1-year Cardiovascular Events Research Articles

Stratification of Early Arrhythmic Risk in Patients Admitted for Acute Coronary Syndrome: The Role of the Machine Learning-Derived "PRAISE Score".

The PRAISE (PRedicting with Artificial Intelligence riSk aftEr acute coronary syndrome) score is a machine learning-based model for predicting 1-year adverse cardiovascular or bleeding events in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Its role in predicting arrhythmic complications in ACS remains unknown. Atrial fibrillation (AF) and ventricular arrhythmias (VA) were recorded by continuous electrocardiographic monitoring until discharge in a cohort of 365 participants with ACS prospectively enrolled. We considered two separate timeframes for VA occurrence: ≤ 48 and > 48 h. The objective was to evaluate the ability of the PRAISE score to identify ACS patients at higher risk of in-hospital arrhythmic complications. ROC curve analysis indicated a significant association between PRAISE score and risk of both AF (AUC 0.89, p = 0.0001; optimal cut-off 5.77%) and VA (AUC 0.69, p = 0.0001; optimal cut-off 2.17%). Based on these thresholds, high/low AF PRAISE score groups and high/low VA PRAISE score groups were created, respectively. Patients with a high AF PRAISE score more frequently developed in-hospital AF (19% vs. 1%). Multivariate analysis showed a high AF PRAISE score risk as an independent predictor of AF (HR 4.30, p = 0.016). Patients with high VA PRAISE scores more frequently developed in-hospital VA (25% vs. 8% for VA ≤ 48 h; 33% vs. 3% for VA > 48 h). Multivariate analysis demonstrated a high VA PRAISE score risk as an independent predictor of both VA ≤ 48 h (HR 2.48, p = 0.032) and VA > 48 h (HR 4.93, p = 0.014). The PRAISE score has a comprehensive ability to identify with high specificity those patients at risk for arrhythmic events during hospitalization for ACS.

Abstract 4138647: Opportunistic Screening for Cardiovascular Risk Using Chest X-Rays and Deep Learning: Associations with Coronary Artery Disease in the Project Baseline Health Study and Mass General Brigham Biobank

Introduction/Background: We previously demonstrated that an open-source deep learning model (CXR-CVD Risk) can predict 10-year major adverse cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction&stroke), based on a chest radiograph image (CXR). As deep learning models are black boxes, establishing the biological processes the model captures to predict risk may help build understanding and trust in the model. Research Questions/Hypothesis: To test associations between deep-learning derived CXR-CVD Risk and markers of cardiovascular disease including coronary artery calcium (CAC) and stenosis ≥50% on CT, systolic blood pressure (SBP), ankle brachial index (ABI), and prevalent myocardial infarction and stroke. Methods/Approach: We conducted external validation of CXR-CVD-Risk in two cohorts: 1) 2,097 volunteers in the Project Baseline Health Study (PBHS) and 2) 1,644 Mass General Brigham Biobank (MGBB) patients. The CXR-CVD-Risk model estimated 10-year cardiovascular event risk (probability between 0 and 1) from a CXR image. We calculated linear associations with SBP, ABI, and the logarithm of coronary artery calcium and odds ratios for prevalent hypertension, myocardial infarction, stroke, and, in the MGBB, coronary artery stenosis ≥50%. Analyses were adjusted for age, BMI, sex, smoking status, and enrolling site. Results/Data: CXR-CVD-Risk was associated with CAC in both populations (PBHS: 1.11-fold increase, 95% CI: [1.07-1.16]; MGBB: 1.03-fold increase [1.01-1.05] in CAC per 1% increase in CXR-CV-Risk). CXR-CVD-Risk was also associated with SBP (0.59 mmHg increase [0.24-0.93] in SBP per 1% increase in CXR-CV-Risk), history of hypertension, history of myocardial infarction, and stroke. There was an inverse association with ABI (0.010 decrease [0.005-0.014] in ABI) in the PBHS. In the MGBB, CXR-CVD-Risk was associated with coronary artery stenosis ≥50% (OR = 1.004 [1.002-1.007]). All estimates are after covariate adjustment. Conclusion: This deep learning CXR risk score was associated with coronary artery disease (calcium score and stenosis ≥50%), CVD risk factors, and prevalent CVD. Opportunistic screening using CXRs in the electronic record can identify patients at high risk of CVD who may benefit from prevention.

