Would giving priority in surgery timing to the oldest patients result in lower mortality?

Abstract

Early hip fracture surgery in elderly patients is recognized as a positive prognostic factor. When applied as an intervention, it does not always reduce overall patient mortality. A plausible explanation for this is that not all patients equally benefit from early surgery. The purpose of the study is to investigate the effect of early surgery on mortality in patients ages 80 and older. This is a retrospective cohort of 3463 patients with hip fractures, operatedupon within seven days of admission in a tertiary medical center between 2010 and 2018. Patients were divided into five groups: ages 80-84, 85-89, 90-94, 95-99, and 100 or above. Baseline characteristics were compared between groups. Mortality at one year post-operatively as a function of surgery delay was visualized for each group, using restricted spline curve analysis. Patients with increasing age were operated on earlier, had increased co-morbidities with a higher ASA score and experienced higher mortality. Spline curve analysis in younger patients, ages 80 to 94, demonstrated an inflection point at 48 hours after admission, prior to which mortality was rising rapidly and after which it continued rising slowly. In the two oldest age cohorts, there was no increased mortality with an increasing surgical delay. In patients ages 80-94 surgery on day one may be preferable to surgery on day two. In patients ages 95 and older, surgery time did not influence mortality. Pursuit of better patient outcomes may include prioritizing early surgery in younger patients.