1σ Uncertainty Research Articles

A Comprehensive Analysis of Air‐Sea CO2 Flux Uncertainties Constructed From Surface Ocean Data Products

AbstractIncreasing anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the atmosphere are partially sequestered into the global oceans through the air‐sea exchange of CO2 and its subsequent movement to depth, commonly referred to as the global ocean carbon sink. Quantifying this ocean carbon sink provides a key component for closing the global carbon budget, which is used to inform and guide policy decisions. These estimates are typically accompanied by an uncertainty budget built by selecting what are perceived as critical uncertainty components based on selective experimentation. However, there is a growing realization that these budgets are incomplete and may be underestimated, which limits their power as a constraint within global budgets. In this study, we present a methodology for quantifying spatially and temporally varying uncertainties in the air‐sea CO2 flux calculations for the fCO2‐product based assessments that allows an exhaustive assessment of all known sources of uncertainties, including decorrelation length scales between gridded measurements, and the approach follows standard uncertainty propagation methodologies. The resulting standard uncertainties are higher than previously suggested budgets, but the component contributions are largely consistent with previous work. The uncertainties presented in this study identify how the significance and importance of key components change in space and time. For an exemplar method (the UExP‐FNN‐U method), the work identifies that we can currently estimate the annual ocean carbon sink to a precision of ±0.70 Pg C yr−1 (1σ uncertainty). Because this method has been built on established uncertainty propagation and approaches, it appears that applicable to all fCO2‐product assessments of the ocean carbon sink.

Evolution of eruption rate between two caldera-forming eruptions in the Jemez Mountains volcanic field, New Mexico, USA

Rhyolites that erupted between the Otowi and Tshirege members of the Bandelier Tuff, known as the Valle Toledo Member, were investigated in the Jemez Mountains volcanic field to infer changes in eruptive rate and flux between two caldera-forming eruptions. Our analysis combines high-precision 40Ar/39Ar single-crystal laser-fusion dating of sanidine, matrix glass compositions and mineralogy of pumice, depositional textures, and volumetric estimates of erupted rhyolites to present a revised Valle Toledo Member eruptive chronology that integrates our observations with those of previous studies. With the improved temporal resolution of our high-precision eruption ages (median 2σ uncertainty of ±2.9 ka), the updated Valle Toledo Member eruption chronology consists of at least 42 temporally or mineralogically distinct eruptions that we group into four periods of time based on eruption rate. Within the first 8.1 ± 5.1 kyr (~1605–1597 ka) that followed the Otowi caldera-forming eruption at 1605.4 ± 2.3 ka, six eruptions are recognized. This suggests an average recurrence interval on the order of 1.4 ± 0.9 kyr. Twenty-seven eruptions occurred during the next 194.4 ± 5.1 kyr (from ~1597–1403 ka) and the average recurrence interval increased to 7.2 ± 0.2 kyr. Following this second period of slower eruption rate, a previously unrecognized eruption hiatus of up to 162.4 ± 3.1 kyr occurred from 1402.9 ± 2.3 ka to 1240.5 ± 2.1 ka. Resumption of volcanic activity is characterized by a series of at least nine volcanic eruptions during the next 8.6 ± 2.5 kyr, culminating in the eruption of the 400 km3 Tshirege Member of the Bandelier Tuff and formation of Valles caldera at 1231.9 ± 1.3 ka. This last phase of pre-caldera activity has the shortest observed average recurrence interval (1.0 ± 0.3 kyr) and greatest eruptive flux (≥ 0.4 ± 0.2 km3/kyr) that occurred between the two caldera-forming eruptions. We interpret the shifts in eruption rate and flux following the 162.4 ± 3.1 kyr eruption hiatus, in addition to mineralogical changes present in post-hiatus rhyolites, as indicators that the Bandelier system was trending towards another major eruption. The magmatic system may have grown gradually throughout the ca. 162 kyr period of volcanic repose; however, the heightened eruption rate in the ca. 10 kyr before caldera collapse is consistent with relatively rapid growth of the magmatic system before the Tshirege event as previously proposed by other studies. Furthermore, the new dataset is consistent with prior geochronology studies of the region that show the four largest explosive eruptions in the Jemez field were all proceeded by very slow eruptive rates or hiatuses. This demonstrates that sequences of heightened volcanic activity can initiate on rapid geological timescales from states of volcanic quiescence in the Bandelier system.

