5-year Conditional Survival Research Articles

Conditional survival of younger patients with mantle cell lymphoma: Results from a randomized phase III trial of the European MCL Network.

During a fatal disease, patients often request updated information on their prognosis. After patients have already survived a certain time, conditional survival captures their future survival probability. We investigated conditional overall and failure-free survival in 473 younger mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) patients from a randomized phase III trial comparing immunochemotherapies R-CHOP and alternating R-CHOP/R-DHAP before autologous transplantation. Using conditional Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression, we estimated subsequent survival of patients who had survived 1-8 years, considering MIPI, Ki-67, and treatment failure status. Starting at a lower level, R-CHOP patients only showed increasing subsequent survival as they survived longer (5-year conditional survival: 72% and 81% after surviving 1 and 7 years), while R-CHOP/R-DHAP patients had stable future survival over time (77% and 78%). The prognostic value of MIPI diminished after 3 years in R-CHOP patients but remained unchanged after R-CHOP/R-DHAP. Patients with treatment failure had markedly inferior survival compared with those in ongoing remission, regardless of the time survived. The longer patients remained in remission, the longer they would stay free of treatment failures. Our results enable personalized counselling for younger MCL patients by offering dynamic prognosis and underscore the importance of highly effective first-line treatment to improve survival.

Expanding horizons: lung transplantation for non-IPF interstitial lung diseases

ObjectiveInterstitial lung diseases (ILDs) are diverse pulmonary disorders marked by diffuse lung inflammation and fibrosis. The variability in characteristics and treatment approaches complicates diagnosis and management. In advanced cases requiring transplantation, determining indications and selecting suitable candidates presents additional challenges.MethodsOf all patients with non-IPF ILD between December 2016 to December 2022 were analyzed retrospectively. Patients were categorized into two groups: transplanted patients and deceased patients on the waiting list. Clinical data and survival outcomes were compared between groups.ResultsOf the 43 patients, 20 underwent lung transplantation while 23 died awaiting transplantation. Waiting list mortality was 53.4%, with median waiting times similar between groups (3 months for transplant patients and 6 months for those on the waiting list). There were no significant differences between groups in age, gender, height, BMI, 6-minute walk test (6MWT), or forced vital capacity (FVC). The prevalence of pulmonary hypertension (PH) was 76.7% in right heart catheterizations, similar in both groups. One single and 19 bilateral lung transplants were performed. Overall, 13 of the 20 patients survived to discharge from the hospital. One-year mortality was 7/20 (35%). The median follow-up was 34 months, with a 1-year conditional survival of 90.9% at 3 years and 70.7% at 5 years.ConclusionsThis study underscores the importance of further research into non-IPF ILDs. Lung transplantation remains a viable option that can significantly enhance both the quality and longevity of life for patients with advanced ILD.

Brain metastases in newly diagnosed lung cancer: epidemiology and conditional survival.

The brain serves as the primary site for metastasis in patients with both non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and small cell lung cancer (SCLC). The presence of lung cancer with brain metastasis (LCBM) is a debilitating condition associated with considerable morbidity and mortality. The objective of this study was to assess the incidence and survival rates of LCBM in the United States population. We analyzed a total of 9,212 patients diagnosed with LCBM between 2010 and 2015, extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Our analysis assessed the incidence, relative survival, and conditional survival (CS) of LCBM. We utilized the Kaplan-Meier method to estimate overall survival and determine CS at year y+x after x years of survival, following the formula CS(y|x) = CS(y+x)/CS(x). Prognostic factor selection was performed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression approach, and multivariate Cox regression was employed to demonstrate the impact of these predictors on outcomes and construct a CS-based nomogram. The overall age-adjusted incidence rate of LCBM was 5.82 cases per 100,000, with a slight decline observed during our study period. Patient relative survival showed a continuous decline with increasing age. CS analysis revealed that the 5-year CS rate for patients initially diagnosed with LCBM adjusted from 3% to 13%, 28%, 52%, and 73% over successive years of survival (1-4 years). Identified predictors included age at diagnosis, sex, race, tumor size, tumor grade, surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy. These predictors, along with the CS formula, were employed to develop a CS-based nomogram for real-time prognosis prediction. Calibration curve, area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, concordance index (c-index), and decision curve analysis (DCA) demonstrated the model's strong predictive capabilities. This study deepened our understanding of LCBM patients, summarizing their epidemiological characteristics and CS patterns. We successfully developed a novel CS-based nomogram model for dynamic survival estimation, offering real-time and personalized prognostic information that is clinically valuable.

