What are the perceptions of climate variability in Africa and Ethiopia?

Climate change is a global problem, which affects the various geographical regions at different levels. It is also associated with a wide range of human health problems, which pose a burden to health systems, especially in regions such as Africa. Indeed, across the African continent public health systems are under severe pressure, partly due to their fragile socioeconomic conditions. This paper reports on a cross-sectional study in six African countries (Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa, Namibia, Ethiopia, and Kenya) aimed at assessing their vulnerabilities to climate change, focusing on its impacts on human health. The study evaluated the levels of information, knowledge, and perceptions of public health professionals. It also examined the health systems’ preparedness to cope with these health hazards, the available resources, and those needed to build resilience to the country’s vulnerable population, as perceived by health professionals. The results revealed that 63.1% of the total respondents reported that climate change had been extensively experienced in the past years, while 32% claimed that the sampled countries had experienced them to some extent. Nigerian respondents recorded the highest levels (67.7%), followed by Kenya with 66.6%. South Africa had the lowest level of impact as perceived by the respondents (50.0%) when compared with the other sampled countries. All respondents from Ghana and Namibia reported that health problems caused by climate change are common in the two countries. As perceived by the health professionals, the inadequate resources reiterate the need for infrastructural resources, medical equipment, emergency response resources, and technical support. The study’s recommendations include the need to improve current policies at all levels (i.e., national, regional, and local) on climate change and public health and to strengthen health professionals’ skills. Improving the basic knowledge of health institutions to better respond to a changing climate is also recommended. The study provides valuable insights which may be helpful to other nations in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Purpose Literature contends that not much is known about smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate variability and the impacts thereof on agricultural practices in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Africa in particular. The purpose of this study is to examine the perceptions of smallholder farmers from Botlokwa (a semi-arid region in South Africa) on climate variability in relation to climatological evidence. Design/methodology/approach The study area is in proximity to a meteorological station and comprises mainly rural farmers, involved in rain-fed subsistence agriculture. Focus group discussions and closed-ended questionnaires covering demographics and perceptions were administered to 125 purposely sampled farmers. To assess farmers’ perceptions of climate variability, their responses were compared with linear trend and variability of historical temperature and rainfall data (1985-2015). Descriptive statistics were used to provide insights into respondents’ perceptions. Findings About 64% of the farmers perceived climate variability that was consistent with the meteorological data, whereas 36% either held contrary observations or were unable to discern. Age, level of education, farming experience and accessibility to information influenced the likelihood of farmers to correctly perceive climate variability. No significant differences in perception based on gender were observed. This study concludes that coping and adaption strategies of over one-third of the farmers could be negatively impacted by wrong perceptions of climate variability. Originality/value This study highlights discrepancies in perceptions among farmers with similar demographic characteristics. To guarantee sustainability of the sector, intervention by government and other key stakeholders to address underlying factors responsible for observed discrepancies is recommended.

In the literature, a lot of information is available about climate change perceptions and impacts in sub-Saharan Africa. However, there is limited attention in the region to emerging initiatives, technologies and policies that are tailored to building the adaptive capacity of agricultural systems to climate change and variability. In this paper, we discuss the prospects for climate-smart agriculture technologies and enabling policies in dealing with climate change and variability at different sub-regional levels of sub-Saharan Africa to sustain farm productivity and livelihoods of agrarian communities. The review provides substantial information suggesting that without appropriate interventions, climate change and variability will affect agricultural yields, food security and add to the presently unaceptable levels of poverty in sub-Saharan Africa. Although some of them were already existing, the past decades have seen the development and promotion of climate-smart agriculture innovations such as the use of high yielding drought tolerant crop varieties, climate information services, agricultural insurance, agroforestry, water harvesting techniques, integrated soil fertility management practices, etc. In the context of climate change, this appears as a stepping up approach to sustainably improving farm productivity, rural livelihoods and adaptive capacity of farmers and production systems while contributing to mitigation. The development of regional, sub-regional and national climate change policies and plans targeted at mitigating climate change and improving adaptive capacity of the African people have also been developed to enable mainstreaming of climate-smart agriculture into agricultural development plans. Financial commitments from governments and development agencies will be crucial for improving large scale adoption of climate-smart agriculture.

