Zeitenwende One Year On

Abstract

In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a Zeitenwende, or historical turning point, for German foreign and defence policy. Expectations of profound German geopolitical, geostrategic and geo-economic transformation were raised both in Germany and among Berlin’s allies. One year later, Germany’s greatest success has come in the geo-economic arena, where progress has been made to reduce Germany’s energy imports from Russia. Geopolitically, the picture is less convincing. While Scholz has committed to the defence of NATO territory against potential Russian aggression, it is not obvious whether the German government really perceives Russia as a direct threat to the country. Berlin has yet to formulate a convincing geopolitical leadership role in Europe, and it remains to be seen if the new defence minister, Boris Pistorius, will succeed in giving shape to much-needed Bundeswehr reform and resolve major readiness and procurement challenges. Consistent pressure from NATO allies will be needed to help bring about major change to Germany’s strategic and defence policy.