10-year Stroke Risk Research Articles

Symptomatic patients without coronary artery disease do not have excess cardiovascular risk compared to the general population

Abstract Background Patients with stable angina with no coronary atherosclerosis by coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) have a lower cardiovascular risk compared to CCTA patients with greater atherosclerotic burden. However, it remains unknown whether these symptomatic patients have excess cardiovascular risk when compared to the general population and if any excess risk is sex or age dependent. Purpose To examine the 10-year cardiovascular risk and mortality in patients with no coronary atherosclerosis by CCTA compared to a matched general population comparison cohort. Methods We included every symptomatic CCTA patient with no coronary artery disease (CAD), defined as no coronary plaques and Agatston calcium score of 0, in Western Denmark from 2008-2021. Each patient was matched by age and sex with 5 individuals with no previous history of ischemic heart disease from the Western Danish general population. Maximum follow-up was 10 years. Outcomes were myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, and all-cause death. We estimated 10-year risk difference (RD) and incidence rate ratios (IRR) using a conditional Poisson regression, comparing patients with no CAD to the general population cohort. Additionally, we performed age- (<45 year, 45-65 years, and ≥65 years) and sex stratified analyses. Results We included 39,223 patients with no CAD who were matched with 196,115 individuals from the general population. Median age was 54 and 60% were women. Baseline use of anti-thrombotic agents, statins, and anti-hypertensive drugs was higher in patients with no CAD than the general population. Median follow-up was 6.1 years. CCTA patients with no CAD had lower risk of myocardial infarction [RD -0.2%, IRR 0.75 (95% CI 0.65-0.85)] and death [RD -3.3%, IRR 0.51 (95% CI 0.48-0.55)], but similar risk of ischemic stroke [RD 0.0%, IRR 0.93 (95% CI 0.84-1.02)] compared to the general population (Figure 1). However, patients <45 years had higher 10-year risk of both myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke despite absence of CAD by CCTA compared the general population (Figure 2). Conclusions Symptomatic patients without CAD by CCTA do not have excess cardiovascular risk when compared to a general population cohort without known ischemic heart disease. Future cardiovascular risk management of these patients should therefore follow primary prevention guidelines. However, patients <45 years did exhibit higher risk of ischemic outcomes and may require intensified preventative treatment.Figure 1Figure 2

Education level and the incidence of heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, and stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation

Abstract Background Education level is an important socioeconomic factor affecting the incidence, symptoms, and treatment of atrial fibrillation (AF). Despite this, data on the association between education level and the incidence of major AF consequences – heart failure (HF), acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and stroke – are limited. Aim To investigate the association between education level and the risk of HF, AMI, and stroke in patients hospitalized with AF. Methods This retrospective cohort study is based on data generated by crosslinking of several Swedish national registries. All patients hospitalized between 1998 and 2003 with a diagnosis of AF were included. The relative risk for incident HF, AMI, and stroke were assessed according to education level categories during a 5–year follow–up. Education levels were categorised as primary, secondary, and academic. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression models adjusted for age, sex, time of AF diagnosis, and the variables of Charlson´s Comorbidity Index were used to estimate the relative risk of the examined outcomes. Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used as estimate of associations and statistical significance level was 5%. Results The study included 263,172 patients (56.2% male; mean age 72.5±10.4 years). There was a statistically significant dose-dependent association between education level and the risk of AMI and HF in both sexes. Compared to primary education, the HR for AMI was 0.89 (95% CI: 0.85-0.93) for secondary education and 0.71 (95% CI: 0.65-0.78) for academic education in women; and 0.91 (95% CI: 0.87-0.94) for secondary education and 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71-0.80) for academic education in men. The relative risk for HF was similar, with HRs of 0.96 (95% CI: 0.93-1.00) for secondary and 0.82 (95% CI: 0.77-0.87) for academic education in women, and HRs of 0.93 (95% CI: 0.90-0.96) for secondary and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.72-0.80) for academic education in men. Patients with academic education had a significantly lower risk for stroke compared to those with primary education (HR 0.77 (95% CI: 0.71-0.84) in women; HR 0.84 (95% CI: 0.79-0.90) in men), while patients with secondary education did not have a significantly different relative risk for stroke compared to those with primary education. Conclusion Secondary and academic education levels were associated with a significantly lower risk of HF and AMI in both women and men with AF compared to primary education. Furthermore, academic education was associated with a lower risk of stroke. In conclusion, , higher education levels were associated with a lower 5-year risk of HF, AMI, and stroke compared to primary education

Disease progression, transient ischemic attack, and de novo parenchymal lesions in asymptomatic moyamoya disease: results of a 5-year interim analysis of the AMORE study