G321.3–3.9: A new supernova remnant observed with multi-band radio data and in the SRG/eROSITA All-Sky Surveys

Aims. G321.3–3.9 was first identified as a partial shell at radio frequencies a few decades ago. Although it continued to be observed, no additional studies were undertaken until recently. Methods. In this paper, we present results from a large selection of radio and X-ray data that cover the position of G321.3–3.9. We confirmed G321.3–3.9 as a new supernova remnant (SNR) using data collected by several radio surveys, spanning a frequency range from 200 to 2300 MHz. Stacked eROSITA data from four consecutive all-sky surveys (eRASS:4) provide spectro-imaging information in the energy band 0.2–8.0 keV. Results. G321.3–3.9 has an elliptical shape with major and minor axes of approximately 1.°7 × 1.°1. From CHIPASS and S-PASS data, we calculate a spectral index α = −0.8 ± 0.2, consistent with synchrotron emission from an expanding shell in the radiative phase. The eROSITA data show an X-ray diffuse structure filling almost the entire radio shell. Based on our spectral analysis, we found the temperature to be approximately 0.6 keV and the column absorption density about 1021 cm−2. Comparing this absorption density to optical extinction maps, we estimated the distance to fall within the range of (1.0–1.7) kpc, considering the 1σ uncertainty range.

Evidence for Surprising Heavy Nitrogen Isotopic Enrichment in Comet 46P/Wirtanen’s Hydrogen Cyanide

46P/Wirtanen is a Jupiter-family comet, probably originating from the solar system’s Kuiper Belt, that now resides on a 5.4 yr elliptical orbit. During its 2018 apparition, comet 46P passed unusually close to the Earth (within 0.08 au), presenting an outstanding opportunity for close-up observations of its inner coma. Here we present observations of HCN, H13CN, and HC15N emission from 46P using the Atacama Compact Array. The data were analyzed using the SUBLIME non-LTE radiative transfer code to derive 12C/13C and 14N/15N ratios. The HCN/H13CN ratio is found to be consistent with a lack of significant 13C fractionation, whereas the HCN/HC15N ratio of 68 ± 27 (using our most conservative 1σ uncertainties), indicates a strong enhancement in 15N compared with the solar and terrestrial values. The observed 14N/15N ratio is also significantly lower than the values of ∼140 found in previous comets, implying a strong 15N enrichment in 46P’s HCN. This indicates that the nitrogen in Jupiter-family comets could reach larger isotopic enrichments than previously thought, with implications for the diversity of 14N/15N ratios imprinted into icy bodies at the birth of the solar system.

The Black Hole Mass and Photometric Components of NGC 4826

We present infrared photometry and Hubble Space Telescope imaging and spectroscopy of the Sab galaxy NGC 4826. Schwarzschild dynamical modeling is used to measure its central black hole mass M. Photometric decomposition is used to enable a comparison of M to published scaling relations between black hole masses and properties of host bulges. This decomposition implies that NGC 4826 contains classical and pseudobulges of approximately equal mass. The classical bulge has best-fit Sérsic index n = 3.27. The pseudobulge is made up of three parts, an inner lens (n = 0.18 at r ≲ 4″), an outer lens (n = 0.17 at r ≲ 45″), and a n = 0.58 Sérsic component required to match the surface brightness between the lens components. The total V-band luminosity of the galaxy is M VT = −21.07, the ratio of classical bulge to total light is B/T ≃ 0.12, and the ratio of pseudobulge to total light is PB/T ≃ 0.13. The outer disk is exponential (n = 1.07) and makes up D/T = 0.75 of the light of the galaxy. Our best-fit Schwarzschild model has a black hole mass with 1σ uncertainties of M=8.4−0.6+1.7×106M⊙ and a stellar population with a K-band mass-to-light ratio of ϒK=0.46±0.03M⊙L⊙−1 at the assumed distance of 7.27 Mpc. Our modeling is marginally consistent with M = 0 at the 3σ limit. These best-fit parameters were calculated assuming the black hole is located where the velocity dispersion is largest; this is offset from the maximum surface brightness, probably because of dust absorption. The black hole mass—one of the smallest measured by modeling stellar dynamics—satisfies the well known correlations of M with the K-band luminosity, stellar mass, and velocity dispersion of the classical bulge only. In contrast, the black hole is undermassive with respect to the correlation of M with total (classical plus pseudo) bulge luminosity. Thus the composite (classical bulge plus pseudobulge) galaxy NGC 4826 is consistent with previous results on black hole scaling relations and helps to strengthen these results at low black hole masses.

Ultraslow cooling of an ultrahot orogen

To constrain the rate of cooling of lower-crustal rocks from an ultrahot orogen, we determined both the age and equilibration temperature of metamorphic zircon from six widely spaced samples of metasedimentary garnet−sillimanite gneiss from the Eastern Ghats Province in eastern India. For the combined data set of metamorphic zircon, concordant dates decrease continuously within 2σ uncertainty from around 950 Ma to 800 Ma, consistent with ∼150 m.y. of zircon crystallization. Ti-in-zircon temperatures for each dated spot during this period decrease with age, corresponding to linear cooling rates ranging from 0.26 to 0.90 °C/m.y. We propose that retention of heat-producing elements in the lower crust of the Eastern Ghats Province and a low net erosion rate were responsible for ∼150 m.y. of ultraslow cooling.