P129 ASSESS THE ACCURACY OF FOUR RISK ASSESSMENT MODELS (RISKFRS, RISKWHO, RISKACC/AHA, AND RISKJBS) IN PREDICTING 10-YEAR CARDIOVASCULAR EVENT RISK IN INDIAN ACUTE MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION PATIENTS

Background: Despite numerous risk assessment models available for estimating the 10-year risk of cardiovascular (CV) events in individuals requiring primary prevention of CV disease, their applicability and accuracy in the Indian population remain inadequately studied. Objective of the study is to Assess and compare the predictive accuracy of four cardiovascular risk assessment models—RiskFRS, RiskWHO, RiskACC/AHA, and RiskJBS—in determining the 10-year cardiovascular event risk among Indian acute MI patients. Methods: In this study, 250 participants (mean age 59.4 ± 10.6 years; 205 males) without prior cardiovascular disease who experienced acute myocardial infarction (MI) were assessed using four established risk assessment models: Framingham Risk Score (RiskFRS), World Health Organization risk prediction charts (RiskWHO), American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association pooled cohort equations (RiskACC/AHA), and the 3rd Joint British Societies’ risk calculator (RiskJBS). These models estimated the participants’ predicted 10-year risk of cardiovascular events if assessed before the acute MI. Results: RiskWHO provided the lowest risk estimates, with 86.6% of patients estimated to have less than 20% 10-year risk. Conversely, RiskFRS and RiskACC/AHA yielded higher risk estimates (61.7% and 69.8% with less than 20% risk, respectively; p values <0.001 compared to RiskWHO). However, RiskJBS identified the highest proportion of patients as high-risk (only 44.1% at less than 20% risk, p values < 0.01 compared to all other three risk scores). Conclusions: In Indian patients experiencing acute MI, RiskJBS identifies a larger proportion of patients as ’high-risk’ compared to RiskWHO, RiskFRS, and RiskACC/AHA. However, further validation through large-scale prospective studies is necessary. These findings underscore the importance of tailoring risk assessment models to the unique characteristics of the Indian population and highlight the need for additional research to optimize cardiovascular risk prediction and management strategies in this demographic.

Early, Intensive and Persistent Lipid-Lowering Therapy for Secondary Prevention of Acute Coronary Syndrome.

Early and intensive low-density lipoprotein (LDL-C)-lowering therapy plays important roles in secondary prevention of acute coronary syndrome (ACS), but the treatment period for further clinical benefit remains undefined. This single-center, retrospective study explored LDL-C trajectory after ACS and its associations with subsequent cardiovascular events (CVE). In 831 patients with ACS, we evaluated LDL-C reduction during the first 2 months post-ACS as an index of early intervention and the area over the curve for LDL-C using 70 mg/dl as the threshold in the next 6 months (AOC-70) as a persistent intensity index. Patients were followed for a median of 3.0 (1.1-5.2) years for CVE, defined as the composite of cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, angina pectoris requiring revascularization, cerebral infarction, and coronary bypass grafting. LDL-C decreased from baseline to 2 months post-ACS (107±38 mg/dl to 78±25 mg/dl, p＜0.001) through high-intensity statin prescription (91.8%), while achieving rates of LDL-C ＜70 mg/dl at 2 months remained only 40.2% with no significant changes thereafter. During the follow-up period, CVE occurred in 200 patients. LDL-C reduction during the first 2 months and AOC-70 in the next 6 months were both associated with subsequent CVE risk (sub-HR [hazard ratio] [95% confidence interval]: 1.48 [1.16-1.89] and 1.22 [1.05-1.44]). Furthermore, early intervention followed by persistently intensive LDL-C-lowering therapy resulted in further CVE risk reduction. The present study observed that achieving early and intensive LDL-C reduction within the first two months after ACS and maintaining it for the next six months suppressed subsequent CVE risk, suggesting the importance of early, intensive, and persistent LDL-C-lowering therapy in the secondary prevention of ACS.

Skeletonized Versus Pedicled Harvesting of the Internal Thoracic Artery and Long-Term Clinical Outcomes in Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery.

The internal thoracic artery (ITA) is the most important conduit for coronary artery bypass grafting. Recent evidence suggests that skeletonized ITA harvesting yields long-term outcomes inferior to those of pedicled harvesting. The aim was to investigate the impact of the ITA harvesting method on 10-year mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events. In this observational cohort study, we identified all patients from the SWEDEHEART (Swedish Web-System for Enhancement and Development of Evidence-Based Care in Heart Disease Evaluated According to Recommended Therapies) register who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting using at least 1 ITA at Karolinska University Hospital from 2012 to 2021. The main outcome was all-cause mortality, and the secondary outcomes were a combination of myocardial infarction, repeat revascularization, heart failure, and stroke. Outcomes were ascertained using national health data registers and compared between the skeletonized and pedicled groups using weighted flexible parametric survival models. Among 3267 patients, 1657 (51%) underwent pedicled ITA harvesting and 1610 (49%) underwent skeletonized ITA harvesting. The patients' mean age was 66 years, and 15% were women. The weighted all-cause mortality incidence rate in the pedicled versus skeletonized ITA group was 2.6% (95CI, 2.2%-3.0%) versus 2.6% (95% CI, 2.2%-3.1%), respectively (hazard ratio (HR), 1.01 [95% CI, 0.81-1.27]). The weighted major adverse cardiovascular events incidence rate was 7.8% (95% CI, 7.1%-8.6%) versus 7.5% (95% CI, 6.7%-8.4%), respectively (HR, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.82-1.08]). We found no significant differences in all-cause mortality or major adverse cardiovascular events rates between the 2 ITA harvesting methods.

