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Research on Financial Crisis Warning Based on Vulnerability Index

After the global financial crisis in 2008, the early warning of financial crisis has become a necessary and urgent issue. It is of great significance to analyze the factors affecting financial crisis and clarify the relationship between credit growth, housing price fluctuation, current account deficit and financial risk in order to objectively and accurately predict the degree of influence of financial risk. This paper takes 41 global economies, including developed economies and emerging economies, from 1980 to 2019 as research objects, and analyzes the early warning ability of financial vulnerability indicators such as credit growth, housing price and current account deficit in a unified framework through panel Logit model. It is found that credit is not the only important indicator to predict crisis: when housing price, current account deficit and credit are under the same research framework, housing price and current account deficit have a lot of leading information, which can predict the occurrence of financial crisis; However, as house prices and current account deficits are added to the model, the early-warning power of credit is significantly lower than that of house prices. Paying attention to house price fluctuations and current account deficits has some implications for future policy making. In view of this, we should do a good job of cross-cycle policy adjustment, persist in curbing real estate financialization and bubbles, pay close attention to the direction and extent of current account adjustment, and prudently manage related financial risks.

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Study on Corporate Governance and Default Effect of Financial Lease Debt

This paper empirically analyzes the corporate governance effect and default of financial lease debt. The results show that: (1) Financial lease debt is conducive to reducing asset substitution, expanding debt scale, optimizing debt structure, reducing corporate debt cost, extending debt maturity and adjusting corporate investment, etc., and is conducive to solving corporate agency problems. (2) The corporate governance effects of financial lease debt with different transaction types and term structures are heterogeneous. In terms of transaction types, direct financial leasing can reduce agency costs, reduce inefficient investment, and have significant corporate governance effects. Sale-leaseback can alleviate the agency problem to some extent, but it can not restrain the inefficient investment. Other financial leases do not have corporate governance effects. In terms of term structure, short-term financial leasing has stronger corporate governance effect than long-term financial leasing. In addition, through the analysis of debt default distance (DTD), this paper finds that compared with direct financial leasing, the probability and default level of debt default are higher under the impact of COVID-19. When the company's future earnings decline or cash flow fluctuation range is 15%, the sale-leaseback debt has potential default risk.

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Human Capital, Business Environment Optimization and Foreign Enterprise Innovation

Under the background that business environment optimization has become a new competitive advantage in cultivating investment and technology introduction, the influence of business environment optimization in developing countries on the innovation willingness of foreign-funded enterprises and the moderating effect of human capital of foreign-funded enterprises are investigated. The results show that: the business environment optimization reduces the willingness of foreign enterprises to carry out technological innovation, process innovation and product innovation, and the average marginal effect increases in turn; The internal mechanism is the reduction of preferential degree of foreign enterprises and the enhancement of competitive power of domestic enterprises brought about by the optimization of business environment. The human capital of foreign-funded enterprises enhances the effect of business environment optimization on their innovation willingness, and this is achieved by enhancing the preferential degree of foreign-funded enterprises, reducing the inhibition of their innovation willingness, and promoting the competitiveness of domestic enterprises by optimizing the business environment. It is further found that the introduction of foreign enterprises has a significant innovation spillover effect, and the absorption capacity of domestic enterprises has a positive regulatory effect.

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The Earnings Management Strategy of Indebted Non-Listed Firms: The Case of Italy

Design/methodology/approach: For a sample of Italian non-listed firms that file full financial statements, we conduct a cross sectional regression analysis to determine whether the managers of indebted firms complement real activity-based (REM) with accrual-based (AEM) earnings management. To model each technique, we estimate OLS regressions with robust standard errors to avoid heteroscedasticity problems.Purpose: This research analyses whether the managers of highly indebted Italian non-listed firms, financed mainly by bank-loans, are likely to undertake real activity-based earnings management (REM) and accrual-based earnings management (AEM) as complementary activities to boost the impact of earnings management (EM) on reported earnings and achieve desired earnings targets.Findings: Consistent with the extant literature, we find that indebted firms are likely to complement REM with AEM to enhance their creditworthiness. We also provide evidence that high-quality audit companies constrain neither REM nor AEM initiatives. Finally, firms suffering from financial problems are less likely to engage in either initiative as they are under greater scrutiny from lenders.Originality: The paper investigates the complementary use of accrual-based and real activity-based earnings management techniques in non-listed firms, suffering from a high pressure from lenders in the case of indebtedness.Practical implications: This research should be of interest to banks, managers, and standard setters as it highlights the earnings management strategy employed by firms with a high leverage ratio and provides evidence on the relative costs associated with each earnings management technique.

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