OBJECTIVE Recently, the authors have reported the 5-year risk of stroke in patients with asymptomatic moyamoya disease (MMD). In this report, the aim was to clarify patients’ 5-year risk of disease progression, transient ischemic attack (TIA), and de novo parenchymal lesions and to identify their predictors. METHODS This multicenter, prospective cohort study (Asymptomatic Moyamoya Registry [AMORE]) in Japan is still ongoing. Participants were enrolled if they were 20–70 years of age, had bilateral or unilateral MMD, experienced no episodes suggestive of TIA and stroke, were functionally independent (modified Rankin Scale score of 0 or 1), and had been followed up for 10 years. Clinical and radiological data were obtained at enrollment and annually thereafter for 5 years. In this 5-year interim analysis, the authors defined disease progression, TIA, and de novo parenchymal lesions as the secondary endpoints. The predictors for these events were identified, using a stratification analysis method. RESULTS A total of 103 patients were enrolled and prospectively followed up for 5 years. On annual MRA examinations, disease progression occurred in 39 hemispheres in 26 patients. The incidence of disease progression was 5.9% per patient-year, and the predictors included younger age (OR 5.72, 95% CI 1.28–25.56; p = 0.0223) and hypercholesterolemia (OR 5.41, 95% CI 1.37–21.28; p = 0.0158). TIA occurred in 12 hemispheres in 10 patients, for an incidence of 2.3% per patient-year. The disease progression prior to TIA was a significant predictor for TIA (OR 5.00, 95% CI 1.31–19.0; p = 0.0184). De novo microbleeds were found in 11 hemispheres in 10 patients (2.3% per patient-year). The presence of microbleeds at enrollment was a significant predictor for de novo microbleeds (OR 5.53, 95% CI 1.17–26.13; p = 0.0309). CONCLUSIONS Patients with asymptomatic MMD may carry a significant risk of disease progression, TIA, and de novo microbleeds during the first 5 years after initial diagnosis. Practitioners should very carefully follow up with them to improve their outcome, using MRI and MRA at regular intervals. Clinical trial registration no.: UMIN000006640 (https://www.umin.ac.jp).

Impact of metabolic bariatric surgery on outcomes and the 10-year risk of major adverse cardiovascular events during a 7-year period: a retrospective cohort study.

Metabolic bariatric surgery offers enduring weight reduction and alleviation of obesity-related comorbidities, including dyslipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Long-term data on one-anastomosis gastric bypass (OAGB) and single-anastomosis duodenal-jejunal bypass with sleeve gastrectomy (SADJB-SG) is lacking, necessitating this investigation. In this multicenter prospectively-collected retrospective observational study, 830 adult Taiwanese patients (682 OAGB, 148 SADJB-SG) who underwent surgery from 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2017, were initially identified. Following protocol, 224 patients (177 OAGB, 47 SADJB-SG) with complete follow-up data at various intervals up to 3 years after surgery were included in the final analysis. The study's primary focus is to evaluate the long-term safety, efficacy, and durability of OAGB and SADJB-SG in promoting weight loss and diabetes remission. Additionally, changes in 10-year and lifetime risks of MACE before and 3-year after surgery are assessed using Taiwan MACE risk prediction model and the China-PAR project model. SADJB-SG patients exhibit higher diabetes prevalence, lower BMI, and more severe diabetes compared to OAGB. Both groups demonstrate significant improvements in BMI, diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia three years after surgery, with the most substantial improvements occurring in the second year. The Taiwan MACE risk model reveals a significant reduction in 10-year MACE and stroke risks for both groups. The China-PAR project model indicates a synchronized reduction in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease 10-year and lifetime risk in both OAGB and SADJB-SG groups. OAGB and SADJB-SG exhibit sustained improvements in weight reduction and obesity-related comorbidities over 3 years after surgery. Notably, both procedures contribute to a substantial reduction in 10-year MACE, stroke, and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risks. These findings underscore the efficacy of OAGB and SADJB-SG in the context of metabolic bariatric surgery.

Performance of CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED in predicting stroke and bleeding in atrial fibrillation and cancer.