Prevalence and indicators of cure of Italian women with vulvar squamous cell carcinoma: A population-based study

ObjectiveFive-year net survival and conditional survival from vulvar squamous cell carcinoma (VSCC) in Italy have shown no progress during the past three decades. This study aims to estimate the complete prevalence and multiple indicators of cure for VSCC patients. MethodsObserved prevalence was estimated using 31 Italian cancer registries covering 47% of Italian women. A subset of 22 cancer registries was used to estimate model-based long-term survival and indicators of cure: complete prevalence, the cure fraction (CF), the time to cure (TTC), the proportion of 'already cured' patients, and the cure prevalence. ResultsIn 2018, VSCC patients alive in Italy (complete prevalence) were 6,620 or 22 per 100,000 women. The cure fraction (the proportion of newly diagnosed patients who will not die of VSCC) did not change between 2000 and 2010 both for all patients (32%) and in each age group. The time to cure (5-year conditional net survival >95%) was 11 years for patients aged ≥44 years, but excess mortality remained for >15 years in the other age groups. This led to a negligible (5%) proportion of ‘already cured’ patients (living longer than time to cure). The proportion of patients alive <2 years (21%) was the same as that of patients surviving ≥15 years. The cure prevalence (patients who will not die of VSCC) was 64%. A considerable proportion of patients will not be cured even among those who survived ≥5 years. ConclusionThere is an urgent need to reshape the current vulvar care model in Italy.

Chronic Myeloid Leukemia in Bulgaria in the New Millennium: Identification of Directions for Improvement in Management and Outcomes Reporting

Background: In the last two decades, tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) and advances in molecular diagnostics have revolutionized management and long-term clinical outcomes in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). Real-world data from different countries allow for the identification of country-specific issues in the clinical management and development of specific plans for improvement. Here, we aimed to analyze the trend in overall survival in Bulgarian CML patients since 2000. Methods: We retrieved publicly available Bulgarian CML data from several sources such as the Bulgarian National Cancer Registry, Bulgarian National Statistical Institute, and National Health Insurance Fund since 2000. We used the retrieved data of a total of 1513 Bulgarian CML patients to describe the trends in overall survival (OS), conditional overall survival, life expectancy, and life years lost over five time periods. We also described the trends in healthcare expenditures for TKIs and CML patients’ coverage with TKIs since 2014. Results: In both uni- and multivariate models, we found a constant increase in OS over the three 5-year periods until 2014. The period 2015–2019 was not associated with an additional increase in OS. Identical dynamics in the improvement in life expectancy (LE) and in life years lost (LYLs) was observed. Additionally, conditional 5-year survival did not improve during 2015–2019 in comparison to 2010–2014. Population-level data did not show consistent changes in the documented number of deaths due to CML since 2013. The period after 2013 is marked by a constant increase in the annual expenditures for TKIs, reaching to about 2.0 EUR/capita. The number of patients who received at least one TKI also increased during that period. Conclusions: After the initial significant improvement in the clinical outcomes for Bulgarian CML patients until 2014, subsequent periods did not bring further benefit in spite of the improved coverage with second- and third-line TKIs. Multiple factors may contribute to these suboptimal outcomes. Therefore, one can propose several additional measures at the country level, which could lead to additional improvement in the OS of Bulgarian CML patients.

Signet ring cells and conditional survival after trimodality therapy for esophageal adenocarcinoma.

