As ocean temperatures rise, species distributions are tracking towards historically cooler regions in line with their thermal affinity. However, different responses of species to warming and changed species interactions make predicting biodiversity redistribution and relative abundance a challenge. Here, we use three decades of fish and plankton survey data to assess how warming changes the relative dominance of warm-affinity and cold-affinity species. Regions with stable temperatures (for example, the Northeast Pacific and Gulf of Mexico) show little change in dominance structure, while areas with warming (for example, the North Atlantic) see strong shifts towards warm-water species dominance. Importantly, communities whose species pools had diverse thermal affinities and a narrower range of thermal tolerance showed greater sensitivity, as anticipated from simulations. The composition of fish communities changed less than expected in regions with strong temperature depth gradients. There, species track temperatures by moving deeper, rather than horizontally, analogous to elevation shifts in land plants. Temperature thus emerges as a fundamental driver for change in marine systems, with predictable restructuring of communities in the most rapidly warming areas using metrics based on species thermal affinities. The ready and predictable dominance shifts suggest a strong prognosis of resilience to climate change for these communities.

Marine plankton have been conspicuously affected by recent climate change, responding with profound spatial relocations and shifts in the timing of their seasonal occurrence. These changes directly affect the global carbon cycle by altering the transport of organic material from the surface ocean to depth, with consequences that remain poorly understood. We investigated how distributional and abundance changes of copepods, the dominant group of zooplankton, have affected biogenic carbon cycling. We used trait-based, mechanistic models to estimate the magnitude of carbon transported downward through sinking faecal pellets, daily vertical migration and seasonal hibernation at depth. From such estimates for over 200,000 community observations in the northern North Atlantic we found carbon flux increased along the northwestern boundary of the study area and decreased in the open northern North Atlantic during the past 55 years. These changes in export were primarily associated with changes in copepod biomass, driven by shifting distributions of abundant, large-bodied species. Our findings highlight how recent climate change has affected downward carbon transport by altering copepod community structure and demonstrate how carbon fluxes through plankton communities can be mechanistically implemented in next-generation biogeochemical models with size-structured representations of zooplankton communities.

AbstractTrait‐based approaches enable comparison of community composition across multiple organism groups. Yet, little is known about the degree to which empirical trait responses found for one taxonomic group can be generalized across organisms. In this study, we investigated the spatial variability of marine community‐weighted mean traits and compared their environmental responses across multiple taxa and habitats, including pelagic zooplankton (copepods), demersal fish, and benthic infaunal invertebrates. We used extensive, spatially explicit datasets collected from scientific surveys in the North Sea and examined community composition of these groups using a trait‐based approach. In order to cover the key biological characteristics of an organism, we considered three life‐history traits (adult size, offspring size, and fecundity) and taxon‐specific feeding traits. While many of the traits co‐varied in space and notably demonstrated a south–north gradient, none of the traits showed a consistent spatial distribution across all groups. However, traits are often correlated as a result of trade‐offs. When studying spatial patterns of multiple traits variability in fish and copepods, we showed a high spatial correlation. This also applied to a lesser extent to fish and benthic infauna, whereas no correlation was found between benthic infauna and copepods. The result suggested a decoupling in the community traits between strictly benthic and strictly pelagic species. The strongest drivers of spatial variability for many community traits are the gradients in temperature seasonality, primary productivity, fishing effort, and depth. Spatial variability in benthic traits also co‐varied with descriptors of the seabed habitat. Overall, results showed that trait responses to environmental gradients cannot be generalized across organism groups, pointing toward potential complex responses of multi‐taxa communities to environmental changes and highlighting the need for cross‐habitat multi‐trait analyses to foresee how environmental change will affect community structure and biodiversity at large.