#2766 Impact of CKD screening in high-risk populations and guideline-directed therapy on CV event occurrence and costs in Europe: an IMPACT CKD analysis

Abstract Background and Aims Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a growing health problem in Europe exacerbated by aging and the rise of comorbidities such as diabetes mellitus (DM) and hypertension (HTN). Patients with CKD are often multi-morbid and commonly present with cardiovascular (CV) complications. While CV events including myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) occur more often in patients with advanced CKD, patients with early-stage CKD are also at increased risk. Patients with CKD also experience an increased risk of CV-related mortality, with many patients dying from CV events prior to kidney failure and renal replacement therapy. CV events also present a significant burden to clinicians and healthcare systems due to the high costs and resource use required to manage and treat them. Despite this multidimensional burden, CKD is currently underdiagnosed in Europe, and CKD screening and treatment are rarely included in public health strategies to improve mortality and health outcomes. This study aims to explore the impact of targeted CKD screening followed by guideline-directed therapy in high-risk populations on CV event occurrence and associated treatment costs across Europe. Method The IMPACT CKD microsimulation model simulates CKD progression, CV events, and comorbidities. CKD status is assigned based on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin-creatinine ratio levels (UACR), and CKD progression is predicted by an annual eGFR decline rate. The model was used to compare two scenarios in four country populations (Germany, Netherlands, Spain, United Kingdom [UK]): 1) targeted screening for people with DM and/or HTN followed by optimal compliance to guideline-directed therapy and 2) current practice (no screening, underdiagnosis, low treatment rates). Annual targeted screening assumed both eGFR and UACR testing. Treatment initiation for people diagnosed with CKD was based on Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes guidelines with a 90% compliance assumed to approximate maximum clinical benefit. Therapies were assumed to have a multiplicative treatment effect on eGFR decline and CV events. Current practice assumed observed diagnosis rates without screening and observed treatment rates in each country. For both scenarios, the model projected incidence of CV events and associated management costs in year 10 (2032) and cumulatively over the 10 simulated years (2023-2032). Results Results compare the targeted screening followed by guideline-directed treatment scenario to continuation of current practices for Germany, Netherlands, Spain, and UK (Table 1). The timely diagnosis of patients with CKD and effective treatment was associated with a reduction of 46.7-53.3%, 38.9-41.6%, and 42.1-50.5% in the number of MI, stroke, and HHF events, respectively in 2032 across the four countries. These decreases in the number of CV events were accompanied by proportional reductions in costs to treat the events. Additionally, this policy approach resulted in declines in the cumulative 10-year CV event development and associated healthcare costs, with MI having the largest reductions (40.6-47.2%), followed by HHF (37.4-43.0%), and stroke (29.8-36.1%) across the four countries. Conclusion This study illustrated that early identification of high-risk patients with CKD coupled with guideline-directed treatment would yield substantial clinical and economic benefits from reducing CV events across all four European countries. Fewer MI, stroke, and HHF events were projected in patients with CKD in both 2032 and cumulatively from 2023 to 2032 due to delayed disease progression following effective interventions. Driven by the reduced clinical burden, lower healthcare costs for CV event management were also predicted. These findings support the need for the adoption of policies for early diagnosis and treatment of CKD to slow disease progression and mitigate the growing CV disease burden among patients with CKD and for health systems. Future studies should explore the costs associated with targeted CKD screening and the guideline-directed pharmacological therapies for CKD.