Although signet ring cell (SRC) histology is associated with resistance to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and worse overall survival (OS) in esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), its prognostic relationship among patients who survive the early period following resection is unknown. EAC patients who underwent trimodality therapy at a single institution (2006-2018) were identified. Bayesian multivariable regression (BMR) analyses of OS and additional OS from a 3-year landmark were performed. Of 631 patients, SRCs were present in 16.0% (N = 101). SRC was associated with shorter median OS (45.8 [95% confidence interval: 31.0-96.7] vs. 79.8 [63.0-107.2] months; p = 0.014). In BMR analysis, the absence of an SRC component was moderately associated with improved OS (probability of beneficial effect, PBE = 0.879). Three-year conditional BMR analysis of additional OS (N = 357) showed that SRC status no longer had a prognostic effect (PBE = 0.546); higher pathological stage was strongly associated with worse additional OS (PBE < 0.001). The presence of SRC portends worse OS following trimodality therapy for EAC. However, this prognostic impact is dynamic and abates by 3 years postoperatively. In contrast, a higher pathological stage is strongly associated with poor overall and 3-year conditional survival. These findings may inform postoperative patient counseling and surveillance protocols.

Conditional survival and the prognostic value of serum carcinoembryonic antigen level in oldest old with colorectal cancer

BackgroundTo evaluate the clinical value of serum CEA levels and their implications on the diagnostic value of the conventional TNM staging system in the oldest-old patients with colorectal cancer (CRC).MethodsThe recruited subjects were colorectal cancer patients aged 85 and older. The cutoff value for normal CEA level is 5 ng/mL. Patients with elevated CEA levels were categorized as stage C1, and those with normal CEA levels as stage C0. A number of Cox proportional hazard regression models were established to evaluate the prognosis of different prognostic factors with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The Kaplan–Meier method was utilized to display the disparate prognostic impact of multiple clinicopathological factors with the log-rank test.ResultsA total of 17,359 oldest-old patients diagnosed with CRC were recruited from the SEER database. The conditional survival of oldest-old patients with CRC was dismal with a 1-year conditional survival of only 11%, 18%, and 30% for patients surviving 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively. Patients with stage C1 exhibited a 48.5% increased risk of CRC-specific mortality compared with stage C0 (HR = 1.485, 95%CI = 1.393–1.583, using stage C0 patients as the reference, P < 0.001). All the stage C0 patients indicated lower HRs relative to the corresponding stage C1 patients.ConclusionsDismal conditional survival of oldest-old patients with CRC should be given additional consideration. C stage influences the prognosis of oldest-old patients with CRC.

Trends in allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation survival using population-based descriptive epidemiology method: analysis of national transplant registry data.

Prognosis for patients undergoing hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) has been improving. Short-term survival information, such as crude survival rates that consider deaths immediately after the transplantation, may not be sufficiently useful for assessing long-term survival. Using the data of the Japanese HCT registry, the net survival rate of patients who survived for a given period was determined according to age, disease, and type of transplant. We included a total of 41,716 patients who received their first allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation between 1991 and 2015. For each disease, age group, graft source subcategory, net survival was calculated using the Pohar-Perme method, and 5-year conditional net survival (CS) was calculated. Ten-year net survivals of total patient cohort were 41.5% and 47.4% for males and females, respectively. Except for myelodysplastic syndrome, multiple myeloma, and adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma, 5-year CS for 5-year transplant survivors exceeded 90%. CS was especially high for aplastic anemia, of which was over 100% for children and younger adults receiving cord blood, suggesting that these patients have similar longevity to an equivalent group from the general population. These findings provide useful information for long-term survival, and can serve as benchmark for comparisons among registries, including other cancers.

Critical survival periods in prostate cancer in Sweden explored by conditional survival analysis.