Redshifts of candidate host galaxies of four fast X-ray transients using VLT/MUSE

Context. Fast X-ray transients (FXTs) are X-ray flares that last from minutes to hours. Multi-wavelength counterparts to these FXTs have proven hard to find. As a result, distance measurements are made through indirect methods such as a host galaxy identification. Of the three main models proposed for FXTs, that is, supernova shock breakout emission (SN SBO), binary neutron star (BNS) mergers, and tidal dirsuption events (TDEs) of an intermediate-mass black hole (IMBH) disrupting a white dwarf (WD), the SN SBO predicts a much lower maximum peak X-ray luminosity (LX, peak). If the distance to FXTs were to be obtained, it would be a powerful probe for investigating the nature of these FXTs. Aims. We aim to obtain distance measurements to four FXTs by identifying candidate host galaxies. Through a redshift measurement of the candidate host galaxies, we derive LX, peak and the projected offset between the candidate host galaxy and the FXT. Methods. We obtained Very Large Telescope (VLT)/Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer (MUSE) observations of a sample of FXTs. We report the redshift of between 13 and 22 galaxies per FXT. We used these redshifts to calculate the distance, LX, peak and the projected offsets between the FXT position and the position of the sources. Additionally, we computed the chance alignment probabilities for these sources with the FXT postitions. Results. We find LX, peak > 1044 erg s−1 when we assume that any of the sources with a redshift measurement is the true host galaxy of the corresponding FXT. For XRT 100831, we find a very faint galaxy (mR, AB = 26.5 ± 0.3, z ∼ 1.22, LX, peak ∼ 8 × 1045 erg s−1 if the FXT is at this distance) within the 1σ uncertainty region with a chance alignment probability of 0.04. For XRT 060207, we find a candidate host galaxy at z = 0.939 with a low chance alignment probability within the 1σ uncertainty region. However, we also report the detection of a late-type star within the 3σ uncertainty region with a similar chance alignment probability. For the remaining FXTs (XRT 030511 and XRT 070618), we find no sources within their 3σ uncertainty regions. The projected offsets between the galaxies and the FXT positions is > 33 kpc at 1σ uncertainty. Therefore, if one of these candidate host galaxies turns out to be the true host galaxy, it would imply that the FXT progenitor originated from a system that received a significant kick velocity at formation. Conclusions. We rule out an SN SBO nature for all FXTs based on LX, peak and the projected offsets between the FXT position and the sources, assuming any of the candidate host galaxies with a redshift determination is the true host galaxy to the FXT. For XRT 100831, we conclude that the detected galaxy within the 1σ uncertainty position is likely to be the host galaxy of this FXT based on the chance alignment probability. From the available information, we are not able to determine whether XRT 060207 originated from the galaxy found within 1σ of the FXT position or was due to a flare from the late-type star detected within the 3σ uncertainty region. Based on LX, peak and the offsets within our sample, we are not able to distinguish between the BNS merger and the IMBD-WD TDE progenitor model. However, for the candidate host galaxies with an offset ≳30 kpc, we can conclude that the IMBH-WD TDE is unlikely due to the large offset.

The K s -band Luminosity Function of the Rich Cluster VC04 in the Vela Supercluster

To learn more about the properties of the Vela Supercluster (VSCL), located behind the Milky Way at cz ∼ 18,000 km s−1, we determine the K s -band luminosity function (LF) of VC04, the richest known galaxy cluster in the VSCL, and two other VSCL clusters (VC02 and VC08). The galaxy sample is based on NIR observations that are complete to an extinction-corrected absolute magnitude of MKso<−21.ͫ5 (∼2.ͫ5 below MK* ), within the clustercentric radius of r c < 1.5 Mpc (∼70% of the Abell radius). For VC04, we obtained 90 new spectroscopic redshifts of galaxies, observed with the 11 m Southern African Large Telescope. We found the Schechter parameters of the VC04 LF to be M* = −24.ͫ41 ± 0.44, α = −1.10 ± 0.20, and ϕ* = 8.84 ± 0.20. Both the redshift data and the LF confirm VC04 to be a rich but not yet fully relaxed cluster. We independently determined the LF of VC04 on membership defined by the red-sequence method and demonstrated that this method can be used in the absence of high spectroscopic coverage over a cluster. This allowed us to determine the LFs of VC02 and VC08. We also derived the LFs of the Coma, Norma, and Virgo clusters to similar depth and extent as the VSCL clusters. We found that the Schechter parameters of VC04 are within 1σ uncertainties of these local clusters, as well as VC02 and VC08. We do not find significant differences between the LFs in the different cluster environments probed in this work down to MK*+2.ͫ5 .

