Abstract
Suicide is a serious social problem across the world. In this article we examine suicide rates in three Western countries over a longer period of time than is typically considered to determine if extended underlying patterns are discernable. Since assumptions of traditional time series analyses are likely violated with such long-term data, we have utilized Hidden Markov probability models in analyzing yearly suicide data (including birth sex) over a 60-year period across three countries (Canada, USA, and Great Britain). Apart from the expected larger numbers of suicides by males across all three countries, we uncovered two underlying states of 25.39 and 12.61 years duration within which differing trends for males and females are evident.
Highlights
The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that more than three-quarters of a million people worldwide take their own lives yearly [1]
Since assumptions of traditional time series analyses are likely violated with such long-term data, we have utilized Hidden Markov probability models in analyzing yearly suicide data over a 60-year period across three countries (Canada, USA, and Great Britain)
The graph of the raw data in Figure 1 shows the suicide rates for the three countries separated according to sex over the sixty-year time period
Summary
The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that more than three-quarters of a million people worldwide take their own lives yearly [1]. Part of the reason for such differences may be due to lower skill occupations being associated with higher job stress In support of this conjecture, Milner, Witt, LaMontagne, and Niedhammer [3] meta-analyzed 22 studies that considered job stressors and suicide and found that lower supervisor and colleague support (related to higher job stress) were related to higher suicidal outcomes. At particular times in higher social class careers, suicide rates can be associated with different kinds of stressors and high suicide rates. An example of the latter can be found in student and resident rates in medical school [4]
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