We wanted to characterize conditional survival in prostate cancer (PC) in Sweden around and after 2005 when the vast increase in incidence due to the opportunistic testing for prostate specific antigen (PSA) culminated. We hypothesize that analyzing survival data during that time period may help interpret survival trends. We focus on stage-specific analysis using conditional survival in order to define the periods when deaths most commonly occurred. Data on PC patients were obtained from the Swedish cancer registry for analysis of 1-, 2.5- and 5-year relative survival and conditional relative survival between years 2004 and 2018. Tumor-node-metastatic stage classification at diagnosis was used to specify survival. Small improvements were observed in stage- and age-related relative survival duriring the study period. Applying conditional relative survival showed that survival in stage T3 up to 2.5 years was better than survival between years 2.5 and 5. Survival in stage T4 was approximately equal in the first and the subsequent 2.5-year period. For M1, the first 2.5 year survival period was worse than the subsequent one. The proportion of high risk and M1 disease in old patients (80+ years) remained very high and their survival improved only modestly. The data indicate that M1 metastases kill more patients in the first 2.5 years than between years 2.5 and 5 after diagnosis; T4 deaths are equal in the two periods, and in T3 mortality in the first 2.5-year period is lower than between years 2.5 and 5 after diagnosis. Conditional survival could be applied to explore critical survival periods even past 5 years after diagnoses and to monitor success in novel diagnostic and treatment practices. Improvement of survival in elderly patients may require clinical input.

Recurrent Intensive Care Episodes and Mortality Among Children With Severe Neurologic Impairment

Children requiring care in a pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) are known to have increased risk of subsequent mortality. Children with severe neurologic impairment (SNI)-who carry neurologic or genetic diagnoses with functional impairments and medical complexity-are frequently admitted to PICUs. Although recurrent PICU critical illness episodes (PICU-CIEs) are assumed to indicate a poor prognosis, the association between recurrent PICU-CIEs and mortality in this patient population is poorly understood. To assess the association between number of recent PICU-CIEs and survival among children with severe neurologic impairment. This population-based retrospective cohort study used health administrative data from April 1, 2002, to March 31, 2020, on 4774 children born between 2002 and 2019 with an SNI diagnosis code in an Ontario, Canada, hospital record before 16 years of age and a first PICU-CIE from 2002 to 2019. Data were analyzed from November 2021 to June 2023. Pediatric intensive care unit critical illness episodes (excluding brief postoperative PICU admissions). One-year survival conditioned on the number and severity (length of stay >15 days or use of invasive mechanical ventilation) of PICU-CIEs in the preceding year. In Ontario, 4774 children with SNI (mean [SD] age, 2.1 [3.6] months; 2636 [55.2%] <1 year of age; 2613 boys [54.7%]) were discharged alive between 2002 and 2019 after their first PICU-CIE. Ten-year survival after the initial episode was 81% (95% CI, 79%-82%) for children younger than 1 year of age and 84% (95% CI, 82%-86%) for children 1 year of age or older; the age-stratified curves converged by 15 years after the initial episode at 79% survival (95% CI, 78%-81% for children <1 year and 95% CI, 75%-84% for children ≥1 year). Adjusted for age category and demographic factors, the presence of nonneurologic complex chronic conditions (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 1.70 [95% CI, 1.43-2.02]) and medical technology assistance (AHR, 2.32 [95% CI, 1.92-2.81]) were associated with increased mortality. Conditional 1-year mortality was less than 20% regardless of number or severity of recent PICU-CIEs. Among children with high-risk PICU-CIEs, 1-year conditional survival decreased from 90% (95% CI, 89%-91%) after the first PICU-CIE to 81% (95% CI, 77%-86%) after the fourth PICU-CIE. This cohort study of children with SNI demonstrated a modest dose-dependent association between PICU-CIEs and short-term mortality. These data did not support the conventional wisdom that recurrent PICU admissions are associated with subsequent high mortality risk.