Re-evaluating Marine Isotope Stage 5a paleo-sea-level trends from across the Florida Keys reef tract

Unraveling how Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) fluctuated during past warm periods can improve our understanding of linkages between sea-level fluctuations, orbital forcing, and ice-sheet dynamics. Current estimates of GMSL for Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 5a and 5c — two warm intervals following the relatively well-documented MIS 5e — contain meters of uncertainty and fewer data due to several challenges. These challenges include concealment of datable in-situ coral facies by MIS 1 deposits and inaccessibility due to submergence by modern sea level. We present a comprehensive dataset based on U–Th dating and stratigraphic correlation of 23 cores totaling over 170 m of recovered coral-reef deposits across the tectonically stable Florida Keys Reef Tract (FKRT). Following detailed facies descriptions, 34 in-situ, minimally altered aragonitic coral samples (≤2.7% calcite) below the Holocene-Pleistocene boundary were targeted for U–Th geochronology. Fourteen closed-system coral U–Th ages from MIS 5a include the commonly used sea-level indicator Acropora palmata, but also the massive coral taxa Pseudodiploria strigosa, Siderastrea siderea, Orbicella spp., and Porites astreoides. Dating yielded ages in the range of 88–81 ka (average 2σ uncertainty of less than 200 years). These ages suggest MIS 5a reef initiation at ∼88 ka BP, a peak near 83 ka with minimum elevations between −6.0 ± 0.5 and −5.6 ± 0.5 m MSL (2σ uncertainty and subsidence-corrected), and reef termination and sea-level fall by ∼81 ka BP. Notably, the range of peak MIS 5a relative sea-level estimates of −6.5 to −5.1 m MSL are more than 2 m shallower (higher) than previous estimates of −11 to −9 m. Our higher resolution regional sea-level reconstruction across four subregions of the Florida Keys reef tract aligns with changes in July insolation at 65° N: a trend that most other records, such as deep-sea sediments, do not have the accuracy and precision to resolve. Three massive coral samples from MIS 5c, consisting of Pseudodiploria clivosa, and Orbicella spp., yielded ages in the range of 104 to 99 ka (average 2σ uncertainty less than 200 years); however, because only one sample met the closed-system criteria, our ability to estimate MIS 5c sea level is relatively limited. More empirical estimates of sea-level from the MIS 5a and MIS 5c intervals based on numerical dating of reliable local sea-level constraints are critical for GMSL calculations and relating changes in sea-level amplitude and timing to global ice volume modeling and glacio-isostatic effects, all of which can improve predictions of future sea-level changes in coastal regions.

Apatite Fission-Track Dating: A Comparative Study of Ages Obtained by the Automated Counting LA-ICP-MS and External Detector Methodologies

Abstract Laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) in combination with developments in digital microscopy, image analysis, and computer software has allowed the implementation of an automated counting approach for the apatite fission-track (AFT) analysis. We refer to this approach as the “automated counting-LA-ICP-MS” (ACLA) method. Two major components comprise the ACLA method: (i) the digital counting of spontaneous tracks performed on high-resolution images captured from apatite grains and (ii) the measurement of 238U content in apatite by LA-ICP-MS. This study includes ACLA analyses from Fish Canyon Tuff (FCT) and Durango apatite standard crystals. Furthermore, a comparative age study between the ACLA and conventional external detector method (EDM) strategies was performed on a set of thirteen granitoid samples from northwestern Mexico and four granitic samples from the eastern Dharwar craton (EDC), India. ACLA analyses on FCT yielded an AFT age of 28.1 ± 0.6 (1σ) and 28.8 ± 1.1 (1σ) Ma for Durango apatite, whereas reported EDM ages are 27.5 ± 0.5 and 31.4 ± 0.5 Ma, respectively. Calculated AFT ages using the ACLA method from northwestern Mexico samples range from 11.1 ± 1.1 to 42.0 ± 3.6 Ma (EDM ages range from 10.0 ± 0.8 to 54.0 ± 3.0 Ma), whereas AFT ages from the EDC samples range from 147 ± 3.1 to 220.5 ± 12.5 Ma (EDM ages range from 120.9 ± 4.5 to 197.1 ± 19.4 Ma). Based on a statistical comparison with ages previously determined by the conventional EDM on the same samples and considering their 2σ uncertainties, these ages are in good agreement.