To compare the predictive performance of CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients with and without cancer. Using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink in England, we performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with new diagnoses of AF from 2009 to 2019. Cancer was defined as history of breast, prostate, colorectal, lung, or haematological cancer. We calculated the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores for the 1-year risk of stroke and major bleeding events. Scores performance was estimated by discrimination [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)] and calibration plots. Of 141 796 patients with AF, 10.3% had cancer. The CHA2DS2-VASc score had good to modest discrimination in prostate cancer AUC = 0.74 (95% confidence interval: 0.71, 0.77), haematological cancer AUC = 0.71 (0.66, 0.76), colorectal cancer AUC = 0.70 (0.66, 0.75), breast cancer AUC = 0.70 (0.66, 0.74), and lung cancer AUC = 0.69 (0.60, 0.79), compared with no-cancer AUC = 0.73 (0.72, 0.74). HAS-BLED discrimination was poor in prostate cancer AUC = 0.58 (0.55, 0.61), haematological cancer AUC = 0.59 (0.55, 0.64), colorectal cancer AUC = 0.57 (0.53, 0.61), breast cancer AUC = 0.56 (0.52, 0.61), and lung cancer AUC = 0.59 (0.51, 0.67), compared with no-cancer AUC = 0.61 (0.60, 0.62). Both the CHA2DS2-VASc score and HAS-BLED score were well calibrated across all study cohorts. Amongst certain cancer cohorts in the AF population, CHA2DS2-VASc performs similarly in predicting stroke to AF patients without cancer. Our findings highlight the importance of cancer diagnosis during the development of risk scores and opportunities to optimize the HAS-BLED risk score to better serve cancer patients with AF.

Effect of Gamification, Financial Incentives, or Both to Increase Physical Activity Among Patients at High Risk of Cardiovascular Events: The BE ACTIVE Randomized Controlled Trial.

Physical activity is associated with a lower risk of major adverse cardiovascular events, but few individuals achieve guideline-recommended levels of physical activity. Strategies informed by behavioral economics increase physical activity, but their longer-term effectiveness is uncertain. We sought to determine the effect of behaviorally designed gamification, loss-framed financial incentives, or their combination on physical activity compared with attention control over 12-month intervention and 6-month postintervention follow-up periods. Between May 2019 and January 2024, participants with clinical atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease or a 10-year risk of myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death of ≥7.5% by the Pooled Cohort equation were enrolled in a pragmatic randomized clinical trial. Participants received a wearable device to track daily steps, established a baseline, selected a step goal increase, and were randomly assigned to control (n=151), behaviorally designed gamification (n=304), loss-framed financial incentives (n=302), or gamification+financial incentives (n=305). The primary outcome of the trial was the change in mean daily steps from baseline through the 12-month intervention period. A total of 1062 patients (mean±SD age, 67±8; 61% female; 31% non-White) were enrolled. Compared with control subjects, participants had significantly greater increases in mean daily steps from baseline during the 12-month intervention in the gamification arm (adjusted difference, 538.0 [95% CI, 186.2-889.9]; P=0.0027), financial incentives arm (adjusted difference, 491.8 [95% CI, 139.6-844.1]; P=0.0062), and gamification+financial incentives arm (adjusted difference, 868.0 [95% CI, 516.3-1219.7]; P<0.0001). During the 6-month follow-up, physical activity remained significantly greater in the gamification+financial incentives arm than in the control arm (adjusted difference, 576.2 [95% CI, 198.5-954]; P=0.0028), but it was not significantly greater in the gamification (adjusted difference, 459.8 [95% CI, 82.0-837.6]; P=0.0171) or financial incentives (adjusted difference, 327.9 [95% CI, -50.2 to 706]; P=0.09) arms after adjustment for multiple comparisons. Behaviorally designed gamification, loss-framed financial incentives, and the combination of both increased physical activity compared with control over a 12-month intervention period, with the largest effect in gamification+financial incentives. These interventions could be a useful component of strategies to reduce cardiovascular risk in high-risk patients. URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov; Unique Identifier: NCT03911141.

Left Atrial Appendage Occlusion versus Direct Oral Anticoagulants in the Prevention of Ischaemic Stroke in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation

Introduction: Existing randomised controlled trials assessing the safety and efficacy of left atrial appendage occlusion (LAAO) in atrial fibrillation (AF) were of relatively small sample size or included patients who could receive oral anticoagulant treatment after device implantation. We compared the outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed AF who received percutaneous LAAO or direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) treatment, in a large population from a global federated health network (TriNetX). Methods: Patients with AF treated with percutaneous LAAO were matched with those treated with DOAC between December 1, 2010, and October 1, 2018. Outcomes were all-cause mortality, ischaemic stroke, and intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) at 5 years. Results: We included 200 patients with AF, who received either LAAO or DOAC. The risk of all-cause mortality, ischaemic stroke, and ICH at 5 years was not significantly different between the two groups (risk ratio [RR] for all-cause mortality: 1.52, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.97–2.38, RR for ischaemic stroke: 1.09, 95% CI: 0.51–2.36, and RR for ICH: 1.0, 95% CI: 0.44–2.30). Conclusion: Patients newly diagnosed with AF, eligible for DOAC, showed similar 5-year risk of death, ischaemic stroke, and ICH when comparing those who underwent percutaneous LAAO to those receiving DOAC. Future randomised controlled trials are needed to confirm the findings and advise changes in guidelines.