Trends in survival after heart transplantation based on Social Vulnerability Index in the United States

IntroductionThe association of social vulnerability (SV) and cardiac transplant survival remains poorly defined, particularly related to long-term outcomes. The purpose of this study was to define the impact of SV on survival among heart transplant recipients with at least 1-year of survival post-transplant. MethodsHeart transplant recipients were identified using the United Network for Organ Sharing database between 6/1/06-12/31/20. The Center for Disease Control’s Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) database was used to stratify patients based on SVI into three groups: Low: <25; Average: 26-74; High: 75+. The groups were analyzed with comparative statistics, and unadjusted survival was assessed using Kaplan-Meier methods. To determine the independent association between SVI and survival, a multivariable Cox proportional hazard model was created. ResultsThere were 27,740 recipients identified. High SVI patients more commonly identified as Black individuals and had a higher incidence of diabetes, pre-transplant intensive care unit admission and need for concomitant kidney transplant (p<0.05 for all). Additionally, High SVI patients had the longest length of stay post-transplant (21.4 days) (p<0.05). High and Average SVI patients had inferior 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year survival versus Low SVI patients (p<0.05). After adjustment, Average (hazard ratio [HR]:1.12) and High (HR:1.16) SVI were independently associated with an increased risk of mortality on multivariable analysis (both p<0.001). ConclusionHigh or average SVI is independently associated with increased mortality following heart transplantation in patients with 1-year conditional survival. These findings demonstrate that disparities persist among heart transplant recipients during long-term follow up.

Conditional Survival of Patients with Limited-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer After Surgery: A National Real-World Cohort Study.

The prognosis of limited-stage small cell lung cancer (LS-SCLC) after surgery usually is estimated at diagnosis, but how the prognosis actually evolves over time for patients who survived for a predefined time is unknown. Data on patients with a diagnosis of LS-SCLC after surgery between 2004 and 2015 were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The 5-year conditional cancer-specific survival (CCSS) and conditional overall survival (COS) were calculated. This study analyzed 997 patients (555 women, 55.7%) with a median age, of 67 years (interquartile range [IQR], 60-73 years). The 5-year CCSS and COS increased from 44.7% and 38.3%, respectively, at diagnosis to 83.7% and 67.9% at 5 years after diagnosis. Although there were large differences with different stages (stages I, II, and III) at diagnosis (respectively 59.5%, 28.4%; 28.1% for CCSS and 50.6%, 24.8%, and 23.6% for COS), the gap decreased with time, and the rates were similar after 5 years (respectively 85.0%, 80.3%, and 79.4% for CCSS; 65.6%, 56.9%, and 61.3% for COS). The 5-year conditional survival for the patients who received lobectomy was better than for those who received sublobectomy or pneumonectomy. Multivariable analyses showed that only age and resection type were independent predictors for CCSS and COS, respectively, throughout the period. Conditional survival estimates for LS-SCLC generally increased over time, with the most significant improvement in patients with advanced stage of disease. Resection type and old age represented extremely important determinants of prognosis after a lengthy event-free follow-up period.

Conditional survival to assess prognosis in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia

Biomarkers in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) allow assessment of prognosis. However, the validity of current prognostic biomarkers based on a single assessment point remains unclear for patients who have survived one or more years. Conditional survival (CS) studies that address how prognosis may change over time, especially in prognostic subgroups, are still rare. We performed CS analyses to estimate 5-year survival in 1-year increments, stratified by baseline disease characteristics and known risk factors in two community-based cohorts of CLL patients (Freiburg University Hospital (n = 316) and Augsburg University Hospital (n = 564)) diagnosed between 1984 and 2021. We demonstrate that 5-year CS probability is stable (app. 75%) for the entire CLL patient cohort over 10 years. While age, sex, and stage have no significant impact on CS, patients with high-risk disease features such as non-mutated IGHV, deletion 17p, and high-risk CLL-IPI have a significantly worse prognosis at diagnosis, and 5-year CS steadily decreases with each additional year survived. Our results confirm that CLL patients have a stable survival probability with excess mortality and that the prognosis of high-risk CLL patients declines over time. We infer that CS-based prognostic information is relevant for disease management and counseling of CLL patients.