Action and energy clustering of stellar streams in deforming Milky Way dark matter haloes

ABSTRACT We investigate the non-adiabatic effect of time-dependent deformations in the Milky Way (MW) halo potential on stellar streams. Specifically, we consider the MW’s response to the infall of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) and how this impacts our ability to recover the spherically averaged MW mass profile from observation using stream actions. Previously, action clustering methods have only been applied to static or adiabatic MW systems to constrain the properties of the host system. We use a time-evolving MW–LMC simulation described by basis function expansions. We find that for streams with realistic observational uncertainties on shorter orbital periods and without close encounters with the LMC, e.g. GD-1, the radial action distribution is sufficiently clustered to locally recover the spherical MW mass profile across the stream radial range within a $2\sigma$ confidence interval determined using a Fisher information approach. For streams with longer orbital periods and close encounters with the LMC, e.g. Orphan–Chenab (OC), the radial action distribution disperses as the MW halo has deformed non-adiabatically. Hence, for OC streams generated in potentials that include an MW halo with any deformations, action clustering methods will fail to recover the spherical mass profile within a $2\sigma$ uncertainty. Finally, we investigate whether the clustering of stream energies can provide similar constraints. Surprisingly, we find for OC-like streams, the recovered spherically averaged mass profiles demonstrate less sensitivity to the time-dependent deformations in the potential.

Constraining z ≲ 2 ultraviolet emission with the upcoming ULTRASAT satellite

Context. The extragalactic background light (EBL) carries a huge astrophysical and cosmological content. Its frequency spectrum and redshift evolution are determined by the integrated emission of unresolved sources, with these being galaxies, active galactic nuclei, or more exotic components. The near-UV region of the EBL spectrum is currently not well constrained, yet a significant improvement can be expected thanks to the soon-to-be launched Ultraviolet Transient Astronomy Satellite (ULTRASAT). Intended to study transient events in the 2300–2900 Å observed band, this detector will provide wide field maps tracing the UV intensity fluctuations at the largest scales. Aims. In this paper, we suggest how to exploit the ULTRASAT full-sky map as well as its low-cadence survey in order to reconstruct the redshift evolution of the UV-EBL volume emissivity. We build upon the work of Chiang et al. (2019, ApJ, 870, 120), who used the clustering-based redshift (CBR) technique to study diffuse light maps from GALEX. Their results showed the capability of the cross correlation between GALEX and SDSS spectroscopic catalogs in constraining UV emissivity, highlighting how CBR is sensitive only to extragalactic emissions, avoiding foregrounds and Galactic contributions. Methods. In our analysis, we introduce a framework to forecast the CBR constraining power when applied to ULTRASAT and GALEX in cross correlation with the five-year DESI spectroscopic survey. Results. We show that these will yield a strong improvement in the measurement of the UV-EBL volume emissivity. For λ = 1500 Å non-ionizing continuum below z ∼ 2, we forecast a 1σ uncertainty ≲26% (9%) with conservative (optimistic) bias priors using the ULTRASAT full-sky map. Similar constraints can be obtained from its low-cadence survey, which will provide a smaller but deeper map. Finally, we discuss how these results will foster our understanding of UV-EBL models.

Systematically Revisiting All NuSTAR Spins of Black Holes in X-Ray Binaries

We extend our recent work on black hole spin in X-ray binary systems to include an analysis of 189 archival NuSTAR observations from 24 sources. Using self-consistent data reduction pipelines, spectral models, and statistical techniques, we report an unprecedented and uniform sample of 36 stellar-mass black hole spin measurements based on relativistic reflection. This treatment suggests that prior reports of low spins in a small number of sources were generally erroneous: our comprehensive treatment finds that those sources tend to harbor black holes with high spin values. Overall, within 1σ uncertainty, ∼86% of the sample are consistent with a ≥ 0.95, ∼94% of the sample are consistent with a ≥ 0.9, and 100% are consistent with a ≥ 0.7 (the theoretical maximum for neutron stars; a = cJ/GM 2). We also find that the high-mass X-ray binaries (those with A-, B-, or O-type companions) are consistent with a ≥ 0.9 within the 1σ errors; this is in agreement with the low-mass X-ray binary population and may be especially important for comparisons to black holes discovered in gravitational wave events. In some cases, different spectra from the same source yield similar spin measurements but conflicting values for the inclination of the inner disk; we suggest that this is due to variable disk winds obscuring the blue wing of the relativistic Fe K emission line. We discuss the implications of our measurements, the unique view of systematic uncertainties enabled by our treatment, and future efforts to characterize black hole spins with new missions.