Left Atrial Expansion Index for Ischemic Stroke Prediction in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation.

The efficacy of the left atrial (LA) expansion index (LAEI) to predict cerebral ischemic events in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is unknown. We enrolled 177 patients with AF (88 with paroxysmal AF and 89 with persistent AF) and a baseline CHA2DS2-VASc score (at enrollment) of 3.6 ± 2.3. Comprehensive echocardiography was performed at enrollment. The LAEI was calculated as (Volmax - Volmin) × 100%/Volmin, where Volmax and Volmin denoted maximal and minimal LA volumes, respectively. The study endpoint was ischemic stroke. Stroke subtypes were classified into cardioembolic stroke (CE), non-CE with determined mechanism (NCE), embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS), or transient ischemic attack (TIA). Over a mean 9.9-year follow-up period, 44 (24.9%) of the patients reached the endpoint (24 with CE, 4 with NCE, 6 with ESUS, and 10 with TIA). The LAEI was lower in the stroke group than in the non-stroke group. Stroke incidence in the lowest LAEI quartile was much higher than that in the other LAEI quartiles; the 10-year cumulative stroke risk was 15.9% (14/88) and 33.7% (30/89) in the patients with paroxysmal and persistent AF, respectively. An LAEI of < 35% predicted the presence of stroke with 77% sensitivity and 78% specificity. In multivariable analysis, the LAEI was independently associated with ischemic stroke (hazard ratio 0.952 per 1% increase, 95% confidence interval 0.932-0.971, p < 0.0001). The LAEI is a useful predictor of ischemic stroke in patients with AF.

Stroke Riskometer App as an educational campaign in outpatient clinics and its association with knowledge of stroke Warning Signs

BACKGROUND: Stroke is highly prevalent worldwide; however, the associated symptoms and risk factors are commonly unknown among the general population. No study has been carried out in the Mexican population about the risk of stroke and knowledge of warning signs. AIM: Describe the knowledge of early signs of stroke and their association with the risk of cerebral infarction at 5 and 10 years using the American Stroke Association validated application "Stroke Riskometer." METHODS: Observational, descriptive, cross-sectional study including adult outpatients from the Neurology department at "Dr. José Eleuterio González" University Hospital. Anthropometric measurements and vital signs were taken, and the "Stroke Riskometer" was used to calculate the stroke risk at 5 and 10 years. Early signs of stroke were assessed, with emphasis on the acronym "CAMALEON", a mnemonic that includes the three main early signs of Stroke in Spanish. Descriptive statistics were performed. For inferential statistics, Chi-Square test for categorical variables, Mann-Whitney U and Kruskal-Wallis for numerical variables, Spearman correlation for numerical and ordinal variables were conducted, considering significance at p&lt;0.05, using SPSSv25 for statistical analysis. RESULTS: Total of 200 individuals were included; 142 (71%) were women; with an average age of 54.72 (±14.63) years. The most prevalent stroke risk factors were sedentary lifestyle (54%), high blood pressure (41%), and diabetes mellitus (32%). 72.5% were unaware of any early signs of stroke, 10.5% knew 1 sign, 6% knew 2 signs, and 11% knew 3 signs. "Facial Weakness" was the most recognized sign (19.5%), followed by "Arm Weakness" (16%) and "Speech Disturbance" (15.5%). A weak correlation was found between knowledge of early signs and 5 or 10-year risk (r=0.14, p=0.048; r=0.138, p=0.051, respectively). There is a significant difference between knowledge of early signs and educational level (p=0.004), with higher knowledge in higher education. A difference was observed between male and female genders and 5 and 10-year risk (Median 5.3 vs 3.6, p=0.007 and Median 11 vs 5.4, p=&lt;0.001, respectively). Additionally, a significant difference was found between current occupation and 5 and 10-year stroke risk (p=&lt;0.001). Post-hoc analysis and percentage risk analysis found significant differences between students and other occupations. There is an increase in stroke risk as an individual's life decade advances. CONCLUSION: Awareness of stroke warning signs is low, remaining an unfinished goal despite educational campaigns in Mexico. A national, massive, and ongoing campaign for the population is necessary.

Long-term stroke risk in Moyamoya disease.

