23rd Century Research Articles

Atmosphere and ocean energy transport in extreme warming scenarios

Extreme scenarios of global warming out to 2300 from the SSP5-8.5 extension scenario are analyzed in three state-of-the-art climate models, including two models with climate sensitivity greater than 4.5°C. The result is some of the largest warming amounts ever seen in simulations run over the historical record and into the future. The simulations exhibit between 9.3 and 17.5°C global mean temperature change between pre-Industrial and the end of the 23rd century. The extremely large changes in global temperature allow exploration of fundamental questions in climate dynamics, such as the determination of moisture and energy transports, and their relation to global atmosphere-ocean circulation. Three models performed simulations of SSP5-8.5 to 2300: MRI-ESM2-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR, and CanESM5. We analyze these simulations to improve understanding of climate dynamics, rather than as plausible futures. In the model with the most warming, CanESM5, the moisture content of the planet more than doubles, and the hydrologic cycle increases in intensity. In CanESM5 and IPSL-CM6A-LR nearly all sea ice is eliminated in both summer and winter in both hemispheres. In all three models, the Hadley circulation weakens, the tropopause height rises, and storm tracks shift poleward, to varying degrees. We analyze the moist static energy transports in the simulations using a diffusive framework. The dry static energy flux decreases to compensate for the increased moisture transport; however the compensation is imperfect. The total atmospheric transport increases but not as quickly as expected with a constant diffusivity. The decrease in eddy intensity plays an important role in determining the energy transports, as do the pattern of cloud feedbacks and the strength of ocean circulations.

Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic ice shelf melting in conditions plausible by late 23rd century in a high-end scenario

Abstract. How much Antarctic ice shelf basal melt rates can increase in response to global warming remains an open question. Here we describe the response of the Southern Ocean and ice shelf cavities to an abrupt change to high-end atmospheric conditions plausible by the late 23rd century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. To achieve this objective, we first present and evaluate a new 0.25∘ global configuration of the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean NEMO System Team, 2019) ocean and sea ice model. Our present-day simulations demonstrate good agreement with observational data for key variables such as temperature, salinity, and ice shelf melt rates, despite the remaining difficulties to simulate the interannual variability in the Amundsen Sea. The ocean response to the high-end atmospheric perturbation includes a strengthening and extension of the Ross and Weddell gyres and a quasi-disappearance of sea ice, with a subsequent decrease in production of High Salinity Shelf Water and increased intrusion of warmer water onto the continental shelves favoured by changes in baroclinic currents at the shelf break. We propose to classify the perturbed continental shelf as a “warm–fresh shelf”. This induces a substantial increase in ice shelf basal melt rates, particularly in the coldest seas, with a total basal mass loss rising from 1180 to 15 700 Gt yr−1 and an Antarctica averaged melt rate increasing from 0.8 to 10.6 m yr−1. In the perturbed simulation, most ice shelves around Antarctica experience conditions that are currently found in the Amundsen Sea, while the Amundsen Sea warms by 2 ∘C. These idealised projections can be used as a base to calibrate basal melt parameterisations used in long-term ice sheet projections.

Settlements of Local Phase of Corded Ware culture in Moravia

In the context of the long discussion on the (non-)existence of permanent Corded Ware culture (CWC) settlements and the semi-nomadic way of life of their inhabitants, ongoing excavations of common settlements have newly gained immense significance, as in almost all other regions, also in Moravia (Olomouc-Slavonín, Horní lán; Vřesovice; Seloutky; Hulín-Pravčice 1; Prostějov, Za tržištěm). Earlier sporadic indications have been joined by a series of records of settlements with sunken features and typical local ceramics identical with burial grounds, together with which they formed complete settlement areas in a number of sites. Light wattle structures, wells(?), textile production, animal husbandry, etc., have been identified, as were some very unconventional inhumation burials in pits (Olomouc-Slavonín, two cases). The cord element clearly formed a part of the mixed horizon of Strachotín-Držovice with elements of Makó/Kosihy-Čaka culture, Globular Amphora culture and Moravian Group of CWC. Absolute dating indicated the 26th–23rd century cal. BC. Absence of foundations of (residential) structures could be explained by the lower level of recognisability of CWC settlements. In other aspects, it showed no particular difference from other prehistoric farmers and cattle breeders.