The SPICE Project: Calibrated production rates of cosmogenic 3He and 21Ne in olivine and pyroxene from the 72 ka SP basalt flow, Arizona, USA

The formally named SP lava flow is a quartz-, olivine- and pyroxene-bearing basalt flow that is preserved in the desert climate of northern Arizona, USA. The flow has an 40Ar/39Ar age of 72 ± 4 ka (2σ) and has undergone negligible erosion and/or burial, making its surface an ideal site for direct calibration of cosmogenic nuclide production rates. Production rates for cosmogenic 3He (3Hec) and 21Ne (21Nec) have been determined from SP flow olivine and pyroxene in this study. The error-weighted mean, sea-level, high latitude (SLHL) total reference production rates of 3He in olivine and pyroxene have identical values of 135 ± 8 at/g/yr (2σx‾; standard error) using time-independent Lal (1991)/Stone (2000) (St) scaling factors. These production rates decrease to identical values of 130 ± 8 at/g/yr (2σx‾; standard error) when 3He measurements are standardized to the CRONUS-P pyroxene standard. The St-scaled, error-weighted mean, total reference production rates of 21Ne in olivine and pyroxene are 48.4 ± 2.9 at/g/yr and 26.5 ± 1.7 at/g/yr (2σx‾; standard error), respectively, increasing to 49.3 ± 3.0 at/g/yr and 27.0 ± 1.7 at/g/yr (2σx‾; standard error), respectively, when standardized to the CREU-1 quartz standard. 3He and 21Ne production rates (St) overlap within 2σ uncertainty with other St-scaled production rates in the literature. SLHL 3He and 21Ne production rates in SP flow olivine and pyroxene are nominally lower if time-dependentLm and Sa scaling factors are used. Olivine and pyroxene both have identical, error-weighted mean SLHL production rates of 127 ± 8 at/g/yr (2σx‾; standard error) using Lm scaling factors and CRONUS-P standardized 3He measurements. These production rates decrease to identical values of 110 ± 7 at/g/yr (2σx‾; standard error) for olivine and pyroxene when using Sa scaling factors. The Lm-scaled, error-weighted mean, total reference production rates of 21Ne in olivine and pyroxene are 48.1 ± 2.8 at/g/yr and 26.4 ± 1.7 at/g/yr (2σx‾; standard error), respectively, when standardized to the CREU-1 quartz standard. The error weighted mean, local 21Ne/3He production rate ratio in olivine is 0.358 ± 0.009 (2σx‾; standard error), which increases to 0.378 ± 0.012 when using CREU-1 standardized 21Ne production rates and CRONUS-P standardized 3He production rates. The error weighted mean, local 21Ne/3He production rate ratio in pyroxene is 0.197 ± 0.006, or 0.208 ± 0.008 when 21Ne and 3He are standardized to CREU-1 and CRONUS-P, respectively. The updated, CREU-1 standardized 21Nec rate (St) in SPICE quartz is 16.5 ± 1.1 at/g/yr. Production of 21Ne in coexisting SPICE olivine (ol), pyroxene (px), and quartz (qz) (standardized to CREU-1; Fenton et al., 2019; this study) yields error-weighted mean, local production rate ratios of 3.00 ± 0.13 (2σx‾) and 1.64 ± 0.08 (2σx‾) for 21Neol/21Neqz and 21Nepx/21Neqz, respectively. This study suggests that production rates of 3He and 21Ne in SPICE olivine and pyroxene agree well with St- and Lm-scaled global mean production rates in the literature. It also indicates that CRONUS-P and CREU-1 standardizations yield production rates in even stronger agreement with these global mean rates.

The Geometric Correction Method for zircon (U–Th) ∕ He chronology: correcting systematic error and assigning uncertainties to alpha-ejection corrections and eU concentrations

Abstract. The conventional zircon (U–Th) / He (ZHe) method typically uses microscopy measurements of the dated grain together with the assumption that the zircon can be appropriately modeled as a geometrically perfect tetragonal or ellipsoidal prism in the calculation of volume (V), alpha-ejection correction (FT), equivalent spherical radius (RFT), effective uranium concentration (eU), and corrected (U–Th) / He date. Here, we develop a set of corrections for systematic error and determine uncertainties to be used in the calculation of the above parameters for zircon, using the same methodology as Zeigler et al. (2023) for apatite. Our approach involved acquiring both “2D” microscopy measurements and high-resolution “3D” nano-computed tomography (CT) data for a suite of 223 zircon grains from nine samples showcasing a wide range of morphology, size, age, and lithological source, calculating the V, FT, and RFT values for the 2D and 3D measurements and comparing the 2D vs. 3D results. We find that the values derived from the 2D microscopy data overestimate the true 3D V, FT, and RFT values for zircon, with one exception (V of ellipsoidal grains). Correction factors for this misestimation determined by regressing the 3D vs. 2D data range from 0.81–1.04 for V, 0.97–1.0 for FT, and 0.92–0.98 for RFT, depending on zircon geometry. Uncertainties (1σ) derived from the scatter of data around the regression line are 13 %–21 % for V, 5 %–1 % for FT, and 8 % for RFT, again depending on zircon morphologies. Like for apatite, the main control on the magnitude of the corrections and uncertainties is grain geometry, with grain size being a secondary control on FT uncertainty. Propagating these uncertainties into a real dataset (N=28 ZHe analyses) generates 1σ uncertainties of 12 %–21 % in eU and 3 %–7 % in the corrected ZHe date when both analytical and geometric uncertainties are included. Accounting for the geometric corrections and uncertainties is important for appropriately reporting, plotting, and interpreting ZHe data. For both zircon and apatite, the Geometric Correction Method is a practical and straightforward approach for calculating more accurate (U–Th) / He data and for including geometric uncertainty in eU and date uncertainties.