AbstractAimOne of the primary characteristics that determines the structure and function of marine food webs is the utilization and prominence of energy‐rich lipids. The biogeographical pattern of lipids throughout the ocean delineates the marine “lipidscape,” which supports lipid‐rich fish, mammal, and seabird communities. While the importance of lipids is well appreciated, there are no synoptic measurements or biogeographical estimates of the marine lipidscape. Productive lipid‐rich food webs in the pelagic ocean depend on the critical diapause stage of large pelagic copepods, which integrate lipid production from phytoplankton, concentrating it in space and time, and making it available to upper trophic levels as particularly energy‐rich wax esters. As an important first step towards mapping the marine lipidscape, we compared four different modelling approaches of copepodid diapause, each representing different underlying hypotheses, and evaluated them against global datasets.LocationGlobal Ocean.TaxonCopepoda.MethodsThrough a series of global model runs and data comparisons, we demonstrated the potential for regional studies to be extended to estimate global biogeographical patterns of diapause. We compared four modelling approaches each designed from a different perspective: life history, physiology, trait‐based community ecology, and empirical relationships. We compared the resulting biogeographical patterns and evaluated the model results against global measurements of copepodid diapause.ResultsModels were able to resolve more than just the latitudinal pattern of diapause (i.e. increased diapause prevalence near the poles), but to also pick up a diversity of regions where diapause occurs, such as coastal upwelling zones and seasonal seas. The life history model provided the best match to global observations. The predicted global biogeographical patterns, combined with carbon flux estimates, suggested a lower bound of 0.031–0.25 Pg C yr−1 of downward flux associated with copepodid diapause.Main conclusionsResults indicated a promising path forward for representing a detailed biogeography of the marine lipidscape and its associated carbon flux in global ecosystem and climate models. While complex models may offer advantages in terms of reproducing details of community structure, simpler theoretically based models appeared to best reproduce broad‐scale biogeographical patterns and showed the best correlation with observed biogeographical patterns.

Clear, accessible, objective metrics of species status are critical to communicate the state of biodiversity and to measure progress towards biodiversity targets. However, the population data underpinning current species status metrics is often highly skewed towards particular taxonomic groups such as birds, butterflies and mammals, primarily due to the restricted availability of high quality population data. A synoptic overview of the state of biodiversity requires sampling from a broader range of taxonomic groups. Incorporating data from a wide range of monitoring and analysis methods and considering more than one measure of species status are possible ways to achieve this.Here, we utilise measures of species’ population change and extinction risk to develop three species status metrics, a Categorical Change metric, a Species Index and a Red List metric, and populate them with a wide range of data sources from the UK, covering thousands of species from across taxonomy. The species status metrics reiterate the commonly reported decline in freshwater and terrestrial species’ status in the UK in recent decades and give little evidence that this rate of decline has slowed.The utility of species status metrics is further improved if we can extrapolate beyond the species sampled to infer the status of the community. For the freshwater and terrestrial species status metrics presented here we can do this with some confidence. Nevertheless, despite the range and number of species contributing to the species metrics, significant taxonomic bias remained and we report weighting options that could help control for this.The three metrics developed were used in the State of Nature 2016 report and indications are they reached a large number of audience members. We suggest options to improve the design and communication of these and similar metrics in the future.

The removal of thousands of structures associated with oil and gas development from the world's oceans is well underway, yet the environmental impacts of this decommissioning practice remain unknown. Similar impacts will be associated with the eventual removal of offshore wind turbines. We conducted a global survey of environmental experts to guide best decommissioning practices in the North Sea, a region with a substantial removal burden. In contrast to current regulations, 94.7% of experts (36 out of 38) agreed that a more flexible case‐by‐case approach to decommissioning could benefit the North Sea environment. Partial removal options were considered to deliver better environmental outcomes than complete removal for platforms, but both approaches were equally supported for wind turbines. Key considerations identified for decommissioning were biodiversity enhancement, provision of reef habitat, and protection from bottom trawling, all of which are negatively affected by complete removal. We provide recommendations to guide the revision of offshore decommissioning policy, including a temporary suspension of obligatory removal.