MAFLD predicts cardiovascular disease risk better than MASLD.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) has been proposed as an alternative for the validated definition of metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD). We compared the abilities of MAFLD and MASLD to predict the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Six thousand and ninety sixparticipants from the 2017 to 2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey cohort who received a thorough medical health check-up were chosen for the study. The associations between fatty liver status and coronary risk surrogates, such as 10-year ASCVD risk and self-reported cardiovascular events, were analysed. MAFLD and MASLD were identified in 2911 (47.7%) and 2758 (45.2%) patients, respectively. MAFLD (odds ratio [OR]: 2.14, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.78-2.57, p < .001) was more strongly independently associated with high ASCVD risk than MASLD (OR: 1.82, 95% CI, 1.52-2.18, p < .001) was in comparison with the absence of each condition. However, compared with MAFLD, MASLD alone was not associated with increased ASCVD risk. Multiple logistic regression revealed that MAFLD alone was significantly more strongly associated with a high risk of ASCVD (OR: 2.82; 95% CI: 1.13-7.01; p < .03) than MASLD alone. Although both MAFLD and MASLD were associated with different ASCVD risks, MAFLD predicted the ASCVD risk better than MASLD. The higher predictive ability of MAFLD compared to MASLD was attributed to metabolic dysfunction rather than moderate alcohol use.

The Minimisation of Cardiovascular Disease Screening for Kidney Transplant Candidates.

Background: There is increasing evidence that cardiac screening prior to kidney transplantation does not improve its outcomes. However, risk aversion to perioperative events means that, in practice, testing remains common, limiting the availability of 'real-world' data to support any change. Our objective was to assess perioperative and 1-year post-transplant cardiovascular events in a kidney transplant candidate cohort who received minimal cardiovascular screening. Methods: The retrospective cohort study included all adult kidney-only transplant recipients in a single UK region between January 2015 and December 2021. Kidney transplant recipients asymptomatic of cardiac disease, even those with established risk factors, did not receive cardiac stress testing. The perioperative and 1-year post-transplant cardiovascular event incidences were examined. Logistic regression was used to identify variables of statistical significance that predicted cardiovascular or cerebrovascular events. Results: A total of 895 recipients fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Prior to transplantation, 209 (23%) recipients had an established cardiac diagnosis, and 193 (22%) individuals had a diagnosis of diabetes. A total of 18 (2%) patients had a perioperative event, and there was a 5.7% incidence of cardiovascular events 1 year post-transplantation. The cardiovascular mortality rate was 0.0% perioperatively, 0.2% at 3 months post-transplant, and 0.2% at 1 year post-transplant. Conclusions: This study demonstrates comparable rates of cardiovascular events despite reduced screening in asymptomatic recipients. It included higher risk individuals who may, on the basis of screening results, have been excluded from transplantation in other programmes. It provides further evidence that extensive cardiac screening prior to kidney transplantation is unlikely to be offset by reduced rates of cardiovascular events.

A comparative study of cardiovascular risk stratification methods in type 1 diabetes mellitus patients

The Steno Diabetes Center Copenhagen developed the Steno T1 Risk Engine (ST1RE) to predict cardiovascular events, encompassing fatal and nonfatal ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, heart failure, and peripheral arterial disease in type 1 diabetes mellitus(T1DM).The current study investigated the agreement between ST1RE and the Brazilian Society for Endocrinology and Metabology (SBEM) classification. Participants were included in the study if diagnosed with T1DM and had at least one outpatient visit in 2021. Patients with established cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease on dialysis were excluded. Clinical parameters were obtained from medical records, such as age, body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, physical activity, current smoking, microvascular target organ damage, levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, creatinine, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and albuminuria.Overall, 92 patients (38 males and 53 females) with an age median (P25; P75) of 33 years (25.5;42.5), BMI of 24.8 + 4.1 kg/m2, and duration of diabetes (mean ± SD) of 23.4 + 9.5 years were evaluated. There were no differences considering the gender for most analyzed variables, but a higher proportion of women exhibited microvascular complications such as microalbuminuria, macroalbuminuria, and retinopathy. Our results show a weak agreement in the 10-year cardiovascular risk estimation between SBEM and ST1RE classifications. According to SBEM criteria, 72.8% of patients were considered high-risk, while only 15.2% of patients received the same classification using ST1RE. The dissimilarities between these two classifications were also evident when age and gender factors were compared. While 60% of patients under 35 years were classified as high risk according to SBEM criteria, only 1.8% received this stratification risk in the ST1RE classification.The results indicate a low agreement between the 10-year cardiovascular event risk classification by SBEM and the classification by ST1RE for type 1 diabetes patients without established cardiovascular disease.

High plasma levels of endosialin and cardiovascular events in patients undergoing coronary angiography.

