21st Century Maritime Silk Road Research Articles

China’s Belt and Road Initiative: An Overview of Developments

China’s ambitious initiative to build infrastructure in dozens of countries along land and sea trade routes stretching from China to Africa and Europe is set to grow bigger than first envisaged in 2013. Added to the original overland Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road is the Polar Silk Road, now written into China’s Arctic Policy that was published in January 2018. The China-centric initiative also got itself written into the Chinese Communist Party’s constitution in October 2017, leading many outside China to view it as more than an economic plan to build infrastructure to facilitate trade and boost development in developing countries. Foreign observers see it also as a scheme to expand China’s influence overseas by binding other nations more closely to it economically. That there is demand for the infrastructure that the Chinese want to build is unquestionable — in Asia alone, to keep the economies humming, there is a need to invest US$1.7 trillion annually in infrastructure up till 2030. However, the security and financial risks of this venture are daunting to investors as the routes run through some of the riskiest countries in the world. The situation is not helped by suspicion over China’s intentions and concerns about the lack of transparency and whether tender processes meet international standards. China needs to listen to and allay the concerns of governments, corporations and international organizations to gain their support and participation in this project that is so massive it cannot pull off alone.

Maritime Shipping and Export Trade on “Maritime Silk Road”

The initiative of the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road will not only enhance China's international trade with countries along the road, but will also bring opportunities and challenges to China's maritime shipping industry. This article examines correlations between freight rate and the export trade on the five shipping routes of the Maritime Silk Road by the VAR model. The empirical results show that among the five routes, on the Persian Gulf route and European route, export has a significantly negative impact on freight index; however, on the Southeast Asian route and Taiwanese route freight index has a significantly negative effect on exports. Finally, some strategies were put forward on the Chinese shipping market and industry.

Spatio-temporal evolution of population and urbanization in the countries along the Belt and Road 1950–2050

This paper uses data for the period 1950–2050 compiled by the United Nations Population Division together with methods including spatial autocorrelation analysis, hierarchical cluster analysis and the standard deviational ellipse, to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of population and urbanization in the 75 countries located along the routes of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road, to identify future population growth and urbanization hotspots. The results reveal the following: First, in 2015, the majority of Belt and Road countries in Europe, South Asia and Southeast Asia had high population densities, whereas most countries in Central Asia, North Africa and West Asia, as well as Russia and Mongolia, had low population densities; the majority of countries in South Asia, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, West Asia and North Africa had rapid population growth, whereas many countries in Europe had negative population growth; and five Belt and Road countries are in the initial stage of urbanization, 44 countries are in the acceleration stage of urbanization, and 26 are in the terminal stage of urbanization. Second, in the century from 1950 to 2050, the mean center of the study area’s population is consistently located in the border region between India and China. Prior to 2000, the trajectory of the mean center was from northwest to southeast, but from 2000 it is on a southward trajectory, as the population of the study area becomes more concentrated. Future population growth hotspots are predicted to be in South Asia, West Asia and Southeast Asia, and hotspot countries for the period 2015–2030 include India, China, Pakistan and Indonesia, though China will move into negative population growth after 2030. Third, the overall urban population of Belt and Road countries increased from 22% in 1950 to 49% in 2015, and it is expected to gradually catch up with the world average, reaching 64% in 2050. The different levels of urbanization in different countries display significant spatial dependency, and in the hundred-year period under consideration, this dependency increases before eventually weakening. Fourth, between 2015 and 2030, urban population hotspots will include Thailand, China, Laos and Albania, while Kuwait, Cyprus, Qatar and Estonia will be urban “coldspots.” Fifth, there were 293 cities with populations over 1 million located along the Belt and Road in 2015, but that number is expected to increase to 377 by 2030. Of those, 43 will be in China, with many of the others located in India, Indonesia and the eastern Mediterranean.

