Yellow fever: ecology, epidemiology, and role in the collapse of the Classic lowland Maya civilization.

Abstract

Mystery has long surrounded the collapse of the Classic lowland Mayan civilization of the Peten region in Guatemala. Recent population reconstructions derived from archaeological evidence from the central lowlands show population declines from urban levels of between 2.5 and 3.5 million to around 536,000 in the two hundred year interval between 800 A.D. and 1000 A.D., the period known as the Classic Maya Collapse. A steady, but lesser rate of population decline continued until the time of European contact. When knowledge of the ecology and epidemiology of yellow fever and its known mosquito vectors are compared with what is known of the ecological conditions of lowland Guatemala as modified by the Classic Maya, provocative similarities are observed. When infection and mortality patterns of more recent urban yellow fever epidemics are used as models for a possible series of Classic Maya epidemics, a correlation is noted between the modeled rate of population decline for a series of epidemics, and population decline figures reconstructed from archaeological evidence.