Abstract. Observational data and numerical models suggest that, under climate change, elevated land surfaces warm faster than non-elevated ones. Proposed drivers of this “elevation-dependent warming” (EDW) include surface albedo and water vapour feedbacks, the temperature dependence of longwave emission, and aerosols. Yet the relative importance of each proposed mechanism both regionally and at large scales is unclear, highlighting an incomplete physical understanding of EDW. Here we expand on previous regional studies and use gridded observations, atmospheric reanalysis, and a range of climate model simulations to investigate EDW over the historical period across the tropics and subtropics (40° S to 40° N). Observations, reanalysis, and fully coupled models exhibit annual mean warming trends (1959–2014), binned by surface elevation, which are larger over elevated surfaces and broadly consistent across datasets. EDW varies by season, with stronger observed signals in local winter and autumn. Analysis of large ensembles of single-forcing simulations (1959–2005) suggests historical EDW is likely a forced response of the climate system rather than an artefact of internal variability and is primarily driven by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. To gain quantitative insight into the mechanisms contributing to large-scale EDW, a forcing–feedback framework based on top-of-atmosphere energy balance is applied to the fully coupled models. This framework identifies the Planck and surface albedo feedbacks as being robust drivers of EDW (i.e. enhancing warming over elevated surfaces), with energy transport by the atmospheric circulation also playing an important role. In contrast, water vapour and cloud feedbacks along with weaker radiative forcing in elevated regions oppose EDW. Implications of the results for understanding future EDW are discussed.

Abstract. The North Atlantic Oscillation explains a large fraction of the climate variability across the North Atlantic from the eastern seaboard of North America across the whole of Europe. Many studies have linked the North Atlantic Oscillation to climate extremes in this region, especially in winter, which has motivated considerable study of this pattern of variability. However, one overlooked feature of how the North Atlantic Oscillation has changed over time is the explained variance of the pattern. Here we show that there has been a considerable increase in the percentage of variability explained by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the 20th century from 32 % in 1930 to 53 % by the end of the 20th century. Whether this change is due to natural variability, a forced response to climate change, or some combination remains unclear. However, we found no evidence for a forced response from an ensemble of 50 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. These models did all show substantial internal variability in the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation, but it was biased towards being too high compared to the reanalysis and with too little variation over time. Since there is a direct connection between the North Atlantic Oscillation and climate extremes over the region, this has direct consequences for both the long-term projection and near-term prediction of changes to climate extremes in the region.

Abstract. In this study we provide a systematic characterization of Rossby wave activity during the 25 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) and 31 strong polar vortex (SPV) events that occurred in the period 1979–2021, identifying the specific tropospheric and stratospheric waves displaying anomalous behaviour during such events. Space–time spectral analysis is applied to ERA5 data for this purpose, so that both the wavenumber and the zonal phase speed of the waves can be assessed. We find that SSW events are associated with a reduction in the phase speed of Rossby waves, first in the stratosphere and then in the troposphere; SPV events are tied to a simultaneous increase of phase speed across vertical levels. Phase speed anomalies become significant around the event and persist for 2–3 weeks afterwards. Changes of Rossby wave properties in the stratosphere during SSW and SPV events are dominated by changes in the background flow, with a systematic reduction or increase, respectively, in eastward propagation of the waves across most wavenumbers. In the troposphere, on the other hand, the effect of the background flow is also complemented by changes in wave properties, with a shift towards higher wavenumbers during SSW events and towards lower wavenumbers for SPV events. The opposite response between SSW and SPV events is also visible in the meridional heat and momentum flux co-spectra, which highlight from a novel perspective the connection between stratospheric Rossby waves and upward propagation of waves.

