Abstract
The North-West (NW) region of Bangladesh is pivotal for the country’s agricultural development, mainly in producing irrigated Boro rice. However, increasing cost of irrigation water, fertilizers, labour and other inputs, and the spatio-temporal variation in actual yield, market price and profitability of rice, have added uncertainty to the sustainability of Boro rice cultivation. In this study, we evaluated the productivity, profitability, and prospect of Boro rice production using comprehensive field data collected directly from 420 farmers’ fields over two consecutive seasons (2015–16 and 2016–17), across seven geographically distributed locations in the NW region. We also analyzed the risk and return trade of popular Boro rice cultivars using Monte-Carlo simulation. The results show that there were significant (p≤0.05) variations in rice yield between sites, irrigation pump-types, and rice varieties, with Hybrid rice and BRRI dhan29 producing highest yields (6.0–7.5 t/ha). Due to different pricing systems, the cost of irrigation water varied from site to site and from year to year, but always comprised the highest input cost (20–25% of total production). The total paid-out cost, gross benefit, and gross income of rice significantly (p≤0.05) differed between sites, type of irrigation pumps, rice varieties, transplanting dates, and two cropping years. The variations in observed yield and profitability reveal considerable scope to improve rice production systems. Market variation in the price of rice affected overall profitability significantly. Probability and risk analysis results show that Minikit and BRRI dhan29 are the most stable varieties for yield and profitability. Hybrid rice, which has the maximum attainable yield among the cultivated rice varieties, also has the risk of negative net income. Based on the analysis, we discussed ways to improve yield and profitability and the prospect of Boro rice cultivation in the region. The study provides valuable information for policy-makers to sustain irrigated rice cultivation in both the NW region and nationally.
Highlights
Rice is the predominant crop in the Asia-Pacific region
This study provides a detailed determination of the state of irrigated Boro rice cultivation, based on intensive field observations conducted during two consecutive seasons (2015–16, and 2016–17) in 420 fields (235 in 2015–16 and 185 in 2016–17) across 7 locations in the NW region of Bangladesh
The majority of the fields in Thakurgaon were under Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) dhan29, which has high attainable yield [52] with long growth duration
Summary
Rice is the predominant crop in the Asia-Pacific region. The region produces and consumes over 90 percent of the world’s rice [1, 2]. Rice cultivation is the dependable source for employment and income for millions of households [3]. In recent years, overall profitability has been reducing due to rising input prices and the increasing cost of labour discouraging rice production [4]. Reducing income volatility and increasing profitability is an important step to increase social welfare and sustainability of rice production [5]. Yield is intricately linked with profitability, and yield gains have helped keep rice cultivation profitable, especially after 2005 in Bangladesh [6]
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