Endosialin, also known as tumor endothelial marker-1, is a transmembrane glycoprotein that plays a role in inflammation and tumor progression. Endosialin is upregulated in atherosclerotic lesions. To elucidate the association between blood endosialin levels and cardiovascular events, we measured plasma endosialin levels in 389 patients undergoing coronary angiography who were followed up for a mean follow-up of 6.4 ± 4.2 years for cardiovascular events (cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, unstable angina, heart failure, stroke, or need for coronary revascularization). Of the 389 patients, 223 had coronary artery disease (CAD). No significant difference was found in plasma endosialin levels between patients with and without CAD (median 0.92 vs. 0.92 ng/mL). During the follow-up, cardiovascular events occurred in 62 patients. Compared with patients without events, those with events had higher endosialin levels (1.12 vs. 0.89 ng/mL), and more often had endosialin level of > 1.1 ng/mL (53% vs. 31%) (P < 0.01). A Kaplan-Meier analysis showed lower event-free survival in patients with endosialin > 1.1 ng/mL than those with ≤ 1.1 ng/mL (P < 0.01). In a multivariate Cox regression analysis, endosialin > 1.1 ng/mL was an independent predictor of cardiovascular events (hazard ratio = 2.00; 95%CI = 1.21-3.32; P < 0.01). Thus, high plasma endosialin levels were associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events in patients undergoing coronary angiography.

Abstract 17879: Assessing the Safety of an Early Repatriation Strategy for Uncomplicated ST-Elevation Myocardial Patients After Primary Percutaneous Intervention

Introduction: Repatriation of patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) after primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) is common in Canadian regional health care programs. However, the safety of early repatriation after PPCI in uncomplicated STEMI patients remains unknown. We aimed to compare the outcomes between uncomplicated STEMI patients repatriated early (transfer to home hospital ≤4hrs of PPCI completion) vs. those who remained at the PPCI-hospital until discharge. Methods: We performed a retrospective, cohort study examining consecutive, uncomplicated STEMI patients treated with PPCI between 2016-2018 in the Fraser Health Authority. Patients were designated as uncomplicated if there was no evidence of cardiogenic shock, prolonged cardiac arrest or congestive heart failure requiring mechanical ventilation. Outcomes of interest included discharge with guideline-based medical therapy (GBMT) and a composite of 1-year major cardiovascular events. Results: A total of 787 patients were included for analysis, with 62% (n=492) being repatriated early. Early repatriated patients were similar in age and baseline characteristics when compared with those discharged from the PPCI-based hospital. Interestingly, early repatriated patients were more likely to be discharged on GBMT (89% vs. 83%, p=0.015) In multivariate analysis, early repatriation was not associated with worsened 1-year cardiovascular outcomes (OR 1.05, 95% CI 0.6782,1.6521, p=0.80). Independent predictors of 1-year major cardiovascular outcomes included hypertension (OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.0918-2.8349, p=0.02) and discharge with GBMT (OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.2831-0.8465, p=0.01). Amongst the subset of early repatriated patients, primary treatment by cardiologist vs internist did not result in differences in 1-year outcomes (10% vs. 8%, p=0.23) or discharge with GBM (87% vs. 83%, p=0.09). Conclusions: Early repatriation of uncomplicated STEMI patients after PPCI was associated with outcomes similar to those having ongoing care at the PPCI-based hospital. Therefore, early repatriation serves as a safe treatment strategy for regional STEMI programs and may be particularly relevant for PPCI centres with limited bed capacity.

Predictive Value of the SCORE, SCORE2, and Pooled Cohort Risk Equation Systems in Patients with Hypertension.

The objective of this study is to assess and compare the accuracy of old and new versions of the European Society of Cardiology Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE and SCORE2) American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology Pooled Cohort Risk Assessment Evaluation (PCE) in predicting long-term cardiovascular events in patients with hypertension. This retrospective study consisted of 788 patients diagnosed with hypertension between 2009 and 2018. The absolute risk for 10-year cardiovascular events was calculated with SCORE, SCORE2, SCORE-OP, and PCE systems based on patients' data obtained on the date of hypertension diagnosis. The study group was followed for the occurrence of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events. The differences between observed and predicted risk calculated using SCORE, SCORE2, and PCE systems and their prognostic value were assessed. The mean age of the 788 patients included in the study, of whom 426 (54.1%) were female, was 54 ± 9 years. During a mean follow-up of 6 years, 173 (22.0%) patients experienced a major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular event. In predicting the occurrence of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events in hypertension patients over the long-term, PCE had a predictive power comparable and slightly superior to 'SCORE2-SCORE-OP (AUC 0.732 vs. 0.724, respectively)' whereas SCORE (AUC 0.689) was inferior to 'SCORE2-SCORE-OP.' In this study, the Pooled Cohort Risk Assessment Equation risk-scoring system was superior to the old and new versions of Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation risk system in predicting the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events that developed in patients with hypertension.

