Abstract Traditionally, electricity distribution networks were designed for unidirectional power flow without the need to accommodate generation installed at the point of use. However, with the increase in Distributed Energy Resources and other Low Carbon Technologies, the role of distribution networks is changing. This shift brings challenges, including the need for intensive metering and more frequent reconfiguration to identify threats from voltage and thermal violations. Mitigating action through reconfiguration is informed by State Estimation, which is especially challenging for low voltage distribution networks where the constraints of low observability, non-linear load relationships, and highly unbalanced systems all contribute to the difficulty of producing accurate state estimates. To counter low observability, this paper proposes the application of a novel transfer learning methodology, based upon the concept of conditional online Bayesian transfer, to make forward predictions of bus pseudo-measurements. Day ahead load forecasts at a fully observed point on the network are adjusted using the intraday residuals at other points in the network to provide them with load forecasts without the need for a complete set of forecast models at all substations. These form pseudo-measurements that then inform the state estimates at future time points. This methodology is demonstrated on both a representative IEEE Test network and on an actual GB 11 kV feeder network.

Abstract Compressible anisothermal flows, which are commonly found in industrial settings such as combustion chambers and heat exchangers, are characterized by significant variations in density, viscosity, and heat conductivity with temperature. These variations lead to a strong interaction between the temperature and velocity fields that impacts the near-wall profiles of both quantities. Wall-modeled large-eddy simulations (LESs) rely on a wall model to provide a boundary condition, for example, the shear stress and the heat flux that accurately represents this interaction despite the use of coarse cells near the wall, and thereby achieve a good balance between computational cost and accuracy. In this article, the use of graph neural networks for wall modeling in LES is assessed for compressible anisothermal flow. Graph neural networks are a type of machine learning model that can learn from data and operate directly on complex unstructured meshes. Previous work has shown the effectiveness of graph neural network wall modeling for isothermal incompressible flows. This article develops the graph neural network architecture and training to extend their applicability to compressible anisothermal flows. The model is trained and tested a priori using a database of both incompressible isothermal and compressible anisothermal flows. The model is finally tested a posteriori for the wall-modeled LES of a channel flow and a turbine blade, both of which were not seen during training.

Abstract Simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) is the task of building a map representation of an unknown environment while at the same time using it for positioning. A probabilistic interpretation of the SLAM task allows for incorporating prior knowledge and for operation under uncertainty. Contrary to the common practice of computing point estimates of the system states, we capture the full posterior density through approximate Bayesian inference. This dynamic learning task falls under state estimation, where the state-of-the-art is in sequential Monte Carlo methods that tackle the forward filtering problem. In this paper, we introduce a framework for probabilistic SLAM using particle smoothing that does not only incorporate observed data in current state estimates, but it also backtracks the updated knowledge to correct for past drift and ambiguities in both the map and in the states. Our solution can efficiently handle both dense and sparse map representations by Rao-Blackwellization of conditionally linear and conditionally linearized models. We show through simulations and real-world experiments how the principles apply to radio (Bluetooth low-energy/Wi-Fi), magnetic field, and visual SLAM. The proposed solution is general, efficient, and works well under confounding noise.

Abstract The atomic bomb uses fission of heavy elements to produce a large amount of energy. It was designed and deployed during World War II by the United States military. The first test of an atomic bomb occurred in July 1945 in New Mexico and was given the name Trinity; this test was not declassified until 1949. In that year, Geoffrey Ingram Taylor released two papers detailing his process in calculating the energy yield of the atomic bomb from pictures of the Trinity explosion alone. Many scientists made similar calculations concurrently, although Taylor is often accredited with them. Since then, many scientists have also attempted to calculate a yield through various methods. This paper walks through these methods with a focus on Taylor’s method—based on first principles—as well as redoing the calculations that he performed with modern tools. In this paper, we make use of state-of-the-art computer vision tools to find a more precise measurement of the blast radius, as well as using curve fitting and numerical integration methods. With more precise measurements we are able to follow in Taylor’s footstep toward a more accurate approximation.

Abstract In a Model Predictive Control (MPC) setting, the precise simulation of the behavior of the system over a finite time window is essential. This application-oriented benchmark study focuses on a robot arm that exhibits various nonlinear behaviors. For this arm, we have a physics-based model with approximate parameter values and an open benchmark dataset for system identification. However, the long-term simulation of this model quickly diverges from the actual arm’s measurements, indicating its inaccuracy. We compare the accuracy of black-box and purely physics-based approaches with several physics-informed approaches. These involve different combinations of a neural network’s output with information from the physics-based model or feeding the physics-based model’s information into the neural network. One of the physics-informed model structures can improve accuracy over a fully black-box model.

