Recent work in New Zealand predicts that students who receive an extra year of primary school instruction are 41 percent more likely to achieve NCEA Level 3. However, a simple comparison of achievement across students with the greatest average difference in instruction time shows no perceptible differences in outcomes. We explain this apparent paradox by demonstrating that improper sample creation in existing research has generated a spurious relationship. In particular, prior research included students from cohorts which were still progressing through secondary schooling. The consequence of this is that large temporary gaps in achievement are interpreted as long-run differences in outcomes. Correcting the sample yields results which indicate no significant impact of instruction time on secondary outcomes.

Is US monetary policy uncertainty (US MPU) associated with waves of capital flows? Global risk and economic policy uncertainty are associated with capital flows, but less is known about how the US MPU drives capital movements. We investigate the effects of the US MPU on the waves of capital flows in 48 economies (more and less financially open) over the period 1986q2–2018q4. We find that an increase in the US MPU decreases the likelihood of flight and increases the probability of retrenchment. However, countries with capital controls and floating exchange rate systems are successful in mitigating the waves of capital flows. Our findings suggest the US MPU is an important driver of capital flows as per the real options channel. An important implication is that capital controls may be more effective than floating exchange rate systems in managing capital flows amid US monetary policy uncertainty.

This paper examines the effect of trade credit on small and medium enterprises (SMEs) on-the-job training in Vietnam. The empirical findings show that there exists a positive and significant effect of trade credit on SMEs’ on-the-job training, both in terms of training incidence and duration. However, this effect is more significant with respect to the training of newly recruited workers, not existing workers. These results are robust to various firm-level control characteristics, unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity. The paper contributes to the finance-training nexus and human capital accumulation at the firm level.

The extant empirical literature recognises political instability and socio-economic conditions as key contributors to migration from Fiji. We propose that these, along with the broader aspects of institutional quality are fundamental determinants of out-migration from Fiji. The key objective is to assess whether broader institutional weaknesses serve as significant push factors influencing emigration decisions. To this end, we investigate the effect of institutional quality on migration flow from Fiji to major migration destination countries using the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) technique from 2002 to 2022. Controlling for source and destination countries’ income levels, population size, cultural, social, and physical distance, our findings suggest that migration flow from Fiji is significantly determined by the institutional quality indicators. Our results remain strongly robust across various econometric techniques that control for sample selection bias, zero-valued observations, and endogeneity concerns, which are addressed using Poisson instrumental variable (IV) regressions. We also support our benchmark results using sensitivity analysis from different institutional quality datasets. Hence, improving institutions and economic freedom in Fiji is key to reducing out-migration. Policy implications are discussed.

In the face of multiplicative uncertainty about the effects of a tariff on the trade balance, policymakers should err on the side of caution and use tariffs less aggressively. This important insight is illustrated in two separate cases, one where multiplicative uncertainty arises only in the pass-through from the tariff to import prices, and the other where multiplicative uncertainty is present in both the pass-through to import prices and the elasticity of the trade balance with respect to import prices.

We build a small open economy overlapping-generations model (SOE-OLG) to understand changes in the natural rate of interest in New Zealand over the period 2000–2024. We consider six drivers of the natural rate of interest: the world natural rate of interest, population growth, productivity growth, government debt levels, old-age labour force participation and longevity. We find that declining productivity growth and a lower world natural rate of interest are important for explaining the reduction in the New Zealand natural rate of interest, only partially offset by higher population growth, and to a lesser degree by increasing old-age labour force participation. The role of changes in government debt levels and longevity have been modest, with the change in these drivers over our analysis period being relatively small. Our results are based on defining the natural rate of interest as the long-run equilibrium real interest rate. In the model, the domestic natural rate of interest is equal to the world natural rate of interest plus a premium. The size of this premium reflects the difference between domestic capital stock and domestic savings, which is the net foreign position.

The economic theory of crime posits that crime rates will decrease if the expected costs of crime exceed the expected benefits. The expected costs of crime are positively correlated with the probability of apprehension and the punishment if caught. This paper tests the effect of non-custodial punishments on recidivism by exploiting a large-scale sentencing reform in New Zealand. Regression discontinuity design estimates suggest that, relative to short-term imprisonment, receiving a non-custodial sentence after the 1 October 2007 policy significantly increases first-time offenders’ recidivism rate by 8.7% after one year, 9.5% after two years, and 9.6% after five years. However, these effects largely stem from serious breaches of non-custodial sentence conditions, highlighting that administrative non-compliance, rather than substantive new criminal activity, is the primary driver of the increased recidivism.

With business studies now an option alongside traditional economics and accounting at NCEA (National Certificate of Educational Achievement) level three in New Zealand secondary schools, many students interested in business may not have taken economics before university. This study examines whether prior completion of level three NCEA economics standards is associated with greater academic success in an introductory microeconomics course at the University of Canterbury. We find that students who completed at least one level 3 economics standard score, on average, about 12 percentage points higher in the course and are about 12 percentage points less likely to fail compared to those without this background. However, after controlling for student fixed effects, the advantage shrinks considerably: students perform only about 2.5 percentage points better on university assessments that closely align with the NCEA standards they studied, and this effect is only marginally significant at the 10% level. These results suggest that the true causal impact of passing economics in high school on subsequent university performance, if anything, is likely to be small.

Fathers' involvement in childcare plays a critical role in promoting gender equality in caregiving, supporting children's development, and enhancing men's own well-being. Yet, in many countries – including New Zealand – mothers still bear a disproportionate share of childcare responsibilities, contributing to what is known as the gender care gap. This paper examines what drives variation in paternal involvement in early childcare, using data from the Growing Up in New Zealand (GUiNZ) birth cohort. We identify key factors that help and hinder fathers' engagement, such as job-related constraints, household income dynamics, and personality traits. Importantly, the analysis shows that leave-taking and daily involvement are shaped by different drivers, with, for example, conscientious fathers being more involved in daily care while simultaneously being less likely to take paternity leave. This research contributes to a more nuanced understanding of what shapes fathers' roles in caregiving, with implications for families, employers, and policymakers.