Estimation of 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease in a portuguese population

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common noncommunicable disease and actually the leading cause of death globally. Hence, it is important to identify individuals who may benefit from CVD preventive strategies. The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) has recently updated the European Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) to SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP risk prediction algorithms. Those tools were recalibrated to four groups of countries (low, moderate, high and very high CVD risk) based on national CVD mortality rates published by the WHO, with Portugal being now considered a moderate risk country. Purpose To evaluate the application of SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP in a Portuguese population sample. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study, including individuals aged 40-90 years, without known established Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease, Diabetes mellitus, Chronic Kidney Disease or Familial Hypercholesterolemia. The sample was recruited at a local cardiovascular screening event in Portugal that took place in May 2022. The 10-year fatal and non-fatal CVD risk was calculated using SCORE2 (for individuals aged &amp;lt; 70 years) and SCORE2-OP (for individuals aged ≥ 70 years) tools. Based on CVD risk category, patients were stratified into 3 categories: low to moderate, high and very high risk according to new SCORE algorithms. Primary outcome was the assessment of 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD with SCORE2 e SCORE2-OP in a local Portuguese population. According to the data distribution, appropriate statistical tests were conducted to compare independent samples. Multivariable linear regression was used to analyze 10-year CVD risk. Results This cohort included 431 individuals. Median age was 71 years (Q1-Q3: 65-75) and 66.8% of individuals were women. Regarding baseline characteristics of the included individuals, 48.1% had hypertension, 38.3% had dyslipidemia, 25.5% were obese and 6.6% were smokers. Based on the SCORE2 model 92 (26.1%) individuals were classified into low to moderate risk, 162 (46.0%) into high risk and 98 (27.8%) into very high-risk category. SCORE2 median was 3.43 % (Q1-Q3: 5.5-8.0 p&amp;lt; 0.01) and SCORE2-OP median was 12.70 % (Q1-Q3: 9.7-12.7). Active smoking was the only independent predictor of 10-years CVD risk both in SCORE2 (RR 3.28, 95% CI: 1.93-4.66, p=0.001) and SCORE2-OP (RR 6.31, 95% CI: 2.67-9.52, p&amp;lt;0.001). Conclusions Most individuals in this sample were stratified into high or very high risk of developing 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events. This data is in accordance with the updated risk category of Portugal based on World Health Organization cardiovascular mortality rates. These results not only validate the application of SCORE to the Portuguese setting, but also reinforce how this easily applicable tool can help to identify patients who will benefit from CVD preventive strategies.

Impact of Arterial Calcification of the Lower Limbs on Long-Term Clinical Outcomes in Patients on Hemodialysis

Lower limbs' arterial calcification is significantly associated with the clinical severity of lower extremity artery disease (LEAD) in patients undergoing hemodialysis (HD). However, the association between arterial calcification of the lower limbs and long-term clinical outcomes in patients on HD has not been elucidated. Calcification scores of the superficial femoral artery (SFACS) and below-knee arteries (BKACS) were quantitatively evaluated in 97 HD patients who were followed for 10 years. Clinical outcomes, including all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, cardiovascular events, and limb amputation were evaluated. Risk factors for clinical outcomes were evaluated using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard analyses. Furthermore, SFACS and BKACS were divided into three groups (low, middle, and high), and their associations with clinical outcomes were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. SFACS, BKACS, C-reactive protein, serum albumin, age, diabetes, presence of ischemic heart disease, and critical limb-threatening ischemia were significantly associated with 3-year and 10-year clinical outcomes in the univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis showed that SFACS was an independent factor associated with 10-year cardiovascular events and limb amputations. Kaplan-Meier life table analysis showed that higher SFACS and BKACS levels were significantly associated with cardiovascular events and mortality. In conclusion, long-term clinical outcomes and the risk factors in patients undergoing HD were evaluated. Arterial calcification of the lower limbs was strongly associated with 10-year cardiovascular events and mortality in patients undergoing HD.

Riesgo cardiovascular del personal de un centro asistencial: ¿organización mundial de la salud o Framingham?

Introducción: la evolución de los determinantes de las enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles pronostica un aumento en su incidencia y prevalencia. Esto condicionaría mayor morbilidad y mortalidad generando una creciente necesidad de uso de recursos del sistema de salud. El Score de Framingham y las tablas de predicción de riesgo de la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) permiten calcular el riesgo de sufrir un evento cardiovascular a 10 años.&#x0D; Objetivos: calcular el riesgo cardiovascular según Score de Framingham y las tablas OMS en ambos casos con y sin empleo de laboratorio. Comparar las categorías de riesgo cardiovascular de Framingham y OMS, con y sin datos de laboratorio.