Abstract. We describe the use of regional relaxation (“nudging”) experiments carried out in initialised hindcasts to shed light on the contribution from particular regions to the errors developing in the Asian summer monsoon. Results so far confirm previous hypotheses that errors in the Maritime Continent region contribute substantially to the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM) circulation errors through their effects on the western North Pacific subtropical high. Locally forced errors over the Indian region also contribute to the EASM errors. Errors arising over the Maritime Continent region also affect the circulation and sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Indian Ocean region, contributing to a persistent error pattern resembling a positive Indian Ocean dipole phase. This is associated with circulation errors over India and the strengthening and extension of the westerly jet across southeast Asia and the South China Sea into the western Pacific, thereby affecting the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) circulation and rainfall patterns as a whole. However, errors developing rapidly in the deeper equatorial Indian Ocean, apparently independently of the atmosphere errors, are also contributing to this bias pattern. Preliminary analysis of nudging increments over the Maritime Continent region suggests that these errors may at least partly be related to deficiencies in the convection and boundary layer parameterisations.

Abstract. We introduce an innovative 2-week educational block course held at the University of Bonn during the 2023 winter semester, focusing on Cloud Model 1 (CM1) and its convection-resolving capabilities. During the course, participants gained essential skills in setting up and customizing CM1 simulations on a high-performance computing cluster while gaining insights into moist-convection dynamics. An additional introduction to three-dimensional visualization software allowed the participants to transform numerical data into compelling visualizations, deepening their insights into cloud dynamics. The participants applied their gained knowledge in research projects of their own choice that will be presented here and in the Supplement.

Abstract. Conventionally, teleconnections in the atmosphere are described by correlations between monthly mean fields. These correlations are supposedly caused by stationary Rossby waves. The main hypothesis explored in this idea is that teleconnections are instead established by chains of events on synoptic timescales, that is by weather. Instead I hypothesise that non-stationary Rossby waves play an important role in establishing teleconnections. If these hypotheses are correct, much of the vast literature on this topic misses an essential part of the atmospheric dynamics leading to teleconnections.

Abstract. The Met Office Global Coupled Model (GC) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) are both widely used for predicting and simulating the Indian summer monsoon (ISM), and previous studies have demonstrated similarities in the biases in both systems at a range of timescales from weather forecasting to climate simulation. In this study, ISM biases are studied in seasonal forecasting setups of the two systems in order to provide insight into how they develop across timescales. Similarities are found in the development of the biases between the two systems, with an initial reduction in precipitation followed by a recovery associated with an increasingly cyclonic wind field to the north-east of India. However, this occurs on longer timescales in CFSv2, with a much stronger recovery followed by a second reduction associated with sea surface temperature (SST) biases so that the bias at longer lead times is of a similar magnitude to that in GC. In GC, the precipitation bias is almost fully developed within a lead time of just 8 d, suggesting that carrying out simulations with short time integrations may be sufficient for obtaining substantial insight into the biases in much longer simulations. The relationship between the precipitation and SST biases in GC seems to be more complex than in CFSv2 and differs between the early part of the monsoon season and the later part of the monsoon season. The relationship of the bias with large-scale drivers is also investigated, using the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) index as a measure of whether the large-scale dynamics favour increasing, active, decreasing or break monsoon conditions. Both models simulate decreasing conditions the best and increasing conditions the worst, in agreement with previous studies and extending these previous results to include CFSv2 and multiple BSISO cycles.

Abstract. Blocking over Greenland stands out in comparison to blocking in other regions, as it favors accelerated Greenland Ice Sheet melting and has substantial impacts on surface weather in adjacent regions, particularly in Europe and North America. Climate models notoriously underestimate the frequency of blocking over Greenland in historical periods, but the reasons for this are not entirely clear, as we are still lacking a full dynamical understanding of Greenland blocking from formation through maintenance to decay. This study investigates the dynamics of blocking life cycles over Greenland based on ERA5 reanalysis data from 1979–2021. A year-round weather regime definition allows us to identify Greenland blocking as consistent life cycles with an objective onset, maximum, and decay stage. By applying a new quasi-Lagrangian potential vorticity (PV) perspective, following the negative, upper-tropospheric PV anomalies (PVAs−) associated with the block, we examine and quantify the contribution from different physical processes, including dry and moist dynamics, to the evolution of the PVA− amplitude. We find that PVAs− linked to blocking do not form locally over Greenland but propagate into the region along two distinct pathways (termed “upstream” and “retrogression”) during the days before the onset. The development of PVAs− differs more between the pathways than between seasons. Moist processes play a key role in the amplification of PVAs− before the onset and are linked to midlatitude warm conveyor belts. Interestingly, we find moist processes supporting the westward propagation of retrograding PVAs− from Europe, too, previously thought to be a process dominated by dry-barotropic Rossby wave propagation. After onset, moist processes remain the main contribution to PVA− amplification and maintenance. However, moist processes weaken markedly after the maximum stage, and dry processes, i.e., barotropic, nonlinear wave dynamics, dominate the decay of the PVAs− accompanied by a general decrease in blocking area. Our results corroborate the importance of moist processes in the formation and maintenance of Greenland blocking and suggest that a correct representation of moist processes might help reduce forecast errors linked to blocking in numerical weather prediction models and blocking biases in climate models.

