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Hezbollah: Before and after the Syrian War

Hezbollah combat forces joined the Syrian Civil War in 2012 in alliance with the Assad regime. This Hezbollah action increased geopolitical uncertainties in the Levant and created a potentially existential crisis for Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah emerged in 1982 as a Shiite terrorist organization and an ideological Shiite proxy for Iran. During the next ten years, Hezbollah evolved into a complex institution; Hezbollah became a major political force in Lebanon and emerged as a powerful non-state military force in the region. Open-literature peer-reviewed documents and vetted media reports provide event and timeline evidence of consistent adaptive behavior patterns by Hezbollah. Hezbollah has three inherent weaknesses that constrain the Hezbollah political potential: Hezbollah depends on Iran for money, weapons, and training resources. Virtually all of this Iranian support flows through a Syrian logistics channel. Shiite Hezbollah is a minority political faction within Lebanon. Hezbollah and the Assad regime are part of an Iranian geostrategic scheme to establish a “Shiite arc of influence” from Iran across Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. The Sunni community, led by Saudi Arabia, opposes the Iranian move to be the dominant power in the Middle East. The Shiite and Sunni factions moved from a political dual to open sectarian warfare conducted by Shiite and Sunni proxy forces in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. Although Hezbollah effectively intervened to rescue the Assad regime from a successful rebel conquest, there are negative political, material, and social consequences to Hezbollah for the intervention in the Syrian War. These problems will persist into the longer term for Hezbollah.

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