Toward mapping turbulence in the intra-cluster medium

Context. Future X-ray observatories with high spectral resolution and imaging capabilities will enable measurements and mappings of emission line shifts in the intracluster medium (ICM). Such direct measurements can serve as unique probes of turbulent motions in the ICM. Determining the level and scales of turbulence will improve our understanding of the galaxy cluster dynamical evolution and assembly, together with a more precise evaluation of the non thermal support pressure budget. This will allow for more accurate constraints to be placed on the masses of galaxy clusters, among other potential benefits. Aims. In this view, we implemented the methods presented in the previous instalments of our work to characterising the turbulence in the intra-cluster medium in a feasibility study with the X-ray Integral Field Unit (X-IFU) on board the future European X-ray observatory, Athena. Methods. From idealized mock observations of a toy model cluster, we reconstructed the second-order structure function built with the observed velocity field to constrain the turbulence. We carefully accounted for the various sources of errors to derive the most realistic and comprehensive error budget within the limits of our approach. With prior assumptions on the dissipation scale and power spectrum slope, we constrained the parameters of the turbulent power spectrum model through the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. Results. With a very long exposure time, a favourable configuration, and a prior assumption of the dissipation scale, we were able to retrieve the injection scale, velocity dispersion, and power spectrum slope, with 1σ uncertainties for better than ∼15% of the input values. We demonstrated the efficiency of our carefully set framework to constrain the turbulence in the ICM from high-resolution X-ray spectroscopic observations, paving the way for more in-depth investigation of the optimal required observing strategy within a more restrictive observational setup with the future Athena/X-IFU instrument.

Evaluating reference materials and common-Pb corrections for high-resolution apatite U[sbnd]Pb geochronology

We report isotope dilution thermal ionization mass spectrometry (ID-TIMS) and laser ablation split stream inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LASS) UPb data for a suite of widely available reference apatites: Fish Canyon Tuff, Mount Dromedary, TEMORA 2, and Duluth Complex anorthosite. We apply different common-Pb correction strategies to the UPb data sets: (1) anchoring to a Stacey and Kramers (1975) model Pb composition; (2) unanchored 2-D 238U/206Pb-207Pb/206Pb isochron regressions; and (3) unanchored 3-D 238U/206Pb-207Pb/206Pb-204Pb/206Pb isochron regressions. The different common-Pb corrections yield consistent dates within each ID-TIMS and LASS data set, with 3-D regression method producing the highest precision isochrons. FCT apatite produces an ID-TIMS 3-D isochron age of 28.8 ± 3.7 Ma with (207Pb/206Pb)i = 0.851 ± 0.021. Mount Dromedary apatite yields an ID-TIMS 3-D isochron age of 98.4 ± 0.5 Ma with (207Pb/206Pb)i = 0.839 ± 0.003. TEMORA 2 apatite has an ID-TIMS 3-D isochron age of 402 ± 7 Ma and (207Pb/206Pb)i = 0.839 ± 0.008. Duluth Complex anorthosite apatite yields an ID-TIMS 3-D isochron age of 1077 ± 9 Ma with (207Pb/206Pb)i = 0.849 ± 0.046. The MSWDs associated with isochrons calculated from both the ID-TIMS and LASS data sets are larger than expected for a single age population, revealing complexities that are otherwise not captured by 2-D isochron methods. In the case of FCT apatite, the ID-TIMS data indicate significant heterogeneity in the initial Pb ratio ((207Pb/206Pb)i = 0.845–0.856), invalidating this sample as a viable reference apatite for high-precision geochronology. Additionally, the common-Pb compositions of TEMORA 2 and Duluth Complex anorthosite apatites calculated using the ID-TIMS data deviate from bulk Earth Pb evolution models beyond 2σ uncertainty. The data emphasize the utility of unanchored age regressions in generating the highest fidelity apatite UPb dates. Further, TEMORA 2 and Duluth Complex apatite ages are both younger than their corresponding zircon UPb ages, highlighting the need to independently verify the ages of prospective reference apatites.

