Yabancı turistlerin kullandığı ulaşım türleri ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki dinamik ilişki: Türkiye Cumhuriyeti'nin son 50 yılından kanıtlarla ekonometrik bir analiz

Abstract

This article aims to reveal the relationship between the Turkish economy and tourism, with a retrospective evaluation of the 100th anniversary of the Republic. In attempting to determine this relationship, the question is asked whether the tourism-led growth (TLG) hypothesis or the economy-led growth hypothesis through the expansion of tourism is valid based on the last 50 years of the republican period. The ARDL approach (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) investigates the interaction between variables. A cointegration relationship was found between the variables and a positive relationship between the tourists arriving by air and sea and economic growth in the long run. The Granger causality test was applied to determine the presence and direction of causality between tourists arriving in Turkey and GDP. The results show that economic growth is the Granger causality for tourist arrivals. Relating these results to the variables studied and the study period for the Turkish economy confirms the validity of the hypothesis of tourism expansion based on economic growth rather than the hypothesis of tourism-induced growth.