Carbon neutrality targets are driving demand for new renewable energy generation, which in turn increases demand for flexibility resources. This paper studies the demand for and role of flexibility in two decarbonization pathways for Finland. In both pathways, highly electrified energy systems reach carbon neutrality by 2035 and full decarbonization by 2050. The high share of wind energy in the scenarios is supported by demand-side flexibility, short-term supply-side flexibility from batteries, and long-term supply-side flexibility from power-to-gas-to-power generation. Based on the results, full decarbonization is possible and carbon neutrality can be enabled by electrification, carbon neutral energy generation, and flexibility resources.

Major changes are needed in the energy system to meet the objectives of carbon neutrality and decarbonization. To identify possible bottlenecks hindering these required changes, stakeholders from various subsectors of the Finnish energy system were involved in a series of workshops, interviews, and questionnaires. In this paper, these identified bottlenecks are discussed in the case of reaching decarbonization in Finland by 2050. This paper also presents policy recommendations and other key actions to mitigate these bottlenecks.

Pakistan’s urban air pollution is among the world's worst, wreaking havoc on public health and the economy. Although the country’s environmental protection act and the climate change act recognize the dual challenges of air pollution and climate change, it lacks an integrated national strategy to manage both simultaneously. Based on simulations with the GAINS model (an integrated assessment model) through soft coupling with the EnerNEO Pakistan model (an energy-economic model), we assess the benefits of climate policies and air pollution control measures on air quality and public health for Pakistan under the baseline and alternative scenarios. Our results reveal that Pakistan's current air pollution control measures are insufficient to meet the country's air quality standards under the baseline scenario. Implementing sustainable development strategies will reduce nationwide PM2.5-related mortalities by 24% in 2050 compared to the baseline. While advanced control measures have the potential to improve air quality and human health in Pakistan, when combined with national sustainable development strategies, they have the potential to halve greenhouse gas emissions (implementing SDG 13 indicator on climate action) and save on emission control costs approximately by a quarter (0.32% of GDP) by 2050. This appears to be a significant co-benefit in terms of air quality (environmental), health (social), and cost (economic), implying that Pakistan's future policymaking should prioritize cost-effective co-control of air pollution and greenhouse gases.

AbstractCountries with similar level of economic development and energy prices may show significant differences as regards energy/cap and dynamics of energy demand in relation to GDP and prices. Climate, endowment in natural resources and geography are obviously discriminating factors. Policies and cultural habits also, through technology choices and social behaviour orientations. This chapter helps to better understand which are the actual drivers of energy demand and how they play. It proposes first an overview of the issue: the actual needs behind energy demand, the specific role of actors and social forces in the energy dynamics and its timing and so on. It then discusses in greater depth the critical aspects of energy demand in the three consuming macro-sectors: industry, transport and buildings. Finally, the determinants of increasing electrification are discussed.

In this paper, we present a comprehensive, multi-timescale approach to evaluate energy transition policies aiming at fully renewable generation in power systems of non-interconnected areas, typically islands or remote regions. The approach links three dynamic models: (i) a capacity expansion model, ETEM-SG, proposes an investment and generation plan for typical days, up to 2030; (ii) a simplified dispatch model is used to validate the generation plan for a full year of weather data and demand variations; and (iii) a static and dynamic analysis of the power system is used to assess the stability of the new power system for rapid events such as a sudden reduction of renewable generation. The proposed three-step approach generates a cost-effective long-term investment planning that ensures the balance between supply and demand at an hourly time step and the stability of the power system at a timescale of milliseconds. The presentation is based on a case study fully described in a report [1] made with ADEME, the French Agency for Ecological Transition, for the French island of La Réunion. It shows how a reliable 100% renewable power supply is achievable by 2030, in this area.

Abstract In this paper, we present a global and multi-timescale approach for assessing energy tran- sition policies aiming at fully renewable generation in power systems of non-interconnected areas, typically islands or isolated regions. The approach links together three dynamic mod- els:(i) a capacity expansion model, ETEM-SG, proposes an investment and production plan for typical days, at the horizon 2030; (ii) a simplified dispatch model is used to validate the production plan for a full year data of weather and demand variations and; (iii) a static & dynamic power system analysis is used to assess the stability of the new power network for fast occurring events like, e.g., a sudden reduction of renewable production. The proposed three-stage approach generates a least-cost long-term investment planning that ensures a supply-demand balance at an hourly time-step and power network statibility at a few mil- lisecond time scale. The presentaion is based on a case study fully described in a report [1] made with ADEME, the French Agency for ecological transition, for the French island La R ́eunion. It shows how a reliable 100% renewable power supply is reachable by 2030, in this area.

