Zatrudnienie w województwach Polski w 2020 roku – pierwszy rok pandemii

Abstract

Objective: The aim of the paper is to evaluate the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the employment level, gender-wise, in Poland’s provinces. Research Design & Methods: The “triple 2’s” method is used to estimate the tendencies in the employment level observed until 2019, which are compared with the real values in 2020. Forecasts are calculated with trend function, autoregression models and simple dynamic indices. Forecasting errors are standardised by standard error of estimation. Findings: The dynamics of the total employment in Poland’s provinces as well as employment dynamics in groups of sections are analysed. The following groups of economic activity are considered: 1) agriculture, forestry, hunting, fishery, 2) industry and construction, 3) trade; automotive services; transport, warehouse management; accommodation, gastronomy; information and communication, 4) finance, insurance; real estate, 5) and other services. The number of employees is expressed per population in productive age (18–64 for men, and 18–59 for women). Changes observed in 2020 are compared to forecasts from trends estimated for 2013–2019 period. Implications / Recommendations: The “triple 2’s” method makes it possible to identify interventions in employment time series. The labour market’s reaction to the pandemic differed by province and group of economic activity sections. In half of provinces, employment varied among both men and women. In three provinces (Lubelskie, Podlaskie, Zachodniopomorskie) the women’s rates varied significantly less while in two (Mazowieckie, Pomorskie), no impact was revealed. Interestingly, in some cases the interventions were positive. Contribution: First analysis in such design plus modification of “triple 2’s” rule. Identification of changes in the dynamics of the total employment rate, by gender, and by section group in the first year of the pandemic.