Yields variability as a determinant of production risk in agriculture

Abstract

Agricultural activity is exposed to a number of adverse external factors known as production risks, which affect the quantity and value of production. One of the measures of production risk assessment in crops production is yields variability. The aim of the study is to determine the scope of the variability of the yields of selected agricultural crops on the basis of various sources of data covering the years 2015–2019. The study uses aggregated official statistics data compiled by Statistics Poland, published in the Statistical Yearbook of Agriculture, and individual data from the Polish Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN), which takes into account commercial farms. The analysis of the differences in crops variability determined on the basis of different sources of information was carried out using basic statistical parameters: the arithmetic mean, standard deviation and the coefficient of variation. The research shows that the variability of yields in Poland depends not only on the type of crops, but also on the location of the production. Moreover, it indicates a greater stability of crops production among commercial farms when compared with farms in general. The comparison of the values of the coefficient of variation calculated from individual data with the values calculated on the basis of the average yields indicates fundamental differences which should be taken into account when applying the variation coefficient to assess production risk and, consequently, to optimise insurance tools.