Zmiany ludnościowe jako determinanta w polityce przyszłości na przykładzie Unii Europejskiej i Organizacji Paktu Północnoatlantyckiego

Abstract

Population Changes as a D eterminant in the Politics of the Future on the Example of the European Union and North Atlantic Pact Organization Contemporary analyses of the international reality allow it to be seen as more and more complex. Globalization, new wars and failed states are examples of challenges faced by individual actors and the entire international community. The interdependence of phenomena in their global scope necessitates the creation of international coalitions of states and organizations as part of creating resourcesin the global management of these problems. The steady growth of China’s power and the prospect of a return to global competition between superpowers complicates this picture even more. Heads of state and international organizations set ambitious goals for their organizations in the face of emergingchallenges. They assume the strengthening of unity, adaptation to the changing international reality and expansion of resources. Plans to meet the challenges of the present, go together with a demographic determinant. The low birth rate associated with the aging of the population is likely to increase social benefits in the general budget balance of countries. The article aims to analyze the development of the situation of EU and NATO countries from the perspective of the demographic challenges that they and the whole world will face in the first half of the 21st century. The text will take into account both the presentation of demographic changes from the past and in the present in the theoretical (Malthusianism, Neo-Malthusianism) and practical (population policy) dimensions.