Moyamoya disease (MMD) is considered a progressive disease with an ongoing risk of recurrent stroke. However, there is a lack of long-term observational data to quantify the extent of the stroke risk. This study aimed to provide insight into the long-term stroke risk in MMD and explore possible risk factors for stroke. Records from all patients diagnosed with MMD in 13 clinical departments from 6 different Danish hospitals between 1994 and 2017 were retrospectively reviewed until 2021. The cohort comprised 50 patients (33 females and 17 males). Patients were followed up for a median of 9.4 years, with more than 10 years of follow-up for 24 patients. Ten patients had 11 new stroke events-6 ischemic strokes and 5 brain hemorrhages. Events occurred at a median of 7 years and up to 25 years after diagnosis. The overall Kaplan-Meier 5-year stroke risk was 10%. Patients with bypass performed had significantly fewer events than conservatively treated patients (HR 0.25, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.07-0.91, p < 0.05). All but one event occurred in females, a difference that reached statistical significance. The study provides data on the extent of the risk of recurrent stroke in MMD. Bypass surgery patients had fewer stroke events than those treated conservatively. There was a trend toward a higher stroke risk in females. The data supporting this study's findings are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

Stroke, mortality, and major bleeding among patients with atrial fibrillation and chronic kidney disease; insights from a contemporary large-scale population study

Abstract Introduction Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and atrial fibrillation (AF) frequently coexist, sharing a complex interplay. Although both conditions are prothrombotic, the prognostic role of CKD in AF remains uncertain, and anticoagulation effect on clinical outcomes is unclear. Methods A historical population-based study based on the "Clalit" health organization computerized database, including patients &amp;gt;21 years first diagnosed with AF between January 1st, 2010, and January 1st, 2020. The study population was stratified according to the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at baseline to: No or mild CKD (eGFR≥60mL/min/1.73m2), moderate-CKD (eGFR above 30 and below 60 mL/min/1.73m2) and advanced-CKD (eGFR≤30 mL/min/1.73m2). Multivariable Cox-regression analyses were performed to evaluate the association between CKD stages and the 5-year risk of death, stroke, intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), and gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB). The association of anticoagulation treatments and possible interaction with CKD with the risk for the study outcomes were also examined. Results We identified 87,804 patients with incident AF. Of them, 3.2% had advanced CKD, and 25% had moderate CKD. 39,421 patients (45%) received anticoagulation. In multivariable models, moderate and advanced CKD were associated with increased risk for death in an incremental manner (moderate CKD: adjusted-hazard ratio (aHR) 1.17; 95% CI 1.14-1.20, p&amp;lt;0.001) (advanced CKD: aHR 1.85; 95% CI 1.76 -1.96; p&amp;lt;0.001). Both moderate CKD (aHR 1.1; 95% CI 1.00-1.20, p&amp;lt;0.05) and advanced CKD (aHR 1.37; 95% CI 1.13-1.67; p=0.001) were associated with increased risk of stroke. Renal function was not associated with increased risk for ICH, yet it was associated with increased risk of GIB. DOAC therapy reduced the risk of stroke (aHR 0.7; 95% CI 0.57-0.86, p=0.001) and death (aHR 0.83; 95% CI 0.77-0.78, p&amp;lt;0.001) while warfarin treatment did not. The association of anticoagulation treatment with reduced risk for stroke was consistent across CKD strata (p-for-interaction=0.19). Conclusions In this contemporary registry of AF patients, worse CKD was incrementally and independently associated with an increased risk of death, stroke and gastrointestinal bleeding among patients with AF. DOAC therapy was associated with a reduced risk for stroke and death without evident increase in ICH or GI bleeding. The inverse association between DOACs and stroke was consistent across all CKD categories. If confirmed by others, CKD ought to be added to stroke risk scores in AF.5 year stroke risk5 year death risk

Trends in clinical outcomes of patients with incident atrial fibrillation; results from a nationwide registry

Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with the risk of stroke and death. Advancements in patient care, such as direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) use, are expected to improve AF patients' outcomes. However, real-world data examining this expectation are sparse. Methods We performed a historical population-based study among patients of Israel's largest health-maintenance-organization among patients aged&amp;gt;21 years diagnosed with AF between 01/01/2010 and 01/01/2020. The study population was divided into early-era (2010-2014) and late-era (2015-2020). We compared the time-dependent 5-year risk of stroke, intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB), or death. Results Of 98,241 patients (median-age:76, 51.3% women), 48,852 were in the early-era, and 49,389 were in the late-era. The late-era group had higher rates of OAC than the early-era group (51.3% vs. 33.5%, p&amp;lt;0.001). The predominant OACs were warfarin (28.4%) in the early-era and DOACs (45.1%) in the late-era. Five-year death rates were 17,226 (35.3%) and 14,702 (29.8%) in the early-era and late-era groups, respectively (p&amp;lt;0.001), and 5-year stroke rates were 1,997 (4.1%) and 1,474 (3.0%) in the early-era and late-era groups, respectively (p&amp;lt;0.001). In multivariate models, era-related death risk was mediated by between-group OAC changes (p-for-interaction&amp;lt;0.001). OAC was associated with lower death risk (aHR 0.93, 95%CI(0.89,0.96),p&amp;lt;0.001). The late-era group had a lower stroke risk (aHR 0.90 95%CI(0.82,0.99),p=0.037), which was associated with between-group OAC changes (p-for-interaction=0.002). OAC was associated with reduced stroke risk in the late-era only (aHR 0.87, 95%CI(0.78,0.97),p=0.012). The risk of ICH was similar across study groups (p=0.40). GIB risk was lower in the late-era (aHR 0.85 95%CI(0.78,0.93),p&amp;lt;0.001). OAC was associated with increased GIB risk in the early-era (aHR 1.32, 95%CI(1.21,1.43),p&amp;lt;0.001) but not in the late-era (aHR 1.06 95%CI(0.96,1.17),p=0.24). Conclusions Contemporary AF management is associated with lower stroke, death, and significant bleeding risks. The pendulum shift from warfarin to DOACs was associated with improved clinical benefits.Survival curves of the outcome

Abstract 13142: Prediction of Embolic Stroke in People Without Atrial Fibrillation and Prior Stroke Using Measures of Atrial Myopathy: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Introduction: There is no effective way to predict embolic stroke (ES) in people without atrial fibrillation (AF). Atrial myopathy—characterized by left atrial (LA) remodeling—is associated with ES independent of AF. Hypothesis: An ES prediction model for people without AF or stroke can be developed with measures of atrial myopathy. Methods: ARIC study participants without AF, stroke, or anticoagulation at visit 5 (2011-13) were followed for 5 years. Covariates included CHA 2 DS 2 VASc variables, P-wave indices, echocardiographic measures of LA function and size, and N-terminal B-type Natriuretic Peptide (NTproBNP). The primary outcome was ischemic stroke. A secondary outcome of possible embolic stroke (PES) was defined as non-lacunar strokes and strokes with new AF within 1 year of stroke. Cox proportional hazards models were created for 5-year ischemic stroke (model A) and PES (model B) risk. Stepwise backwards selection (inclusion threshold P&lt;0.20) generated parsimonious models. Model discrimination and calibration were evaluated by the c-statistic and Hosmer-Lemeshow χ 2 statistic, respectively. Results: 91 ischemic strokes (53 PES) were identified in 4154 participants (59.9% female, mean age 75.1(5.0) years). Age, sex, peripheral arterial disease, hypertension, abnormal P-wave axis, and left atrial reservoir strain were included in model A. Model B added NTproBNP. The C-statistics for models A and B were 0.653 (0.596-0.709) and 0.744 (0.680-0.808), respectively. Both models were well calibrated. Conclusions: Prediction of ES may be achieved using measures of atrial myopathy in people without AF and prior stroke. Validation of our model is needed.

Clinical features, surgical treatment, and long-term outcomes of moyamoya disease in a single institution of Fujian, Southeast China: A retrospective study.

At present, detailed demographic and clinical data of moyamoya disease (MMD) in the population of Southeast China are lacking. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the epidemiological and clinical features of MMD in Southeast China. Our cohort included 170 patients diagnosed with MMD over the preceding 5 years. Clinical characteristics were obtained through a retrospective chart review, while follow-up information and outcomes were obtained through clinical visits and imaging. The median age at symptom onset was 49 years (range 4-73), with a peak in the age distribution observed at 41 to 60 years. The female-to-male ratio was 1.125 (90/80), and the ratio of the ischemic type to the hemorrhagic type was 2.33 (119/50). The most common initial symptom was an ischemic event. The 5-year Kaplan-Meier risk of stroke was 4.9% for all patients treated with surgical revascularization. Of all patients, 83.9% were able to live independently with no significant disability, and 89.8% showed improved cerebral hemodynamics. Our study provided detailed demographic and clinical data on Southeastern Chinese patients with MMD, which was consistent with findings in other parts of China. Raising clinical awareness of MMD in primary hospitals is important to facilitate early diagnosis and timely treatment of MMD patients.