In this paper, we develop a quantitative indicator approach including 20 indicators to measure the multiple benefits of energy efficiency (MB-EE). The MB-EEs are classified into three groups: environmental (e.g. energy savings, emissions), economic (e.g. GDP, employment), and social (health, energy poverty) aspects. We explain the methodological approach, the underlying data sources and limitations. The indicator set has been applied to 29 countries (EU28 plus Norway) for the period 2000 to 2015, proving that it allows to conduct in-depth comparisons of developments and differences across Europe. The indicator set also supports the design of well-suited energy policies by allowing to take into account, on an informed basis, more of the multiple impacts of energy efficiency.For example, our analysis of the effect of energy savings for the period 2000 to 2015 in Germany shows GHG savings of about 158 MtCO2eq., about 30,000 avoided deaths due to less air pollution, a reduction of Germany's import dependency by 5.8 percentage points and a growth of GDP by around 0.3% per year for the period 2010 to 2015) as a consequence of improved energy efficiency. To conclude, the presented approach allows to comprehensively and regularly assess policies in terms of their MB-EEs.

This paper aims at better understanding the potential future of shale gas in the light of the evolution of its wellhead production costs. Based on the most recent literature, we focus on cost data in the US to identify the structure of shale gas costs, their evolution and drivers. In particular, while the role of technology, which has led to a 25%–30% decline of unit capital costs since 2012 is emphasized, the relevance of considering additional risk factors when analyzing future costs is discussed. Further, we investigate future shale production costs on the long term by simulating contrasted supply and demand scenarios (from the authors, as well as replicated IEA scenarios) with consideration of different cost curves adjusted with the latest EIA cost data. Modelling results show costs ranging from $2.5/MMBtu to $6.0/MMBtu in 2040, with the conclusion that shale production costs are expected to remain relatively moderate until 2040, whereby the role of technological progress is deemed to be crucial. The paper finally assesses the key determining factors explaining the current gap in shale gas production costs between the US and other world regions.

Decarbonisation of energy systems requires deep structural change. The purpose of this research was to analyse the rates of change taking place in the energy systems of the European Union (EU), in the light of the EU's climate change mitigation objectives. Trends on indicators such as energy intensity and carbon intensity of energy were compared with decadal benchmarks derived from deep decarbonisation scenarios for the electricity, residential, transport, and industry sectors. The methodology applied provides a useful and informative approach to tracking decarbonisation of energy systems. The results show that the EU has made significant progress in decarbonising its energy systems. On a number of indicators assessed the results show that a significant acceleration from historical levels is required in order to reach the rates of change seen on the future benchmarks for deep decarbonisation. The methodology applied provides an example of how the research community and international organisations could complement the transparency mechanism developed by the Paris Agreement on climate change, to improve understanding of progress toward low-carbon energy systems.

ABSTRACTThe use of shale gas is commonly considered as a low-cost option for meeting ambitious climate policy targets. This article explores global and country-specific effects of increasing global shale gas exploitation on the energy markets, on greenhouse gas emissions, and on mitigation costs. The global techno-economic partial equilibrium model POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems) is employed to compare policies which limit global warming to 2°C and baseline scenarios when the availability of shale gas is either high or low. According to the simulation results, a high availability of shale gas has rather small effects on the costs of meeting climate targets in the medium and long term. In the long term, a higher availability of shale gas increases baseline emissions of greenhouse gases for most countries and for the world, and leads to higher compliance costs for most, but not all, countries. Allowing for global trading of emission certificates does not alter these general results. In sum, these findings cast doubt on shale gas’s potential as a low-cost option for meeting ambitious global climate targets.POLICY RELEVANCEMany countries with a large shale gas resource base consider the expansion of local shale gas extraction as an option to reduce their GHG emissions. The findings in this article imply that a higher availability of shale gas in these countries might actually increase emissions and mitigation costs for these countries and also for the world. An increase in shale gas extraction may spur a switch from coal to gas electricity generation, thus lowering emissions. At the global level and for many countries, though, this effect is more than offset by a crowding out of renewable and nuclear energy carriers, and by lower energy prices, leading to higher emissions and higher mitigation costs in turn. These findings would warrant a re-evaluation of the climate strategy in most countries relying on the exploitation of shale gas to meet their climate targets.