Dynamic monitoring the infrastructure of major ports in Sri Lanka by using multi-temporal high spatial resolution remote sensing images

Colombo port and Hambantota port in Sri Lanka play a key role in transiting and supporting the shipping trade of “the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road”. In recent years, Chinese enterprises have made huge investments in the infrastructure construction of Colombo port and Hambantota port. The construction progress and development trend of Colombo port and Hambantota port have been attracting the attention of Chinese investment enterprises and the society. In this paper, multi-temporal high spatial resolution remote sensing images are used to monitor the infrastructure construction condition of Colombo port and Hambantota port from 2010 to 2017. According to the interpreted infrastructure information of the two ports, the international container terminal of Colombo and Hambantota port have completed their constructions. By the end of 2017, the international container terminal of Colombo built the container yards with 28.8 ha and roads with 32.6 ha. At the south of the international container terminal of Colombo, the 62.2 ha of reclamation area were built for the planned port city. In Hambantota port, 77 ha of container yards, 48 ha of roads and 2.9 ha of oil storage areas were constructed during this period. Meanwhile, the analysis of potential storage capacity of Colombo port and Hambantota port shows that the throughput of Colombo port may increase by 3 million tons per year while the throughput of Hambantota port will be over its designed 2.5 million tons per year. These analysis results are able to provide a useful reference for Chinese investment enterprises and the related research of “the Belt and Road”.

Analysis of Dynamic Characteristics of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road

The 21st century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) proposed by China strongly promotes the maritime industry. In this paper, we use wind and ocean wave datasets from 1979 to 2014 to analyze the spatial and temporal distributions of the wind speed, significant wave height (SWH), mean wave direction (MWD), and mean wave period (MWP) in the MSR. The analysis results indicate that the Luzon Strait and Gulf of Aden have the most obvious seasonal variations and that the central Indian Ocean is relatively stable. We analyzed the distributions of the maximum wind speed and SWH in the MSR over this 36-year period. The results show that the distribution of the monthly average frequency for SWH exceeds 4 m (huge waves) and that of the corresponding wind speed exceeds 13.9 m s−1 (high wind speed). The occurrence frequencies of huge waves and high winds in regions east of the Gulf of Aden are as high as 56% and 80%, respectively. We also assessed the wave and wind energies in different seasons. Based on our analyses, we propose a risk factor (RF) for determining navigation safety levels, based on the wind speed and SWH. We determine the spatial and temporal RF distributions for different seasons and analyze the corresponding impact on four major sea routes. Finally, we determine the spatial distribution of tropical cyclones from 2000 to 2015 and analyze the corresponding impact on the four sea routes. The analysis of the dynamic characteristics of the MSR provides references for ship navigation as well as ocean engineering.

Analysis on the Characteristics of Aquatic Products Trade between China and ASEAN based on the HS Classification

In the favorable background of the "21st century Maritime Silk Road", the aquatic products trade between China and ASEAN is facing a historic opportunity. In order to make guidance of transformation for the aquaculture enterprises, this article thoroughly analyzes the scale, market structure and product structure, as well as the intra-industry status of China's aquatic products export to ASEAN countries. The result indicates the aquatic products trade between China and ASEAN keeps on increasing and is inconsistent with the trends of the ASEAN's demand. However, China's export of processed aquatic product to ASEAN fluctuates and trends to downward and meets a bilateral inter-industry trade status.

A Study on the Spread of Chaozhou Opera in Thailand under the Strategy of Maritime Silk Road

Chaozhou Opera, selected in the first batch of national intangible cultural heritage protection list, is an ancient Chinese opera. It has been spread overseas with Chaozhou people and has become one of the most influential local opera in China, also homesickness sustenance for many overseas Chinese people. In 2013, the General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed the strategy on the construction of the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road”, which has clearly pointed out to strengthen the cultural communication and cooperation in the “Maritime Silk Road” regions. Thailand is an important country on the Silk Road. Therefore, this article takes the development of Chaozhou Opera in Thailand as the research object, analyzes the present situation of Chaozhou Opera in Thailand, points out its bottleneck and puts forward the development strategy.

China as a future normative power: A Chinese Cultural perspective

This paper discusses Western and Chinese views on China’s growth to highlight the differences in perspectives regarding the outlook of China’s future. An overview of the features of a normative power and an examination of the challenges China faces when she interacts with its neighbors will elicit traces of its potential normative style in the region. We will then conclude that China is in a dilemma in exhibiting its normative power, and it seeks to reconcile the situation through managing sovereignty issues with its neighbors in a consistent way and proposing initiatives such as the AIIB and the 21st Century Maritime Silkroad to help portray itself as a responsible and accepted normative strength.

