ZERO-INFLATED NEGATIVE BINOMIAL MODELING IN INFANT DEATH CASE DUE TO PNEUMONIA IN EAST JAVA PROVINCE

Abstract

Pneumonia is an acute infectious disease of the respiratory tract and an infection caused by a virus, bacteria or fungus that attacks the lung tissue. Several cases of pneumonia have resulted in deaths that occurred in toddlers aged 12-59 months. Based on official health in profile data, East Java's health in 2021 has a zero number of deaths under five aged 12-59 months due to pneumonia. Modeling data with many response variables is zero and there is overdispersion can be done using Zero Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) regression. This study aims to model the number of infant deaths aged 12-59 months due to pneumonia in East Java Province based on seven factors that are considered to influence the number of deaths in infants due to pneumonia. From this model, it can be seen that the factors that significantly influence the death of infants aged 12-59 months due to pneumonia in East Java Province using Zero Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) regression. The results of testing the parameters of the ZINB regression model show that the predictor variables that have a partial significant effect on the negative binomial model in East Java are the percentage of infants who received complete basic immunization, the percentage of coverage of under-five health services, the percentage of under-five children with malnutrition, the percentage of LBW (low birth weight babies). Selection of the best model is obtained by using the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) of 101,587.