Probabilistic population forecasting: Short to very long-term

Population forecasts are used by governments and the private sector for planning, with horizons up to about three generations (around 2100) for different purposes. The traditional methods are deterministic using scenarios, but probabilistic forecasts are desired to get an idea of accuracy, assess changes, and make decisions involving risks. In a significant breakthrough, since 2015, the United Nations has issued probabilistic population forecasts for all countries using a Bayesian methodology that we review here. Assessment of the social cost of carbon relies on long-term forecasts of carbon emissions, which in turn depend on even longer-range population and economic forecasts, to 2300. We extend the UN method to very-long range population forecasts by combining the statistical approach with expert review and elicitation. While the world population is projected to grow for the rest of this century, it will likely stabilize in the 22nd century and decline in the 23rd century.

Quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the Filchner–Ronne basin, Antarctica

Abstract. The future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in response to climate warming is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in estimates of future changes in global mean sea level (ΔGMSL). Mass loss is currently concentrated in regions of warm circumpolar deep water, but it is unclear how ice shelves currently surrounded by relatively cold ocean waters will respond to climatic changes in the future. Studies suggest that warm water could flush the Filchner–Ronne (FR) ice shelf cavity during the 21st century, but the inland ice sheet response to a drastic increase in ice shelf melt rates is poorly known. Here, we use an ice flow model and uncertainty quantification approach to project the GMSL contribution of the FR basin under RCP emissions scenarios, and we assess the forward propagation and proportional contribution of uncertainties in model parameters (related to ice dynamics and atmospheric/oceanic forcing) on these projections. Our probabilistic projections, derived from an extensive sample of the parameter space using a surrogate model, reveal that the FR basin is unlikely to contribute positively to sea level rise by the 23rd century. This is primarily due to the mitigating effect of increased accumulation with warming, which is capable of suppressing ice loss associated with ocean-driven increases in sub-shelf melt. Mass gain (negative ΔGMSL) from the FR basin increases with warming, but uncertainties in these projections also become larger. In the highest emission scenario RCP8.5, ΔGMSL is likely to range from −103 to 26 mm, and this large spread can be apportioned predominantly to uncertainties in parameters driving increases in precipitation (30 %) and sub-shelf melting (44 %). There is potential, within the bounds of our input parameter space, for major collapse and retreat of ice streams feeding the FR ice shelf, and a substantial positive contribution to GMSL (up to approx. 300 mm), but we consider such a scenario to be very unlikely. Adopting uncertainty quantification techniques in future studies will help to provide robust estimates of potential sea level rise and further identify target areas for constraining projections.

The Emergence and Transient Nature of Arctic Amplification in Coupled Climate Models

Under rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the Arctic exhibits amplified warming relative to the globe. This Arctic amplification is a defining feature of global warming. However, the Arctic is also home to large internal variability, which can make the detection of a forced climate response difficult. Here we use results from seven model large ensembles, which have different rates of Arctic warming and sea ice loss, to assess the time of emergence of anthropogenically-forced Arctic amplification. We find that this time of emergence occurs at the turn of the century in all models, ranging across the models by a decade from 1994–2005. We also assess transient changes in this amplified signal across the 21st century and beyond. Over the 21st century, the projections indicate that the maximum Arctic warming will transition from fall to winter due to sea ice reductions that extend further into the fall. Additionally, the magnitude of the annual amplification signal declines over the 21st century associated in part with a weakening albedo feedback strength. In a simulation that extends to the 23rd century, we find that as sea ice cover is completely lost, there is little further reduction in the surface albedo and Arctic amplification saturates at a level that is reduced from its 21st century value.

Avoiding the “Great Filter”: A Projected Timeframe for Human Expansion Off-World

A foundational model has been developed based on trends built from empirical data of space exploration and computing power through the first six plus decades of the Space Age, which projects the earliest possible launch dates for human-crewed missions from cis-lunar space to selected Solar System and interstellar destinations. The model uses computational power, expressed as transistors per microprocessor, as a key broadly limiting factor for deep space missions’ reach and complexity. The goal of this analysis is to provide a projected timeframe for humanity to become a multi-world species through off-world colonization, and in so doing all but guarantee the long-term survival of the human race from natural and human-caused calamities that could befall life on Earth. Beginning with the development and deployment of the first nuclear weapons near the end of World War II, humanity entered a ‘Window of Peril’, which will not be safely closed until robust off-world colonies become a reality. Our findings suggest that the first human-crewed missions to land on Mars, selected Asteroid Belt objects, and selected moons of Jupiter and Saturn can occur before the end of the 21st century. Launches of human-crewed interstellar missions to exoplanet destinations within roughly 40 lightyears of the Solar System are seen as possible during the 23rd century and launch of intragalactic missions by the end of the 24th century. An aggressive and sustained space exploration program, which includes colonization, is thus seen as critical to the long-term survival of the human race.

