Writing the Rules to Rank the Candidates: Examining the Impact of Instant-Runoff Voting on Racial Group Turnout in San Francisco Mayoral Elections

Abstract

Instant-Runoff Voting (IRV/RCV) is a relatively new reform to the rules of voting and elections that has been adopted by several cities. The impact of IRV/RCV balloting on racial group voter turnout in urban elections has not been subject to rigorous empirical analysis. In order to evaluate the relationship between IRV/RCV and voter turnout, I analyze precinct-level racial group voter turnout rates in five San Francisco mayoral elections from 1995 to 2011. I find significant declines in turnout under IRV/RCV rules, especially among Black voters. Variation in racial group turnout is best explained by factors related to candidate race and racial group competition. In addition, I find that IRV/RCV exacerbates turnout disparities between older and younger groups in the population and between those with high education compared to those with low education.