Abstract Forests are in the spotlight: they are expected to play a pivotal role in our response to society’s greatest challenges, such as the climate and biodiversity crises. Yet, the forests themselves, and the sector that manages them, face a range of interrelated threats and opportunities. Many of these are well understood, even if the solutions remain elusive. However, there are also emerging trends that are currently less widely appreciated. We report here the results of a horizon scan to identify developing issues likely to affect UK forest management within the next 50 years. These are issues that are presently under-recognized but have potential for significant impact across the sector and beyond. As the forest management sector naturally operates over long timescales, the importance of using good foresight is self-evident. We followed a tried-and-tested horizon scanning methodology involving a diverse Expert Panel to collate and prioritize a longlist of 180 issues. The top 15 issues identified are presented in the Graphical Abstract. The issues represent a diverse range of themes, within a spectrum of influences from environmental shocks and perturbations to changing political and socio-economic drivers, with complex emerging interactions between them. The most highly ranked issue was ‘Catastrophic forest ecosystem collapse’, reflecting agreement that not only is such collapse a likely prospect but it would also have huge implications across the sector and wider society. These and many of the other issues are large scale, with far-reaching implications. We must be careful to avoid inaction through being overwhelmed, or indeed to merely focus on ‘easy wins’ without considering broader ramifications. Our responses to each of the challenges and opportunities highlighted must be synergistic and coherent, involving landscape-scale planning. A more adaptive approach to forest management will be essential, encouraging continual innovation and learning. The 15 horizon scan issues presented here are a starting point on which to build further research, prompt debate and action, and develop evidence-based policy and practice. We hope that this stimulates greater recognition of how our forests and sector may need to change to be fit for the future. In some cases, these changes will need to be fundamental and momentous.

The sudden mortality of African elephants (Loxodonta africana) in Botswana and Zimbabwe in 2020 provoked considerable public interest and speculation. Poaching and malicious poisoning were excluded early on in the investigation. Other potential causes included environmental intoxication, infectious diseases, and increased habitat stress due to ongoing drought. Here we show evidence of the mortalities in Zimbabwe as fatal septicaemia associated with Bisgaard taxon 45, an unnamed close relative of Pasteurella multocida. We analyse elephant carcasses and environmental samples, and fail to find evidence of cyanobacterial or other intoxication. Post-mortem and histological findings suggest a bacterial septicaemia similar to haemorrhagic septicaemia caused by P. multocida. Biochemical tests and 16S rDNA analysis of six samples and genomic analysis of one sample confirm the presence of Bisgaard taxon 45. The genome sequence contains many of the canonical P. multocida virulence factors associated with a range of human and animal diseases, including the pmHAS gene for hyaluronidase associated with bovine haemorrhagic septicaemia. Our results demonstrate that Bisgaard taxon 45 is associated with a generalised, lethal infection and that African elephants are susceptible to opportunistically pathogenic Pasteurella species. This represents an important conservation concern for elephants in the largest remaining metapopulation of this endangered species.

We report the results of a structured expert elicitation to identify the most likely types of potential food system disruption scenarios for the UK, focusing on routes to civil unrest. We take a backcasting approach by defining as an end-point a societal event in which 1 in 2000 people have been injured in the UK, which 40% of experts rated as “Possible (20–50%)”, “More likely than not (50–80%)” or “Very likely (>80%)” over the coming decade. Over a timeframe of 50 years, this increased to 80% of experts. The experts considered two food system scenarios and ranked their plausibility of contributing to the given societal scenario. For a timescale of 10 years, the majority identified a food distribution problem as the most likely. Over a timescale of 50 years, the experts were more evenly split between the two scenarios, but over half thought the most likely route to civil unrest would be a lack of total food in the UK. However, the experts stressed that the various causes of food system disruption are interconnected and can create cascading risks, highlighting the importance of a systems approach. We encourage food system stakeholders to use these results in their risk planning and recommend future work to support prevention, preparedness, response and recovery planning.

Thousands of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) have been designated around the globe to conserve benthic habitats, following the adoption of Convention on Biodiversity Aichi Target 11 and widespread endorsement of the ‘30by30’ initiative. When designed and managed effectively, MPAs can enrich biodiversity, enhance ecosystem services and regulate stakeholder access. High quality dedicated monitoring programmes are essential to determine MPA effectiveness at the correct spatial and temporal scales; however, such programmes can be fraught with complexities and many MPAs have not yet implemented them following designation. There is, therefore, a clear need and opportunity for scientists to share and draw on collective experiences to help reduce barriers to successful MPA monitoring. This study synthesises lessons learned and challenges encountered in the English MPA monitoring programme, reflecting on solutions and future directions. Twenty-three MPA monitoring reports were reviewed and the key findings were extracted. The majority were centred around the need to consider monitoring approaches at the scale of each individual MPA, rather than adoption of generic ‘one-size-fits-all’ practices. Various challenges were found to be inherent, whilst some were prioritised for further development: MPA-scale measures of condition, fishing activity data, seabed imagery acquisition and analysis, DNA technologies, habitat mapping, and ecosystem approaches to MPA monitoring. This study highlights the benefits of strong multi-disciplinary partnerships for addressing the complex issues encountered in MPA monitoring programmes. We endorse further studies, technical advancements and a more holistic ecosystem approach to understanding human impacts on the benthos, thus optimising MPA management and positive conservation outcomes.

Viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV) is a fish disease notifiable to the World Organisation for Animal Health. The United Kingdom is currently free from VHSV, and the introduction and onward spread of this disease could cause major economic losses in aquaculture facilities. Legislation in Great Britain requires that imports of live fish for aquaculture purposes into declared disease-free areas are of equivalent disease-free status. However, conditions on fish products are less stringent, whereby eviscerated fish or fillets can be transported from areas with disease to areas declared disease-free. Market-size rainbow trout were experimentally infected with VHSV to investigate two important factors relevant for pathogen introduction and transmission: (1) VHSV shedding, quantified by daily assessment of viral titres in tank water samples, and (2) VHSV concentrations in liquid and solid processing waste. Evisceration and filleting preclinical fish, maceration, and wastewater separation processes within a facility were mimicked, and VHSV was quantified in each fraction of the wastewater. Shedding was detected 25 hr post-challenge. Levels increased daily to peak on day 5 post-challenge, with a calculated average titre of 1.35 × 103 TCID50 mL−1 kg−1 fish, 1 day before clinical signs of disease. Preclinical fish contained virus levels in their kidney, skin, and muscle >107 TCID50 g−1. The fish had significantly higher levels in the kidney, and evisceration led to higher VHSV concentrations in the waste compared to filleting. However, there was no significant difference in levels in wastewater released from the two processes after the removal of solids, even when macerated; average titres were >104 TCID50 mL−1. The quantities of VHSV from shedding and processing can be utilised when modelling transmission and undertaking more accurate risk assessments for imports and processing of commodities, with the ultimate aim of reducing the global risk of disease from international trade and processing.

Abstract Key decision-making organisations such as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) and the European Commission (EC) have started to focus on the industrial and economic implications of advanced materials (AMs). Internationally, there is a strong push for a sustainable and circular economy in which 'safety by design', recyclability and re-use will be high on the agenda. It is important material scientists, industry, and regulators consider how to work together to support the safe use of AMs. In 2021, DEFRA, HSE Science Division, NPL, UK HSA and BSI held an online workshop with industry experts, materials scientists and regulators to create a UK knowledge sharing community on the safe exploitation of AMs. This first workshop assessed the level of interest in creating an UK AM knowledge sharing community focussing on the application of safe by design for safer adoption of AMs. The participants concluded that any definition of AM related to a novel material property may be necessary but would make it difficult to use from a practical regulatory perspective. A second event is planned for early 2023 to share views on the benefits and pitfalls of the safe commercialisation of AMs; including the societal benefits that may arise and the potential obstacles to the wider adoption of these new materials. These events are being attended by organisations developing AMs, those manufacturing and using AMs, and also health and safety experts and regulators. The poster will summarise the outcomes of the two workshops.

While chemicals are vital to modern society through materials, agriculture, textiles, new technology, medicines, and consumer goods, their use is not without risks. Unfortunately, our resources seem inadequate to address the breadth of chemical challenges to the environment and human health. Therefore, it is important we use our intelligence and knowledge wisely to prepare for what lies ahead. The present study used a Delphi-style approach to horizon-scan future chemical threats that need to be considered in the setting of chemicals and environmental policy, which involved a multidisciplinary, multisectoral, and multinational panel of 25 scientists and practitioners (mainly from the United Kingdom, Europe, and other industrialized nations) in a three-stage process. Fifteen issues were shortlisted (from a nominated list of 48), considered by the panel to hold global relevance. The issues span from the need for new chemical manufacturing (including transitioning to non-fossil-fuel feedstocks); challenges from novel materials, food imports, landfills, and tire wear; and opportunities from artificial intelligence, greater data transparency, and the weight-of-evidence approach. The 15 issues can be divided into three classes: new perspectives on historic but insufficiently appreciated chemicals/issues, new or relatively new products and their associated industries, and thinking through approaches we can use to meet these challenges. Chemicals are one threat among many that influence the environment and human health, and interlinkages with wider issues such as climate change and how we mitigate these were clear in this exercise. The horizon scan highlights the value of thinking broadly and consulting widely, considering systems approaches to ensure that interventions appreciate synergies and avoid harmful trade-offs in other areas. We recommend further collaboration between researchers, industry, regulators, and policymakers to perform horizon scanning to inform policymaking, to develop our ability to meet these challenges, and especially to extend the approach to consider also concerns from countries with developing economies. Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;42:1212-1228. © 2023 Crown copyright and The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the King's Printer for Scotland.

We consider the science, policy, and implementation (science-policy-society interface) issues around the agrifood system and the UK's transition to net zero. We conclude that agrifood policy should become more targeted, and the marriage of top-down and bottom-up approaches is key to co-create a pathway that is plausible for each stakeholder.