Absolute chronology of Black Wheel Made Ware in the southern Levant and its synchronization with the northern Levant

Black Wheel Made Ware (BWMW) is a distinguished pottery-type of the Intermediate Bronze Age (EB IV) in the Levant, a period dated to the second half of the 3rd millennium BCE. Considerable research was done both on the origin of BWMW and on how these vessels reflect inter-regional relations. This paper presents the first radiocarbon-based absolute dating of BWMW contexts, sampled from a few sites in northern Israel. These 14C dates clearly point to the 23rd century BCE as the period when BWMW was a circulated commodity in the southern Levant. Pottery types that are commonly found together with BWMW are potential candidates for the same chronological horizon. BWMW examples found in the northern Levant have no associated absolute dates and are assigned in general to the EB IVB period. Thus, the new dates presented here are, currently, the only secure absolute dating of BWMW pottery and should be used to revisit the absolute chronology of northern Levant sites where BWMW pottery has been identified.

Assessing the long-term interactions of climate change and timber markets on forest land and carbon storage

This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the environmental and economic impacts of climate change on global and regional forests from now through 2200. By integrating the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios with climate models, a vegetation model, socio-economic scenarios, and a forest economic model, the study explores long run adjustments of both ecosystems and markets to climate change that have not been studied before. The ecological model suggests that global forest productivity increases under RCP 8.5. The overall supply of timber expands faster than demand through the 23rd century lowering timber prices and creating net benefits in the timber sector. Consumers benefit the most from the lower prices but these same low prices tend to damage forest owners, especially in the tropics. Even without a formal sequestration policy, average global forest carbon is projected to increase by 6%–8% by 2100. Under the RCP 2.6, forest carbon remains stable through 2200 but under RCP 8.5 it is simulated to increase by another 8% with a very heterogeneous distribution across world regions. Under both RCPs, global forest area is projected to increase relative to a no-climate change case until 2150, but possibly decline thereafter.

The Earth's Population Can Reach 14 Billion in the 23rd Century without Significant Adverse Effects on Survivability.

This paper presents the results obtained from the study of the sustainable state between nature and human society on a global scale, focusing on the most critical interactions between the natural and anthropogenic processes. Apart from the conventional global models, the basic tool employed herein is the newly proposed complex model entitled “nature-society system (NSS) model”, through which a reliable modeling of the processes taking place in the global climate-nature-society system (CNSS) is achieved. This universal tool is mainly based on the information technology that allows the adaptive conformance of the parametric and functional space of this model. The structure of this model includes the global biogeochemical cycles, the hydrological cycle, the demographic processes and a simple climate model. In this model, the survivability indicator is used as a criterion for the survival of humanity, which defines a trend in the dynamics of the total biomass of the biosphere, taking into account the trends of the biocomplexity dynamics of the land and hydrosphere ecosystems. It should be stressed that there are no other complex global models comparable to those of the CNSS model developed here. The potential of this global model is demonstrated through specific examples in which the classification of the terrestrial ecosystem is accomplished by separating 30 soil-plant formations for geographic pixels 4° × 5°. In addition, humanity is considered to be represented by three groups of economic development status (high, transition, developing) and the World Ocean is parameterized by three latitude zones (low, middle, high). The modelling results obtained show the dynamics of the CNSS at the beginning of the 23rd century, according to which the world population can reach the level of 14 billion without the occurrence of major negative impacts.