Climate change is a threat to Africa, one of the most vulnerable regions to climate variability and change, due to its sensitive economies, multiple stresses, low resilience, endemic poverty, weak institutions, recurrent droughts, complex emergencies, and conflicts. Climate impacts African populations, economies, and the need for emergency resources. Climate change exacerbates undernutrition and undermines efforts to reduce poverty and the resilience of vulnerable populations, decreasing their ability to cope and adapt to negative consequences of climate change and inhibiting their economic growth, particularly in sub-Saharan countries. Recent drought-triggered famine in Somalia spurred food crises in other countries, demonstrating the consequences that may come with the increased frequency of extreme weather events. This article reviews the existing research on climate change and variability; its impacts on nutrition security in Africa, focusing on sub-Saharan Africa; and adaptation and mitigation strategies to address these challenges. This article identifies research needs in nutrition and related sectors to address the impacts that climate change will have on nutrition security in Africa and adaptation and mitigation strategies over the next 10–15 years.

BackgroundMalaria is still a disease of massive burden in Africa, also influenced by climate change. The fluctuations and trends of the temperature and precipitation are well-known determinant factors influencing the disease’s vectors and incidence rates. This study provides a concise account of malaria trends. It describes the association between average temperature and malaria incidence rates (IR) in nine sub-Saharan African countries: Nigeria, Ethiopia, South Africa, Kenya, Uganda, Ghana, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The incidence of malaria can vary both in areas where the disease is already present, and in regions where it is present in low numbers or absent. The increased vulnerability to the disease under increasing average temperatures and humidity is due to the new optimal level for vector breeding in areas where vector populations and transmission are low, and populations are sensitive due to low acquired immunity.MethodsA second source trend analysis was carried out of malaria cases and incidence rates (the number of new malaria cases per 1000 population at risk per year) with data from the World Health Organization (WHO) and average annual mean temperature from 2000 to 2018 from the World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP). Additionally, descriptive epidemiological methods were used to describe the development and trends in the selected countries. Furthermore, MS Excel was chosen for data analysis and visualization.ResultsFindings obtained from this article align with the recent literature, highlighting a declining trend (20–80%) of malaria IR (incidence rate) from 2000 to 2018. However, malaria IR varies considerably, with high values in Uganda, Mozambique, Nigeria and Zambia, moderate values in Ghana, Zimbabwe, and Kenya, and low values in South Africa and Ethiopia in 2018. Evidence suggests varying IRs after average temperature fluctuations in several countries (e.g., Zimbabwe, Ethiopia). Also, an inverse temperature-IR relationship occurs, the sharp decrease of IR during 2012–2014 and 2000–2003, respectively, occurred with increasing average temperatures in Ghana and Nigeria. The decreasing trends and fluctuations, partly accompanying the temperature, should result from the intervention programmes and rainfall variability. The vulnerability and changing climate could arrest the recent trends of falling IR.ConclusionThus, malaria is still a crucial public health issue in sub-Saharan Africa, although a robust decreasing IR occurred in most studied countries.

Increasing climate variability and extreme weather conditions along with declining trends in both rainfall and temperature represent major risk factors affecting agricultural production and food security in many regions of the world. The rangelands of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia in the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions, yet have substantially increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. We identify regions where substantial rainfall decrease between two periods interrupted by the 1998 El Nino event (1981–2012) in the East African Horn is coupled with human population density increases. Vegetation in this region is characterized by a variable mosaic of land covers, generally dominated by grasslands necessary for agro-pastoralism, interspersed by woody vegetation. Recent assessments indicate that vegetation degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using AVHRR and MODIS vegetation products from 1981 to 2012, we observe changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade across the East African Horn. We observe vegetation browning trends in areas experiencing reduced main-growing season precipitation; these areas are also concurrently experiencing increasing population pressures. We also found that the drying precipitation patterns only partially statistically explain the vegetation browning trends, indicating that other factors such as population pressures and land use changes might be responsible for the observed declining vegetation condition. Furthermore, we show that the general vegetation browning trends persist even during years with normal rainfall conditions such as 2012, pointing to potential long-term degradation of rangelands on which approximately 10 million people depend. These findings may have implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting as well as for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected to continue increasing against a backdrop of drying climate trends and increased climatic variability.