Prognosis and conditional survival among women with newly diagnosed ovarian cancer

ObjectiveAn important question in determining long-term prognosis for women with ovarian cancer is whether risk of death changes the longer a woman lives. Large real-world datasets permit assessment of conditional survival (CS) given both prior overall survival (OS) and real-world progression-free survival (rwPFS). MethodsUsing a longitudinal dataset from US oncology centers, this study included 6778 women with ovarian cancer. We calculated CS rates as the Kaplan-Meier probability of surviving an additional 1 or 5 years, given no mortality (OS) or disease progression (rwPFS) event in the previous 0.5–5 years since first-line chemotherapy initiation, adjusted for factors associated with OS based on multivariable Cox regression. ResultsMedian study follow-up was 9 years (range, 1–44) from first-line initiation to data cutoff (17-Feb-2021). Median OS was 58.0 months (95% CI, 54.9–60.8); median rwPFS was 18.4 months (17.4–19.4). The adjusted 1-year CS rate (ie, rate of 1 year additional survival) did not vary based on time alive, whereas the adjusted 5-year CS rate increased from 48.5% (47.0%–50.1%) for women who had already survived 6 months to 66.4% (63.3%–69.6%) for those already surviving 5 years (thus surviving 10 years total). The adjusted 1-year CS rate increased from 90.4% (89.5%–91.4%) with no rwPFS event at 6 months to 97.6% (96.4%–98.8%) with no rwPFS event at 5 years; adjusted 5-year CS rate increased from 53.7% (52.0%–55.5%) to 85.0% (81.2%–88.9%), respectively. ConclusionsThis analysis extends the concept of CS by also conditioning on time progression-free. Patients with longer rwPFS experience longer survival than patients with shorter rwPFS.

Abstract 16034: Heart Transplant in Older Adults: Outcomes in the Modern Era of Transplant

Introduction: The total number and the proportion of older adults receiving heart transplants have increased over the last two decades. In 2016, the ISHLT guidelines for patients over 70 years of age were updated to remove the use of an alternate-type pool of donors, and now recommend transplanting carefully selected patients over 70 from the general pool. Aims: This study examines outcomes of older adults (&gt;70) who receive heart transplants in the modern era. Methods: Adult patients who received heart transplant between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2021 were identified in the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) registry. Outcomes of interest were mortality at 1 and 5 years after heart transplant. Results: Those over 70 were more likely to be male, white, have an ischemic etiology of their heart failure, and have had a prior malignancy. Overall mortality at 1 year was 10.8% for those over 70 and 8.9% for those under 70 (p&lt;0.033). Overall mortality at 5 years was 12.8% for those over 70 and 19.8% for those under 70 (p=0.37). Time to event survival analysis showed mortality was higher at 1 (HR 1.25, 1.04-1.51, p=0.019) and 5 years (HR 1.21, 1.05-1.39, p=0.006), however if patients conditionally survived the first year, 5-year conditional mortality was not different (HR 1.17, 0.95-1.43, p=0.135). Those over 70 were less likely to suffer from rejection, more likely to die from infectious disease or malignancy, but less likely to die from cardiovascular causes or graft failure. Conclusions: Older adults (over 70) who receive heart transplants have slightly worse 1- and 5-year survival but similar conditional 5-year survival to those under 70—the difference is driven by mortality in the first year. Both cohorts’ survival curves are improved compared to transplants in earlier eras. Those over 70 are less likely to experience rejection, consistent with the well-described phenomenon of immunosenescence.