Instantaneous stroke risk assessment of adults in Enugu, South East Nigeria: results from a random point survey

Stroke remains a major cause of morbidity, death, and disability around the world, most especially in black Africans. Understanding the magnitude and appreciation of stroke risk in susceptible populations remains a key strategy in reducing stroke burden. This study examined and compared 5-year stroke risk in an adult population in Enugu, Southeast Nigeria. A point cross-sectional survey assessing stroke risk in adults was done in October 2019 in the city of Enugu as part of the World Stroke Day commemoration using the Stroke Riskometer app, and the data was analyzed. Ethical approval was obtained. The total number of participants in this survey was 117 traders in a market in the Enugu metropolis, Enugu State, Nigeria. More males, 63%, than females, 37%, participated in this study. The total mean age was 47.50 years, with a total mean 5-year stroke risk of 3.93. Stroke risk was noted to be higher in females 4.56 than in males 3.56. Elevated blood pressure was present in 35% of the participants, and elevated blood glucose was seen in 5% of the total population. The World Stroke Organization’s Stroke Riskometer app is a valuable tool in assessing stroke risks especially in resource poor settings. This app also serves as a cost-effective method of conducting epidemiological research in stroke and other non-communicable diseases internationally. Hypertension remains the most common risk factor for stroke globally. Higher stroke risk in females likely associated with higher mean age.

The prevalence of chronic dehydration and associated with cardiometabolic risks among agriculture and aquaculture workers.

Chronic dehydration is associated with complications and mortality in acute ischemic stroke patients. Prior literature indicates that farmers and fishery workers are commonly affected by cardiometabolic diseases and there is a need for early prevention of stroke. This study explores the prevalence of dehydration and the association of cardiometabolic risk profiles in agricultural and aquaculture workers. We conducted a community-based, cross-sectional study of agriculture and aquaculture workers in Yunlin County of Taiwan between August 1 and December 31, 2021. Data on demographic characteristics and health-related lifestyles were collected through one-on-one interviews using a questionnaire. The threshold for dehydration is defined as serum osmolality ≥295 mOsm/kg, and physiological biomarkers were collected from a collaborating hospital. Multivariable logistic regression analyses adjusted for demographic characteristics were performed to investigate the association between dehydration levels, cardiometabolic risks, and health-related behaviors. A total of 962 Taiwanese agriculture and aquaculture workers who were predominantly women (65%) with a mean age of 64 years (SD = 13.8) were enrolled. The findings showed a high prevalence of dehydration (36%), metabolic syndrome (44.5%), abnormal waist circumference (64.4%), and abnormal blood pressure (68.5%). Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that dehydration was significantly associated with metabolic syndrome (p < 0.001), 10-year stroke risk prediction (p < 0.001), and an unhealthy lifestyle (p < 0.001). The prevalence of chronic dehydration was higher in Taiwanese agriculture and aquaculture workers, which was significantly associated with cardiometabolic risks and unhealthy lifestyles.

Knowledge and perspectives of community members on risk assessment for stroke prevention using mobile health approaches in Nigeria

ObjectivesTo assess the knowledge of community dwelling adults on stroke risk and their willingness to use mobile health (mHealth) technology in assessing their stroke risk. Materials and MethodsA cross-sectional study was conducted among adults (≥18 years old) using survey questionnaires designed by neurologists and health promotion experts and administered by trained study staff. Logistic regression models were used to assess factors associated with receptivity toward knowing individual stroke risk score and willingness to use a mobile application (App) to assess stroke risk. ResultsThe survey was administered to 486 participants in Nigeria, with a mean age of 47.4 ± 15.5 years, comprising 53.5% females. Up to 84% of participants wanted to know their risk for developing stroke but only 29.6% of respondents had ever previously had their stroke risk assessed. Factors associated with willingness to know stroke risk were age [aOR (95% CI): 0.97 (0.95 – 0.99)], and Hausa tribe [16.68 (2.16 – 128.92)]. Up to 66% of participants wanted to know their immediate risk of stroke, compared with 6.6% and 2.1% who wanted to know their 5-year or 10-year future stroke risks respectively. Regarding locations, participants preferred stroke risk assessment to be performed at a health facility, at home by health professional, on their own using mHealth (stroke risk calculator application), or at communal gatherings (decreasing order). About 70% specifically wished to learn about their stroke risk via an mHealth application. ConclusionsCommunity dwelling Nigerians wanted to know their immediate risk of stroke using digital platforms, such as a mobile phone stroke risk calculator application. Clinical trials are needed to assess the effectiveness of such a strategy for primary prevention of stroke in sub-Saharan African communities.

