Zoonoses in a changing world.

Abstract

Animals are continuously exposed to pathogens but rarely get infected, because pathogens must overcome barriers to establish successful infections. Ongoing planetary changes affect factors relevant for such infections, such as pathogen pressure and pathogen exposure. The replacement of wildlife with domestic animals shrinks the original host reservoirs, whereas expanding agricultural frontiers lead to increased contact between natural and altered ecosystems, increasing pathogen exposure and reducing the area where the original hosts can live. Climate change alters species' distributions and phenology, pathogens included, resulting in exposure to pathogens that have colonized or recolonized new areas. Globalization leads to unwilling movement of and exposure to pathogens. Because people and domestic animals are overdominant planetwide, there is increased selective pressure for pathogens to infect them. Nature conservation measures can slow down but not fully prevent spillovers. Additional and enhanced surveillance methods in potential spillover hotspots should improve early detection and allow swifter responses to emerging outbreaks.