The paper discusses an approach to a long-term forecast of river runoff changes for Russian large river basins in the first third of the XXI century caused by climate warming and social-economic changes. The approach considers runoff changes under a range of possible climate warming effects. This range is chosen by generalizing the calculation results obtained by using an ensemble of global climate models within CMIP 3 and CMIP 5 experiments for two contrasting scenarios (A2/RCP 8.5 and B1/RCP 2.6) of globally averaged air temperature rises. The approach also utilizes a method for alternative scenario for water consumption related to socio-economic changes. The obtained scenario estimates show that expected changes in the Volga and Don annual river runoff and its intra-annual distribution in the first third of this century can be relatively small, while changes in water use characteristics may be extremely negative in some scenarios, especially in the Don River basin.

During last decades, a special attention has been paid to methane emission from lakes [Bastviken et al., 2004; Wik et al., 2016 and etc.] as one of the significant sources of this important greenhouse gas to the atmosphere. However, attempts to simulate methane production and efflux at the air-water interface are scarce [Stepanenko et al., 2011; Tan et al., 2015a; Tan et al., 2015b] and models proposed so far need further validation using observation datasets. In this study, we use the 1D + numerical model LAKE [Stepanenko et al., 2011; Stepanenko et al., 2016]. The LAKE model was applied to a small subarctic lake in the Seida study site (Komi Republic, Russia) for identification of the key factors influencing the surface CH4flux and its concentration in the lake. We carried out a calibration of biogeochemical constants involving qualitative considerations of the character of biogeochemical and physical processes occurring in the lake and aiming at a satisfactory agreement with observations, performed by the University of Eastern Finland (UEF) [Lind et al., 2009; Marushchak et al., 2016]. Comparing our model calibration results to earlier studies suggest that the crucial parameter of the model – methane production rate constant (Pnew, 0) – has similar values for lakes of different types in high latitudes.

Modern human societies have accumulated considerable power to modify their environment and the earth’s system climate as the whole. The most significant environmental changes are found in the urbanized areas. This study considers coherent changes in vegetation productivity and land surface temperature (LST) around four northern West Siberian cities, namely, Tazovsky, Nadym, Noyabrsk and Megion. These cities are located in tundra, forest-tundra, northern taiga and middle taiga bioclimatic zones correspondingly. Our analysis of 15 years (2000–2014) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data revealed significantly (1.3 °C to 5.2 °C) warmer seasonally averaged LST within the urbanized territories than those of the surrounding landscapes. The magnitude of the urban LST anomaly corresponds to climates found 300–600 km to the South. In the climate change perspective, this magnitude corresponds to the expected regional warming by the middle or the end of the 21st century. Warmer urban climates, and specifically warmer upper soil layers, can support re-vegetation of the disturbed urban landscapes with more productive trees and tall shrubs. This afforestation is welcome by the migrant city population as it is more consistent with their traditional ecological knowledge. Survival of atypical, southern plant species encourages a number of initiatives and investment to introduce even broader spectrum of temperate blossoming trees and shrubs in urban landscapes. The unintended changes of the urban micro-climates in combination with knowledgeable urban planning could transform the Siberian pioneer settlements into places of belonging.

The paper provides a brief analysis of research on the impact of global climate change on human health. Using Tatarstan as an example, the paper discusses medical and demographic consequences of the extreme heat wave of the summer of 2010. Assessment of the Volga Federal District (VFD) bioclimate conducted with the help of certain biometeorological parameters allowed evaluating modern global and regional changes of weather-climatic conditions. The main emphasis was placed on spatial and temporal analysis of both the integral pathogenicity index (I) and its individual components for the district territory. In VFD, aggravating weather conditions increase from southwest to northeast. Summer months are associated with comfort weather conditions. In winter, the air temperature pathogenicity index and interdiurnal temperature fluctuations contribute the greatest to I; in summer, the role of cloudiness and humidity pathogenicity indices increases. The contribution of wind speed and interdiurnal pressure fluctuations to I is insignificant in all seasons. Analysis of the frequency distribution of I showed that comfort weather conditions (over 50 % of cases) occur in May–August, aggravating weather conditions occur in March-Appril, and harsh weather conditions in more than 50 % of cases occur in January–February and November–December. Calculation of biometeorological indices allows forecasting risk of thermal hazard under extreme meteorological conditions.

Like many other glaciers in Central Asia, Southern Inylchek glacier in the Kyrgyz Tian Shan is covered by supraglacial moraine, which drastically influences melt rates and complicates the estimation of ablation. The quantification of sub-debris melt from simple parameters is still an unsolved problem, but also essential to predict future yield from high mountains. Snow cover and glacier ice are the main water storages for the surrounding arid lowlands and a better understanding of ablation processes is the prerequisite for a sustainable water resources management. Another interesting feature of Southern Inylchek glacier is the existence of an ice dammed lake in a tributary valley, which is drained regularly by outburst floods. Improvements in predicting these floods would lower the risk potential for the downstream population. The main objectives of a group of glaciologists which participated in an expedition to the glacier in 2005 were to investigate melt rates on debris covered glacier parts and to quantify the ice flux into the glacier lake. The results of their field experiments are reported in this paper.