Wpływ zmiennych makroekonomicznych na dochody podatkowe: badanie empiryczne przy użyciu modelu VEC

Robert Matusiak

doi:10.17951/h.2018.52.5.39-46

Abstract

<p>Dochody podatkowe są ważną determinantą wzrostu i rozwoju gospodarczego każdego kraju. Istotne jest poznanie wpływu produktu krajowego brutto, wydatków rządowych, inwestycji, eksportu i importu na wpływy podatkowe w Polsce. Biorąc pod uwagę istotne znacznie dochodów podatków i postać danych jako kwartalne szeregi czasowe z lat 2002-2018 wybrano model VEC jako metoda badania. Badanie to ma na celu opracowanie modelu VEC z optymalnym opóźnieniem do analizy zależności między dochodami podatkowymi a produktem krajowym brutto, inwestycjami, wydatkami rządowymi, eksportem i importem.</p>

Highlights

An economy consists of close links between households, entrepreneurs and the state, such as the tax revenues that may affect this system through economic policy
Data from the first quarter of 2002 to the first quarter of 2018 were used. They referred to tax revenue (TAX), gross domestic product (GDP), government expenditure (GOV), investments (INV), exports (EX), and imports (IMP)
With the use of the Granger causality, it was possible to determine the direction of the influence of macroeconomic variables on the tax revenues in the years 2002–2018

Summary

Introduction

An economy consists of close links between households, entrepreneurs and the state, such as the tax revenues that may affect this system through economic policy. Tax policy might be viewed as an indispensable element of the economic policy of a given country for maintaining and strengthening economic growth and global competition. It provides countries with a stable predictable fiscal environment, making it possible for them to gather funds to finance their social and infrastructural needs [Romer, Romer, 2010, p. Such goals may arise from a high level of employment, stable prices, fast economic growth, a favourable balance of payments, promoting market economy, meeting collective needs, fair income distribution, promoting small businesses, encouraging entering priority sectors, fostering sustainable development of people, and supporting

Objectives

Results

Conclusion