Changes in the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic meridional heat transport in a RCP 8.5 climate projection in MPI-ESM

Abstract. We investigate changes in the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic Ocean meridional heat transport (OHT) in a climate projection experiment with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) performed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Specifically, we compare a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP 8.5 climate change scenario, covering the simulation period from 2005 to 2300, to a historical simulation, covering the simulation period from 1850 to 2005. In RCP 8.5, the OHT declines by 30–50 % in comparison to the historical simulation in the North Atlantic by the end of the 23rd century. The decline in the OHT is accompanied by a change in the seasonal cycle of the total OHT and its components. We decompose the OHT into overturning and gyre component. For the OHT seasonal cycle, we find a northward shift of 5° and latitude-dependent shifts between 1 and 6 months that are mainly associated with changes in the meridional velocity field. We find that the changes in the OHT seasonal cycle predominantly result from changes in the wind-driven surface circulation, which projects onto the overturning component of the OHT in the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic. This leads in turn to latitude-dependent shifts between 1 and 6 months in the overturning component. In comparison to the historical simulation, in the subpolar North Atlantic, in RCP 8.5 we find a reduction of the North Atlantic Deep Water formation and changes in the gyre heat transport result in a strongly weakened seasonal cycle with a weakened amplitude by the end of the 23rd century.

Homophobia, heteronormativity, and slash fan fiction

I analyze the relationship between homophobia/heteronormativity and slash fan fiction. Through reading and coding almost 6,000 pages of Kirk/Spock fan fiction written from 1978 to 2014, I illuminate shifts in how normative gender and sexuality are portrayed by K/S authors. Writers of K/S, while ostensibly writing about the 23rd century, consciously or unconsciously include cultural norms from the 20th and 21st centuries. Thus, slash becomes a lens through which readers can view a decrease in both homophobia and heteronormativity in US culture over the past several decades.

Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions

Natural carbon sinks currently absorb approximately half of the anthropogenic CO2 emitted by fossil fuel burning, cement production and land-use change. However, this airborne fraction may change in the future depending on the emissions scenario. An important issue in developing carbon budgets to achieve climate stabilisation targets is the behaviour of natural carbon sinks, particularly under low emissions mitigation scenarios as required to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. A key requirement for low carbon pathways is to quantify the effectiveness of negative emissions technologies which will be strongly affected by carbon cycle feedbacks. Here we find that Earth system models suggest significant weakening, even potential reversal, of the ocean and land sinks under future low emission scenarios. For the RCP2.6 concentration pathway, models project land and ocean sinks to weaken to 0.8 ± 0.9 and 1.1 ± 0.3 GtC yr−1 respectively for the second half of the 21st century and to −0.4 ± 0.4 and 0.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 respectively for the second half of the 23rd century. Weakening of natural carbon sinks will hinder the effectiveness of negative emissions technologies and therefore increase their required deployment to achieve a given climate stabilisation target. We introduce a new metric, the perturbation airborne fraction, to measure and assess the effectiveness of negative emissions.

Observation-based modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity

Abstract. High-latitude soils store vast amounts of perennially frozen and therefore inert organic matter. With rising global temperatures and consequent permafrost degradation, a part of this carbon stock will become available for microbial decay and eventual release to the atmosphere. We have developed a simplified, two-dimensional multi-pool model to estimate the strength and timing of future carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes from newly thawed permafrost carbon (i.e. carbon thawed when temperatures rise above pre-industrial levels). We have especially simulated carbon release from deep deposits in Yedoma regions by describing abrupt thaw under newly formed thermokarst lakes. The computational efficiency of our model allowed us to run large, multi-centennial ensembles under various scenarios of future warming to express uncertainty inherent to simulations of the permafrost carbon feedback. Under moderate warming of the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenario, cumulated CO2 fluxes from newly thawed permafrost carbon amount to 20 to 58 petagrams of carbon (Pg-C) (68% range) by the year 2100 and reach 40 to 98 Pg-C in 2300. The much larger permafrost degradation under strong warming (RCP8.5) results in cumulated CO2 release of 42 to 141 Pg-C and 157 to 313 Pg-C (68% ranges) in the years 2100 and 2300, respectively. Our estimates only consider fluxes from newly thawed permafrost, not from soils already part of the seasonally thawed active layer under pre-industrial climate. Our simulated CH4 fluxes contribute a few percent to total permafrost carbon release yet they can cause up to 40% of total permafrost-affected radiative forcing in the 21st century (upper 68% range). We infer largest CH4 emission rates of about 50 Tg-CH4 per year around the middle of the 21st century when simulated thermokarst lake extent is at its maximum and when abrupt thaw under thermokarst lakes is taken into account. CH4 release from newly thawed carbon in wetland-affected deposits is only discernible in the 22nd and 23rd century because of the absence of abrupt thaw processes. We further show that release from organic matter stored in deep deposits of Yedoma regions crucially affects our simulated circumpolar CH4 fluxes. The additional warming through the release from newly thawed permafrost carbon proved only slightly dependent on the pathway of anthropogenic emission and amounts to about 0.03–0.14 °C (68% ranges) by end of the century. The warming increased further in the 22nd and 23rd century and was most pronounced under the RCP6.0 scenario, adding 0.16 to 0.39 °C (68% range) to simulated global mean surface air temperatures in the year 2300.

