Yearly variation in recruitment and its effect on population dynamics in Yoldia notabilis (Mollusca: Bivalvia), analyzed using projection matrix model

Abstract

Long-term variation in recruitment was estimated by constructing projection matrices for a marine bivalve, Yoldia notabilis, at two stations in Otsuchi Bay, northeastern Japan, and the effects of its variation on population dynamics were examined using a simple matrix model. The matrix model was developed from the Leslie matrix, in which the population growth rate λ was expressed as a function of recruitment rate r0. The equilibrium recruitment rate rs, or the recruitment rate required to maintain population at constant size (λ=1), was expressed by the reciprocal of the reproductive value of a newly recruited individual. The estimates of rs for the field population were lower at the shallower station than at the deeper station, reflecting higher survivorship and fecundity. Past recruitment rate estimated both by the field samplings for 3 years and by the back-calculation from the current age structure for over 10 years showed large yearly variation, ranging between 0 and 58.6×10−4. The estimates were larger than rs, and hence, large enough to increase population size (λ>1) only in approximately one-third of the estimated years. This suggests that the population has been maintained by occasional successful recruitment occurring once every few years.