The contribution of China’s bilateral trade to global carbon emissions in the context of globalization

Controlling and reducing carbon emissions for mitigation of climate change are a global common consensus. It is imperative for legitimately and effectively ascertaining responsibilities among countries to study CO2 emissions embodied in the international trade. As the largest exporter and the second largest importer in the world, the large amount of CO2 emissions embodied in China’s bilateral trade have a significant impact on China’s and global carbon emissions. Based on the single region input-output tables using the non-competitive imports assumption, this study estimated CO2 emissions embodied in China’s bilateral trade with 219 countries/regions over the period of 2000–2014, and analyzed the contribution of China’s bilateral trade to global carbon emissions under the assumption of non-trade scenario. The results show that, CO2 emissions embodied in China’s exports and imports in 2014 were 2561.1 Mt and 1209.9 Mt respectively, and CO2 emissions embodied in exports were higher than those in imports throughout the period. It is indicated that China had produced a large amount of CO2 emissions for other countries through the international trade. And meanwhile, China avoided a large amount of CO2 emissions with the rapid growth of imports. And furthermore, the net CO2 emissions embodied in China’s bilateral trade had been declining since 2011. At last, China’s bilateral trade had extremely little impact on global carbon emissions. It is concluded that there is a possibility of reducing global carbon emissions based on the results of China’s bilateral trade with countries along the routes of Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road.

Study of the Competitiveness of Quanzhou Port on the Belt and Road in China Based on a Fuzzy-AHP and ELECTRE III Model

With the establishment of the Belt and Road national strategy, Quanzhou Port is a significant development opportunity. Quanzhou Port is the origin of the 21st century Maritime Silk Road and part of the Belt and Road, but as a pioneer project of the Maritime Silk Road and the main port in the Belt and Road strategy, its development has encountered some challenges and problems. Hence, this paper aims to evaluate the competitiveness of Quanzhou Port based on the criteria selected by experts and corresponding improvement suggestions are put forward for its weaknesses. Using fuzzy-AHP and ELECTRE III, port competitiveness is evaluated according to the total weights obtained based on the different criteria used. The key criteria consist of six factors (port size, port location, hinterland economy, port costs, operations management and growth potential) that are divided into 18 sub-criteria. Five competing ports were selected with respect to geographical proximity. The order of ranking according to ELECTRE III are as follows: Kaohsiung Port, Xiamen Port, Fuzhou Port, Taichug Port and Quanzhou Port. The findings show that the port of Quanzhou appears last in the ordering sequence, resulting in a need for integrative approaches to promote its competitiveness. Compared with competitive ports, Quanzhou Port has relatively weak overall infrastructure and relatively high port costs, which leads to a lack of obvious flow of port materials and a decrease in professional unloading services. Particularly in hinterland port economies, the industrial structure is extensive and backward. Hence, the question of how to achieve a green transformation of the manufacturing industry will be important for Quanzhou Port. This paper points out directions for the future development of Quanzhou Port and applies comprehensive evaluation methods, namely fuzzy-AHP and ELECTRE III.

Economic Activity of Chinese Living in Countries along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road

Economic Activity of Chinese Living in Countries along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road

Exploring spatiotemporal patterns of electric power consumption in countries along the Belt and Road

Fully understanding spatiotemporal patterns of electric power consumption (EPC) is one of the key questions related to sustainable socioeconomic and environmental development in countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road (hereinafter referred to as the Belt and Road countries). However, studies about spatiotemporal patterns of EPC in the Belt and Road countries are still scarce due to the lack of reliable data. This study attempted to investigate spatiotemporal patterns of EPC in the Belt and Road countries from multiple perspectives. Firstly, the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program’s Operational Linescan System (DMSP-OLS) nighttime stable light data were used to estimate EPC from 1992 to 2013. Subsequently, the mathematical statistic method, standard deviational ellipse, rank size rule, and correlation analysis were employed to evaluate the EPC change in detail. The results reveal that the EPC growth mainly occurs in the developing countries, especially in China. The geographical distribution of EPC in the Belt and Road countries is oriented in the Northwest-Southeast direction between 1992 and 2013. Based on the rank size rule analysis, the slope values of q are −2.392 and −2.175 between 1992 and 2013, with an average R2 value of 0.664, indicating a clear clustering pattern of EPC. It is also proved that GDP is a more important impact factor to EPC than the population. Our findings can offer an effective way to understand spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of EPC in the Belt and Road countries, and provide references for regional socioeconomic development and cooperation.