Sex-specific associations of myocardial perfusion imaging with outcomes in patients with suspected chronic coronary syndrome

BackgroundMyocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS) is an established diagnostic technique for inducible ischemia in patients with suspected chronic coronary syndrome (CCS). Some MPS findings, most notably an ischemia extent>10% of the left ventricle (LV), hold prognostic significance and support maximization of anti-ischemic treatment. We aimed to assess sex-specific associations of MPS findings with cardiovascular (CV) events in a population at high risk of CCS. MethodsIn a prospective cohort study, 1,229 consecutive patients (age 70 ± 9.5 years, 73.5% males) without known CCS were referred to stress-rest MPS. All patients were followed for a median of 4.6 years for CV events. ResultsMen and women had comparable risk profiles and incidence rates of CV events (6.6% vs. 4.6% respectively, P = 0.186). A summed stress score (SSS) > 7 was associated with the primary endpoint, including CV death and/or nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI) (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 3.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.79-5.46; P = 0.001), all-cause mortality (HR, 3.01; 95% CI, 1.31-6.93; P = 0.01), and incidence of late revascularization (HR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.22-2.78; P = 0.004) in men but not women. A summed difference score (SDS) > 6 was related to a higher rate of the primary endpoint only in men (adjusted HR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.18-3.30; P = 0.009). ConclusionsAmong patients undergoing a diagnostic workup for suspected CCS, stress perfusion and reversible ischemia abnormalities may independently predict worse survival and more CV events in men. However, the obtained results indicated the need for sex-specific cutoffs to refine risk stratification and assist in clinical decisions on anti-ischemic therapy beyond coronary artery anatomy.

Estimated versus observed 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular event rates in a rural population-based health initiative: The Heart of New Ulm Project

ObjectiveAssess discrepancy between estimated 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk and observed 10-year event rates in a rural population participating in cardiovascular health initiative. MethodsThe study included a rural sample of individuals participating in the Heart of New Ulm (HONU), a population-based health initiative aimed at reducing ASCVD risk in a rural community. HONU conducted over 100 baseline screening events with 5221 individuals participating in 2009. For this analysis, we included participants who were aged 40–79 years, free of ASCVD at baseline, and had adequate data to calculate 10-year ASCVD risk. Electronic health record data and state death records were used to determine rates of non-fatal myocardial infarction and stroke, and ASCVD death from 2010–2019. ASCVD event rates were compared to estimated 10-year risks calculated using the Pooled Cohort Equations, stratified by sex and clinically relevant risk categories. ResultsThe sample (n = 2819, mean ± SD age 56.1 ± 9.9 years, 59.6% female) had a low prevalence of tobacco use (8.1% current smokers) and diabetes (6.5%) and a high prevalence of hypertension (44.4%) and hyperlipidemia (56.6%). The median estimated 10-year ASCVD risk for the entire sample was 5.7% (IQR 2.3–13.5%) with an observed 10-year ASCVD event rate of 3.4%. The largest gap between observed and estimated risk was in those at intermediate/high (≥7.5%) ASCVD risk (median 10-year risk 15.8% [IQR 10.4–29.0], observed ASCVD event rate 6.4%). ConclusioIn a sample of rural participants exposed to a multifaceted ASCVD prevention initiative, observed rates of ASCVD were substantially lower compared to estimated ASCVD risk. The potential for significantly lower than predicted ASCVD event rates in certain populations should be included in the clinician-patient risk discussion.

Abstract 9559: Isolated Functional Tricuspid Regurgitation: Importance of Atrial Fibrillation and Right Atrial Remodeling and Prognostic Significance

Aim: We aimed to identify the risk factors for progression from mild tricuspid regurgitation (TR) to significant isolated functional TR (FTR) in relation to atrial fibrillation (AF) and assess its prognostic implications. Background: Isolated FTR is an increasingly recognized type of TR, but little is known about the determinants and outcomes. Method: We retrospectively studied 833 patients who had mild TR at baseline echocardiography and underwent follow-up echocardiography at least 1-year apart. Significant TR was defined as ≥moderate TR. Isolated FTR was defined as TR with no overt cause. Patients were stratified by the baseline AF. The Mantel-Byar test was used to compare the clinical outcomes according to significant TR progression. Result: Of 833 patients with mild TR, 291 patients (34.9%) had AF. During the median 4.6 years, significant TR developed in 35 patients, including 33 isolated FTRs, which were markedly higher in patients with AF than in those without (11.0% vs. 0.6%, P &lt;0.001). In Cox analysis, AF was a strong risk factor for isolated FTR progression (adjusted hazard ratio: 7.97, 95% confidence interval: 2.26–28.12, P =0.001). Among AF patients, those who developed significant isolated FTR had a larger baseline right atrium (RA) area (23.8 vs. 19.1 cm 2 , P &lt;0.001) and area ratio of RA to right ventricle at end-systole (3.0 vs. 2.3, P &lt;0.001) than those who did not. These parameters were also independent predictors of isolated FTR progression. The 10-year cumulative major adverse cardiovascular event was significantly higher after isolated FTR progression than before or without progression (79.8% vs. 8.6%, Mantel-Byar P &lt;0.001). Conclusion: In patients with mild TR, significant isolated FTR developed predominantly in AF patients. RA enlargement, especially with a higher RA to right ventricle end-systolic area ratio, was a strong risk factor for isolated FTR progression in AF patients. Patients with significant isolated FTR conferred poor prognosis.

