Abstract
Oil and gas production in the Bakken region increased dramatically during the past decade. A WRF-Chem modeling study of the Northern Great Plains was conducted for a July 2010 baseline scenario prior to the largest of these production increases. Simulations using the RACM-MADE/SORGAM, CBMZ-MOSAIC, and MOZART-MOSAIC chemistry-aerosol mechanisms were compared to each other and against ground level observations. All three gas-aerosol modules produced similar prediction results for O3, and NO2, with moderate correlation to hourly measurements and monthly average values overpredicted by 20% for O3 and underpredicted by 5% for NO2. Monthly average PM2.5 concentrations were relatively accurate, but correlation to hourly measurements was very low and PM2.5 subspecies exhibited high variability with a mix of over and underpredictions depending on the mechanism. Pollutant concentrations were relatively low across the mostly rural study domain, especially in the Bakken region. Results from this work can be used as a basis of comparison for studies of more recent time periods that include increased oil and gas-related emissions.
Highlights
Oil and gas production activities have increased considerably in the United States over the last decade, which has caused increased volatile organic compound (VOC) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) air pollutant emissions [1]
These simulations include some projections of future oil and gas emissions, but may not account for all of the recent emission increases occurring in the Bakken
We provide a comparison of three WRF-Chem chemistry-aerosol modules for baseline simulations of the Northern Great Plains (NGP) in July 2010 prior to the recent oil boom
Summary
Oil and gas production activities have increased considerably in the United States over the last decade, which has caused increased volatile organic compound (VOC) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) air pollutant emissions [1]. For the modeled 2011 scenario, impacts on the Bakken region were small, consistent with lower oil and gas emissions at that time relative to other areas of the country, as oil and gas activity in North Dakota was just beginning its dramatic increase. For ND in 2020, background sources are estimated to account for 80–90% of total average peak O3 levels of 45–55 ppb These simulations include some projections of future oil and gas emissions, but may not account for all of the recent emission increases occurring in the Bakken
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