Benchmarking Outcomes of Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement in Patients With Bicuspid Aortic Valves

BackgroundThe relative roles for transcatheter and surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) for bicuspid aortic valve (AV) stenosis are debated. This study analyzes the 5-year longitudinal outcomes of isolated SAVR in bicuspid vs tricuspid AV patients, particularly in low-risk patients. MethodsAll patients undergoing isolated index SAVR at 1146 United States hospitals in The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Adult Cardiac database between July 1, 2011, and December 31, 2018, with linkage to Medicare claims, were analyzed. ResultsA total of 65,687 patients were analyzed, including of 9131 bicuspid patients (13.9%). Compared with tricuspid patients, bicuspid patients were significantly younger (median 70 vs 74 years, P < .001) with lower Society of Thoracic Surgeons predicted risk of mortality scores (mean 1.6% vs 2.3%, P < .001) and lower risk profile. Risk-adjusted 30-day mortality and major morbidity were similar, but risk-adjusted 5-year mortality was significantly lower in the bicuspid patients (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.66-0.77), specifically in low-risk patients (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.64-0.76). Additionally, the bicuspid cohort had a lower 5-year readmission risk of heart failure, stroke, bleeding, or other cardiovascular causes (all P < .05). ConclusionsIn this nationally representative study, 30-day mortality was similar, but risk-adjusted 5-year mortality was significantly lower in bicuspid patients undergoing isolated SAVR compared with tricuspid patients, specifically low-risk and normal left ventricular ejection fraction patients. This analysis provides a much-needed 5-year longitudinal national-level benchmark to better inform the discussion of transcatheter vs SAVR in bicuspid patients.

Ability of the DANCAMI to predict the risk ischemic stroke and mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation/flutter

ObjectivesComparison of the danish comorbidity index for acute myocardial infarction (DANCAMI), the charlson comorbidity index (CCI), the elixhauser comorbidity index (ECI), and the CHA2DS2-VASc score to predict ischemic stroke, cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality after atrial fibrillation/flutter. Materials and MethodsA population-based cohort study of all Danish patients with incident atrial fibrillation/flutter during 2000–2020 (n=361,901). C-Statistics were used to evaluate the discriminatory performance for predicting 1 and 5-year risks of the outcomes for a baseline model (including age and sex) +/- the individual indices. ResultsFor the DANCAMI, the 5-year risk did not increase with comorbidity burden for ischemic stroke (5.9% for low vs. 5.6% for severe) but did increase for cardiovascular mortality (10% for low vs. 16% for severe) and all-cause mortality (33% for low vs. 61% for severe). C-Statistics for predicting 5-year ischemic stroke risk were similar for all models (0.64). C-Statistics for predicting 5-year cardiovascular mortality risk were also similar for the baseline (0.76), the DANCAMI (0.77), the CCI (0.76), the ECI (0.76), and the CHA2DS2-VASc (0.76) models. C-Statistics for predicting 5-year all-cause mortality risk were lower for the baseline (0.71) and the CHA2DS2-VASc (0.71) models than for the DANCAMI (0.75), the CCI (0.74), and the ECI (0.74) models. The 1-year C-Statistics were comparable. ConclusionThe DANCAMI predicted ischemic stroke and cardiovascular mortality risks similar to the CCI, the ECI, and the CHA2DS2-VASc. The DANCAMI predicted all-cause mortality risk similar to the CCI and the ECI, but better than the baseline and the CHA2DS2-VASc.

NOAC Therapy According to CHA2DS2-VASc Without Atrial Fibrillation: A Systematic Review.

According to Quality-Adjusted Life Expectancy, novel oral anticoagulant therapy is preferred when the stroke risk is higher than 0.9% per year. CHA2DS2-VASc is a tool to select those patients at high risk for stroke due to atherosclerosis and atrial cardiopathy, who could benefit from anticoagulation even in sinus rhythm. Systematic electronic database searches were conducted using Pubmed and Scopus. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Statement 2020 was followed. Thirteen studies were included, comprising altogether 19,600,104 patients. Data show that the predictive accuracy for stroke of CHA2DS2-VASc among patients with and without atrial fibrillation (AF) is similar, but the benefit of anticoagulation, considering the 1-year risk of stroke for every CHA2DS2-VASc value, starts from higher cutoffs in patients without AF (around CHA2DS2-VASc 4). Atrial fibrillation should no longer be considered a sine qua non for the prevention of thromboembolism in patients at high risk of stroke due to atherosclerosis and atrial disease, but only an additional risk factor to be included in the predictive model used to select patients for novel oral anticoagulant therapy, regardless of the rhythm. CHA2DS2-VASc-AF may be an option. Additional randomized clinical trials are needed.