Zehn Gebote zum Umgang mit Konjunkturprognosen

Abstract

The paper discusses the reasons for the low reputation of business cycle forecasts in Germany. We argue that the reasons do not rely exclusively on the supply side of the market, i.e. the accused low quality of the forecasts, but also on the demand side of the market, i.e. the misinformed and naive use of the forecasts by politicians, journalists and other customers. Hence, we formulate „10 commandments“, which an informed user should keep in mind when reading business cycles forecasts.