Post-new-horizons Orbits and Masses for the Satellites of Pluto

We report on ephemerides for the satellites of Pluto based on the large set of astrometric measurements. Our orbit fit yielded the following masses with 1σ uncertainties: GM Pluto = 869.3 ± 0.4 km3 s−2, GM Charon = 106.1 ± 0.3 km3 s−2, GM Nix = 1.50 ± 0.52 × 10−3 km3 s−2, GM Hydra = 2.01 ± 0.27 × 10−3 km3 s−2, corresponding to the densities of ρ Pluto = 1.853 ± 0.004 g cm−3, ρ Charon = 1.705 ± 0.006 g cm−3, ρ Nix = 0.88 ± 0.31 g cm−3, and ρ Hydra = 1.21 ± 0.19 g cm−3. Masses of Kerberos and Styx remain unconstrained, and it is unlikely that we will be able to measure them even if we obtain abundant 1 mas precision astrometry during the next 20 yr. We summarize the results of orbit integration in terms of osculating and precessing ellipse model mean elements. All satellites reside in near-circular orbits, and Kerberos and Styx have 0.4 deg and 0.3 deg inclinations with respect to Charon’s orbit plane. The nodal regression periods for Kerberos and Hydra are ∼9 and ∼14 yr respectively. We found that Charon’s orbit pole can be approximated as: R.A. = 133.0073 + 0.0036T deg, and decl. = –6.2449 + 2.5 × 10−5 T deg, where T is Julian centuries from the epoch J2000, based on 5000 yr of orbit integration.

The complex continental margin of NE Oman: Fault-gouge dating of the Wadi Kabir Fault at the northern margin of the Saih Hatat window, Sultanate of Oman, and its wider implications

The complex structural geometry along the northern continental margin of Oman formed during polyphase deformation from the mid-Cretaceous to the Miocene. We focus on the kinematics and tectonics of the Wadi Kabir Fault, which represents an eastern segment of the large-scale, composite Frontal Range fault system that forms the northern boundary of the central Al Hajar Mountains. The most exhumed rocks outcrop in the Saih Hatat window of the Al Hajar Mountains, which occurs in the footwall of the Wadi Kabir Fault. To better understand the tectonic history of the Wadi Kabir Fault, we report three K-Ar illite fault-gouge ages. Sample FG16-1 from a shallowly north-dipping gouge zone of the eastern segment of the Wadi Kabir Fault yielded two consistent ages that overlap within 2σ uncertainties at ∼90 Ma. Sample FG16-2 from the central segment of the fault yielded a K–Ar age of 57.9 ± 2.0 Ma (2σ uncertainties), which is interpreted as a late Paleocene faulting event as it perfectly matches the cooling history of the high-pressure rocks of the Saih Hatat window in the footwall of the Wadi Kabir Fault. We present two tectonic interpretations for the ∼90 Ma fault-gouge age and prefer a synchronous kinematic relationship with the parallel and contractional mid-Cretaceous Yenkit Shear Zone that was active at the distal Arabian Platform since 114 Ma. Because the 57.9 ± 2.0 Ma age is associated with pronounced footwall cooling, we interpret this age to be related to the formation of the Bandar Jissah Basin in the hanging wall of the Wadi Kabir Fault. We conclude that the Frontal Range fault system likely formed during the Paleocene and that its young (≤∼43 Ma) history was accommodated along the western segment of the fault, as there is no evidence of this Eocene fault interval at the Wadi Kabir Fault.

Simultaneous U–Pb and U–Th Dating Using LA-ICP-MS for Young (&lt;0.4 Ma) Minerals: A Reappraisal of the Double Dating Approach

Simultaneous U–Pb and U–Th dating using laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) was performed on the ca. 0.1 Ma Toya tephra and the ca. 0.08 Ma SS14-28 U–Th zircon reference material. In U–Pb dating, both Th/U and Pa/U partitioning between magma and minerals were considered. In U–Th dating, both abundance sensitivity and molecular interferences on 230Th were reevaluated. As a result, the Toya tephra yielded an accurate weighted mean U–Pb age of 0.103 ± 0.029 Ma (2σ) using zircon and monazite. Conversely, the SS14-28 zircon yielded an inaccurate U–Pb age (0.25 ± 0.10 Ma), which was attributed to low 206Pb signal intensity. Both the Toya tephra zircon and the SS14-28 zircon yielded accurate U–Th model ages of 0.108 ± 0.014 Ma and 0.078 ± 0.007 Ma, respectively. The agreement of U–Pb and U–Th ages for Toya indicates that simultaneous U–Pb and U–Th dating is possible and viable. The inappropriate age of SS14-28 U–Pb age and appropriate U–Th model age also indicates it is preferable to apply both U–Pb and U–Th dating simultaneously for young (&lt;0.4 Ma) zircons to check internal consistency. The proposed double dating approach may be especially useful for small grains when it otherwise would be impossible to obtain multiple ages from a single grain. By adopting simultaneous U–Pb and U–Th dating using LA-ICP-MS, zircon crystallization ages as old as 4.5 Ga to as young as 0.1 Ma (or even younger) can be obtained in a quick and cost-effective manner with a reasonable (~5% at 1σ) uncertainty.