Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a neurological demyelinating disorder affecting brain and spinal cord by attacking the myelin sheaths of nerves. Estimation of the volumetric changes in MS lesions is a challenging and specialized task which is executed and judged by medical experts. The change in the volume of the lesions provides crucial information on MS progression or regression by comparing the magnetic resonance images (MRI) taken in successive scans. However, visual comparison of the images, even with an expert eye, would not always lead to a conclusive decision nor a consensus on progression or regression. Therefore, we present an automated expert system for estimating MS progression rate by automatic lesion segmentation and volume estimation using two-dimensional MRIs, which is also adaptable to various parameters, slice thickness and increment. A clinical dataset is specially formed for this research which contains three sets of 135 MR images of an MS patient generated within approximately 23- and 6-month periods consecutively with identical device parameters. The lesions are segmented by a novel Rayleigh-Weibull-Fuzzy (RWF) imaging method based on the Nakagami distribution and specialized fuzzy 2-means. Subsequently, the segmentation module is trained to fit the ground truths images created by experts to achieve the highest dice score possible for a total number of 56 images containing lesions, which is found as 93.76%. Afterwards, several imaginary image sequences are generated by augmented linear and nonlinear morphing for re-segmentation of imaginary lesions by RWF. Finally, we estimated the volumetric change between the first two MRI sequences to adjust the morphing module and to predict the progression rate of the lesions in time. The framework automatically selected the highest accuracy, which is 99.9% in the training session and estimated the progression rate in the testing phase with 99.69% accuracy, which are not achievable without augmented morphing methodology. For the first time in the literature, an automated framework could estimate the MS progression rate from the raw MR images, which is also the main innovation of this paper and the outputs would be beneficial for the experts working on this field.
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