1012 Background: In ML-3, ribociclib (RIB) demonstrated a significant PFS/OS benefit over placebo (PBO) in pts with HR+/HER2− ABC. We report associations of on-tx ∆ctDNA with OS/PFS and tumor size and of ctDNA detectability with radiological progression. Methods: Pts were randomized 2:1 to RIB or PBO + fulvestrant as 1st- or 2nd-line tx. ctDNA levels were measured by NGS at cycle 1 day 1 (C1D1), C4D1, C8D1, and every 8 cycles until end of tx. Analyses included: Wilcoxon rank sum text to compare ∆ctDNA from C1D1 to C4D1; Kaplan-Meier method to visualize relationship of ctDNA with PFS/OS; Cox proportional hazards model for associations of ctDNA and tumor metrics (objective response rate, best % change, % change at 1st tumor evaluation); Fisher’s exact test to compare ctDNA detectability between arms; and ∆ctDNA across time points to assess lead time between ctDNA level-based and radiological progression. Results: Overall, 534/726 (73.6%) pts had paired C1/C4 measurements. Rates of detectable (+) and undetectable (−) ctDNA at C1 and C4 were: C1+/C4+, 33.0%; C1+/C4−, 34.5%; C1−/C4−, 27.5%; and C1−/C4+, 5.1%. RIB vs PBO had a larger % decrease in ctDNA level from C1 to C4 (P=0.003). Pts with better best overall response also had larger ctDNA decreases from C1 to C4 (P<0.0001). On-tx ∆ctDNA from C1 to C4 correlated with PFS/OS (P<0.0001; Table). C1-/C4-, C1+/C4-, and C1+/C4+ strongly correlated with PFS within response categories (PR, SD, NCRNPD). C1-to-C4 % ∆ctDNA was only moderately correlated with tumor size change (best % change, r=0.41; change at 1st evaluation, r=0.32; both P<0.001). Univariate/multivariate analyses showed significant correlations between ctDNA metrics (% change, detection pattern at C4D1) and PFS/OS. ctDNA detection and % change generally remained significantly associated with PFS/OS even after adjusting for change in tumor size. In a longitudinal analysis of pts who cleared ctDNA at C4D1 (C4–), the median lead time between ctDNA progression and radiological progression was 8.2 mo (IQR 4.5–15.6). Conclusions: On-tx ∆ctDNA from C1 to C4 was correlated with PFS/OS even after adjusting for tumor size changes, suggesting that ctDNA and tumor dynamics capture distinct aspects of tumor tx responses. Decreases in ctDNA were greater with RIB vs PBO, mirroring ML-3 efficacy readouts but at a much earlier timepoint. This longitudinal analysis of ctDNA in ML-3 suggests that detecting ∆ctDNA is a sensitive way to monitor progression and may be a potential surrogate for efficacy in HR+/HER2− ABC. Clinical trial information: NCT02422615 . [Table: see text]
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