Survival analysis in patients with follicular dendritic cell sarcoma: a population-based study

ABSTRACTFollicular dendritic cell sarcoma (FDCS) is a rare low-intermediate grade malignant neoplasm. To date, published data on FDCS clinical courses are sparse, and no conditional survival study has been performed. Thus, we retrospectively analyzed 187 patients diagnosed with FDCS from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. In this study, the median age at diagnosis was 50 years and 91 (48.7%) patients were male. The most common primary location was the abdomen/pelvis (82, 43.9%). The 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year overall survival (OS) were 88.7%, 69.0%, and 59.8%, respectively. The 5-year conditional overall survival increased from 65.7% at baseline to 83.8% in 5-year survivors. The 3-year FDCS-specific death rate was 26.7% and the rate of death from other reasons was 3.7%. In addition, the annual death hazard was the highest in the first four years after diagnosis and increased again in the 7th and 8th years. Age > 60 years at diagnosis, metastatic disease, and FDCS in thoracic organs were associated with shorter OS and FDCS-specific survival. In addition, FDCS patients, with either local or metastatic disease, could benefit from surgery therapy. In addition, adjuvant radiotherapy or chemotherapy for local disease provided no significant improvement in overall survival or FDCS-specific survival. We hope these findings may guide treatments and surveillance strategies for FDCS patients in clinical practice.

Conditional survival following radical cystectomy for urothelial carcinoma of the bladder

IntroductionTraditional surveillance protocols do not adequately account for the decreasing risk of mortality over time in aggressive malignancies, such as bladder cancer. Rather, the risk of death depends on both the baseline risk of mortality and the time survived since treatment. We therefore evaluated the conditional survival of patients diagnosed with urothelial carcinoma of the bladder (UCB) following radical cystectomy (RC). Patients and methodsWe identified patients aged 18 to 75 with Charlson 0-1 and pTany pN0-3 cM0 UCB diagnosed from 2006 to 2015 in the National Cancer Database and treated with RC. The 2- and 5-year conditional overall survival (COS)—i.e., the probability of surviving an additional 2- or 5-years given a specified time survived since treatment—was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariable Cox regression models with landmark time analysis were used to evaluate the associations of baseline characteristics with OS over time. ResultsA total of 15,594 patients were included in the study. Median follow-up was 27.8 months. The 2- and 5-year COS for the overall cohort increased through 36 months follow-up and then plateaued. When stratified by pT and pN stage, the COS gain increased with higher pT and pN stage, demonstrating the greatest increase over time for patients with pTany N1-3 disease (5-year COS of 23% at baseline, 58% at 36-months, and 71% at 60-months). In multivariable Cox regression modeling, pT and pN stage were significantly associated with higher all-cause mortality at baseline (HR 3.27 for pT4, HR 2.57 for pT3 vs. ≤pT2; HR 2.26 for pN2-3, HR 1.77 for pN1 vs. pN0), but these associations were attenuated in magnitude with increasing landmark times of 36- and 60-months (HR 1.63 for pT4, HR 1.35 for pT3 vs. ≤pT2; HR 1.34 for pN2-3, HR 1.27 for pN1 vs. pN0). Our study is limited by the retrospective design and the lack of cancer-specific survival data. ConclusionsRisk of death after RC varies with time elapsed since treatment and disease stage. Accordingly, stage-specific COS may be used to improve prognostication and surveillance protocols.

In the era of outpatient ventricular assist devices, is it time to reconsider the practice of bridging older children to transplant on outpatient inotropes?

ObjectiveVentricular assist devices (VADs) and inotropes are feasible modalities to bridge children to heart transplant (HT) in outpatient settings. However, it is unclear which modality yields superior clinical status at HT and posttransplant survival. MethodsThe United Network for Organ Sharing was used to identify patients aged 18 years or younger, weighing >25 kg, from 2012 to 2022 who were outpatients at HT (n = 835). Patients were grouped by bridging modality at HT: VAD (n = 235 [28%]), inotropes (n = 176 [21%]), or neither (no support) (n = 424 [50%]). ResultsVAD patients were of similar age (P = .260) but heavier (P = .007) and more likely to have dilated cardiomyopathy (P < .001) than their inotrope counterparts. VAD patients had similar clinical status at HT but superior functional status (performance scale >70%) (59% vs 31%) (P < .001). Overall posttransplant survival in VAD patients (1-year and 5-year survival, 97% and 88%, respectively) was comparable to patients with no support (93% and 87%, respectively) (P = .090) and those on inotropes (98% and 83%, respectively) (P = .089). One-year conditional survival was superior for VAD vs inotrope (2-year and 6-year survival, 96% and 91%, respectively vs 97% and 79%, respectively) (P = .030) and 5-year conditional survival for VAD patients was superior to inotrope (7-year and 10-year survival, 100% and 100%, respectively vs 100% and 88%, respectively) (P = .022) and no support (100% and 83%, respectively) (P = .011). ConclusionsConsistent with prior studies, short-term outcomes for pediatric patients bridged to HT in the outpatient setting with VAD or inotropes is excellent. However, compared with outpatients bridged to HT on inotropes, outpatient VAD support allowed for better functional status at HT and superior late posttransplant survival.

