Wpływ rosyjsko-ukraińskiej wojny na euroatlantyckie bezpieczeństwo

Abstract

Russia’s unannounced war against Ukraine has significantly changed the picture of the world and caused tectonic changes in the perception of security, as well as corresponding changes in the mechanisms of ensuring it, responding to and solving crises of various origins. The purpose of this article is to assess the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the international security system and outline the future security architecture. The article discusses changes in the inter- national security environment during the war in Ukraine. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine surprised all countries in the world and initiated changes in the existing geopolitical system. More structurally, it shattered the entire security architecture patiently built on the continent over many decades, including international commitments agreed over the last 30 years. With the invasion of Ukraine, negotiations with Russia on the Euro‑Atlantic security order are now obsolete. NATO and the EU should prepare for further Russian provocations and pos- sible escalation outside of Ukraine. First of all, EU and NATO countries need to realize that they have long been part of the Russian war: in the Russian military mentality, modern wars are no longer formally declared. The established international order will change exhaustively and for a long time. The degree of readiness of the West and China to make economic and political compromises will depend on how the balance of power develops in individual regions and sectors of the economy. The key condition for this process is not an atmosphere of no change, but rather the absence of a military threat.