Assessing phosphate rock depletion and phosphorus recycling options

We analyze global elemental phosphorus flows in 2009 for (1) mining to products, (2) animal and human manure flows, (3) crop harvests and animal production, (4) food production, (5) soil erosion, (6) and crop uptake. Informed by the flow assessment the potential and cost of phosphorus usage reduction and recycling measures are quantified, and fed into a constructed phosphorus supply-demand model with reserve assessment to assess the impact of these measures on phosphate rock resource availability. According to our results in 2009 globally 21.4Mt elemental phosphorus from rock phosphate was consumed in products of which 17.6Mt used as fertilizers, fully able to cover erosion losses and outputs in agriculture in aggregate, but insufficient from the perspective of bio-available phosphorus in soils. We find substantial scope for phosphorus use reduction, at potentially 6.9Mt phosphorus, or 32% of 2009 phosphate rock supply. Another 6.1Mt, or 28% can technologically be recycled from waterways and wastewater, but at a cost substantially above any foreseeable phosphate rock fertilizer price. The model results suggests phosphate rock reserves are sufficient to meet demand into the 22nd century, and can be extended well into the 23rd century with assessed use reduction and recycling measures.

Implications of Arctic sea ice changes for North Atlantic deep convection and the meridional overturning circulation in CCSM4‐CMIP5 simulations

AbstractUsing CCSM4 climate simulations for 1850–2300 with four different future forcing scenarios, we show that the maximum strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) decreases proportionally to the applied CO2 forcing. This weakening of the overturning is caused by a reduction or shut down of North Atlantic (NA) deep convection due to a surface freshening. In the Labrador Sea, the surface freshening is caused by strongly increased liquid freshwater exports from the Arctic, which are largely due to the decrease in the Arctic sea ice cover. In the strongest forcing scenario (RCP8.5), the Arctic becomes summer ice‐free by the end of the 21st century and year‐round ice‐free by the end of the 23rd century. As a result of the associated freshening, all NA deep convection ceases by 2145, which leads to a 72% (18 Sv) decrease of the MOC strength by the end of the simulation in 2300.

Climate Change Projections over East Asia with BCC_CSM1.1 Climate Model under RCP Scenarios

We study climate change projections over East Asia under various representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios using simulations performed with the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 (BCC_ CSM1.1) for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Under all RCPs (including RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5), East Asian climate is found to be warmer and wetter in the 21st century than the present climatology (19862005). For 20802099, East Asian mean surface air temperature (precipitation) is higher than that for the present climatology by 0.98° C (4.4%) under RCP2.6, 1.89° C (7.7%) under RCP4.5, 2.47° C (7.1%) under RCP6.0, and 4.06° C (9.1%) under RCP8.5. Such changes in East Asia are all larger than the corresponding global changes, with greater differences under the higher RCPs. In the simulation of RCP4.5, which is extended to the late 23rd century (22802299), further warming of 0.34° C relative to 20802099 is found in East Asia; this is lower than the global mean warming (0.56° C). Under mitigation scenario RCP2.6, East Asia experiences greater cooling than that experienced globally throughout the 22nd and 23rd centuries. In the late 21st century, East Asian summer mean precipitation increases prominently (by 1015%) with respect to the present climatology under all RCPs. This increase in precipitation occurs primarily in southern China and northern East Asia and is associated with anomalous southerly flow in the lower troposphere. Drought occurs in the Yangtze River valley for the middle and high RCPs; we attribute this to anomalous subsidence around 30° N associated with the northward shift of the East Asian jet stream. Under the high scenario (RCP8.5), the western Pacific subtropical high extends westward and northward to southern China and is partly responsible for the deficient precipitation in regions to the south of the Yangtze River.

Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers

Abstract. We present estimates of sea-level change caused by the global surface mass balance of glaciers, based on the reconstruction and projection of the surface mass balance of all the individual glaciers of the world, excluding the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. The model is validated using a leave-one-glacier-out cross-validation scheme against 3997 observed surface mass balances of 255 glaciers, and against 756 geodetically observed, temporally integrated volume and surface area changes of 341 glaciers. When forced with observed monthly precipitation and temperature data, the glaciers of the world are reconstructed to have lost mass corresponding to 114 ± 5 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) between 1902 and 2009. Using projected temperature and precipitation anomalies from 15 coupled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble, they are projected to lose an additional 148 ± 35 mm SLE (scenario RCP26), 166 ± 42 mm SLE (scenario RCP45), 175 ± 40 mm SLE (scenario RCP60), or 217 ± 47 mm SLE (scenario RCP85) during the 21st century. Based on the extended RCP scenarios, glaciers are projected to approach a new equilibrium towards the end of the 23rd century, after having lost either 248 ± 66 mm SLE (scenario RCP26), 313 ± 50 mm SLE (scenario RCP45), or 424 ± 46 mm SLE (scenario RCP85). Up until approximately 2100, ensemble uncertainty within each scenario is the biggest source of uncertainty for the future glacier mass loss; after that, the difference between the scenarios takes over as the biggest source of uncertainty. Ice mass loss rates are projected to peak 2040 ∼ 2050 (RCP26), 2050 ∼ 2060 (RCP45), 2070 ∼ 2090 (RCP60), or 2070 ∼ 2100 (RCP85).

McCoy's syndrome: a new medical entity

1 The Lancet. Torture in Syria’s hospitals. Lancet 2011; 378: 1606. 2 Human Rights Watch. Syria: Red Crescent workers under attack. http://www.hrw.org/ news/2011/09/14/syria-red-crescent-workersunder-attack (accessed Nov 12, 2011). 3 Anon. Bahrain protests: trial opens for 47 doctors and nurses. BBC News Online June 6, 2011. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/worldmiddle-east-13673299 (accessed Nov 12, 2011). 4 Shah S. CIA organised fake vaccination drive to get Osama bin Laden’s family DNA. The Guardian July 11, 2011 (accessed Nov 13, 2011). 5 United Nations Offi ce of the High Commissioner for Human Rights. Individual complaints. http://www.ohchr.org/EN/Issues/ Health/Pages/IndividualComplaints.aspx (accessed Nov 13, 2011). One of us had experienced a clinical situation like this before, and Abraham Verghese speaks about a similar case in one of his talks. This set of missed diagnoses illustrates a condition that we propose to name McCoy’s syndrome. Leonard McCoy is a science fi ction character—the doctor of the starship Enterprise in the original Star Trek television series. The story takes place in the 23rd century, where he uses a “medical tricorder” with a hand-held sensor to examine patients. This apparatus lets him make precise diagnoses, without the need to interview and examine patients in the traditional way. Unfortunately, McCoy’s syndrome seems to be widespread in the health system at the moment, striking mainly doctors, but also other healthcare professionals and even patients. The most characteristic feature of the syndrome is the excessive faith in medical technology, particularly imaging. Other components that might also be present are the absence of clinical reasoning and of establishing emotional links with sick people. Some cases also show incapacity to think about common diagnostic hypotheses, particularly in university hospital environments. Medical tricorders, unfortunately, are not a reality yet. The careful physical examination of patients and history taking, although depreciated, is still the cornerstone of precise diagnostics. We cannot deny the huge value of technological advances that have been seen in the medical fi eld during recent decades. But we must use them wisely and with parsimony, and not ignore the simple, basic procedures that depend only on our own vision and sense of touch.

Conscientisation in Castalia: A Freirean Reading of Hermann Hesse’s The Glass Bead Game

This paper considers Hermann Hesse’s novel, The Glass Bead Game, in the light of Paulo Freire’s educational philosophy. The Glass Bead Game is set in Castalia, a “pedagogical province” of the 23rd century. It is argued that the central character in the book, Joseph Knecht, undergoes a complex process of conscientisation. Knecht develops an increasingly critical understanding of Castalian society, questioning some of its most cherished assumptions while nonetheless deepening his appreciation of the beauty of the Glass Bead Game. He becomes less certain of his certainties as he grows older, and eventually decides to give away his prestigious post as Magister Ludi (Master of the Glass Bead Game) to pursue a quiet life as a tutor. Dialogue plays a key role in the development of Knecht’s critical consciousness. Freirean theory is seen to provide a robust framework for the analysis of key themes in Hesse’s text. At the same time, The Glass Bead Game is helpful in demonstrating the meaning and significance of conscientisation and dialogue for educational lives.