Cultural Heritage on China’s 21st-century Maritime Silk Road

This article suggests that Chinese scholars in Guangdong, through historical work endorsed or sponsored by their government, justify the inclusion of Southeast Asian nations in the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) initiative. In doing so, they seek to add the MSR to the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization’s (UNESCO) World Heritage List. By exploring how historians and officials adhere to the expectations of the Chinese state and UNESCO in highlighting Guangdong’s role in the 21st-century MSR initiative, the article examines the production of cultural heritage at the local level in contemporary China.

EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATES ON MONEY AND EXPORTS OF MARITIME SILK ROAD NATIONS

ABSTRACT This paper explores the effect of China's exchange rate fluctuations on changes in money stock and exports of nine Asian and two African economies along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road and a major trade partner, U.S. A simple DSGE representation is envisaged to include two rational expectations components and an inflation targeting mechanism. Initial GMM calibration set for simulations is obtained from panel data 1990 to 2015. The Judd-Gaspar test result indicates the model is accurate. Findings indicate the same set of optimal parameter estimates is applicable for India, Singapore, Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Kenya, Tanzania and China. Indonesia and the U.S. have their own sets of estimates. Appreciation in China's exchange rate tends to expand variations in Indonesia's first differenced exports with significant magnitude, but reduces variations in exports of Vietnam, Malaysia, and Kenya by a minor magnitude. Keywords China's exchange Rate, Asian Economies, 21th Century Maritime Silk Road.

The ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road Initiative’ and naval diplomacy in China

The ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road Initiative’ indicates China's intention to create a peaceful and harmonious environment, for cooperating with other States. Naval craft, together with their inherent advantages and special legal status under international law, can have their tradition adapted by the government, for diplomatic purposes. Naval diplomacy, which is generally conducted by appropriate naval craft, could be employed to promote, the ‘Maritime Silk Road Initiative’. This paper focuses on a definition of naval diplomacy and draws attention to China's naval diplomatic practice. The discussion also extends to consider the challenges under current international status, including uncertain maritime zone delimitation and divarication of explanation regarding UNCLOS. This paper concludes by suggesting that it is necessary to formulate detailed rules of law for naval operations in peacetime, strengthen the utility of UNCLOS in regular training and enhance political mutual trust, for meaningful security cooperation.

The Silk Road agenda of the Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX) program

The Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road (B&R) aims at facilitating the twenty-first Century economic development of China. However, climate change, air quality and related feedbacks are affecting the successful development of the environment and societies in the B&R geographical domain. The most urgent risks related to the atmospheric system, to the land system and to hydrospheric and cryospheric processes are changing climate – air quality interactions, air pollution, changing monsoon dynamics, land degradation, and the melting of Tibetan Plateau glaciers. A framework is needed in which a science and technology-based approach has the critical mass and expertise to identify the main steps toward solutions and is capable to implement this roadmap. The Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX) program, initiated in 2012, aims to resolve science, technology and sustainability questions in the Northern Eurasian region. PEEX is now identifying its science agenda for the B&R region. One fundamental element of the PEEX research agenda is the availability of comprehensive ground-based observations together with Earth observation data. PEEX complements the recently launched international scientific program called Digital Belt and Road (DBAR). PEEX has expertise to coordinate the ground-based observations and initiate new flagship stations, while DBAR provides a big data platform on Earth observation from China and countries along the Belt and Road region. The DBAR and PEEX have joint interests and synergy expertise on monitoring on ecological environment, urbanization, cultural heritages, coastal zones, and arctic cold regions supporting the sustainable development of the Belt and Road region. In this paper we identify the research themes of the PEEX related Silk Road agenda relevant to China and give an overview of the methodological requirements and present the infrastructure requirements needed to carry out large scale research program.