Abstract. Over heterogeneous, mountainous terrain, the determination of spatial heterogeneity of any type of a turbulent layer has been known to pose substantial challenges in mountain meteorology. In addition to the combined effect in which buoyancy and shear contribute to the turbulence intensity of such layers, it is well known that mountains add an additional degree of complexity via non-local transport mechanisms, compared to flatter topography. It is therefore the aim of this study to determine the vertical depths of both daytime convectively and shear-driven boundary layers within a fairly wide and deep Alpine valley during summertime. Specifically, three Doppler lidars deployed during the CROSSINN (Cross-valley flow in the Inn Valley investigated by dual-Doppler lidar measurements) campaign within a single week in August 2019 are used to this end, as they were deployed along a transect nearly perpendicular to the along-valley axis. To achieve this, a bottom-up exceedance threshold method based on turbulent Doppler spectrum width sampled by the three lidars has been developed and validated against a more traditional bulk Richardson number approach applied to radiosonde profiles obtained above the valley floor. The method was found to adequately capture the depths of convective turbulent boundary layers at a 1 min temporal and 50 m spatial resolution across the valley, with the degree of ambiguity increasing once surface convection decayed and upvalley flows gained in intensity over the course of the afternoon and evening hours. Analysis of four intensive observation period (IOP) events elucidated three regimes of the daytime mountain boundary layer in this section of the Inn Valley. Each of the three regimes has been analysed as a function of surface sensible heat flux H, upper-level valley stability Γ, and upper-level subsidence wL estimated with the coplanar retrieval method. Finally, the positioning of the three Doppler lidars in a cross-valley configuration enabled one of the most highly spatially and temporally resolved observational convective boundary layer depth data sets during daytime and over complex terrain to date.

Abstract. Winter windstorms belong to the most damaging meteorological events in the extra-tropics. Their impact on society makes it essential to understand and improve seasonal forecasts of these extreme events. Skilful predictions on a seasonal timescale have been shown in previous studies by investigating hindcasts from various forecast centres. This study aims to explain storm forecast skill based on relevant dynamical factors. Therefore, a number of factors which are known to influence either windstorms directly or their synoptic relevant systems, mid-latitude cyclones, are investigated. These factors are analysed for their relation to windstorm forecast performance based on a reanalysis (ERA5) and the seasonal hindcast of the UK Met Office (Global Seasonal forecasting system version 5, GloSea5). Within GloSea5, relevant dynamical factors are (1) validated with respect to their physical connections to windstorms, (2) investigated with respect to the seasonal forecast skill of the factors themselves, and (3) assessed on the relevance and influence of their forecast performance to and on windstorm forecast skill. Although not all investigated factors reveal a clear and consistent influence on windstorm forecast skill over Europe, core factors like mean sea level pressure gradient, sea surface temperature, equivalent potential temperature and Eady growth rate show consistent results within these three steps: their physical connection is well represented in the model; these factors are skilfully predicted in storm-relevant regions, and, consequently, this skill leads to increased forecast skill of winter windstorms over Europe. This study thus explains existing forecast skill in winter windstorms but also indicates potential for further model developments to improve seasonal winter windstorm predictions.