Species richness is greater in places where the number of potential niches is high. Consequently, the niche may be fundamental for understanding the arrangement of life and especially, the establishment and maintenance of the well-known Latitudinal Biodiversity Gradient (LBG). However, not all potential niches may be occupied fully in a habitat, as measured by niche vacancy/saturation. Here, we theoretically reconstruct oceanic biodiversity and analyse modeled and observed data together to examine patterns in niche saturation (i.e. the ratio between observed and theoretical biodiversity of a given taxon) for several taxonomic groups. Our results led us to hypothesize that the arrangement of marine life is constrained by the distribution of the maximal number of species’ niches available, which represents a fundamental mathematical limit to the number of species that can co-exist locally. We liken this arrangement to a type of chessboard where each square on the board is a geographic area, itself comprising a distinct number of sub-squares (species’ niches). Each sub-square on the chessboard can accept a unique species of a given ecological guild, whose occurrence is determined by speciation/extinction. Because of the interaction between the thermal niche and changes in temperature, our study shows that the chessboard has more sub-squares at mid-latitudes and we suggest that many clades should exhibit a LBG because their probability of emergence should be higher in the tropics where more niches are available. Our work reveals that each taxonomic group has its own unique chessboard and that global niche saturation increases when organismal complexity decreases. As a result, the mathematical influence of the chessboard is likely to be more prominent for taxonomic groups with low (e.g. plankton) than great (e.g. mammals) biocomplexity. Our study therefore reveals the complex interplay between a fundamental mathematical constraint on biodiversity resulting from the interaction between the species’ ecological niche and fluctuations in the environmental regime (here, temperature), which has a predictable component and a stochastic-like biological influence (diversification rates, origination and clade age) that may alter or blur the former.

In 2014–5 the UK NERC sponsored an 18 month long Shelf Sea Biogeochemistry research programme which collected over 1500 nutrient and carbonate system samples across the NW European Continental shelf, one of the largest continental shelves on the planet. This involved the cooperation of 10 different Institutes and Universities, using 6 different vessels. Additional carbon dioxide (CO2) data were obtained from the underway systems on three of the research vessels. Here, we present and discuss these data across 9 ecohydrodynamic regions, adapted from those used by the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). We observed strong seasonal and regional variability in carbonate chemistry around the shelf in relation to nutrient biogeochemistry. Whilst salinity increased (and alkalinity decreased) out from the near-shore coastal waters offshore throughout the year nutrient concentrations varied with season. Spatial and seasonal variations in the ratio of DIC to nitrate concentration were seen that could impact carbon cycling. A decrease in nutrient concentrations and a pronounced under-saturation of surface pCO2 was evident in the spring in most regions, especially in the Celtic Sea. This decrease was less pronounced in Liverpool Bay and to the North of Scotland, where nutrient concentrations remained measurable throughout the year. The near-shore and relatively shallow ecosystems such as the eastern English Channel and southern North Sea were associated with a thermally driven increase in pCO2 to above atmospheric levels in summer and an associated decrease in pH. Non-thermal processes (such as mixing and the remineralisation of organic material) dominated in winter in most regions but especially in the northwest of Scotland and in Liverpool Bay. The large database collected will improve understanding of carbonate chemistry over the North-Western European Shelf in relation to nutrient biogeochemistry, particularly in the context of climate change and ocean acidification.

The Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) uses an indicator-based approach for ecosystem assessment; indicators of the state of ecosystem components ('state indicators') are used to determine whether, or not, these ecosystem components are at ‘Good Environmental Status’ relative to prevailing oceanographic conditions. Here, it is illustrated that metrics of change in plankton communities frequently provide indications of changing prevailing oceanographic conditions. Plankton indicators can therefore provide useful diagnostic information when interpreting results and determining assessment outcomes for analyses of state indicators across the food web. They can also perform a strategic role in assessing these state indicators by influencing target setting and management measures. In addition to their primary role of assessing the state of pelagic habitats against direct anthropogenic pressures, plankton community indicators can therefore also fulfil an important 'surveillance' role for other state indicators used to formally assess biodiversity status under the MSFD.

In this review, we show how climate affects species, communities, and ecosystems, and why many responses from the species to the biome level originate from the interaction between the species' ecological niche and changes in the environmental regime in both space and time. We describe a theory that allows us to understand and predict how marine species react to climate-induced changes in ecological conditions, how communities form and are reconfigured, and so how biodiversity is arranged and may respond to climate change. Our study shows that the responses of species to climate change are therefore intelligible-that is, they have a strong deterministic component and can be predicted.