Measuring the benefits of the development strategy of the “21st century maritime silk road” via an intervention analysis approach: Evidence from China and neighbouring countries in Southeast Asia

The present study adopts a new political intervention analysis approach to evaluate the impact of the ?21st Century Maritime Silk Road? (MSR) policy. The basic concept is to investigate dependence amongst cross-sectional units to construct counterfactuals without intervention. Thus, the effect of policy intervention is simply the difference between the outcomes with and without intervention. The panel data of 14 countries along MSR are used to illustrate the methodology. Real data analysis shows that the MSR policy exerts a positive effect on the trade of China and Southeast Asian countries. Furthermore, policy implications are provided based on the analysis.

A comparative study of regional strategies of Northeast Asian countries

After the global financial crisis in 2008, the US and Europe have experienced anemic economic growth, whereas Northeast Asia has become the most economically dynamic region worldwide. The region faced such challenges as rapid economic globalization and regional economic integration, in-depth adjustment of global economic and trade patterns, the Obama administration’s “Asian Pivot” strategy, and domestic economic transformations. To address these challenges, Northeast Asian countries put forward development plans and regional strategies: Japan’s “Abenomics” since 2012; China’s “Silk Road Economic Belt” and “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” since 2013; South Korea’s “Eurasian Initiative” proposed by President Park Geun-hye in 2013; Mongolia’s “Prairie Road” Plan since 2014; “Eurasian Economic Union” led by Russia since 2015; the TPP revived by Japan as CPTPP after the US withdrawal; and the “New North” policy proposed by South Korea’s newly-elected president Moon Jae-in in 2017. These projects reflect the countries’ determination to play a more active role in the bilateral and multilateral cooperation in the region. The regional strategies are shaped by each country’s specific economic conditions, geopolitical and diplomatic needs. Although these strategies are somewhat competitive in such aspects as resources and influence, they also offer more prospects for cooperation and integration of regional economies.

Kenya and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road: Implications for China-Africa Relations

China remains Africa’s largest financier of infrastructure, and the Belt and Road Forum held in May 2017 estimated pledge of funds of about US$40 billion. Reportedly, projects worth much more than the pledged funds are in the planning or have been underway, making the “Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)” the biggest development initiative in history. China and Africa need each other in development, and the Asian giant continues to make inroads into Africa, home to minerals, oil, and other resources that help feed China’s phenomenal economic growth. This article intends to discuss the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road (MSR)” under the BRI and its socioeconomic and cultural impact on China-Africa relations, with an emphasis on China’s relationship with Kenya, a founding member of the East Africa community (EAC) that has enjoyed lasting friendship with China. It is concluded that despite the generally positive impact of Chinese economic presence in Africa over the past decades, both China and African countries have much to do to consolidate their mutually beneficial relationship and to achieve the MSR’s target of common prosperity in the long run.

ИНВЕСТИЦИОННЫЕ СВЯЗИ КИТАЯ СО СТРАНАМИ АФРИКИ

This article is devoted to investigation of China’s investment activity in Africa. The authors pay attention to the formation history of China’s investment strategy in the African market, and highlight three stages: 1) from 1950 to 1980, 2) from 1980 to 2010, and 3) from 2010 to the present. A distinctive feature of the current China’s investment strategy in Africa is medium and small companies’ entering into the African market. The main areas of Chinese investment are: mining, construction of infrastructure facilities, industrial production and financial services. Chinese financial institutions are interested in further financing of infrastructure projects because this contributes to the achievement of goals within the framework of the Chinese national economic strategy. Beijing needs to balance its export flows to Africa as well. Africa is also an important strategic location for the deployment of the Chinese navy to protect trade routes and transport hubs implemented within the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. The Port of Djibouti is an example of that strategy. It allows experts to talk about China’s economic and geopolitical expansion through the Belt and Road Initiative. The security issues of the investment and economic policy toward Africa are considered by Beijing as a necessity to protect its investments. In the medium and long-term perspective, the growth trend of Chinese investment, carried out by Chinese private sector, including small and medium-sized companies, will continue. The volume of investments in such areas as industry, transport and telecommunications will grow. The article also looks at the problems of China’s investment activity and the criticism that Beijing faces from African governments. The institutionalization of China’s trade and investment policy in the African direction, which includes the use of potential of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, China- Africa Development Fund and African Projects Support Fund, is one of important focuses of the article.