XGBoost Prediction Model Optimized with Bayesian for the Compressive Strength of Eco-Friendly Concrete Containing Ground Granulated Blast Furnace Slag and Recycled Coarse Aggregate

Abstract

The construction industry has witnessed a substantial increase in the demand for eco-friendly and sustainable materials. Eco-friendly concrete containing Ground Granulated Blast Furnace Slag (GGBFS) and Recycled Coarse Aggregate (RCA) is such a material, which can contribute to a reduction in waste and promote environmental sustainability. Compressive strength is a crucial parameter in evaluating the performance of concrete. However, predicting the compressive strength of concrete containing GGBFS and RCA can be challenging. This study presents a novel XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) prediction model for the compressive strength of eco-friendly concrete containing GGBFS and RCA, optimized using Bayesian optimization (BO). The model was trained on a comprehensive dataset consisting of several mix design parameters. The performance of the optimized XGBoost model was assessed using multiple evaluation metrics, including Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and coefficient of determination (R2). These metrics were calculated for both training and testing datasets to evaluate the model’s accuracy and generalization capabilities. The results demonstrated that the optimized XGBoost model outperformed other state-of-the-art machine learning models, such as Support Vector Regression (SVR), and K-nearest neighbors algorithm (KNN), in predicting the compressive strength of eco-friendly concrete containing GGBFS and RCA. An analysis using Partial Dependence Plots (PDP) was carried out to discern the influence of distinct input features on the compressive strength prediction. This PDP analysis highlighted the water-to-binder ratio, the age of the concrete, and the percentage of GGBFS used, as significant factors impacting the compressive strength of the eco-friendly concrete.