Descriptive epidemiology of the head and neck cancers in old patients.

In Europe, as in other high-income (HI) countries, quite half of the newly diagnosed patients with head and neck (H and N) cancers are older than 65 years of age and their proportion within the prevalent cases is even higher. Moreover, the incidence rate (IR) for all H and N cancers sites increased with age and the survival rate is lower in older patients (≥65), compared with younger patients (<65). The number of older patients affected by H and N cancers will increase because of the increase in life expectancy. The aim of the article is to provide an epidemiological description of H and N cancers in the elderly population. Incidence and prevalence data by time periods and continents were extracted from the Global Cancer Observatory. The survival information for Europe is obtained from the EUROCARE and RARECAREnet projects. In 2020, according to the results from these data, slightly more than 900,000 cases have been diagnosed with H and N cancers in the world, and approximately 40% were older than 65 years of age. This percentage was higher, reaching approximately 50% in the HI countries. The highest number of cases was in the Asiatic populations, while the highest crude IR was in Europe and Oceania. Among H and N cancers occurring in the elderly, laryngeal and oral cavity cancers were the most common, while nasal cavities and nasopharyngeal cancers were the rarest. This was true for all the countries, excluding some Asiatic populations, in which tumour of the nasopharynx was more common. The five-year survival rate in the European population was low in the elderly, compared with the younger for all H and N cancers, and it ranged from approximately 60% for both salivary-gland type and laryngeal to 22% for hypopharyngeal tumors. For the elderly, the conditional 5-year survival after surviving one year became more than 60% for many H and N epithelial tumors. The high variability in the H and N cancer incidence around the world is due to the distribution of the major risk factors which for the elderly are mainly alcohol and smoking. The reasons for low survival in the elderly are most likely due to the complexity of treatment, the late arrival of patients at diagnosis, and the difficult access to specialized centers.

Conditional survival in multiple myeloma and impact of prognostic factors over time

Overall survival estimates from diagnosis are valuable for guiding treatment, but do not consider the years already survived. Conditional survival (CS) provides dynamic survival predictions over time. This study was conducted to estimate CS at 1–8 years from diagnosis and the impact of baseline prognostic factors on CS in multiple myeloma (MM) patients. This is a retrospective study including 2556 MM patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2019. CS (t | s) was defined as the probability of surviving t years given survival of s years. Median age was 64 years. Median follow-up was 6.2 years and median overall survival from diagnosis was 7.5 years. The 5-year CS estimates at s = 0, 1, 2, 3, and 5 years were 0.64, 0.61, 0.61, 0.61, and 0.58, respectively. On multivariate analysis, age ≥ 65 and proteasome inhibitor+immunomodulatory-based induction were associated with decreased survival and increased survival, respectively, retained at 5 years. The adverse impact of 1q gain/amplification, high-risk IgH translocation, and ISS-3 was significant at 1 and 3 years but not 5 years. Chromosome 17 abnormality was associated with decreased survival only at 1 year. Among MM patients, 5-year CS was stable at 1–5 years from diagnosis. The prognostic impact of high-risk cytogenetic factors decreased with additional years survived.