Peripheral Artery Disease Screening in the Community and 1-Year Mortality, Cardiovascular Events, and Adverse Limb Events

This study aimed to examine all-cause mortality, 1- and 2-year major cardiovascular events, and major adverse limb events in individuals aged ≥65 years who received an in-home health visit with peripheral artery disease screening. In addition, we compared 1-year healthcare utilization before and after peripheral artery disease screening for those who screened positive. Medicare Advantage beneficiaries aged ≥65 years participating in the Optum HouseCalls program in the U.S. between April 1, 2017 and February 1, 2019 were included. The intervention consisted of a peripheral artery disease screening program using a plethysmography system. One-year all-cause mortality as a landmark analysis, 1- and 2-year major cardiovascular events, and major adverse limb events after screening were compared by peripheral artery disease screen status using claims data. We compared cardiovascular medications and revascularization procedures between the year before and after the peripheral artery disease screening event for those with peripheral artery disease. Of 192,500 beneficiaries, 27.7% screened positive. One-year all-cause mortality rates for those who screened positive for peripheral artery disease versus those who screened negative were higher (1.51% vs 0.89%; p<0.001; adjusted hazard ratio=1.21; 95% CI=1.08, 1.36) as well as 1-year major cardiovascular events (5.54% vs 3.60%; adjusted hazard ratio= 1.22; 95% CI=1.15, 1.30) and major adverse limb events (0.23% vs 0.04%; adjusted hazard ratio=3.15; 95% CI=2.10, 4.73). Similar risks were observed for 2-year results. Before and after peripheral artery disease screening, medications remained stable for those who screened positive (e.g., statin therapy=54.2% vs 56.6%); rates of peripheral vascular interventions remained stable (0.0% vs 0.1%). A national peripheral artery disease screening effort is feasible. Detecting previously undiagnosed peripheral artery disease is a way to risk stratify a population that would benefit from further cardiovascular risk management.

Predictors of 1-Year Major Cardiovascular Events after ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction in a Specialized Cardiovascular Center in Western Iran.

Background: Identifying the long-term predictors of recurrent cardiovascular events may help improve the quality of care and prevent subsequent events. We aimed to investigate the predictors of 1-year major cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients discharged after ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) in a tertiary hospital in Iran. Methods: This registry-based cohort study included consecutive STEMI patients between 2016 and 2019 in Imam-Ali Hospital, Kermanshah, Iran. All patients discharged alive from STEMI hospitalization were followed up for 1 year for MACE, consisting of all-cause mortality, nonfatal MI, and nonfatal stroke. We estimated the hazard ratio (HR) and the 95% confidence interval (95% CI) using Cox proportional-hazard models to evaluate potential predictors, including demographic characteristics, medical history, cardiovascular risk factors, laboratory tests, reperfusion therapy, and medications. Results: During 2187.2 person-years, 21 patients were lost to follow-up (success rate =99.1%). Of 2274 post-discharge STEMI patients (mean age =60.26 y; 21.9% female), 151 (6.6%) experienced MACE, including, all-cause mortality (n=115, 5.1%), nonfatal MI (n=20, 0.9%), and nonfatal stroke (n=16, 0.7%). Independent predictors of MACE were age (HR:1.02; 95% CI: 1.00-1.04), no education vs ≥12 years of formal schooling (HR: 2.07; 95% CI: 1.17-3.67), stroke history (HR: 2.37; 95% CI: 1.48-3.81), the glomerular filtration rate (HR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.97-1.00), the body mass index (HR: 0.94; 95% CI:, 0.89-0.99), peak creatine kinase-MB (HR: 1.00; 95% CI: 1.00-1.002), thrombolysis vs primary percutaneous coronary intervention (HR: 1.85; 95% CI: 1.21-2.81), and left ventricular ejection fraction <35% vs ≥50% (HR: 2.82; 95% CI: 1.46-5.47). Conclusion: Age, education, stroke history, the glomerular filtration rate, the body mass index, peak creatine kinase-MB, reperfusion therapy, and left ventricular function can be independently associated with 1-year MACE.