Food security in developing regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa is a top priority in global development discourse, as evidenced in Sustainable Development Goal 2. Yet, high climate vulnerability poses serious challenges to food security in Africa even though the literature is inconclusive. Using data from 40 selected Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 2000 to 2021, this paper investigates the extent to which climate variability affects food security in SSA. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is used to construct a food security index derived from its four dimensions (availability, accessibility, utilization, and stability). The proxies for climate variability included precipitation, temperature, and CO2 emissions. The Panel Corrected Standard Error (PCSE) technique, which takes into account the cross-sectional dependency, serial correlation, and heteroscedasticity, was employed. The empirical results show that precipitation and CO2 emissions influence food security positively, while the association between temperature and food security is negative. Indeed, achieving food security in Africa requires robust and feasible policies capable of mitigating climate vulnerability and impacts on the continent.

Communities in the dryland systems of East Africa regularly suffer from the devastating impacts of climate variability and change, commonly manifested through torrential floods and recurrent droughts. More than 50% of the natural disasters recorded in East African region have occurred during the past decade affecting nearly 30 million people. For instance, in Ethiopia as recently as 2017, more than 5.6 million people were categorized as being in either crisis or emergency situations and requiring urgent humanitarian assistance (WFP, 2017). Such communities, already struggling to cope with the impacts of unpredictable weather, will face a daunting task in adapting to future climate change unless they adapt improved landscape management practices.

The main purpose of the paper is to espouse the policy promptings of climate change and food security-based researches that would lend appropriate solutions to avert the risks of food insecurity, due to climate variability and change in Ghana and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Design and methodological approach used a systematic review of preponderantly existing research findings. The paper discussed within the context of systematic discourse analysis, policy research uptake dynamics for food production and climate variability and change in SSA. The results indicated that the threats of adverse impacts of climate change are expected to be higher on Sub-Saharan Africa’s food systems, notwithstanding, little effort is given to the implementation of policy recommendation by sub-Saharan African countries’ agriculture sectors. This paper further argues broadly that there is still growing levels of policy implementation ambivalence towards the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goal 13, which enjoins nations to take immediate action to combat climate change through the institutionalization of sustainable adaptation and mitigation strategies, among many Sub-Saharan African countries. Government departments of food and agriculture, as well as meteorological agencies, require proactive inter-sectorial responses and collaboration to address the scourge of climate variability and change in Ghana and sub-Saharan Africa. The paper recommends prompt and dispassionate implementation of climate change policies, as an imperative need for sustainable food production systems, in response to changing climatic patterns in sub-Saharan Africa.

An extensive social science literature has examined the effects of climate change on human migration. Prior studies have focused largely on the out-migration of working-age adults or entire households, with less attention to migration among younger and older individuals. In this study, we focus on the implications of climate variability for the movement of children by examining the association between climate exposures and the in- and out-fostering of children in sub-Saharan Africa. We link high-resolution temperature and precipitation records to data from the Demographic and Health Surveys for 26 sub-Saharan African countries. We fit a series of regression models to measure the overall associations between climate exposures and each outcome, and then evaluate whether these associations are moderated by socioeconomic status, the number of children in the household, and the prevalence of fostering in each country. We find that precipitation is positively associated with in-fostering overall, and that effects are especially strong among households who already have at least one child and in countries where child fostering is common. We find no overall relationship between either temperature or precipitation exposures and out-fostering, but we do detect significant effects among households with many children and those with more-educated heads. Overall, this study demonstrates that new attention to the links between climate variability, child fostering, and other understudied forms of spatial mobility is needed to fully understand the effects of climate change on human populations.