Youths’ Employment Vulnerability amidst a Lingering Crisis: Evidence from the Middle East

Abstract

This study estimates the impacts of the lingering COVID crisis on workers’ outcomes in four Middle East and North African (MENA) countries –Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia– using panel microdata from ERF COVID-19 MENA Monitors (February ‘20-September ‘21). Workers’ employment statuses were assessed using transition matrices and multinomial logistic models with quasi fixed effects. We confirm that strict COVID regulatory regimes have negative effects on employment outcomes of most groups of workers, but the effects cannot be consistently ranked between age cohorts and genders across the four countries. In 2021, men’s employment prospects gradually improved, but women remained largely excluded from work opportunities. Youths trailed non-youths throughout the pandemic, perpetuating existing inequalities along sex and age dimensions, but also vis-à-vis workers’ socioeconomic status represented by their education and employment type.