the Amazon Region and lower over Northeast Brazil. The evaluation of the precipitation forecast range showed that at the fourth month the forecast skill was still comparable to the first month of integration. Comparisons with the CPTEC GCM forecasts showed that the Eta improved considerably the forecasts from the driver model. Five-member ensemble runs were produced for the NDJF rainy season. Both driver model and Eta Model forecasts showed some internal variability in the SACZ and over the Andes regions. Comparison of the Eta Model seasonal forecasts against climatology showed that in general the model produced additional useful information over the climatology. Transient variability was evaluated by tracking the frontal passages along the eastern coast. The frontal timing was no longer captured by the model but some indication of the frequency and of the northward movement was given by the model forecast. Weekly precipitation totals were evaluated for the São Francisco Basin. Some parameters, such as the mean and the standard deviation of the 7-day total precipitation, were comparable to observations. The correlations between the forecast and the observed 7-day series were positive, but low.

Prevention of Airnray Obstructions during Sleep in Infants with Breath-Holding Spells by Means of Oral Belladonna: A Prospective Double-Blind Crossover Evaluation

We investigated whether the brief airway obstructions seen during sleep in infants with breath-holding spells were controlled by the autonomic nervous system. We studied 20 infants, with a history of breath-holding spells and a median age of 12 wk (range 4-46 wk). During sleep they had a median of 6 airway obstructions per 10-hr recording (range 3-16 events), with a median duration of 8 sec (range 4-12 sec). No explanation was found for the airway obstructions. In every infant, a double-blind crossover challenge was conducted. It included oral administration of tincture of belladonna, equivalent to 0.01 mg/kg weight of atropine, and placebo syrup containing no belladonna. The belladonna, or the placebo, was administered at bedtime for 7 days, followed by a 7-day washout period. Another 7-day series of syrup administration was then undertaken. A nighttime polygraphic recording was made after each 7-day series. It was the belladonna, and not the placebo, that induced the disappearance of the obstructions in 10 infants; these were called "drug responsive". In 5 children no effect was observed after either the placebo or belladonna; these infants were defined as "drug unresponsive". In 4 subjects the obstructions disappeared after both belladonna and the placebo; the children were considered to have an "inconclusive response". One infant was excluded from the study because he developed an airway infection. It is concluded that in some breath-holding infants, obstructed breathing episodes during sleep disappear after the administration of an atropinic drug. The observation could indicate a role of the autonomic nervous system in the control of the upper airways during sleep in infants.

A Comparison of Nucleic Acid Synthesis in the Mouse Oviduct and Uterus: Interactions Between Estradiol and Progesterone1

Concentrations of nucleic acids and protein were measured in the oviducts of ovariectomized mice following injection regimes chosen to induce both synergism and antagonism between estradiol and progesterone in the uterus. In the first experiment, a 4-day series of injections produced marked antagonism by progesterone of the estradiol-induced synthesis of DNA, RNA, and protein in the uterus. Whole-organ concentrations of RNA and protein were increased in the oviduct by estradiol, but these increases were not antagonized by progesterone. The 7-day series of injections used in the second experiment produced significant but not marked synergism with regard to DNA, RNA, and protein concentrations in the uterus. No significant effects of these injections were observed in the oviduct, with the exception of an apparent suppression of RNA and protein synthesis induced by prolonged treatment with progesterone. The mouse oviduct thus emerges as an organ whose genomic regulation by hormones is considerably different than that occurring in the uterus. DNA content of the oviduct could not be altered by any experimental treatment. Furthermore, with regard to the normal mouse reproductive cycle, it seems probable that most, if not all, of the effects of progesterone on oviductal function, either directly or in concert with estradiol, are mediated by mechanisms independent of those involved in the genomic regulation of RNA and protein synthesis, at least as assessed by whole-organ concentrations of nucleic acid and protein.

D-amphetamine and palatability of a saccharin solution

Twenty-four female albino rats were assigned randomly to receive a 7-day series of 3.0-mg/kg injections of either d-amphetamine sulfate in isotonic saline or saline IP. Half of each group drank.13% sodium saccharin solution, the other half water. Fluid intakes were analyzed as intake per unit body weight. No differences were found among groups prior to drug administration. The prediction that d-amphetamine would produce a more taste-conscious animal was not substantiated. D-amphetamine produced a decrease in saccharin intake and an increase in water intake relative to saline controls.