Abstract Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) is promising for solving control problems in fluid mechanics, but it is a new field with many open questions. Possibilities are numerous and guidelines are rare concerning the choice of algorithms or best formulations for a given problem. Besides, DRL algorithms learn a control policy by collecting samples from an environment, which may be very costly when used with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solvers. Algorithms must therefore minimize the number of samples required for learning (sample efficiency) and generate a usable policy from each training (reliability). This paper aims to (a) evaluate three existing algorithms (DDPG, TD3, and SAC) on a fluid mechanics problem with respect to reliability and sample efficiency across a range of training configurations, (b) establish a fluid mechanics benchmark of increasing data collection cost, and (c) provide practical guidelines and insights for the fluid dynamics practitioner. The benchmark consists in controlling an airfoil to reach a target. The problem is solved with either a low-cost low-order model or with a high-fidelity CFD approach. The study found that DDPG and TD3 have learning stability issues highly dependent on DRL hyperparameters and reward formulation, requiring therefore significant tuning. In contrast, SAC is shown to be both reliable and sample efficient across a wide range of parameter setups, making it well suited to solve fluid mechanics problems and set up new cases without tremendous effort. In particular, SAC is resistant to small replay buffers, which could be critical if full-flow fields were to be stored.

Abstract The seismic response of a wide variety of structures, from small but irreplaceable museum exhibits to large bridge systems, is characterized by rocking. In addition, rocking motion is increasingly being used as a seismic protective strategy to limit the amount of seismic actions (moments) developed at the base of structures. However, rocking is a highly nonlinear phenomenon governed by non-smooth dynamic phases that make its prediction difficult. This study presents an alternative approach to rocking estimation based on a physics-informed convolutional neural network (PICNN). By training a group of PICNNs using limited datasets obtained from numerical simulations and encoding the known physics into the PICNNs, important predictive benefits are obtained relieving difficulties associated with over-fitting and minimizing the requirement for a large training database. Two models are created depending on the validation of the deep PICNN: the first model assumes that state variables including rotations and angular velocities are available, while the second model is useful when only acceleration measurements are known. The analysis is initiated by implementing K-means clustering. This is followed by a detailed statistical assessment and a comparative analysis of the response-histories of a rocking block. It is observed that the deep PICNN is capable of effectively estimating the seismic rocking response history when the rigid block does not overturn.

Abstract The Internet of Things (IoT) and wearable computing are crucial elements of modern information systems and applications in which advanced features for user interactivity and monitoring are required. However, in the fields of pervasive gaming, IoT has had limited real-world applications. In this work, we present a prototype of a wearable platform for pervasive games that combines IoT with wearable computing to enable the real-time monitoring of physical activity. The main objective of the solution is to promote the utilization of gamification techniques to enhance the physical activity of users through challenges and quests. This aims to create a symbolic link between the virtual gameplay and the real-world environment without the requirement of a smartphone. With the integration of sensors and wearable devices by design, the platform has the capability of real-time monitoring the users’ physical activity during the game. The system performance results highlight the efficiency and attractiveness of the wearable platform for gamifying physical activity.

Abstract Offshore wind turbines intend to take a rapidly growing share in the electric mix. The design, installation, and exploitation of these industrial assets are regulated by international standards, providing generic guidelines. Constantly, new projects reach unexploited wind resources, pushing back installation limits. Therefore, turbines are increasingly subject to uncertain environmental conditions, making long-term investment decisions riskier (at the design or end-of-life stage). Fortunately, numerical models of wind turbines enable to perform accurate multi-physics simulations of such systems when interacting with their environment. The challenge is then to propagate the input environmental uncertainties through these models and to analyze the distribution of output variables of interest. Since each call of such a numerical model can be costly, the estimation of statistical output quantities of interest (e.g., the mean value, the variance) has to be done with a restricted number of simulations. To do so, the present paper uses the kernel herding method as a sampling technique to perform Bayesian quadrature and estimate the fatigue damage. It is known from the literature that this method guarantees fast and accurate convergence together with providing relevant properties regarding subsampling and parallelization. Here, one numerically strengthens this fact by applying it to a real use case of an offshore wind turbine operating in Teesside, UK. Numerical comparison with crude and quasi-Monte Carlo sampling demonstrates the benefits one can expect from such a method. Finally, a new Python package has been developed and documented to provide quick open access to this uncertainty propagation method.

Abstract This article proposes a framework of linked software agents that continuously interact with an underlying knowledge graph to automatically assess the impacts of potential flooding events. It builds on the idea of connected digital twins based on the World Avatar dynamic knowledge graph to create a semantically rich asset of data, knowledge, and computational capabilities accessible to humans, applications, and artificial intelligence. We develop three new ontologies to describe and link environmental measurements and their respective reporting stations, flood events, and their potential impact on population and built infrastructure as well as the built environment of a city itself. These coupled ontologies are deployed to dynamically instantiate near real-time data from multiple fragmented sources into the World Avatar. Sequences of autonomous agents connected via the derived information framework automatically assess consequences of newly instantiated data, such as newly raised flood warnings, and cascade respective updates through the graph to ensure up-to-date insights into the number of people and building stock value at risk. Although we showcase the strength of this technology in the context of flooding, our findings suggest that this system-of-systems approach is a promising solution to build holistic digital twins for various other contexts and use cases to support truly interoperable and smart cities.