Abstract Using UK data, we present greater empirical detail on the puzzling firm dynamics that emerged during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We show that firm entry increased during the pandemic across several countries, and this contrasts with typical recessions where firm entry declines. Additionally, the rise in firm entry is driven by individual entrepreneurs creating companies for the first time, particularly in online retail. We find evidence that firm creation responded significantly to declines in retail footfall and that firms created during the pandemic are more likely to exit and less likely to post jobs. Overall, this implies that despite surging firm creation during the pandemic, the overall employment effect is limited. Finally, we find that the primary contributor to limited employment creation is the shift in ownership composition of new entrants during COVID.

Abstract A large share of the gender wage gap can be attributed to occupation and employer choices. If workers are not well informed about these pay differences, increasing wage transparency might alleviate the gender gap. We test this hypothesis by examining the impact of mandatory wage postings. In 2011, Austria introduced a policy that requires firms to provide a minimum wage offer in job postings. To compare the pay prospects of vacancies before and after the introduction, we predict posted wages using detailed occupation-firm cells, which explain about 75 percent of the variation in wage postings. While we estimate a substantial gender gap of 15 log points, mandatory wage postings do not affect gender sorting into better-paying occupations and firms.

The paper compares the economic effects of a national carbon tax with those of an emission trading system (ETS) between EAEU and BRICS countries over the medium term. Also included are Uzbekistan, which has observer status in the EAEU, and Turkmenistan, which is an EAEU trade and economic partner. The static computable general equilibrium model GTAP-E is employed. Targets for reducing emissions are formulated on the basis of the countries’ intermediate goals as stated in their respective submissions under the Paris Agreement. The resulting simulations show that, in terms of real GDP, an emission trading scheme would be more favorable than national taxation for countries such as Brazil, India, Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. However, for China, South Africa, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, resorting to an ETS would produce a comparatively greater reduction in GDP. Because the second group of countries has lower abatement costs than the equilibrium carbon price under an ETS, that scenario would permit those countries to reduce emissions by a greater amount and sell emission allowances. The analysis also shows which sectors would increase production after carbon regulation. A considerable increase in production and exports would occur for chemicals and for ferrous and nonferrous metals in several BRICS and EAEU countries. Although those industries are energy-intensive, the countries concerned could decrease emissions by reducing production in the energy or other sectors. These industries could benefit from potential joint comparative advantages in the context of declining demand for traditional energy sources. These findings should be valuable in devising integration policy.

The purpose of this article is to analyze how differentiation in the development of the ICT sector in terms of two kinds of indicators (for either “formative” or “characterizing” ICT) may affect a country’s or region’s economic output, a relationship which this study seeks to better understand. The research hypothesis is that the degree of impact on the economic indicators of a country’s development that is attributable to heterogeneity in the ICT sector, classified as either “formative” or “characterizing,” is not the same. To test this hypothesis, three types of models were constructed incorporating either general effects, fixed effects, or random effects. The impact on economic growth from control variables that are not directly related to the ICT sector was also tested. The results of the study indicate that the cumulative effect of a single unit increase in each of the components that make up the formative ICT factors (because of development in related components) is greater than the effect from a like increase in components that are among the characterizing ICT factors; and this different impact produces in a 7.96% increase in GRP per capita. The authors’ expectations about the positive effects of a number of factors pertaining to labor resources and capital on the value of GRP per capita were also confirmed. One advantage of the proposed theoretical approach is that it permits the range of explanatory variables to be expanded and the dependent variable to be replaced by one consistent with the goals under consideration and the corresponding tools.

The article examines the impact of countersanctions (the agri-food embargo) on the welfare of the Russian population. It employs a multi-stage econometric analysis which addresses the practical difficulties in making quantitative estimates of the effects of the countersanctions. The population was divided into three groups according to whether their welfare ranked high, medium, or low in the statistics from the twenty-third Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey. Evaluation via a multiple-choice model for clustered data indicated how the probability of belonging to one of the three classes of welfare depended upon consumer spending for goods that are subject to countersanctions. The loss of purchasing power (change in real consumer spending) that the three population groups underwent as a result of the countersanctions was then calculated. In order to do this, estimates of elasticities in domestic production of basic foods were arrived at based on a structural demand supply system. How much the food embargo contributed to consumer price increases for individual food items in 2014 was also calculated. The conclusion was that the embargo resulted in incremental price increases from 1.5 to 22 percentage points for particular goods. The population’s loss of wealth was assessed by combining the estimates of decreasing purchasing power with the estimates from the multiple choice model. Russian countersanctions enlarged the group with low welfare by a relatively minor 1.52 percent or 2.223 million people. The wealth of the medium group decreased by 1.16 percent, while the corresponding decrease for the high wealth group was an insignificant 0.36 percent.

The article analyzes factors that increase the risk that a household will fall into poverty. The analysis is based on a representative survey of households in the Leningrad Region of Russia. The survey was carried out in during August and September 2022. The method for collecting sociological information was a standardized interview conducted in person at the respondents’ place of residence. The core sample size was 1,200 households, and an additional sample of 400 low-income households was also canvassed. Regression results indicate higher than average risk of poverty for families with children, especially for families with several children and/or families with children of pre-school age; families in which no one is employed; and families that reside in rural localities. Families with a student in a secondary school for vocational education and single-parent families with children in the household have a significantly higher probability of being classified as low-income. The article maintains that poverty prevention measures would be better targeted if the household poverty threshold were adjusted in response to family composition, including the number of children and their age. Means testing should also take into account not only the mere possession of different types of assets but also their estimated market value. That change would make means testing a more reliable criterion of a family’s need for social support

Abstract China’s outsized growth has almost continually surpassed outsiders’ expectations for four decades and may continue to do so in the future. However, a key element of the growth model, heavy reliance on real estate and infrastructure construction, may finally be running into diminishing returns. This paper summarizes new city-level data on China’s real estate and infrastructure capital from 2000 to 22 and provides evidence suggesting that the growth returns to new building may be falling in some regions. At the same time, real estate investment in particular has been a significant contributing factor to the local government debt vulnerabilities. Finally, the paper presents new findings on the combined direct and indirect impact of real estate and infrastructure construction on China’s economy, which has consistently exceeded 30% of GDP in recent years.

Abstract This paper investigates the impact of agricultural trade liberalization on economic activity and political violence in emerging countries. We use data on all Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) signed between 25 low- and middle-income countries and their high-income trade partners between 1995 and 2013. We exploit the implied reduction in agricultural tariffs over time combined with variation within countries in their suitability to produce liberalized crops to find that economic activity increases differentially in affected areas. We also find strong positive effects on political violence, and present evidence consistent with both producer- and consumer-side mechanisms: violence increases differentially in more urbanized areas that are suitable to produce less labor-intensive crops as well as crops that are consumed locally. Our estimates imply that economic activity and political violence would have been around 2% and 7% lower, respectively, across countries in our sample had the PTAs not been signed.